Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Poised To Rebound On Strong Cash Flow And Technical Divergence

Centene shows a mixed near-term technical picture but a fundamentally supportive cash-flow profile that underpins an undervalued WMDST valuation. Short-term momentum and directional indicators point to consolidation, while core cash generation cushions operating risk.

Recent News

April 2, 2026: Carolina Complete Health and WellCare of North Carolina combined to form a provider-led managed care organization. Late April 2026: the company published first-quarter 2026 results materials and scheduled its earnings call and related investor disclosures.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 46.03 signals a very strong trend environment. DI+ sits at 30.20 and is decreasing, which reads as bearish directional pressure; DI- registered a dip-and-reversal at 13.47, which also signals bearish direction as DI- has moved higher after the dip. Together these directional readings point to strong trend strength with a bearish directional bias for the near term, which directly increases the odds of short-term consolidation or downward intraday pressure relative to the current valuation.

MACD: MACD at 2.48 sits below its signal line (signal 3.19) and the MACD trend shows decreasing momentum; that configuration indicates contracting bullish momentum and aligns with a near-term negative momentum bias versus the valuation backdrop.

MRO: MRO at -3.7 (negative) indicates price currently sits below the calculated target, implying upward pressure exists from a price-to-target perspective; the MRO trend decreases, reinforcing the presence of mean-reversion potential that contrasts with the directional indicators described above.

RSI: RSI at 64.71 and decreasing points to waning upward momentum while still below classic overbought thresholds, which suggests limited immediate upside runway but room for rotation back toward the moving averages without extreme readings.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: The 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which denotes a short-term bearish turn. Price closed at $61.02, below the 20-day average ($62.74) but above the 50-day ($53.75) and 200-day ($42.05) averages; that arrangement implies short-term weakness inside a longer-term bullish base. Price sits close to the lower 1x Bollinger band ($60.36), leaving technical room for a range-bound bounce toward the 20-day average while the dominant trend strength (ADX) favors continuation of the prevailing move until momentum rebuilds.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: EBIT of $2,263,000,000 produces an EBIT margin of 4.531%. That margin runs slightly below the industry peer median of 4.692% and below the industry peer mean of 7.315%, indicating profitability at modest levels relative to peers. Operating margin registers 3.726%, consistent with mid-single-digit operating profitability.

Earnings & Guidance Context: Reported diluted EPS of $3.37 exceeded the estimate of $2.13 by $1.24, an EPS surprise ratio of 58.22%. Forward EPS sits at $1.11 with a forward P/E near 38.7; current trailing P/E equals 11.45, reflecting the gap between recent realized earnings and forward consensus.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow reached $4,366,000,000 with free cash flow of $4,166,000,000 and a free cash flow yield of 21.95%. The free cash flow yield exceeds the industry peer mean of 2.88%, emphasizing unusually strong cash conversion relative to peers. Cash and short-term investments total $23,741,000,000 and the cash ratio sits at 0.593, while the current ratio measures 1.123, slightly above the industry peer mean of 0.991, supporting near-term liquidity.

Leverage & Coverage: Total debt equals $16,371,000,000 with debt-to-EBITDA near 6.39 and debt-to-equity 0.764. Interest coverage at 13.80 exceeds the industry peer mean of 11.73, indicating serviceability of interest expense despite elevated leverage by the debt-to-EBITDA metric.

Growth Metrics: Reported revenue totaled $49,944,000,000. Quarter-over-quarter revenue growth reads 5.29%, while the provided year-over-year growth figure shows a negative reading; earnings growth shows negative year-over-year movement of about -3.83% but a positive sequential percent change quarter-over-quarter. Asset turnover at 0.6325 sits above the industry peer mean of 0.5185, signaling relatively efficient asset use.

Valuation: Enterprise multiple stands at 4.53 and the P/B ratio at 0.89 runs below the industry peer mean of 2.18 and median of 1.56. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, supported by high free cash flow yield and a low enterprise multiple relative to the firm’s cash generation and interest coverage profile. The valuation case balances strong cash conversion against elevated leverage measured by debt-to-EBITDA.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 18.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow 4.4 B
 Capital Expenditures -200.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.5 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 3.4 B
 End Period Cash Flow 21.4 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 49.9 B
 Forward Revenue 4.5 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 44.4 B
 Depreciation 134.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 300.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 48.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.6 B
 EBITDA 2.6 B
 EBIT 2.3 B
 Operating Income 1.9 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 164.0 M
 Net Interest Income -164.00 M
 Income Before Tax 2.1 B
 Tax Provision 560.0 M
 Tax Rate 26.7 %
 Net Income 1.5 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.5 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.13
 EPS Actual 3.37
 EPS Difference 1.24
 EPS Surprise 58.216 %
 Forward EPS 1.11
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 81.2 B
 Intangible Assets 15.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.2 B
 Total Current Assets 45.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 23.7 B
 Cash 21.3 B
 Net Receivables 19.4 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.3 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 16.8 B
 Short-Term Debt 63.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.0 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 16.4 B
 Total Liabilities 59.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 21.4 B
 Retained Earnings 10.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 43.57
 Shares Outstanding 493.771 M
 Revenue Per-Share 101.56
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.0 B
 Enterprise Value 11.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 4.529
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -126.166 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -67.7 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 159.017
median: 41.816
mean: 36.158
CNC: 4.529
low: -42.479
 EV/R 0.232
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.788
 Asset To Liability 1.361
 Debt To Capital 0.433
 Debt To Assets 0.202
Debt To Assets QoQ -14.777 %
Debt To Assets YoY -4.176 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.935
mean: 0.36
median: 0.262
CNC: 0.202
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.764
Debt To Equity QoQ -16.062 %
Debt To Equity YoY 16.425 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 6.239
CNC: 0.764
median: 0.732
mean: -0.104
low: -6.439
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.886
Price To Book QoQ -12.786 %
Price To Book YoY -18.264 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.088
mean: 2.183
median: 1.563
CNC: 0.886
low: -0.307
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 11.452
Price To Earnings QoQ -133.072 %
Price To Earnings YoY -45.381 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 167.375
mean: 49.421
median: 38.698
CNC: 11.452
low: -165.821
 PE/G Ratio -0.03
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.38
Price To Sales QoQ -6.753 %
Price To Sales YoY -41.438 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.743
mean: 2.655
median: 1.073
CNC: 0.38
low: 0.026
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 38.694
Forward PE/G -0.101
Forward P/S 4.737
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -600.746
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.633
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.019 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 14.977 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.21
CNC: 0.633
mean: 0.518
median: 0.397
low: 0.013
 Receivables Turnover 2.661
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.297 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 20.312 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.342
median: 3.671
mean: 3.556
CNC: 2.661
low: 0.052
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 34.285
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 4.878
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 101.8
median: 19.637
mean: 16.515
CNC: 4.878
low: -62.922
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 10.102
 CapEx To Revenue -0.004
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.493
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 37.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 37.8 B
 Invested Capital 37.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.2 B
 Net Working Capital 4.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.593
 Current Ratio 1.123
Current Ratio QoQ 2.122 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.067 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.361
CNC: 1.123
mean: 0.991
median: 0.854
low: 0.273
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 6.387
 Cost Of Debt 0.696 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 13.799
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -268.596 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 22.432 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 35.836
CNC: 13.799
mean: 11.729
median: 7.359
low: -1.125
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.093
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 29.407
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 5.77 %
 Revenue Growth 0.44 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 528.571 %
Revenue Growth YoY -96.912 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 21.958 %
CNC: 0.44 %
mean: -2.21 %
median: -4.983 %
low: -9.495 %
 Earnings Growth -383.193 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 13.371 %
Earnings Growth YoY -245.978 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 157.143 %
mean: 25.003 %
median: 1.648 %
low: -200.0 %
CNC: -383.193 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 11.128 %
Gross Margin QoQ 124.31 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.269 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.442 %
mean: 25.743 %
median: 15.558 %
CNC: 11.128 %
low: 4.2 %
 EBIT Margin 4.531 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -263.87 %
EBIT Margin YoY 10.243 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.127 %
mean: 7.315 %
median: 4.692 %
CNC: 4.531 %
low: -12.88 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.726 %
Return On Sales QoQ -250.363 %
Return On Sales YoY -9.343 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 22.401 %
mean: 7.483 %
median: 4.66 %
CNC: 3.726 %
low: -12.88 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 21.951 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 1886.516 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 382.97 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA CNC: 21.951 %
high: 13.5 %
median: 3.132 %
mean: 2.88 %
low: -7.715 %
 Free Cash Growth 1759.821 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -2287.825 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -716.27 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA CNC: 1759.821 %
high: 298.093 %
mean: 17.28 %
median: 2.874 %
low: -455.219 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.703
 Cash Flow Margin 7.456 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.417
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.952 %
Return On Assets QoQ -240.837 %
Return On Assets YoY 26.18 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.991 %
CNC: 1.952 %
median: 1.8 %
mean: 1.712 %
low: -5.482 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.502 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.072
Return On Equity QoQ -230.337 %
Return On Equity YoY 53.152 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.27
CNC: 0.072
median: 0.038
mean: -0.029
low: -0.261
 DuPont ROE 7.447 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.39 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -267.302 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 40.705 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.871 %
CNC: 4.39 %
mean: 3.545 %
median: 2.946 %
low: -6.018 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a near-term period of choppy, range-bound trading with a slight downside tilt driven by bearish directional indicators and deteriorating short-term momentum. Contradictory mean-reversion signals — negative MRO and price near the lower Bollinger band — create potential for intermittent bounces toward the 20-day average, while ADX and MACD point to the risk that any rallies encounter selling pressure until momentum and DI+ regain strength. Fundamental support from robust free cash flow and a low enterprise multiple should limit severe downside, suggesting consolidation around current levels while technical signals sort themselves out over the next six weeks.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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