Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) Signals Near-Term Downside Pressure Despite Fair Valuation

Albany International shows weakening operational margins and near-term momentum deterioration while balance-sheet liquidity and a modest dividend temper downside risk. Technical momentum implies short-term pressure even as WMDST values the stock as fair-valued.

Recent News

May 18, 2026 — Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share payable July 7, 2026; June 3–11, 2026 — Albany Engineered Composites to exhibit at Farnborough and the company published its 2025 Sustainability Report and reported progress on an industrial textile recycling project with Cyclezyme; July 21, 2026 — company scheduled second‑quarter 2026 results for release on August 4, 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators present a bearish near-term bias: ADX at 17.3 indicates no established trend, while DI+ (18.45) shows a peak & reversal and DI− (22.89) shows a dip & reversal — both signal bearish directional pressure against a weak trend, increasing the chance of volatile price action.

MACD sits at 0.33 below its signal line at 1.25 with a peak & reversal pattern; that configuration indicates contracting bullish momentum and confirms a bearish momentum posture for the immediate outlook.

MRO registers −10.44 with a dip & reversal. The negative MRO indicates current price sits below the model target and therefore carries potential for upside mean reversion; the magnitude implies moderate potential for corrective strength if momentum shifts.

RSI at 53.83 with a peak & reversal shows momentum slipping from recent highs while remaining close to the neutral midpoint, implying limited room for sustained strength without renewed buying interest.

Price sits below short-term averages and oscillators: the close at $62.98 lies under the 12/26‑day EMAs (~$72.9), the 20‑day average ($74.10), and the 50‑day average ($71.22), signaling near-term downside pressure. The close sits above the 200‑day average ($58.51), leaving long-term structural support intact.

Bollinger context shows the close well below the 1× lower band ($70.42), indicating an outsized deviation from recent volatility bands. Volume spike to 843,542 versus a 10‑day average of ~239,779 suggests the recent move happened on elevated participation, reinforcing the legitimacy of price weakness.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and profitability: Total revenue $311,333,000 with YoY revenue decline of 5.72% and a QoQ change of −113.45% (as reported). Operating (EBIT) margin equals 8.69%, which fell 18.20% quarter-over-quarter and 16.23% year-over-year, reducing operating leverage and margin resilience.

Profitability versus peers: EBIT margin at 8.69% sits below the industry peer mean of 20.78% and median of 20.93%, and above the industry peer low of 4.62%; gross margin at 32.05% lies below the industry peer mean of 40.83% but above the peer low of 20.35%—these placements indicate profitability lags typical peer performance despite being better than the lowest peer outcomes.

Earnings and valuation multiples: Reported EPS of $0.60 exceeded the estimate of $0.53 by $0.07, a 13.21% surprise. Trailing PE stands at 92.40 while forward PE sits near 75.36, modestly above the industry peer mean forward PE of 67.16; price-to-book at 2.16 remains well below the industry peer mean P/B of 15.52, reflecting capital intensity and differing accounting or capital structures across peers.

Cash flow and balance sheet: Operating cash flow totaled $5,643,000 with free cash flow of −$3,647,000, producing a negative free cash flow yield of −0.23%. Cash and short‑term investments equal $122,557,000 and the current ratio reads 2.20 with a quick ratio of 1.88, indicating adequate near‑term liquidity. Net debt measures $353,984,000 and debt/EBITDA registers about 10.8x, while interest coverage stands at 2.45x—coverage below the industry peer mean of 6.55x highlights heavier leverage relative to peers.

Returns and capital efficiency: Return on equity equals 2.10% and return on assets 0.88%, both below typical peer means; asset turnover of 0.1802 sits above the industry peer mean of 0.1116, indicating relatively higher revenue generation per asset but not yet translating into peer‑level returns due to margin compression.

Valuation conclusion: The current valuation as determined by WMDST registers as fair‑valued; fundamentals show persistent margin pressure, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage metrics that weigh on upside, while liquidity, a modest dividend, and a forward EPS profile limit downside magnitude.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 112.3 M
 Operating Cash Flow 5.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -9.29 M
 Change In Working Capital -30.73 M
 Dividends Paid -7.93 M
 Cash Flow Delta 10.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 122.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 311.3 M
 Forward Revenue 117.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 211.5 M
 Depreciation 16.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 17.1 M
 Research and Development 13.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 284.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 99.8 M
 EBITDA 44.2 M
 EBIT 27.1 M
 Operating Income 27.1 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income -5.47 M
 Income Before Tax 23.1 M
 Tax Provision 7.7 M
 Tax Rate 33.118 %
 Net Income 15.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 15.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.53
 EPS Actual 0.60
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 13.208 %
 Forward EPS 0.81
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.7 B
 Intangible Assets 181.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 547.8 M
 Total Current Assets 963.3 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 122.6 M
 Cash 122.6 M
 Net Receivables 230.4 M
 Inventory 139.8 M
 Long-Term Investments 55.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 75.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 438.6 M
 Net Debt 354.0 M
 Total Debt 476.5 M
 Total Liabilities 1.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 729.4 M
 Retained Earnings 983.7 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 25.72
 Shares Outstanding 28.355 M
 Revenue Per-Share 10.98
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.6 B
 Enterprise Value 1.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 43.591
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 27.708 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -8.361 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 113.903
median: 113.903
mean: 93.891
AIN: 43.591
low: 21.045
 EV/R 6.186
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.381
 Asset To Liability 1.734
 Debt To Capital 0.395
 Debt To Assets 0.274
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.901 %
Debt To Assets YoY 11.225 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.592
AIN: 0.274
mean: 0.23
low: 0.158
median: 0.158
 Debt To Equity 0.653
Debt To Equity QoQ 1.518 %
Debt To Equity YoY 41.196 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.848
mean: 1.459
median: 1.123
AIN: 0.653
low: 0.303
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.155
Price To Book QoQ -0.65 %
Price To Book YoY -9.391 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 24.654
median: 17.81
mean: 15.518
AIN: 2.155
low: 0.865
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 92.403
Price To Earnings QoQ 7.905 %
Price To Earnings YoY -4.832 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 164.859
median: 164.859
mean: 132.553
AIN: 92.403
low: 55.962
 PE/G Ratio -12.013
 Price To Sales (P/S) 5.049
Price To Sales QoQ 2.951 %
Price To Sales YoY -31.886 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 25.952
median: 25.952
mean: 21.213
AIN: 5.049
low: 1.078
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 75.356
Forward PE/G -9.797
Forward P/S 14.952
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 6.737
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.18
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.057 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 4.108 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.185
AIN: 0.18
mean: 0.112
median: 0.096
low: 0.061
 Receivables Turnover 1.377
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.317 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 16.21 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.231
mean: 1.443
AIN: 1.377
median: 1.293
low: 1.014
 Inventory Turnover 1.618
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.822 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 29.161 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.967
AIN: 1.618
mean: 0.82
low: 0.654
median: 0.654
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 66.245
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 91.342
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 7.215 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -19.604 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 138.324
median: 138.324
mean: 109.803
AIN: 91.342
low: 28.639
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.593
 CapEx To Revenue -0.03
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.564
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.2 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.2 B
 Invested Capital 1.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 547.8 M
 Net Working Capital 524.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.279
 Current Ratio 2.196
Current Ratio QoQ 4.576 %
Current Ratio YoY -40.569 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.305
AIN: 2.196
mean: 1.105
median: 1.008
low: 0.534
 Quick Ratio 1.877
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.86 %
Quick Ratio YoY -35.72 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.348
AIN: 1.877
mean: 0.796
median: 0.699
low: 0.428
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.785
 Cost Of Debt 1.568 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.446
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -20.709 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -35.233 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 14.375
median: 6.565
mean: 6.554
AIN: 2.446
low: 1.304
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.036
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 28.79
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.927
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.519
 Dividend Rate 0.28
 Dividend Yield 0.005
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.052 %
 Revenue Growth -3.074 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -113.445 %
Revenue Growth YoY -572.197 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 14.981 %
mean: -1.367 %
median: -2.556 %
AIN: -3.074 %
low: -9.275 %
 Earnings Growth -7.692 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -8.981 %
Earnings Growth YoY -129.742 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 18.471 %
median: 18.471 %
mean: 12.164 %
AIN: -7.692 %
low: -43.262 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 32.054 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.097 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.064 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 69.384 %
mean: 40.825 %
median: 36.072 %
AIN: 32.054 %
low: 20.354 %
 EBIT Margin 8.69 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -18.196 %
EBIT Margin YoY -16.233 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 35.045 %
median: 20.925 %
mean: 20.782 %
AIN: 8.69 %
low: 4.623 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 8.69 %
Return On Sales QoQ -17.072 %
Return On Sales YoY -16.233 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.185 %
mean: 19.6 %
median: 18.738 %
AIN: 8.69 %
low: -9.638 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -3.65 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.232 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -107.165 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -63.175 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.978 %
mean: 0.502 %
median: 0.464 %
AIN: -0.232 %
low: -5.569 %
 Free Cash Growth -107.15 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -208.485 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -12.684 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 253.846 %
median: -19.351 %
mean: -32.63 %
AIN: -107.15 %
low: -166.812 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.239
 Cash Flow Margin 5.133 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.046
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.884 %
Return On Assets QoQ 8.867 %
Return On Assets YoY -15.0 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.31 %
mean: 1.532 %
median: 1.472 %
AIN: 0.884 %
low: 0.069 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.084 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ 9.628 %
Return On Equity YoY 8.662 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.2
median: 0.105
mean: 0.104
AIN: 0.021
low: 0.007
 DuPont ROE 2.1 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.5 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -14.432 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -10.233 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.989 %
median: 5.989 %
mean: 4.996 %
AIN: 1.5 %
low: 0.253 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near term: expect continued downside bias while price remains beneath the 20‑ and 50‑day averages and momentum indicators (MACD, DI+) show peak reversals. Elevated volume on the recent decline increases the probability of follow‑through selling over the next few weeks unless momentum indicators recover.

Pivot factors: the 200‑day average near $58.51 provides structural support, and the negative MRO suggests scope for mean reversion if momentum indicators begin to improve; however, interest coverage and free cash flow metrics keep fundamental pressure on sustained bullish conviction.

Swing‑trader implication: plan for volatility and potential consolidation; monitor MACD crossing above its signal line and DI+ stabilization as required signs of momentum recovery, while a failure to regain the short‑term moving averages would favor continued price pressure within the six‑week horizon.

About Albany International Corp.

Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) stands as a pioneering force in the realm of advanced textiles and engineered materials. Founded in 1895 and based in Rochester, New Hampshire, Albany International operates through two core segments: Machine Clothing (MC) and Albany Engineered Composites (AEC). The MC division excels in producing high-performance fabrics and belts that play a pivotal role in the paper production industry. These innovative products optimize the forming, pressing, and drying processes, thereby enhancing the efficiency and quality of paper manufacturing. Beyond paper, these materials also serve a range of industrial applications, including textiles, nonwovens, and fiber cement. On the other hand, the AEC segment pushes the boundaries of composite technology, specializing in 3D-woven and injected composite components. These materials are indispensable to the aerospace sector, catering to both military and commercial needs. By providing lightweight and durable components, AEC contributes significantly to the production of aircraft engines and airframes. With a global presence spanning the United States, Europe, South America, and Asia, Albany International remains committed to innovation and excellence. The company leverages over a century of expertise to deliver tailored solutions, continually advancing the field of engineered materials and textiles worldwide.



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