First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) Positioned For Near-Term Integration-Driven Momentum

First Merchants enters a near-term phase defined by integration activity and mixed technical signals; fundamentals show earnings beat but elevated valuation ratios versus selective peer measures. Expect consolidation of recent deal gains to shape price action.

Recent News

On February 2, 2026 First Merchants completed the legal closing of its merger with First Savings Financial Group, effective February 1, 2026, and confirmed regulatory approvals required to close the transaction. In February the company announced changes to its board and declared a cash dividend tied to the period surrounding the transaction; management expects system integration during the second quarter of 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 13.95 signals no established trend, limiting conviction for sustained breakout moves. DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal, which reads bullish for near-term directional bias, while DI- has increased, which reads bearish; the coexistence of both directional moves suggests choppy, range-bound behavior until trend strength picks up.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.30 below its signal line at 0.37 with a decreasing MACD trend, signaling waning bullish momentum and implying a near-term bias toward consolidation or modest downward pressure relative to recent levels.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 25.73 and rising indicates price sits above the model target and carries potential for mean reversion, increasing the probability of corrective pressure into the near term unless offset by fresh bullish catalysts.

RSI and short-term EMAs: RSI at 53.6 with a dip-and-reversal points to regained buying interest from a shallow pullback, while the 12-day EMA shows a dip-and-reversal and price (close $40.44) sits marginally above the 20-day average ($40.43) and the 50-day average ($39.26). Those alignments favor contained upside but not a broad breakout given ADX weakness.

Support, resistance, and volatility context: Price remains inside the 1x Bollinger band range (lower ~$39.84, upper ~$41.02) and above the 200-day average ($38.67), keeping the intermediate bias constructive. SuperTrend lower at $39.26 offers a nearby technical support reference. Volume slightly exceeds its 10-day average, suggesting engagement during recent sessions without surge-level conviction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings and guidance context: Reported EPS of $1.03 versus an estimate of $0.97 produced an EPS surprise of +6.19% on the quarter ended 2026-03-31 (report date 2026-04-22). Forward EPS stands at $1.13875 with a forward P/E of 34.02, reflecting expected near-term earnings carry into the next twelve months.

Profitability and cash flow: Cash flow to earnings registers at $0.00 in the supplied metrics; cost of debt sits at 10.011% and invested capital shows a negative $782,036,000 in the dataset provided. Reported earnings growth on the latest read shows mixed periodic performance: earnings growth QoQ of -6.05% and earnings growth YoY of -78.46%.

Top-line growth: Revenue growth registers at 3.63% overall, with revenue growth QoQ of 2.27% and revenue growth YoY of 78.72%; the material YoY uplift aligns with recent merger activity adding scale and one-time compounding to reported revenue comparisons.

Valuation metrics vs. industry peer metrics: Trailing P/E stands at 38.15, below the industry peer mean of 49.17 but above the industry peer median of 32.66 — the stock trades between peer median and peer mean. PEG sits at 7.48, which lies above the industry peer mean of -8.89 and above the industry peer median of -26.12, reflecting elevated price relative to measured growth. Forward P/E of 34.02 compares below the industry peer mean forward P/E of 41.70 and above the industry peer median forward P/E of 30.10. Do not interpret beyond those comparisons; these figures indicate the market assigns premium multiple characteristics relative to some peer central measures while remaining below the peer mean on a trailing basis.

WMDST valuation conclusion: The current valuation as determined by WMDST: fair-valued, with deal-related revenue lift and an EPS beat offset by elevated trailing multiples relative to industry peer mean metrics.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow —
 Operating Cash Flow —
 Capital Expenditures —
 Change In Working Capital —
 Dividends Paid —
 Cash Flow Delta —
 End Period Cash Flow —
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue —
 Forward Revenue —
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue —
 Depreciation —
 Depreciation and Amortization —
 Research and Development —
 Total Operating Expenses —
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit —
 EBITDA —
 EBIT —
 Operating Income —
 Interest Income —
 Interest Expense —
 Net Interest Income —
 Income Before Tax —
 Tax Provision —
 Tax Rate —
 Net Income —
 Net Income From Continuing Operations —
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 0.97
 EPS Actual $ 1.03
 EPS Difference $ 0.06
 EPS Surprise 6.186 %
 Forward EPS $ 1.14
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets —
 Intangible Assets —
 Net Tangible Assets —
 Total Current Assets —
 Cash and Short-Term Investments —
 Cash —
 Net Receivables —
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments —
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable —
 Short-Term Debt —
 Total Current Liabilities —
 Net Debt —
 Total Debt —
 Total Liabilities —
EQUITY
 Total Equity —
 Retained Earnings —
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share —
 Shares Outstanding —
 Revenue Per-Share —
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization —
 Enterprise Value —
 Enterprise Multiple —
Enterprise Multiple QoQ —
Enterprise Multiple YoY —
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA —
 EV/R —
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity —
 Asset To Liability —
 Debt To Capital —
 Debt To Assets —
Debt To Assets QoQ —
Debt To Assets YoY —
Debt To Assets IPRWA —
 Debt To Equity —
Debt To Equity QoQ —
Debt To Equity YoY —
Debt To Equity IPRWA —
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) —
Price To Book QoQ —
Price To Book YoY —
Price To Book IPRWA —
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 38.148
Price To Earnings QoQ -1.25 %
Price To Earnings YoY -8.382 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 85.229
mean: 49.17
FRME: 38.148
median: 32.656
low: 28.296
 PE/G Ratio 7.477
 Price To Sales (P/S) —
Price To Sales QoQ —
Price To Sales YoY —
Price To Sales IPRWA —
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 34.021
Forward PE/G 6.668
Forward P/S —
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage —
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio —
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY —
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Receivables Turnover —
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY —
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Inventory Turnover —
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY —
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) —
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA —
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio —
 CapEx To Revenue —
 CapEx To Depreciation —
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital —
 Net Invested Capital —
 Invested Capital $ -782.04 M
 Net Tangible Assets —
 Net Working Capital —
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio —
 Current Ratio —
Current Ratio QoQ —
Current Ratio YoY —
Current Ratio IPRWA —
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA —
 Cost Of Debt 10.011 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio —
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ —
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY —
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA —
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio —
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) —
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio —
 Dividend Payout Ratio —
 Dividend Rate —
 Dividend Yield —
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate —
 Revenue Growth 3.628 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 226.553 %
Revenue Growth YoY 78.719 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 18.406 %
FRME: 3.628 %
mean: 0.087 %
median: -7.054 %
low: -11.349 %
 Earnings Growth 5.102 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -605.149 %
Earnings Growth YoY -78.458 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 41.86 %
FRME: 5.102 %
mean: -5.267 %
median: -15.517 %
low: -37.349 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin —
Gross Margin QoQ —
Gross Margin YoY —
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin —
EBIT Margin QoQ —
EBIT Margin YoY —
EBIT Margin IPRWA —
 Return On Sales (ROS) —
Return On Sales QoQ —
Return On Sales YoY —
Return On Sales IPRWA —
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) —
 Free Cash Flow Yield —
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ —
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY —
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA —
 Free Cash Growth —
Free Cash Growth QoQ —
Free Cash Growth YoY —
Free Cash Growth IPRWA —
 Free Cash To Net Income —
 Cash Flow Margin —
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added —
 Return On Assets (ROA) —
Return On Assets QoQ —
Return On Assets YoY —
Return On Assets IPRWA —
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) —
 Return On Equity (ROE) —
Return On Equity QoQ —
Return On Equity YoY —
Return On Equity IPRWA —
 DuPont ROE —
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) —
Return On Invested Capital QoQ —
Return On Invested Capital YoY —
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA —

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation around the $39–$41 area as integration headlines and quarterly follow-through determine directional conviction. Technicals show neutral-to-modest bullish tilt (price above 50- and 200-day averages, RSI recovering) but momentum measures (declining MACD, positive rising MRO) warn of potential pullbacks toward the SuperTrend support near $39.26. Short-term catalysts: integration updates and quarterly operational metrics; absent fresh positive catalysts, price likely trades in a defined range while the market digests transaction synergies and near-term earnings dynamics.

About First Merchants Corporation

First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) develops a comprehensive range of financial services through its subsidiary, First Merchants Bank. Established in 1893 and headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, the company maintains a strong presence across the Midwest with numerous locations in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. First Merchants delivers community banking services tailored to both individual and business clients, offering a variety of deposit accounts such as time, savings, and demand deposits. The company provides an extensive selection of loan products, including consumer, commercial, agri-business, and real estate mortgage loans. In addition to traditional banking services, First Merchants extends its offerings to encompass personal and corporate trust services, brokerage, and private wealth management, ensuring a comprehensive approach to financial health. To meet the evolving demands of its customers, First Merchants integrates modern banking conveniences, including electronic and mobile delivery channels. By prioritizing financial stability and personalized service, First Merchants Corporation continues to drive growth and support community development throughout the regions it serves.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.