Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) Accelerates Unit Growth While Near-Term Momentum Softens

Hilton enters 2026 with continued unit expansion and product launches, yet technical momentum shows signs of a near-term pullback. Fundamentals show solid margins and heavy leverage, producing mixed valuation signals.

Recent News

On January 26, 2026 Hilton reported 6.7% net unit growth for 2025 and a record development pipeline of roughly 520,000 rooms; in March the company unveiled an AI travel-planning tool (Hilton AI Planner); and on March 19, 2026 Hilton announced an exclusive agreement to integrate YOTEL into a new Select by Hilton platform, extending distribution and Hilton Honors access to YOTEL properties.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 27.93 signals a strong directional regime in place; that strength amplifies the near-term bias implied by other indicators and increases the likelihood that recent directional moves persist for several weeks.

DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal while DI- shows a dip-and-reversal; both patterns indicate rising selling pressure and therefore a bearish directional signal despite the ADX strength.

MACD displays a peak-and-reversal, a bearish momentum shift. Although the MACD value (8.28) currently sits above the signal (6.71), the peak-and-reversal pattern implies weakening bullish momentum and higher odds of a corrective phase.

MRO stands at 34.01 and is increasing; because MRO is positive, price sits above its MRO target and carries measurable downside potential from current levels, pointing toward a likely mean reversion pressure.

RSI at 58.44 with an increasing trend indicates room to the upside but not overbought conditions; combined with MACD and MRO, the RSI suggests rallies may face resistance and be vulnerable to pullbacks rather than runaway continuation.

Price sits above the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages (20-day: $329.35; 50-day: $311.71; 200-day: $285.59) and the 12-day EMA is increasing, which supports an overall positive price bias; however, Bollinger bands and an elevated MRO warn that pullbacks toward the super trend lower at $325.02 would align with technical mean reversion.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $3,087,000,000 for the period; operating income reached $602,000,000 and EBIT equaled $594,000,000. EBIT margin sits at 19.24%, below the industry peer mean of 22.513% but above the industry peer median of 12.099%, indicating margin performance better than the median peer but shy of the peer mean. QoQ EBIT margin compressed by about 21.32%, while YoY EBIT margin expanded by 8.62%.

EPS came in at $2.08 versus an estimate of $2.02, a $0.06 beat and an EPS surprise of roughly 2.97%. Forward EPS stands at $2.6124 with a forward PE near 105.89; trailing PE registers about 140.0 and rose ~11.73% QoQ, reflecting elevated multiple compression risk if earnings growth slows.

Free cash flow totaled $151,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of approximately 0.23%; that yield declined sharply QoQ (about -81.90%) and YoY (about -73.31%), signaling deteriorating cash conversion relative to prior periods despite positive operating cash flow of $203,000,000.

Leverage metrics highlight material financial burden: total debt near $13.09B, net debt approximately $11.445B, and debt-to-EBITDA around 20.43. Interest coverage sits at 3.6x, which provides coverage but leaves limited cushion if operating trends deteriorate. Return on assets equals roughly 1.78% and return on equity sits near -5.51%.

Asset turnover at 0.1848 compares slightly below the industry peer mean of 0.20313, indicating lower revenue generation per asset. Gross margin stands near 25.95% with YoY improvement of about 7.94%.

The current valuation as determined by WMDST: under-valued. That view balances a large development pipeline and above-median margin performance against an elevated trailing multiple, compressed free cash flow yield, and high leverage; the WMDST valuation reflects those offsetting signals.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-11
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-13
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 203.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -52.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 4.0 M
 Dividends Paid -35.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -156.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 970.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.1 B
 Forward Revenue 1.6 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 2.3 B
 Depreciation 47.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 47.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 2.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 801.0 M
 EBITDA 641.0 M
 EBIT 594.0 M
 Operating Income 602.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 165.0 M
 Net Interest Income -165.00 M
 Income Before Tax 429.0 M
 Tax Provision 131.0 M
 Tax Rate 30.536 %
 Net Income 297.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 298.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.02
 EPS Actual 2.08
 EPS Difference 0.06
 EPS Surprise 2.97 %
 Forward EPS 2.61
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 16.8 B
 Intangible Assets 11.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets -17.17 B
 Total Current Assets 3.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 918.0 M
 Cash 918.0 M
 Net Receivables 1.7 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 484.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 376.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 25.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 4.5 B
 Net Debt 11.4 B
 Total Debt 13.1 B
 Total Liabilities 22.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity -5.39 B
 Retained Earnings -1.51 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share -23.38
 Shares Outstanding 230.433 M
 Revenue Per-Share 13.40
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 67.1 B
 Enterprise Value 79.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 123.675
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 37.228 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 11.678 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 130.17
HLT: 123.675
mean: 75.968
median: 73.484
low: -2.827
 EV/R 25.68
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity -3.113
 Asset To Liability 0.758
 Debt To Capital 1.699
 Debt To Assets 0.781
Debt To Assets QoQ 5.167 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2310.593 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.609
median: 0.79
HLT: 0.781
mean: 0.707
low: 0.019
 Debt To Equity -2.43
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.964 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1592.811 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 12.912
median: 0.252
mean: 0.177
HLT: -2.43
low: -8.585
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) -12.454
Price To Book QoQ -0.315 %
Price To Book YoY -22.228 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 26.123
median: 3.693
mean: 0.285
HLT: -12.454
low: -26.316
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 139.996
Price To Earnings QoQ 11.728 %
Price To Earnings YoY -0.17 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 247.068
HLT: 139.996
mean: 125.042
median: 100.951
low: -96.27
 PE/G Ratio 8.306
 Price To Sales (P/S) 21.736
Price To Sales QoQ 10.066 %
Price To Sales YoY 1.36 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 27.836
HLT: 21.736
mean: 13.149
median: 10.375
low: 0.273
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 105.893
Forward PE/G 6.283
Forward P/S 42.967
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 20.941
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.185
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.63 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.245 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.603
mean: 0.203
HLT: 0.185
median: 0.168
low: 0.063
 Receivables Turnover 1.847
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.472 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 5.547 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 47.268
mean: 8.166
median: 3.174
HLT: 1.847
low: 0.996
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 49.394
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 49.394
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 1.494 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 84.283
HLT: 49.394
mean: 3.058
median: 2.075
low: -80.186
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -2.042
 CapEx To Revenue -0.017
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.106
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 7.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 7.0 B
 Invested Capital 7.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -17.17 B
 Net Working Capital -1.51 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.204
 Current Ratio 0.665
Current Ratio QoQ 0.105 %
Current Ratio YoY -4.535 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.73
mean: 1.015
median: 0.979
HLT: 0.665
low: 0.36
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 20.426
 Cost Of Debt 0.901 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.6
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -24.98 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 14.645 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 16.489
mean: 6.026
median: 5.827
HLT: 3.6
low: -12.905
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.068
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 8.486
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.118
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.001
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.799 %
 Revenue Growth -1.058 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 95.203 %
Revenue Growth YoY -63.891 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 27.02 %
mean: -0.261 %
median: -0.664 %
HLT: -1.058 %
low: -38.858 %
 Earnings Growth 16.854 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -511.978 %
Earnings Growth YoY -302.256 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 366.667 %
mean: 33.945 %
HLT: 16.854 %
median: -9.357 %
low: -360.784 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 25.948 %
Gross Margin QoQ -13.966 %
Gross Margin YoY 7.941 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.469 %
median: 44.493 %
mean: 41.655 %
HLT: 25.948 %
low: -4.539 %
 EBIT Margin 19.242 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -21.317 %
EBIT Margin YoY 8.62 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 58.736 %
mean: 22.513 %
HLT: 19.242 %
median: 12.099 %
low: -35.819 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 19.501 %
Return On Sales QoQ -21.695 %
Return On Sales YoY 10.082 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 45.049 %
mean: 23.053 %
HLT: 19.501 %
median: 14.729 %
low: -37.15 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 151.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.225 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -81.899 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -73.31 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.195 %
mean: 1.077 %
median: 0.741 %
HLT: 0.225 %
low: -4.042 %
 Free Cash Growth -80.287 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -426.995 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 334.548 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 149.518 %
mean: -25.949 %
median: -39.842 %
HLT: -80.287 %
low: -365.169 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.508
 Cash Flow Margin 9.913 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.03
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.778 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.112 %
Return On Assets YoY -41.532 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.953 %
mean: 2.474 %
median: 1.819 %
HLT: 1.778 %
low: -1.777 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.843 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.055
Return On Equity QoQ -35.275 %
Return On Equity YoY -59.321 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.437
median: 0.026
mean: 0.015
HLT: -0.055
low: -0.363
 DuPont ROE -5.756 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.916 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -25.407 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -111.635 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 20.375 %
mean: 6.485 %
median: 6.096 %
HLT: 5.916 %
low: -5.359 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect choppy, range-bound action with heightened sensitivity to headline cadence and liquidity. Technical momentum indicators (MACD peak-and-reversal, rising MRO) favor a corrective bias from current levels, while price remaining above key moving averages supports a higher-low framework rather than a full trend reversal. Traders should anticipate volatility around roughly $325–$345, with any sustained move below the super trend lower ($325.02) increasing the probability of deeper mean reversion toward the 50-day average.

About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) designs a comprehensive range of hospitality services, maintaining a prominent presence in the global hotel industry. Founded in 1919 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Hilton manages and franchises a broad spectrum of hotels and resorts across North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company’s diverse brand portfolio includes luxury accommodations such as Waldorf Astoria and Conrad Hotels & Resorts, as well as lifestyle brands like Canopy and Curio Collection. Hilton offers full-service hospitality through Hilton Hotels & Resorts and DoubleTree by Hilton, while providing more budget-friendly options with Hilton Garden Inn and Hampton by Hilton. The company prioritizes innovation and sustainability, integrating environmentally conscious practices into its operations to enhance guest experiences. Hilton’s commitment to quality service and strategic global expansion ensures its continued influence in the hospitality sector, making it a preferred choice for travelers seeking comfort and reliability.



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