Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR) Accelerates Margin Recovery While Valuation Remains Elevated

Operational leverage and strong free cash conversion support near-term resilience, but valuation metrics and leverage keep the company classified as over-valued by WMDST.

Recent News

On April 15–16, 2026, American Home Shield expanded its technology partnership with SkySlope, extending an existing integration from four states to 43 states to simplify home-warranty workflows for real-estate professionals.

On February 17, 2026, an institutional filing disclosed a new stake by Breach Inlet Capital Management, which acquired roughly 169,976 shares in the fourth quarter.

Technical Analysis

ADX sits at 24.83, indicating an emerging trend; DI+ at 27.53 is increasing while DI‑ at 14.27 is decreasing, a directional setup that favors the upside in the near term.

MACD stands at 1.84 with the signal line at 1.20 and an increasing MACD trend; MACD has crossed above its signal line, signaling bullish momentum.

MRO reads 19.82 with a dip-and-reversal pattern; the positive MRO indicates price currently sits above the model target and implies a higher probability of mean reversion toward fair value.

RSI at 54.7 and rising confirms room for further upside without immediate overbought risk.

Price sits above key moving averages: close $67.92 versus the 20‑day average $63.68, 50‑day average $61.43 and 200‑day average $60.05; the 12‑day EMA is rising, reinforcing short-term bullish bias.

Bollinger context shows price slightly above the 1× upper band ($67.22) but below the 2× upper band ($70.75), suggesting momentum with limited immediate volatility breakout. Ichimoku levels cluster in the low‑$60s, with the Tenkan at $63.92 and Kijun at $60.46, offering layered support near the mid‑$60s; SuperTrend lower support sits at $60.59.

Short‑term beta (42‑day) at 1.74 implies elevated sensitivity to market moves compared with the one‑year beta of 1.0, so intramarket volatility could amplify directional moves over weeks.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $452.0M for the period; free cash flow registered $113.0M, producing a free cash flow yield of 2.70%, above the industry peer mean of 1.24%, which supports internal funding and capital returns.

EBIT reached $70.0M and EBITDA $90.0M; the EBIT margin equals 15.49%, below the industry peer mean of 18.86% and median of 19.65%, with a quarter‑over‑quarter expansion indicated by an EBIT margin QoQ factor of 204.80% and a modest YoY decline of 1.76%—the QoQ increase implies recent margin recovery driven by operating leverage.

Gross margin sits at 54.87% and operating margin at 14.60%, reflecting service economics and scale; operating leverage (49.72) amplifies small revenue changes into larger margin moves, which supports the near‑term margin improvement narrative.

Profitability metrics show return on equity at 17.75% and return on assets at 1.90%; interest coverage of 3.68x provides coverage of interest expense but coexistence with high leverage demands attention—total debt stands at $1,184.0M and debt‑to‑equity equals 5.13x, while net debt equals $564.0M offset by $603.0M in cash and short‑term investments.

EPS exceeded expectations this quarter: reported EPS $0.73 versus consensus $0.68, a surprise of roughly 7.35%, consistent with the formal release of first‑quarter results on April 30, 2026.

Valuation multiples run rich: trailing P/E ~81.44x, forward P/E ~47.42x, P/B ~18.15x (near the upper end of the industry peer range where the industry peer high sits near 18.76x), and EV/Revenue and enterprise multiple metrics reflect elevated market pricing relative to current earnings. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued, noting that strong cash generation and margin improvement must outpace current multiples to justify present market pricing.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 566.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 119.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 49.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 37.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 603.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 452.0 M
 Forward Revenue 244.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 203.0 M
 Depreciation 8.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 20.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 385.0 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 248.0 M
 EBITDA 90.0 M
 EBIT 70.0 M
 Operating Income 66.0 M
 Interest Income 5.0 M
 Interest Expense 19.0 M
 Net Interest Income -14.00 M
 Income Before Tax 51.0 M
 Tax Provision 10.0 M
 Tax Rate 19.608 %
 Net Income 41.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 41.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.68
 EPS Actual 0.73
 EPS Difference 0.05
 EPS Surprise 7.353 %
 Forward EPS 1.26
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.2 B
 Intangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.11 B
 Total Current Assets 661.0 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 603.0 M
 Cash 603.0 M
 Net Receivables 10.0 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 18.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 87.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 29.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 451.0 M
 Net Debt 564.0 M
 Total Debt 1.2 B
 Total Liabilities 1.9 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 231.0 M
 Retained Earnings 826.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.28
 Shares Outstanding 70.527 M
 Revenue Per-Share 6.41
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.2 B
 Enterprise Value 4.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 53.041
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -49.376 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 20.355 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 114.522
median: 90.121
mean: 83.548
FTDR: 53.041
low: 22.492
 EV/R 10.561
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.368
 Asset To Liability 1.119
 Debt To Capital 0.837
 Debt To Assets 0.547
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.599 %
Debt To Assets YoY -4.331 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.456
mean: 0.742
median: 0.631
FTDR: 0.547
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 5.126
Debt To Equity QoQ 4.146 %
Debt To Equity YoY -16.335 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.928
FTDR: 5.126
mean: 0.134
median: 0.067
low: -5.69
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 18.15
Price To Book QoQ 7.397 %
Price To Book YoY 10.26 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 18.76
FTDR: 18.15
median: 2.299
mean: 1.514
low: -12.042
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 81.435
Price To Earnings QoQ -67.503 %
Price To Earnings YoY 18.775 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 249.745
mean: 124.69
median: 105.586
FTDR: 81.435
low: -56.366
 PE/G Ratio 0.375
 Price To Sales (P/S) 9.276
Price To Sales QoQ -1.794 %
Price To Sales YoY 20.952 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 24.211
mean: 15.866
median: 14.625
FTDR: 9.276
low: 0.394
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.416
Forward PE/G 0.218
Forward P/S 17.166
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 49.722
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.21
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.918 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 4.427 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.533
mean: 0.224
FTDR: 0.21
median: 0.177
low: 0.059
 Receivables Turnover 45.2
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.388 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 11.671 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA FTDR: 45.2
high: 38.594
mean: 9.269
median: 2.467
low: 0.731
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 2.019
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -34.481
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 10.35 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 8.463 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 118.558
mean: 2.883
median: -0.731
FTDR: -34.481
low: -88.233
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.152
 CapEx To Revenue -0.013
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.75
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.4 B
 Invested Capital 1.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.11 B
 Net Working Capital 210.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.337
 Current Ratio 1.466
Current Ratio QoQ -5.58 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.526 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.745
FTDR: 1.466
mean: 0.748
median: 0.608
low: 0.387
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 13.156
 Cost Of Debt 1.286 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.684
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 234.928 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 4.477 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.768
mean: 12.923
median: 4.198
FTDR: 3.684
low: -21.413
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.131
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 36.5
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.027 %
 Revenue Growth 4.388 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -114.714 %
Revenue Growth YoY -59.985 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 25.947 %
FTDR: 4.388 %
median: -3.269 %
mean: -3.688 %
low: -18.131 %
 Earnings Growth 217.391 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -354.428 %
Earnings Growth YoY 58.637 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA FTDR: 217.391 %
high: 182.143 %
mean: -8.297 %
median: -10.903 %
low: -200.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 54.867 %
Gross Margin QoQ 11.536 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.772 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 75.902 %
FTDR: 54.867 %
mean: 30.739 %
median: 29.043 %
low: -6.013 %
 EBIT Margin 15.487 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 204.802 %
EBIT Margin YoY -1.763 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 34.862 %
median: 19.646 %
mean: 18.858 %
FTDR: 15.487 %
low: -19.957 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 14.602 %
Return On Sales QoQ 216.129 %
Return On Sales YoY -7.377 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 37.003 %
median: 20.493 %
mean: 18.517 %
FTDR: 14.602 %
low: -18.79 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 113.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.695 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 16.014 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -24.93 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.633 %
FTDR: 2.695 %
mean: 1.242 %
median: 0.826 %
low: -1.116 %
 Free Cash Growth 18.947 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -70.299 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -85.86 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 612.824 %
mean: 121.958 %
median: 103.007 %
FTDR: 18.947 %
low: -460.214 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.756
 Cash Flow Margin 13.053 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.439
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.904 %
Return On Assets QoQ 1969.565 %
Return On Assets YoY 8.8 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.688 %
mean: 2.721 %
FTDR: 1.904 %
median: 1.594 %
low: -3.946 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.086 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.177
Return On Equity QoQ 2048.789 %
Return On Equity YoY -5.02 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.315
FTDR: 0.177
mean: 0.028
median: 0.012
low: -0.065
 DuPont ROE 17.337 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.025 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 227.769 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 8.403 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 18.09 %
mean: 8.091 %
median: 4.934 %
FTDR: 4.025 %
low: -4.87 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum and rising short‑term indicators favor continued price resilience over the next six weeks, with layered support in the low‑$60s (SuperTrend and Ichimoku Kijun) and immediate resistance clustered near the upper Bollinger band and the $69–$71 zone where the 52‑week high and consensus price target mean converge. The positive free cash flow profile and improving quarter‑over‑quarter margins underpin fundamental support, but elevated leverage and premium valuation amplify downside risk if momentum weakens or cash conversion underperforms. Volatility may remain above one‑year norms given the 42‑day beta, so expect pronounced intramarket moves while fundamentals and momentum resolve toward fair value.

About Frontdoor, Inc.

Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR) delivers comprehensive home service plans across the United States, safeguarding homeowners from unexpected repair costs. Established in 1971, Frontdoor crafts customizable home warranties that encompass a broad spectrum of essential home systems and appliances, such as electrical, plumbing, HVAC, and major kitchen devices. These service plans provide repair and replacement solutions for over 20 critical home components, ensuring peace of mind for homeowners. In addition to traditional warranties, Frontdoor enhances the homeowner experience with innovative services, including an intuitive app that simplifies home repair and maintenance tasks. Their advanced Streem technology enables homeowners to engage with experts via video chat, facilitating real-time problem-solving and diagnostics. Frontdoor operates under well-known brands like American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark Home Warranty, and Streem. The company remains committed to delivering exceptional service and support, empowering homeowners to maintain and protect their most valuable asset—their home. Headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, Frontdoor continually evolves its offerings, adapting to the needs of homeowners nationwide.



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