Recent News
Mar 5, 2026 — Vistra expanded its residential battery aggregation program in Texas, partnering to grow a virtual power plant to support grid reliability. Mar 17, 2026 — Fitch upgraded Vistra’s long-term issuer default rating to investment grade. Apr 22, 2026 — Vistra priced a private offering of senior notes totaling $4.0 billion, with proceeds earmarked for refinancing and corporate purposes. Apr 30, 2026 — Board declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.2290 per share payable June 30, 2026 (record date June 22, 2026).
Technical Analysis
ADX registers 13.49, indicating no strong trend; this limits conviction behind any directional signals despite localized indicator shifts and aligns with a near-term mixed price bias.
DI+ exhibits a dip-and-reversal, a bullish signal that implies buyers regained short-term directional edge; DI- shows a peak-and-reversal, which also reads as a bullish shift as selling pressure eased. Together, these directional shifts suggest a nascent bullish tilt rather than a sustained trend.
MACD presents a dip-and-reversal: momentum has begun to turn bullish even though MACD sits negative at -4.04 and below the signal line (-3.12); the improvement implies momentum may lift price toward short-term resistance but remains early.
MRO stands at -23.76 (negative), indicating the current price sits below the model target and implies upside pressure; the negative MRO strengthens the case for a potential corrective move higher toward fair-value anchors.
RSI at 46.55 with a dip-and-reversal reads as near-neutral momentum that recently shifted upward, supporting the view that short-term buying pressure increased modestly from oversold/soft conditions.
Price relations: last close $149.08 sits above the 20-day average ($147.77) but below the 50-day ($154.65) and 200-day ($174.26), indicating short-term support near the 20-day while intermediate trend remains lower. Price trades inside the 1x Bollinger band range ($138.29–$157.26) and sits just below the super trend upper level ($149.26), leaving upside capped by overhead technical resistance.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue totaled $4,971,000,000 with net income $652,000,000 and operating cash flow $1,467,000,000. EBITDA reached $1,789,000,000 and EBIT $1,098,000,000. WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on current multiples and capital structure.
Profitability: EBIT margin stands at 22.09%; quarter-over-quarter change +44.20% and year-over-year change -46.91%. Operating margin 20.96% (QoQ +52.81%; YoY -49.61%). Gross margin 39.15% (YoY -28.96%). Return on equity 23.85% (QoQ +71.16%; YoY -62.55%); return on assets 1.71% (YoY -65.09%). EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean (34.00%) and median (41.13%), while remaining above the industry peer low.
Earnings: GAAP EPS actual $0.54 versus estimate $2.30, an EPS shortfall of $1.76, representing an EPS surprise of -76.52%. Forward EPS $2.75 produces forward P/E ~82.74x while trailing P/E sits ~111.71x; both multiples carry premium pressure relative to typical utility ranges and factor into WMDST’s over-valued conclusion.
Cash flow & capital allocation: free cash flow $1,009,000,000 with free cash flow yield ~1.52% (QoQ and YoY metrics show volatility). Operating cash flow covers dividends and buybacks at current levels; dividend yield ~0.15% with dividend coverage ratio 6.65 and payout ratio ~15.03%.
Leverage and liquidity: total debt $17,502,000,000, net debt $16,611,000,000, debt-to-equity 6.40 (640%), debt-to-assets 46.03%, and interest coverage ~4.54x. A recent private offering of senior notes ($4.0B priced across maturities) aimed at refinancing and liquidity management addresses maturities but leaves leverage high in absolute terms relative to equity capital. Available liquidity as disclosed near quarter-end exceeded $4.1B.
Efficiency and growth: asset turnover 0.13 (above the industry peer mean of 0.0608), revenue growth metrics show mixed signals — reported point measures include revenue growth 16.97%, revenue growth QoQ +110.48%, and revenue growth YoY -73.30% — reflecting sizable period-to-period variability. Free cash growth shows a decline YoY while QoQ improved, underscoring cyclical operating factors and hedge/commodity effects on reported results.
Valuation anchors: price-to-book 24.22x well above the industry peer mean (~1.37) and price-to-sales ~13.32x. Enterprise multiple ~46.45x and EV-to-revenue ~16.72x present elevated market expectations versus WMDST’s assessed fundamentals, driving the over-valued determination.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-27 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-29 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 495.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 1.5 B | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -458.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 29.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -98.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 143.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 638.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 5.0 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 1.8 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 3.0 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 691.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 691.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 3.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 1.9 B | |
| EBITDA | $ 1.8 B | |
| EBIT | $ 1.1 B | |
| Operating Income | $ 1.0 B | |
| Interest Income | $ 4.0 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 242.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -272.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 856.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 204.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 23.8 % | |
| Net Income | $ 652.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 652.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 2.30 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.54 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -1.76 | |
| EPS Surprise | -76.522 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 2.75 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 38.0 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 4.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 8.4 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 602.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 602.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 2.3 B | |
| Inventory | $ 970.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 1.4 B | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 1.4 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 1.5 B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 8.4 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 16.6 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 17.5 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 32.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.7 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -107.00 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 8.07 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 338.680 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 14.68 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 66.2 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 83.1 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 46.455 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -18.978 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 306.481 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 109.499 VST: 46.455 median: 37.284 mean: 31.434 low: -34.347 |
|
| EV/R | 16.718 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 13.906 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.159 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.865 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.46 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -2.687 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 1036.081 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.72 VST: 0.46 mean: 0.364 median: 0.311 low: 0.169 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 6.402 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -16.738 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 1136.524 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 7.982 VST: 6.402 mean: 2.546 median: 0.918 low: -3.563 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 24.216 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -10.394 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 91.844 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | VST: 24.216 high: 3.069 median: 2.374 mean: 1.369 low: -7.501 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 111.706 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -50.029 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 449.141 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 239.096 median: 158.025 VST: 111.706 mean: 81.38 low: -219.064 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 0.963 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 13.319 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.758 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 123.765 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 60.901 VST: 13.319 mean: 9.149 median: 2.89 low: 0.052 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 82.738 | |
| Forward PE/G | 0.713 | |
| Forward P/S | 43.613 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 4.047 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.131 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 17.288 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -20.077 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | VST: 0.131 high: 0.093 median: 0.067 mean: 0.061 low: 0.017 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.182 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 6.619 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -25.855 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.752 VST: 2.182 median: 1.641 mean: 1.552 low: 0.964 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 3.127 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 11.17 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 5.937 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.4 mean: 4.274 median: 4.149 VST: 3.127 low: 3.121 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 41.816 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 29.967 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -13.683 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 78.878 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 78.66 VST: 29.967 mean: 1.244 median: -0.434 low: -80.991 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | -110.467 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.092 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.663 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 21.0 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ -45.00 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.071 | |
| Current Ratio | 0.995 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 10.604 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -10.689 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.66 mean: 1.22 VST: 0.995 median: 0.884 low: 0.392 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 10.355 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -11.141 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 1.307 mean: 0.896 VST: 0.88 median: 0.703 low: 0.389 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 9.783 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.038 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.537 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 72.845 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -61.149 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 9.262 VST: 4.537 mean: 4.401 median: 1.94 low: -4.163 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.157 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 44.462 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 6.653 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.15 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.29 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.001 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.33 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 16.965 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 110.484 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -73.299 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 48.983 % mean: 25.544 % median: 19.307 % VST: 16.965 % low: -2.206 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 116.049 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -162.026 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -76.79 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | VST: 116.049 % high: 60.694 % median: 47.059 % mean: -66.239 % low: -404.63 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 39.147 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 7.825 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -28.959 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 71.592 % median: 41.168 % mean: 40.031 % VST: 39.147 % low: 11.262 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 22.088 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 44.196 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -46.908 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 105.059 % median: 41.132 % mean: 34.001 % VST: 22.088 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 20.962 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 52.807 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -49.614 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 49.102 % mean: 27.141 % median: 23.845 % VST: 20.962 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 1.0 B | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.524 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -919.355 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -43.909 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.423 % VST: 1.524 % median: -1.714 % mean: -3.123 % low: -10.519 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -955.085 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | 3064.839 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -2189.81 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 471.338 % mean: 197.742 % median: 169.236 % low: -111.656 % VST: -955.085 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 1.548 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 26.675 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 2.034 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 1.712 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 100.0 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -65.09 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.079 % mean: 1.758 % VST: 1.712 % median: 1.287 % low: -0.499 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 3.71 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.238 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 71.162 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -62.548 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.49 VST: 0.238 mean: 0.07 median: 0.059 low: -0.001 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 25.664 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.194 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 59.589 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -98.685 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | VST: 4.194 % high: 3.113 % mean: 1.922 % median: 1.536 % low: 0.841 % |
|