Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc (NYSE:UVE) Signals Near-Term Pullback Amid Fundamental Strength

Universal Insurance shows operating improvement and cash-generation that support a constructive valuation, while short-term technicals point to near-term pressure and range-bound action.

Recent News

On May 28, 2026 the company completed placement of its combined 2026–2027 reinsurance program for its insurance entities, effective June 1, 2026. On June 22, 2026 a credit rating agency assigned a BBB long-term rating to newly issued senior unsecured notes while the company issued $100 million of 7.75% senior unsecured notes due 2031. On July 8, 2026 the Board declared a $0.16 per-share cash dividend payable August 7, 2026 to shareholders of record July 31, 2026.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 17.17 indicates no trend, implying limited directional conviction; that lack of a clear trend supports a near-term range and keeps valuation-driven catalysts more important for directional moves.

DI+ stands at 27.47 while trending lower, a bearish directional signal that raises the probability of short-term downward pressure relative to recent highs.

DI- at 22.77 shows a peak-and-reversal pattern (DI- retreating), a bullish internal development that counters the DI+ weakness and favors rotation rather than sustained selloff.

MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 0.66 vs signal 0.84) and declines, a bearish momentum profile that aligns with the shorter-term moving-average weakness and argues for near-term consolidation rather than breakout.

The momentum/regression oscillator reads 27.17 and positive, which indicates the price sits above the model target and therefore creates downside potential toward mean levels in the near term.

RSI at 56.4 and falling signals mild loss of buying momentum; that dynamic supports a neutral-to-bearish short-window bias until buyers re-assert above the 20-day band.

Price sits above the 200-day average ($42.91 > $35.35), supporting the longer-term bullish valuation case, while price trading just below the 20-day average ($42.91 < $43.60) signals short-term weakness and potential re-test of near support at the recorded SuperTrend lower ($41.12).

Ichimoku components place price above the Kijun-sen ($40.78) and within the cloud boundary, implying structural support that limits downside scope relative to intrinsic valuation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Operating performance shows clear improvement: EBIT equals $81,144,000 and the EBIT margin at 19.00% improved QoQ by 2.29% and rose YoY by 59.01%; that margin sits slightly below the industry peer mean of 20.91% and just under the industry peer median of 19.25%, indicating competitive operating efficiency but room to catch the peer mean.

Earnings per share delivered $1.84 against an estimate of $1.43, a beat of $0.41 or about 28.7%, as disclosed with second-quarter results. The EPS beat, combined with operating leverage and an interest-coverage ratio near 53.07, underpins the company’s earnings resilience and supports the current WMDST valuation.

Revenue trends show contraction: total revenue stands at $427,033,000 with YoY revenue decline of 3.63% and QoQ decline of roughly 3.03%, indicating near-term top-line pressure even as underwriting margins improve.

Cash flow profile remains strong: free cash flow equals $100,175,000 and free-cash-flow yield at 9.32% places the company above the industry peer mean free-cash-flow yield of 3.24% and inside the industry peer range; however free-cash-flow fell YoY by about 39.5%, reflecting volatility in cash conversion despite healthy absolute cash generation.

Return measures exceed peer central tendencies: return on assets at 1.95% sits above the industry peer mean of 1.84%, and return on equity at 9.29% sits above the industry peer mean of 6.86% and above the industry peer median; those returns support an equity valuation that rates below replacement-cost multiples.

Balance sheet metrics show conservative leverage: debt to assets equals 2.96% and debt to equity equals 15.36%, both below the industry peer mean leverage levels, while cash and short-term investments total $703,841,000, supporting liquidity and capital deployment flexibility.

Valuation conclusion: The current valuation as determined by WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on a combination of above-peer returns on capital, strong cash generation, and conservative leverage, offset by recent revenue declines and shrinking free-cash growth.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-23
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 598.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 101.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -902.00 K
 Change In Working Capital 41.9 M
 Dividends Paid -4.41 M
 Cash Flow Delta 2.4 M
 End Period Cash Flow 600.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 427.0 M
 Forward Revenue 56.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 347.4 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT 81.1 M
 Operating Income
 Interest Income -466.00 K
 Interest Expense 1.5 M
 Net Interest Income -2.00 M
 Income Before Tax 79.6 M
 Tax Provision 20.4 M
 Tax Rate 25.657 %
 Net Income 59.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 59.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.43
 EPS Actual 1.84
 EPS Difference 0.41
 EPS Surprise 28.671 %
 Forward EPS 1.12
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.3 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 637.2 M
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 703.8 M
 Cash 532.2 M
 Net Receivables 262.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 627.8 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 97.9 M
 Total Liabilities 2.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 637.2 M
 Retained Earnings 861.6 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 22.89
 Shares Outstanding 27.830 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.34
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.1 B
 Enterprise Value 468.4 M
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 1.097
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 5.189
 Asset To Liability 1.239
 Debt To Capital 0.133
 Debt To Assets 0.03
Debt To Assets QoQ -18.255 %
Debt To Assets YoY -3.865 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.135
median: 0.062
mean: 0.061
UVE: 0.03
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.154
Debt To Equity QoQ -10.454 %
Debt To Equity YoY -30.292 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.603
mean: 0.251
median: 0.244
UVE: 0.154
low: 0.011
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.686
Price To Book QoQ 5.856 %
Price To Book YoY 13.014 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 4.924
mean: 2.348
median: 2.089
UVE: 1.686
low: 0.285
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 20.982
Price To Earnings QoQ 25.712 %
Price To Earnings YoY 1.93 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 74.319
mean: 40.396
median: 38.765
UVE: 20.982
low: 12.893
 PE/G Ratio -2.623
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.516
Price To Sales QoQ 6.304 %
Price To Sales YoY 47.382 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 17.773
mean: 5.61
median: 5.195
UVE: 2.516
low: 1.475
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 33.966
Forward PE/G -4.246
Forward P/S 19.026
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.292
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.141
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.171 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.225 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.275
UVE: 0.141
mean: 0.116
median: 0.087
low: 0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.581
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 17.784 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 99.226 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.94
UVE: 1.581
mean: 0.72
median: 0.581
low: 0.103
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 57.728
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.002
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 735.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 735.0 M
 Invested Capital 735.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 637.2 M
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 1.069 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 53.07
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 2.932 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 58.82 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 103.374
UVE: 53.07
mean: 32.853
median: 27.705
low: -51.472
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 13.412
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.075
 Dividend Rate 0.16
 Dividend Yield 0.004
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 19.382 %
 Revenue Growth -3.52 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -303.233 %
Revenue Growth YoY -363.473 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 23.705 %
median: 6.069 %
mean: 4.542 %
UVE: -3.52 %
low: -8.981 %
 Earnings Growth -8.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 2.119 %
Earnings Growth YoY -45.142 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 114.286 %
mean: 4.926 %
median: -2.308 %
UVE: -8.0 %
low: -50.8 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 19.002 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 2.293 %
EBIT Margin YoY 59.013 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 45.417 %
mean: 20.914 %
median: 19.249 %
UVE: 19.002 %
low: 6.954 %
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 100.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 9.323 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -43.329 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -39.489 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 10.897 %
UVE: 9.323 %
mean: 3.242 %
median: 2.829 %
low: -4.064 %
 Free Cash Growth -34.63 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -106.752 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -19.979 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 827.586 %
mean: 1.058 %
median: -19.401 %
UVE: -34.63 %
low: -767.445 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.692
 Cash Flow Margin 132.69 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 9.573
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.948 %
Return On Assets QoQ 0.62 %
Return On Assets YoY 66.212 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.201 %
UVE: 1.948 %
mean: 1.836 %
median: 1.545 %
low: -2.187 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.093
Return On Equity QoQ 0.043 %
Return On Equity YoY 21.187 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.14
UVE: 0.093
mean: 0.069
median: 0.067
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 9.687 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 8.203 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 1.497 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 26.687 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 11.67 %
UVE: 8.203 %
mean: 5.764 %
median: 5.447 %
low: 0.798 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a near-term consolidation window with a bearish bias driven by declining short-term momentum indicators and MACD below its signal; price likely trades within the $41–$45 band while technical sellers pressure moves above the 20-day average. Positive fundamentals—EBIT margin expansion, substantial free cash flow, and above-peer return metrics—limit downside and create asymmetric recovery potential if reinsurance and credit-market headlines remain benign. Swing traders should treat the next six weeks as a volatility environment where fundamentals set the lower bound and momentum signals determine short-term direction.

About Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:UVE) develops and markets a range of personal residential insurance products across the United States. The company underwrites policies for homeowners, renters, condo unit owners, and provides coverage for dwelling/fire risks. It also offers allied lines, covering additional structures, personal property, liability, and personal articles. Universal Insurance Holdings manages the entire insurance process, from policy administration and underwriting to claims payments and actuarial consulting. It advises on reinsurance negotiations and manages reinsurance programs for its insurance entities. Through Clovered.com, a digital agency, the company facilitates direct-to-consumer online solutions, utilizing digital applications for claims adjustments and partnering with various carriers. Universal Insurance Holdings distributes its products via a network of independent agents, enhancing its reach and accessibility. Originally incorporated in 1990 and headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, the company rebranded from Universal Heights, Inc. to its current name in January 2001.



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