Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Rebounds As Momentum And Guidance Suggest Near-Term Upside

Centene shows early signs of stabilization after its year-end disclosures and 2026 guidance, with technical momentum aligning with valuation that WMDST deems under-valued. Fundamentals remain mixed but contain specific cash-flow and margin datapoints that frame near-term upside potential.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 20.18 signals an emerging trend strength; DI+ at 27.77 is increasing while DI- at 22.52 is decreasing, a directional setup that places bias toward buyers and supports the valuation gap identified by WMDST.

MACD: MACD stands at 0.15 and sits above the signal line at -0.46, a bullish momentum confirmation that implies recent price acceleration versus the prior signal baseline.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -23.72 reads negative, indicating the market price sits below the model target and therefore implies upward potential toward that valuation anchor.

RSI: RSI at 50.04, trending higher, indicates neutral-to-slightly-positive momentum with room for further appreciation before reaching overbought levels.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Ichimoku: Last close $39.14 sits above the 12-day EMA ($37.51), 20-day average ($37.13) and 50-day average ($38.29), supporting short-term upside. Price lies under the Ichimoku cloud (Senkou A $40.43 / Senkou B $41.67), which tempers the bullish moving-average picture by indicating medium-term resistance around the cloud band.

Bollinger & Volatility: Price near the 1x upper Bollinger band ($38.79) but below the 2x upper band ($40.44) suggests a modest extension rather than extreme overbought conditions; 42-day volatility at 3% and 52-week volatility at 4% reflect below-average historical volatility for this profile.

Volume: Today’s volume (3,655,563) runs below 10-day and 50-day averages, implying recent moves occur without heavy conviction; that dynamic increases sensitivity to fresh information or catalyst-driven volume.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & margins: EBIT recorded $-1,375,000,000 and EBIT margin at -2.77%. QoQ movement in EBIT margin registered -78.88% and YoY movement -317.37%, signaling sizeable margin deterioration over both horizons. Operating income stands negative at $-1,232,000,000 and operating margin at -2.48%, while gross margin sits at 4.96%.

Earnings per share: Reported EPS equaled $-1.19 versus an estimate of $-1.22, producing a positive surprise of roughly 2.46% (EPS surprise ratio 0.02459). Forward EPS consensus shown at $0.99 implies a material shift in forward profitability relative to trailing results; forward PE appears near 37.67 on that forward EPS.

Cash flow and liquidity: Operating cash flow totaled $437,000,000 with free cash flow $224,000,000 and a free cash flow yield of ~1.11%. Cash and short-term investments equaled $20,320,000,000 supporting a cash ratio of 0.554 and a current ratio of 1.10. Cash conversion dynamics (cashConversionRatio 13.53) and a positive cash flow delta of $772,000,000 reflect functioning cash generation despite negative net income.

Leverage and capital structure: Total debt totals $18,162,000,000 with debt-to-equity about 0.91 and debt-to-assets ~0.24. Interest expense near $168,000,000 and an interest coverage metric negative at -8.18 reflect earnings shortfalls versus interest obligations; capital structure shows meaningful leverage but sizable cash buffers.

Growth and efficiency: Reported total revenue $49,725,000,000 with revenue growth effectively flat at 0.07% on the base metric; the reported YoY revenue change in the dataset shows a larger negative figure, underscoring mixed growth signals. Asset turnover at 0.626 indicates moderate revenue generation from assets, while receivables turnover of 2.41 suggests collection cadence consistent with large managed-care payables/receivables cycles.

Valuation context: Price-to-book stands ~1.02, price-to-sales ~0.41 and enterprise value roughly $18.11B. The current valuation as determined by WMDST labels the stock under-valued relative to the firm’s cash-flow profile and adjusted risk factors; book value per share reads $40.57 while the share count equals 491,757,000.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-08
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 17.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 437.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -213.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 723.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 772.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 18.0 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 49.7 B
 Forward Revenue -5.52 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 47.3 B
 Depreciation 160.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 329.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 51.0 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 2.5 B
 EBITDA -1.05 B
 EBIT -1.38 B
 Operating Income -1.23 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 168.0 M
 Net Interest Income -168.00 M
 Income Before Tax -1.54 B
 Tax Provision -443.00 M
 Tax Rate 28.71 %
 Net Income -1.10 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -1.10 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -1.22
 EPS Actual -1.19
 EPS Difference 0.03
 EPS Surprise 2.459 %
 Forward EPS 0.99
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 76.7 B
 Intangible Assets 15.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 4.6 B
 Total Current Assets 40.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 20.3 B
 Cash 17.9 B
 Net Receivables 18.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 1.6 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 13.6 B
 Short-Term Debt 50.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 36.7 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 18.2 B
 Total Liabilities 56.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 20.0 B
 Retained Earnings 8.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 40.57
 Shares Outstanding 491.757 M
 Revenue Per-Share 101.12
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 20.3 B
 Enterprise Value 18.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple -17.31
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 588.607 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -198.204 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 169.984
median: 51.214
mean: 46.412
CNC: -17.31
low: -93.578
 EV/R 0.364
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.846
 Asset To Liability 1.354
 Debt To Capital 0.477
 Debt To Assets 0.237
Debt To Assets QoQ 10.481 %
Debt To Assets YoY 17693.233 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.927
mean: 0.353
median: 0.264
CNC: 0.237
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.91
Debt To Equity QoQ 8.445 %
Debt To Equity YoY 21728.297 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.121
mean: 0.976
CNC: 0.91
median: 0.754
low: -1.835
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.016
Price To Book QoQ 23.642 %
Price To Book YoY -14.192 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 9.281
mean: 2.163
median: 1.75
CNC: 1.016
low: -0.324
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -34.628
Price To Earnings QoQ -149.448 %
Price To Earnings YoY -143.95 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 223.057
median: 71.489
mean: 61.092
CNC: -34.628
low: -73.764
 PE/G Ratio 0.102
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.408
Price To Sales QoQ 17.685 %
Price To Sales YoY -46.8 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 14.8
mean: 2.598
median: 1.008
CNC: 0.408
low: 0.027
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 37.668
Forward PE/G -0.111
Forward P/S -3.535
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1119.575
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.626
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.149 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 26.435 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.261
CNC: 0.626
mean: 0.544
median: 0.415
low: 0.013
 Receivables Turnover 2.413
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.44 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 12.339 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.521
median: 3.758
mean: 3.62
CNC: 2.413
low: 0.053
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 37.816
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 33.528
CNC: 0
mean: -1.551
median: -7.057
low: -17.884
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 13.534
 CapEx To Revenue -0.004
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.331
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 37.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 37.4 B
 Invested Capital 37.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 4.6 B
 Net Working Capital 3.7 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.554
 Current Ratio 1.1
Current Ratio QoQ 1.443 %
Current Ratio YoY -0.81 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.726
CNC: 1.1
mean: 1.075
median: 0.965
low: 0.244
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -17.363
 Cost Of Debt 0.961 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -8.185
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -78.607 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -371.241 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 26.873
mean: 7.588
median: 5.671
CNC: -8.185
low: -9.664
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.027
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 29.968
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -6.505 %
 Revenue Growth 0.07 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -96.401 %
Revenue Growth YoY -102.415 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.35 %
median: 2.743 %
mean: 2.433 %
CNC: 0.07 %
low: -7.264 %
 Earnings Growth -338.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -18.061 %
Earnings Growth YoY 567.76 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 220.0 %
median: -5.274 %
mean: -21.507 %
low: -249.457 %
CNC: -338.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 4.961 %
Gross Margin QoQ -24.179 %
Gross Margin YoY -45.585 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.255 %
mean: 25.775 %
median: 12.836 %
CNC: 4.961 %
low: -5.777 %
 EBIT Margin -2.765 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -78.875 %
EBIT Margin YoY -317.374 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 20.352 %
mean: 5.696 %
median: 2.026 %
CNC: -2.765 %
low: -39.27 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -2.478 %
Return On Sales QoQ 483.059 %
Return On Sales YoY -294.811 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 20.384 %
mean: 7.502 %
median: 1.998 %
CNC: -2.478 %
low: -10.112 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 224.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.105 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -83.393 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -146.605 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.984 %
mean: 1.578 %
CNC: 1.105 %
median: 1.041 %
low: -12.708 %
 Free Cash Growth -80.437 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 193.63 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 133.266 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 184.763 %
mean: -61.846 %
median: -72.187 %
CNC: -80.437 %
low: -369.889 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.203
 Cash Flow Margin 1.981 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.895
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -1.386 %
Return On Assets QoQ -82.391 %
Return On Assets YoY -504.082 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.352 %
mean: 1.289 %
median: 1.157 %
CNC: -1.386 %
low: -13.174 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -3.433 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.055
Return On Equity QoQ -82.568 %
Return On Equity YoY -614.739 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.486
median: 0.023
CNC: -0.055
mean: -0.055
low: -0.604
 DuPont ROE -5.383 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -2.624 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -84.357 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 3.839 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.875 %
mean: 2.576 %
median: 2.088 %
CNC: -2.624 %
low: -4.467 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical signals collectively favor a near-term bullish bias: ADX at the cusp of an emerging trend, DI+ rising, MACD having crossed above its signal line, RSI moving up from neutral and an MRO that implies upside toward model targets. Price trading above short- and medium-term averages strengthens the case for continued drift higher, while the Ichimoku cloud overhead and relatively light volume counsel caution against extended rallies without catalysts. Fundamentals offer a constructive backdrop in cash generation and a large cash balance, but negative trailing profitability and elevated margin compression remain constraints on sustained gains absent improving margins or clearer policy/backlog resolution. For swing horizons, expect asymmetric mean-reversion toward valuation anchors with sensitivity to earnings-related guidance or policy developments that could quickly change the technical momentum profile.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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