ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) Accelerates Buybacks Amid Improving European Steel Framework

ArcelorMittal shows mixed operational momentum and elevated leverage while corporate actions and policy shifts support a cautious positive near-term outlook.

Recent News

On June 30, 2026 the company announced commencement of the second tranche of its multi-year share buyback programme. On July 6–7, 2026 ArcelorMittal shifted senior European leadership, with the Europe CEO transitioning to a chair role for the ArcelorMittal Europe Steel board. On June 18, 2026 Executive Chairman Lakshmi Mittal delivered a video address marking the company’s 20th anniversary and reiterated strategic priorities.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show no clear market trend: ADX at 12.08 indicates the market lacks trend strength, so directional signals require confirmation from momentum tools before projecting sustained moves.

DI+/DI- read mixed. DI+ registered a peak-and-reversal, which implies bearish pressure from prior strength; DI- sits at 31.86 and trends downward, which implies easing downside pressure. Those opposing signals create short-term directional ambiguity against the ADX low reading.

MACD sits at 0.38, the MACD line increased and currently sits above its signal line (-0.01); that crossover and the increasing MACD indicate bullish momentum that supports a possible near-term upside extension from current levels.

MRO at 14.98 shows a positive oscillator reading and recently peaked then reversed; a positive MRO implies price sits above the internal target and faces mean-reversion risk, tempering the bullish MACD signal.

RSI at 53.84 experienced a dip and reversal; the mid-50s level indicates mild buying pressure without overbought conditions, supporting momentum continuation so long as MACD holds above its signal.

Price sits above short- and long-term averages: the close of $66.45 exceeds the 20-day average ($63.98) and the 200-day average ($53.34), while the 12-day EMA trends higher. Bollinger bands compress modestly between $60.90 (lower 1σ) and $67.05 (upper 1σ), suggesting limited immediate volatility but room for an extension toward the upper band if momentum persists.

Volatility and beta remain elevated: 42‑day and 52‑week volatilities at ~3% with 42‑day beta 2.07 indicate outsized moves relative to the market; traders should expect amplified reactions to macro or steel‑specific headlines over the near term.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT stands at $850,000,000 and EBIT margin measures 5.50%, up QoQ by 126.20% but down YoY by 21.68%. The EBIT margin remains below the industry peer mean (13.477%) and below the industry peer median (10.743%), indicating below-average operating profitability versus peers despite recent quarter-on-quarter improvement.

Revenue and growth: Reported revenue totaled $15,457,000,000 with revenue growth of 3.25% and a quarter-over-quarter contraction of 2.92%; year-over-year revenue growth registers 4.68%, signaling modest top-line expansion while sequential momentum weakened.

Earnings and per‑share metrics: Actual EPS of $0.75 exceeded the estimate of $0.71 by $0.04, an EPS surprise of 5.63%. The trailing P/E reads 74.79x while forward P/E stands near 31.06x, reflecting market expectations for earnings improvement ahead and a wide difference between trailing and forward multiples.

Cash flow and capital allocation: Free cash flow sits negative at -$1,280,000,000 with a free cash flow yield of -3.00%, and operating cash flow registers near zero. The company paid dividends with a payout ratio of 19.83% and continues share repurchases via a multi‑year program, shifting capital allocation toward buybacks while free cash flow remains negative.

Balance sheet and leverage: Net debt equals $9.324 billion and debt/EBITDA sits at 8.56x, signaling material leverage relative to earnings. Interest coverage registers 6.39x, which provides a buffer on interest obligations but reflects reduced earnings headroom versus higher-coverage peers. Current ratio at 1.39 contrasts with a lower quick ratio of 0.54, indicating moderate liquidity but limited immediate coverage of short-term obligations by liquid assets.

Operational efficiency: Asset turnover stands at 0.1578 and inventory sits at $18.705 billion with a cash conversion cycle near 22.45 days—substantially shorter than the industry peer mean cash conversion cycle—suggesting relatively efficient working capital management in turnover terms.

Valuation: The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued. Key valuation tensions include a high trailing P/E, negative free cash flow yield, and elevated leverage, partially offset by improving forward earnings expectations and active buybacks.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow -9.00 M
 Capital Expenditures -1.27 B
 Change In Working Capital -1.52 B
 Dividends Paid -114.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 15.5 B
 Forward Revenue 9.2 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 749.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 749.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA 850.0 M
 EBIT 850.0 M
 Operating Income 753.0 M
 Interest Income 133.0 M
 Interest Expense 133.0 M
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax 717.0 M
 Tax Provision 136.0 M
 Tax Rate 18.968 %
 Net Income 575.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 575.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.71
 EPS Actual 0.75
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 5.634 %
 Forward EPS 1.81
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 98.3 B
 Intangible Assets 5.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 49.7 B
 Total Current Assets 30.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 4.4 B
 Cash 4.4 B
 Net Receivables 4.1 B
 Inventory 18.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.9 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 12.3 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.7 B
 Total Current Liabilities 22.0 B
 Net Debt 9.3 B
 Total Debt 13.7 B
 Total Liabilities 41.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 55.2 B
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 72.51
 Shares Outstanding 760.428 M
 Revenue Per-Share 20.31
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 42.7 B
 Enterprise Value 52.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.532
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -9.18 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 96.436 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 135.162
mean: 54.502
median: 42.349
MT: 32.532
low: -12.173
 EV/R 3.365
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.78
 Asset To Liability 2.393
 Debt To Capital 0.199
 Debt To Assets 0.139
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.45 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5.701 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.519
mean: 0.257
median: 0.251
low: 0.188
MT: 0.139
 Debt To Equity 0.248
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.69 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5.373 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.422
mean: 0.566
median: 0.458
low: 0.285
MT: 0.248
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.774
Price To Book QoQ 18.074 %
Price To Book YoY 85.588 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 21.667
mean: 4.75
median: 2.863
MT: 0.774
low: 0.144
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 74.792
Price To Earnings QoQ 37.195 %
Price To Earnings YoY 177.533 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 146.202
mean: 90.195
MT: 74.792
median: 65.353
low: -25.413
 PE/G Ratio -5.847
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.762
Price To Sales QoQ 15.888 %
Price To Sales YoY 91.511 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 24.074
mean: 8.92
median: 5.042
MT: 2.762
low: 0.0
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 31.062
Forward PE/G -2.428
Forward P/S 4.847
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 41.129
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.158
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.51 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -3.611 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.591
mean: 0.247
median: 0.226
MT: 0.158
low: 0.106
 Receivables Turnover 4.064
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.323 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 2.764 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA MT: 4.064
high: 4.005
mean: 2.125
median: 1.724
low: 1.263
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 22.451
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 22.451
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.69 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 142.387
mean: 102.097
median: 91.92
low: 84.546
MT: 22.451
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.822
 CapEx To Revenue -0.082
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.697
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 66.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 68.9 B
 Invested Capital 68.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 49.7 B
 Net Working Capital 8.5 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.198
 Current Ratio 1.386
Current Ratio QoQ 1.95 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.729 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.161
mean: 3.463
median: 3.13
MT: 1.386
low: 1.11
 Quick Ratio 0.536
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.394 %
Quick Ratio YoY -7.869 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.242
mean: 1.525
median: 1.33
low: 0.638
MT: 0.536
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.557
 Cost Of Debt 0.796 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.391
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 553.147 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -70.475 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.56
mean: 17.596
median: 16.439
MT: 6.391
low: -5.812
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.007
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 5.044
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.198
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.58 %
 Revenue Growth 3.246 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -292.185 %
Revenue Growth YoY 468.476 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 17.916 %
median: 11.47 %
mean: 9.499 %
MT: 3.246 %
low: -34.747 %
 Earnings Growth -12.791 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -116.939 %
Earnings Growth YoY -112.791 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 115.0 %
mean: 40.373 %
median: 18.884 %
MT: -12.791 %
low: -43.75 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 5.499 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 126.203 %
EBIT Margin YoY -21.678 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.019 %
mean: 13.477 %
median: 10.743 %
MT: 5.499 %
low: -3.23 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.872 %
Return On Sales QoQ -139.642 %
Return On Sales YoY -30.608 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 22.982 %
mean: 12.971 %
median: 11.147 %
MT: 4.872 %
low: -4.328 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -1.28 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield -2.998 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -161.196 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -51.559 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.67 %
median: 0.366 %
mean: -0.199 %
MT: -2.998 %
low: -8.227 %
 Free Cash Growth -173.227 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -62.315 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -12.93 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 211.765 %
mean: -44.594 %
median: -67.279 %
low: -148.276 %
MT: -173.227 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -2.226
 Cash Flow Margin -1.055 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.283
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.587 %
Return On Assets QoQ 226.111 %
Return On Assets YoY -34.045 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.887 %
median: 2.435 %
mean: 2.265 %
MT: 0.587 %
low: -1.181 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.115 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.01
Return On Equity QoQ 220.615 %
Return On Equity YoY -33.715 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.134
median: 0.044
mean: 0.041
MT: 0.01
low: -0.048
 DuPont ROE 1.049 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.0 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 132.019 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 1.42 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.351 %
median: 3.187 %
mean: 3.186 %
MT: 1.0 %
low: -0.862 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators favor a cautiously constructive near-term bias: MACD above its signal and a recovering RSI support further upside toward the upper Bollinger band if buyback headlines or favorable European steel policy flow continue. Counterbalance comes from a positive MRO and the ADX low reading—price sits above its target and the market lacks trend strength—raising the probability of intermittent pullbacks. Elevated beta implies outsized intraperiod swings; therefore expect directional moves but limited conviction until ADX and MRO resolve. Monitor corporate buyback activity and commodity/policy developments for catalysts that could convert the present mixed setup into a sustained trend.

About ArcelorMittal

ArcelorMittal S.A. (NYSE:MT) designs and manufactures a wide array of steel products and conducts mining operations on a global scale. With a significant presence in the United States, Europe, and other international markets, ArcelorMittal produces semi-finished and finished flat products such as slabs, plates, and coils, as well as long products like bars, wire-rods, and structural sections. The company also manufactures seamless and welded pipes and tubes. In addition to its steel production, ArcelorMittal engages in mining activities, extracting iron ore and coking coal from regions including Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine. These resources support its steel manufacturing processes and are also sold to a diverse customer base. ArcelorMittal’s products serve various industries, including automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery. The company utilizes a centralized marketing organization and distribution network to reach its clients effectively. Headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, ArcelorMittal continues to play a crucial role in the global steel and mining sectors since its founding in 1976.



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