Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Signals Near-Term Momentum Weakening Despite WMDST Undervaluation

Centene enters the next six weeks with robust cash generation and stretched leverage while short-term momentum indicators show deterioration, leaving price action poised for consolidation before fundamentals reassert. The WMDST valuation classifies the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On June 22, 2026 Centene appointed Lauren M. Tyler to the Board of Directors. On July 9, 2026 a Centene subsidiary, Meridian Health Plan of Illinois, won an Illinois Medicaid contract. On July 28, 2026 the company announced a Board retirement and related governance changes. On August 17, 2026 Centene disclosed a planned Chief Financial Officer transition.

Technical Analysis

ADX & Directional Indicators: ADX at 18.72 indicates no established trend; directional indicators show conflicting signals as DI+ and DI- display peak-and-reverse behavior, with the DI+ peak-and-reverse signaling near-term bearish pressure while the DI- peak-and-reverse implies the negative directional strength has eased. That combination points to muted directional conviction and a propensity for choppy price action.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.38 with the signal line at 0.48 and the MACD trend shows peak-and-reverse; the MACD below its signal line and the peak reversal indicate weakening bullish momentum and a bearish momentum bias near term.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 14.02 (positive) implies price sits above the target and carries measurable downside potential; the MRO peak-and-reverse further confirms declining momentum toward that target, increasing the chance of mean reversion pressure on the price.

RSI: RSI 53.9 with a peak-and-reverse trend signals a move from neutral toward distribution; momentum loss at this RSI level supports a sideways-to-downward near-term bias rather than a renewed uptrend.

Price vs. Averages and Bands: The last close at $64.70 lies near the 20-day average ($65.14) and above the 200-day average ($48.11), indicating long-term strength but short-term consolidation. Short-term EMAs and the 12-day EMA show peak-and-reverse behavior, consistent with the momentum indicators. Bollinger band lower bounds ($63.20 at 1σ) and the super-trend lower at $60.51 serve as nearby technical reference levels; subdued volume relative to multi-period averages suggests any short-term moves may lack conviction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: Operating margin registers at 2.236% and EBIT margin at 3.059%; both contracted sharply QoQ (operating margin QoQ -39.99%, EBIT margin QoQ -32.49%) and declined YoY (EBIT margin YoY -18.19%). Centene’s EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 7.683% and below the industry peer median of 4.462%, though it remains above the industry peer low of -4.917%—indicating profitability improvement remains work in progress.

Revenue & Earnings Growth: Total revenue stands at $53,579 million with revenue growth of 59.9% YoY and 15.5% QoQ, showing outsized top-line expansion. GAAP diluted EPS of $2.19 and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.51 translate to an actual EPS of $2.51 versus an estimate of $1.08, a beat of $1.43 or roughly 132.4% above estimate. The beat reflects operating leverage on higher revenues and non-recurring adjustments disclosed in the quarter.

Cash Generation & Capital Structure: Free cash flow totaled $3,416 million with a free cash flow yield of 11.49%, well above the industry peer mean of 2.071%, underscoring strong cash conversion relative to equity value. Operating cash flow reached $3,590 million. Net debt metrics show leverage elevated: debt-to-EBITDA approximately 8.3x and debt-to-equity about 0.714; interest coverage near 10.7x provides substantial coverage despite the leverage level. The balance sheet shows $24,151 million in cash and $27,057 million in cash and short-term investments, and enterprise value of about $18.77 billion versus market cap near $29.73 billion, consistent with the WMDST under-valued classification.

Returns & Efficiency: Return on equity at 4.836% sits marginally above the industry peer mean of 4.350%, while return on assets at 1.329% falls slightly below the industry peer mean of 1.579%. Asset turnover at 0.653 compares favorably with the industry peer mean of 0.417, reflecting efficient revenue generation from assets. QoQ and YoY measures of return show deterioration, signaling temporal pressure on operational efficiency despite favorable asset utilization.

Valuation Snapshot: Price-to-earnings at 23.97 with an enterprise multiple around 9.68 combined with free cash flow yield of 11.49% indicates valuation compression relative to the company’s cash generation; WMDST therefore values the stock as under-valued based on those metrics and the company’s cash flow profile.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 21.4 B
 Operating Cash Flow 3.6 B
 Capital Expenditures -174.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.1 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 2.9 B
 End Period Cash Flow 24.3 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 53.6 B
 Forward Revenue 8.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 49.0 B
 Depreciation 139.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 300.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 52.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 4.6 B
 EBITDA 1.9 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.2 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 153.0 M
 Net Interest Income -153.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.5 B
 Tax Provision 399.0 M
 Tax Rate 26.9 %
 Net Income 1.1 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.08
 EPS Actual 2.51
 EPS Difference 1.43
 EPS Surprise 132.407 %
 Forward EPS 1.33
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 83.0 B
 Intangible Assets 15.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 7.5 B
 Total Current Assets 46.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 27.1 B
 Cash 24.2 B
 Net Receivables 18.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.9 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 18.0 B
 Short-Term Debt 75.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.8 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 16.1 B
 Total Liabilities 60.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 22.6 B
 Retained Earnings 11.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 45.67
 Shares Outstanding 493.987 M
 Revenue Per-Share 108.46
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 29.7 B
 Enterprise Value 18.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 9.682
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 113.768 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -87.636 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 87.909
mean: 34.227
median: 32.178
CNC: 9.682
low: 9.161
 EV/R 0.35
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.679
 Asset To Liability 1.375
 Debt To Capital 0.417
 Debt To Assets 0.194
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.803 %
Debt To Assets YoY -4.64 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.838
mean: 0.375
median: 0.301
CNC: 0.194
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.714
Debt To Equity QoQ -6.574 %
Debt To Equity YoY 11.296 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.375
mean: 0.807
median: 0.748
CNC: 0.714
low: 0.011
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.318
Price To Book QoQ 48.748 %
Price To Book YoY 105.646 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.829
mean: 2.092
median: 1.767
CNC: 1.318
low: -0.321
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 23.974
Price To Earnings QoQ 109.344 %
Price To Earnings YoY -126.209 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 133.945
mean: 48.954
median: 45.322
CNC: 23.974
low: -16.66
 PE/G Ratio -0.939
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.555
Price To Sales QoQ 46.0 %
Price To Sales YoY 54.013 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.857
mean: 2.384
median: 1.655
CNC: 0.555
low: 0.158
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 42.333
Forward PE/G -1.659
Forward P/S 3.755
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -3.789
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.653
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.186 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 16.117 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.051
CNC: 0.653
median: 0.419
mean: 0.417
low: 0.156
 Receivables Turnover 2.857
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.361 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 28.935 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.49
mean: 3.742
median: 3.723
CNC: 2.857
low: 0.6
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 31.935
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -3.834
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -178.591 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 133.289
median: 17.698
mean: 13.096
CNC: -3.834
low: -56.959
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 9.041
 CapEx To Revenue -0.003
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.252
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 38.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 38.7 B
 Invested Capital 38.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 7.5 B
 Net Working Capital 5.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.664
 Current Ratio 1.145
Current Ratio QoQ 1.952 %
Current Ratio YoY 4.322 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.421
CNC: 1.145
mean: 1.052
median: 0.866
low: 0.846
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.306
 Cost Of Debt 0.689 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.712
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -22.367 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -2193.251 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 26.066
CNC: 10.712
mean: 6.327
median: 6.254
low: -4.266
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.095
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 35.768
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.263 %
 Revenue Growth 7.278 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 1554.091 %
Revenue Growth YoY 59.886 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 9.387 %
CNC: 7.278 %
median: 3.075 %
mean: 1.519 %
low: -4.983 %
 Earnings Growth -25.519 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -93.34 %
Earnings Growth YoY -78.298 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 108.333 %
median: 0.389 %
mean: -4.425 %
CNC: -25.519 %
low: -112.5 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 8.587 %
Gross Margin QoQ -22.834 %
Gross Margin YoY 42.028 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.512 %
mean: 28.905 %
median: 14.844 %
CNC: 8.587 %
low: 7.168 %
 EBIT Margin 3.059 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -32.487 %
EBIT Margin YoY -1818.539 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 25.559 %
mean: 7.683 %
median: 4.462 %
CNC: 3.059 %
low: -4.917 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.236 %
Return On Sales QoQ -39.989 %
Return On Sales YoY -370.375 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 23.787 %
mean: 8.646 %
median: 4.433 %
CNC: 2.236 %
low: -2.862 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 3.4 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 11.492 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -47.647 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 27.945 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA CNC: 11.492 %
high: 6.209 %
mean: 2.071 %
median: 1.947 %
low: -4.3 %
 Free Cash Growth -18.003 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -101.023 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -222.544 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 293.51 %
median: 23.352 %
mean: -17.916 %
CNC: -18.003 %
low: -438.717 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.131
 Cash Flow Margin 7.23 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.551
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.329 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.916 %
Return On Assets YoY -555.137 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.836 %
mean: 1.579 %
CNC: 1.329 %
median: 1.176 %
low: 0.129 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.879 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.048
Return On Equity QoQ -32.759 %
Return On Equity YoY -623.944 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.177
CNC: 0.048
mean: 0.043
median: 0.037
low: -0.05
 DuPont ROE 4.96 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.099 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -29.408 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -2125.49 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.881 %
mean: 3.372 %
CNC: 3.099 %
median: 2.555 %
low: -0.608 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near term, expect consolidation with a bias toward modest downside if momentum indicators continue to degrade. Mixed directional signals and ADX below 20 favor range-bound action between the mid-$60s and the low-$60s, with technical reference levels near the 1σ Bollinger lower at $63.20 and the super-trend lower at $60.51. Strong free cash flow and a lower enterprise multiple provide a fundamental backstop; however, the combination of reduced margin trends and elevated debt-to-EBITDA leaves vulnerability to downside on any renewed negative momentum. Traders should monitor MACD moving relative to its signal line and MRO movement for early confirmation of a momentum re-acceleration or further mean reversion.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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