Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Accelerates Product Wins While Technical Momentum Outruns Fundamental Valuation

Semtech shows strong technical momentum driven by recent product demonstrations and IoT deployments, while fundamentals and WMDST valuation signal an over-valued equity base. Near-term price action will reflect the interplay between event-driven demand and stretched multiples.

Recent News

Feb. 26, 2026 — Semtech announced participation at MWC26 Barcelona to showcase cellular and LoRa IoT portfolio and highlight multi‑protocol and private-network use cases.

Mar. 10, 2026 — Semtech launched the FX86E 5G RedCap modem for industrial IoT, marketed as a pre‑certified plug‑and‑play solution to shorten carrier certification cycles.

Mar. 12, 2026 — At OFC 2026 Semtech demonstrated live 1.6T and 3.2T optical/copper interconnects for AI/data‑center applications, promoting next‑generation high‑speed ICs.

Mar. 31, 2026 — Kaskela Law announced a shareholder investigation into Semtech related to prior disclosures about CopperEdge demand and related disclosures.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX/DI+/DI-): ADX at 31.93 indicates a strong trend; DI+ at 37.16 is increasing while DI- at 14.07 is decreasing, a bullish directional set that supports continuation of recent upside.

MACD and signal: MACD at 10.17 sits above the signal line at 7.41 and shows an increasing MACD_trend; the MACD cross above the signal line confirms bullish momentum.

Price vs. moving averages and bands: Last close $139.74 trades well above the 200‑day average $76.02, 50‑day average $94.16 and 20‑day average $114.83; the 12‑day EMA ($120.69) trends higher, signaling short‑term strength. Price sits between the 1x and 2x upper Bollinger bands, consistent with a stretched short‑term move.

MRO and RSI: MRO at 36.91 sits positive, which indicates price above the model target and leaves a latent downside bias if momentum reverses; RSI at 62.15 and rising shows constructive momentum but leaves limited additional room before classic overbought territory.

Volatility, beta and volume context: 42‑day beta 3.15 and 52‑week beta 2.79 reflect elevated volatility; 10‑day average volume (2.63M) and recent volume (3.45M) confirm above‑average liquidity supporting trend continuation. SuperTrend lower support sits near $121.63.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT equals -$29,632,000 and EBIT margin equals -10.80%, a QoQ margin contraction of -4.66 percentage points and YoY margin change of -2.40 percentage points. The company’s EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 38.93% and below the industry peer median of 32.66%.

Revenue and earnings: Total revenue $274,355,000 with reported revenue growth of 2.77%, while revenue growth YoY shows -53.79%; EPS actual $0.44 versus estimate $0.43, an EPS beat of $0.01 and an EPS surprise ratio of 2.33%.

Cash flow and liquidity: Cash and short‑term investments $195,179,000, operating cash flow $61,487,000, and free cash flow $58,449,000. Current ratio 2.37 and quick ratio 1.66 indicate ample near‑term liquidity; free cash flow yield at 0.77% falls slightly below the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 1.00% (industry peer mean = 0.00999 expressed as percentage).

Capital structure and leverage: Total debt $497,297,000, net debt $296,055,000, debt‑to‑equity 0.90 and debt‑to‑assets 0.35. Interest coverage negative and operating leverage metrics reflect operating losses at the EBIT level despite positive operating income in the dataset; net income reported -$29,795,000.

Valuation multiples: P/E 186.44, P/S 27.71, and P/B 13.83. P/B sits above the industry peer mean P/B of 5.64 and industry peer median of 5.73; P/S sits above the industry peer mean of 25.16. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued.

Bottom line valuation context: Product wins and IoT/AI interconnect demonstrations support revenue runway potential, but negative EBIT, elevated leverage, and stretched multiples leave fundamental valuation inconsistent with the current price; WMDST classifies the stock as over‑valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-01-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-16
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-15
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 164.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 61.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -3.04 M
 Change In Working Capital 6.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 30.5 M
 End Period Cash Flow 195.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 274.4 M
 Forward Revenue -155.28 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 136.1 M
 Depreciation 11.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 11.6 M
 Research and Development 51.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses 247.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 138.3 M
 EBITDA -18.03 M
 EBIT -29.63 M
 Operating Income 27.0 M
 Interest Income 834.0 K
 Interest Expense 736.0 K
 Net Interest Income -993.00 K
 Income Before Tax -30.37 M
 Tax Provision -937.00 K
 Tax Rate 3.086 %
 Net Income -29.80 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -29.80 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.43
 EPS Actual 0.44
 EPS Difference 0.01
 EPS Surprise 2.326 %
 Forward EPS 0.73
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 497.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 51.8 M
 Total Current Assets 655.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 195.2 M
 Cash 195.2 M
 Net Receivables 160.6 M
 Inventory 195.7 M
 Long-Term Investments 113.7 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 84.1 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 275.9 M
 Net Debt 296.1 M
 Total Debt 497.3 M
 Total Liabilities 860.6 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 549.7 M
 Retained Earnings -436.06 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 5.93
 Shares Outstanding 92.669 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.96
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 7.6 B
 Enterprise Value 7.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple -438.379
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -236.228 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -435.164 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 394.414
mean: 56.031
median: 22.264
low: -338.1
SMTC: -438.379
 EV/R 28.809
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.566
 Asset To Liability 1.639
 Debt To Capital 0.475
 Debt To Assets 0.353
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.069 %
Debt To Assets YoY 997.448 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.423
SMTC: 0.353
mean: 0.151
median: 0.106
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.905
Debt To Equity QoQ 4.328 %
Debt To Equity YoY 976.184 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA SMTC: 0.905
high: 0.733
mean: 0.276
median: 0.149
low: 0.003
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 13.829
Price To Book QoQ 32.191 %
Price To Book YoY 79.504 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 18.637
SMTC: 13.829
median: 5.73
mean: 5.641
low: 0.296
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 186.438
Price To Earnings QoQ 39.592 %
Price To Earnings YoY 53.964 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 539.07
SMTC: 186.438
mean: 84.078
median: 52.007
low: -104.46
 PE/G Ratio -22.373
 Price To Sales (P/S) 27.708
Price To Sales QoQ 25.009 %
Price To Sales YoY 66.432 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 100.342
SMTC: 27.708
mean: 25.163
median: 17.401
low: 0.418
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 101.808
Forward PE/G -12.218
Forward P/S -49.067
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -172.114
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.195
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.601 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 8.606 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.255
SMTC: 0.195
median: 0.192
mean: 0.19
low: 0.053
 Receivables Turnover 1.687
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.54 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 2.474 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.864
mean: 2.082
median: 2.039
SMTC: 1.687
low: 0.605
 Inventory Turnover 0.713
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.453 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -3.177 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.918
median: 0.716
SMTC: 0.713
mean: 0.69
low: 0.24
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 54.098
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 132.967
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -2.774 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.048 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 241.357
SMTC: 132.967
median: 119.741
mean: 117.899
low: 39.374
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.724
 CapEx To Revenue -0.011
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.262
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.0 B
 Invested Capital 1.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 51.8 M
 Net Working Capital 379.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.707
 Current Ratio 2.374
Current Ratio QoQ -2.432 %
Current Ratio YoY 14.776 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 12.476
mean: 3.044
median: 2.897
SMTC: 2.374
low: 0.912
 Quick Ratio 1.665
Quick Ratio QoQ -2.381 %
Quick Ratio YoY 11.694 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 11.279
mean: 2.373
median: 2.319
SMTC: 1.665
low: 0.554
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -27.582
 Cost Of Debt 0.538 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -40.261
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -1855.028 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -2770.58 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 246.986
mean: 18.956
median: 12.548
SMTC: -40.261
low: -89.791
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.055
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 56.58
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.318 %
 Revenue Growth 2.766 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -24.053 %
Revenue Growth YoY -53.792 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 25.112 %
SMTC: 2.766 %
median: -2.391 %
mean: -3.551 %
low: -30.033 %
 Earnings Growth -8.333 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -148.808 %
Earnings Growth YoY -115.476 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 155.23 %
mean: 54.915 %
median: -4.762 %
SMTC: -8.333 %
low: -112.5 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 50.399 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.836 %
Gross Margin YoY -3.066 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 79.726 %
median: 64.709 %
mean: 58.742 %
SMTC: 50.399 %
low: 0.564 %
 EBIT Margin -10.801 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -465.888 %
EBIT Margin YoY -239.584 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 67.863 %
mean: 38.932 %
median: 32.662 %
SMTC: -10.801 %
low: -54.605 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.857 %
Return On Sales QoQ -17.279 %
Return On Sales YoY 27.384 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 67.624 %
mean: 39.168 %
median: 33.067 %
SMTC: 9.857 %
low: -79.417 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 58.4 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.769 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 8.31 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 5.487 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 1.329 %
median: 1.294 %
mean: 0.999 %
SMTC: 0.769 %
low: -2.351 %
 Free Cash Growth 39.138 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 459.354 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 377.584 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 263.082 %
SMTC: 39.138 %
median: 38.554 %
mean: 25.605 %
low: -265.342 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.962
 Cash Flow Margin -5.496 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.506
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -2.116 %
Return On Assets QoQ 937.255 %
Return On Assets YoY -175.625 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 14.706 %
median: 13.379 %
mean: 8.727 %
SMTC: -2.116 %
low: -5.759 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -2.612 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.054
Return On Equity QoQ 971.146 %
Return On Equity YoY -175.111 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.085
mean: 0.029
median: 0.025
SMTC: -0.054
low: -0.099
 DuPont ROE -5.343 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -2.759 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -568.421 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -71.858 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.994 %
median: 2.605 %
mean: 2.596 %
SMTC: -2.759 %
low: -2.915 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum currently favors continuation: bullish directional indicators, a positive MACD cross, rising short‑term EMAs and elevated volume bias the near term toward additional upside attempts. Watch $121.63 as the immediate structural support (super trend lower) and the 20–50 day averages near $114–$94 for broader consolidation support.

Contrasting fundamentals and model signals create asymmetric risk: MRO indicates the market price sits above the internal target, implying greater downside sensitivity should momentum roll over; elevated beta signals that any reversal could compress quickly. Upcoming event cadence (product deployments, industry conferences, and scheduled reports) may act as catalysts for trend extensions or volatility spikes.

Expect a trading environment of two‑way movement driven by headline flow and rotation between AI/interconnect demand narratives and valuation reversion. Positioning that respects technical support and acknowledges fundamental over‑valuation will likely determine how price discovery unfolds over the next six weeks.

About Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) designs, develops, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company delivers signal integrity solutions, offering optical data communications and video transport products for infrastructure and industrial applications. Semtech provides integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, and high-speed interface applications, alongside video products for broadcast and video-over-IP technology for professional audio-visual applications. In the protection segment, Semtech offers devices that integrate filter and termination solutions with transient voltage suppressors to safeguard electronic systems against voltage spikes. The company’s sensing products include specialized radio frequency solutions for industrial, medical, and communications sectors, along with advanced sensing technologies. Semtech also develops power management solutions such as switching voltage regulators, smart regulators, and wireless charging products. Its Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio features modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based solutions for various applications. Serving original equipment manufacturers and industrial markets, Semtech distributes its products directly and through independent sales representatives and distributors across Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe. Founded in 1960, Semtech Corporation maintains its headquarters in Camarillo, California.



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