GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) Accelerates Automation Wins, Expect Near-Term Operational Momentum

Contract wins and technology pilots have pushed operational momentum higher even as margins compress; recent corporate news and mixed technicals point to limited near-term upside until momentum confirms. The current WMDST valuation labels the stock over-valued.

Recent News

May 5, 2026: GXO released first-quarter 2026 results and guidance updates reporting revenue growth and reiterating targets. March 18, 2026: GXO launched an AI-driven autonomous-vehicle pilot in warehouses in collaboration with KION, NVIDIA and Accenture. March 30, 2026: GXO expanded logistics services for NHS England. March 12, 2026: GXO joined Amentum, Accenture and Maersk in a UK defence‑sector supply‑chain alliance. February 25, 2026: GXO began a multi‑year B2B logistics partnership with Hunkemöller in the Netherlands.

Technical Analysis

The ADX sits at 20.82, indicating an emerging trend rather than a clear directional move; DI+ at 19.41 is decreasing while DI‑ at 30.4 shows a dip-and-reversal, both signaling directional weakness that aligns with the valuation pressure noted above.

MACD reads -0.94 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern and the signal line at -0.25; that configuration indicates bearish momentum and suggests momentum must stabilize before price can re-align with WMDST’s valuation context.

MRO equals 11.23 and shows a peak‑and‑reversal; because MRO sits positive, price sits above the model target and this implies downward pressure that would need resolution before the recent operational wins translate into sustained upside.

RSI at 48.2 with a peak‑and‑reversal indicates faded buying pressure and a neutral-to-negative short-term momentum profile; the indicator supports a cautious near-term outlook until RSI reclaims higher ground.

Price sits below most short- and long-term averages (close $51.88 vs 200‑day average $54.10 and 20‑day average $54.90) and near the lower Bollinger band ($50.58 lower 1σ), implying the market currently prices in limited upside despite active volume above the 10‑day average. Elevated short‑term beta (42‑day 1.93) and higher 10‑day vs 200‑day volume reinforce the potential for volatile, range‑bound moves until MACD or DI cross back to bullish behavior.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth shows a healthy trajectory: YoY revenue growth near 11.98% and QoQ growth about 13.37%, supporting the revenue line in the context of recent contract wins and automation deployments. Total revenue stands at $3,507,000,000 with gross profit $425,000,000 and gross margin of 12.12% (gross margin YoY down ~1.54 percentage points).

Profitability compresses: EBIT equals $65,000,000 for an EBIT margin of 1.85%, down 53.05% QoQ and down 37.92% YoY. That margin sits well below the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 19.60% and industry peer median of 10.78%, signaling materially lower operating profit per dollar of sales versus peers despite revenue expansion.

Operating margin registers 3.91%, which improved YoY by roughly 30.85% but remains modest in absolute terms; operating income totals $137,000,000. Net income reached $43,000,000 while EPS beat estimates ($0.50 actual vs $0.37 estimate), producing an EPS surprise ratio of about 35.14%, which supports confidence in near-term earning delivery though margins remain thin.

Leverage and coverage pose constraints: total debt $5,854,000,000 with net debt $2,211,000,000 and debt/EBITDA of ~31.64x, indicating elevated leverage relative to cash flow. Interest coverage reads -65.0 (negative), which, together with debt metrics, increases financial rigidity and weighs on valuation multiples (enterprise multiple ~61.01).

Liquidity mixes cash of $854,000,000 against total current liabilities $3,875,000,000 and a current ratio of 0.85 (below the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.28); free cash flow of $115,000,000 produces a free cash flow yield of ~1.83%, a modest cash return given the capital structure. Book value per share near $26.05 and P/B about 2.11 sit below the industry peer mean P/B of 5.05 and median of 5.25.

Valuation summary: forward EPS about $0.869 and forward P/E roughly 60.25, while trailing P/E sits near 148.38—multiples reflect growth expectations but also the stretched margin and leverage profile. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued, driven by modest cash yields, thin current margins relative to industry peer mean/median, and elevated leverage that constrains upside until margin recovery or leverage reduction materializes.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 344.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 170.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -55.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -25.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 513.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 857.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.5 B
 Forward Revenue 2.0 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.1 B
 Depreciation 91.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 120.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 3.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 425.0 M
 EBITDA 185.0 M
 EBIT 65.0 M
 Operating Income 137.0 M
 Interest Income -31.00 M
 Interest Expense -1.00 M
 Net Interest Income -30.00 M
 Income Before Tax 66.0 M
 Tax Provision 23.0 M
 Tax Rate 34.849 %
 Net Income 43.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 43.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.37
 EPS Actual 0.50
 EPS Difference 0.13
 EPS Surprise 35.135 %
 Forward EPS 0.87
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 12.3 B
 Intangible Assets 4.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.71 B
 Total Current Assets 3.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 854.0 M
 Cash 854.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.0 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 570.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 758.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 446.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.9 B
 Net Debt 2.2 B
 Total Debt 5.9 B
 Total Liabilities 9.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.0 B
 Retained Earnings 718.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 26.05
 Shares Outstanding 114.512 M
 Revenue Per-Share 30.63
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 6.3 B
 Enterprise Value 11.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 61.009
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 37.684 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 137.531 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 187.936
mean: 108.796
median: 96.707
GXO: 61.009
low: -35.353
 EV/R 3.218
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.111
 Asset To Liability 1.326
 Debt To Capital 0.662
 Debt To Assets 0.477
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.335 %
Debt To Assets YoY 4791.496 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.794
GXO: 0.477
mean: 0.187
median: 0.117
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 1.962
Debt To Equity QoQ 5.418 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5257.494 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.844
GXO: 1.962
mean: 0.695
median: 0.173
low: 0.001
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.107
Price To Book QoQ 3.72 %
Price To Book YoY 11.095 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.221
median: 5.252
mean: 5.051
GXO: 2.107
low: 0.232
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 148.377
Price To Earnings QoQ 123.503 %
Price To Earnings YoY 211.237 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 219.55
GXO: 148.377
mean: 41.999
median: 41.949
low: -140.344
 PE/G Ratio -2.791
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.793
Price To Sales QoQ 1.359 %
Price To Sales YoY 2.268 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 17.053
mean: 3.91
median: 3.462
GXO: 1.793
low: 0.815
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 60.25
Forward PE/G -1.133
Forward P/S 3.105
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -15.609
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.29
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.864 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.432 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.761
GXO: 0.29
mean: 0.23
median: 0.194
low: 0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.735
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.306 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 0.541 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.589
mean: 2.04
median: 1.983
GXO: 1.735
low: 1.171
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 52.598
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 27.149
median: 25.694
mean: 5.164
GXO: 0
low: -28.004
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -5.974
 CapEx To Revenue -0.016
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.604
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.0 B
 Invested Capital 6.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.71 B
 Net Working Capital -587.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.22
 Current Ratio 0.849
Current Ratio QoQ 18.962 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.458 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.155
mean: 1.283
median: 1.219
GXO: 0.849
low: 0.829
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 31.643
 Cost Of Debt 0.572 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -65.0
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -2331.346 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -3115.458 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 24.425
mean: 11.616
median: 9.917
low: -7.955
GXO: -65.0
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.05
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 22.605
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.981 %
 Revenue Growth 3.299 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 13.368 %
Revenue Growth YoY 11.982 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 22.302 %
GXO: 3.299 %
mean: 1.532 %
median: -4.737 %
low: -7.198 %
 Earnings Growth -53.165 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -237.747 %
Earnings Growth YoY -300.004 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 88.889 %
mean: 12.513 %
median: 8.602 %
GXO: -53.165 %
low: -75.342 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 12.119 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.037 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.536 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 30.222 %
median: 20.769 %
mean: 18.26 %
GXO: 12.119 %
low: 5.091 %
 EBIT Margin 1.853 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -53.053 %
EBIT Margin YoY -37.923 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 32.197 %
mean: 19.603 %
median: 10.777 %
GXO: 1.853 %
low: -5.813 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.906 %
Return On Sales QoQ -1.761 %
Return On Sales YoY 30.854 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 32.197 %
mean: 19.551 %
median: 10.519 %
GXO: 3.906 %
low: -7.05 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 115.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.829 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 24.761 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 27.102 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.561 %
median: 1.962 %
GXO: 1.829 %
mean: 1.29 %
low: -10.249 %
 Free Cash Growth 30.682 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -110.227 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -245.041 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 242.921 %
GXO: 30.682 %
median: 9.241 %
mean: -3.747 %
low: -504.706 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.674
 Cash Flow Margin 5.475 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 4.465
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.356 %
Return On Assets QoQ -28.081 %
Return On Assets YoY -58.749 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.15 %
median: 2.234 %
mean: 2.126 %
GXO: 0.356 %
low: -5.819 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.775 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.014
Return On Equity QoQ -27.792 %
Return On Equity YoY -56.697 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.11
mean: 0.047
median: 0.032
GXO: 0.014
low: -0.25
 DuPont ROE 1.448 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.7 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -57.082 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -102.768 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.168 %
mean: 3.083 %
median: 2.015 %
GXO: 0.7 %
low: -6.797 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a period of consolidation with a slight downside bias. Technical indicators (bearish MACD, rising DI‑, price below key averages) suggest momentum must flip before sustained gains; the positive EPS surprise and accelerating revenue growth provide a counterweight, but heavy leverage and compressed margins limit conviction. For swing timeframes, anticipate range‑bound volatility tied to headline cadence (contract rollouts, automation pilot milestones, and subsequent updates to guidance) and watch for a MACD cross above its signal line or a DI+ stabilization as the clearest technical evidence that momentum has shifted.

About GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) delivers advanced logistics solutions designed to enhance supply chain efficiency and innovation. Based in Greenwich, Connecticut, GXO offers a comprehensive suite of services, including warehousing, distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce, and reverse logistics. The company operates approximately 974 facilities globally, managing intricate logistics requirements for a varied clientele. GXO serves multiple sectors, addressing the needs of industries such as e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology, consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods. Since its inception in 2021, GXO has quickly become a significant entity in the logistics sector, utilizing cutting-edge technology and data analytics to streamline supply chain operations. GXO emphasizes sustainability and innovation, adopting strategic logistics practices that help clients achieve cost reductions, improved efficiency, and superior service levels. By integrating a global reach with localized expertise, GXO Logistics supports businesses in adapting to the dynamic demands of the market, consistently delivering high-quality logistics services.



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