Par Pacific Holdings, Inc (NYSE:PARR) Poised For Near-Term Pullback Despite Undervaluation

Momentum indicators show weakening near-term price action even as fundamental cash generation and WMDST’s model classify the name as undervalued. Technical signals point to short-term contraction; fundamental metrics highlight below-peer margins, positive free cash flow yield, and elevated leverage.

Recent News

April 8, 2026: A major brokerage raised its price target on Par Pacific to $77. March 2026: the company issued 2026 capital-expenditure guidance of $190–$220 million. Late February–March 2026: management completed share repurchases under the existing buyback program and analysts revised 2026 revenue forecasts upward in the weeks following the company’s fourth-quarter release.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators and ADX: ADX at 37.29 signals a strong trend strength; DI+ has peaked and reversed while DI– sits at 17.07 and shows an increasing trajectory — together these readings indicate dominant bearish directional pressure driving near-term price risk despite the established trend strength.

MACD: MACD sits at 3.76 below the signal line at 4.27 with a peak-and-reverse MACD trend, reflecting declining bullish momentum and a momentum-based bearish bias for the coming sessions.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 42.1 with a peak-and-reverse trend indicates price currently sits above the model target and carries material downside potential from a momentum exhaustion perspective.

RSI: RSI reads 62.08 and shows a peak-and-reverse, implying momentum is cooling from higher levels and diminishing the likelihood of an immediate continuation to new highs without renewed buying intensity.

Price vs moving averages and bands: the $62.77 close trades above the 20-day ($62.46), 50-day ($50.20) and 200-day ($39.51) averages, giving a longer-term bullish profile; however the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal and price sits below the upper Bollinger 1σ band ($65.07), suggesting near-term consolidation or pullback around current levels rather than a sustained breakout.

Secondary overlays: Ichimoku Tenkan at 61.81 above Kijun at 56.06 provides residual support for the trend, but the collection of peak-and-reverse signals across short-term indicators favors a period of mean reversion before higher targets regain traction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT of $110,638,000 and EBITDA of $147,381,000 yield an EBIT margin of 6.10%. That margin sits below the industry peer mean of 11.35% and the industry peer median of 10.82%, indicating lower operating profitability relative to peers. Quarter-over-quarter, EBIT margin fell roughly 66.5%; year-over-year the margin value declined approximately 320.1% (both QoQ and YoY figures as reported).

Earnings and valuation multiples: Reported EPS of $1.17 missed the $1.29 estimate, an EPS surprise of -9.30%. Trailing PE stands at 33.58 and forward PE at 38.06. Price-to-book at 1.29 falls below the industry peer mean of 1.85 and median of 1.89, while WMDST’s current valuation model marks the stock as under-valued.

Cash flow and capital allocation: Free cash flow totaled $66,265,000 with a free cash flow yield of 3.39%, above the industry peer mean of about 1.39%. Operating cash flow of $93,800,000 and a cash conversion ratio around 2.71x confirm meaningful cash generation relative to reported net income; capital expenditures of $27,535,000 and 2026 guidance for $190–$220 million indicate ongoing investment activity.

Leverage and coverage: Total debt of $1,226,880,000 produces a debt-to-EBITDA near 8.32x and debt-to-assets at 32.00%, both reflecting elevated leverage compared with the industry peer mean debt-to-assets of ~20.99%. Interest coverage at 6.45x sits modestly above the industry peer mean of ~6.02x, offering some cushion but limited flexibility if margins compress further.

Growth and efficiency: Total revenue reported at $1,813,240,000; trailing revenue growth shows declines (year-over-year revenue contraction ~31.76% as reported and a reported revenue-growth figure of -9.92% on the other measure). Asset turnover stands near 0.46x, above the industry peer mean of 0.1510x but below the peer high, indicating relatively efficient use of assets versus some peers. Return on equity registers at 5.14% and return on assets at 1.97%.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on a combination of P/B below peer mean and a free cash flow yield above the industry peer mean. That valuation advantage sits against lower-than-peer operating margins and elevated leverage, which constrain upside until margins or leverage metrics show sustainable improvement.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-24
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-26
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 159.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 93.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -27.54 M
 Change In Working Capital -39.98 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 5.1 M
 End Period Cash Flow 164.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.8 B
 Forward Revenue 372.4 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.5 B
 Depreciation 36.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 36.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.7 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 273.2 M
 EBITDA 147.4 M
 EBIT 110.6 M
 Operating Income 90.5 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 17.2 M
 Net Interest Income -17.16 M
 Income Before Tax 93.5 M
 Tax Provision 18.1 M
 Tax Rate 19.345 %
 Net Income 77.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 75.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.29
 EPS Actual 1.17
 EPS Difference -0.12
 EPS Surprise -9.302 %
 Forward EPS 1.28
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.8 B
 Intangible Assets 136.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.4 B
 Total Current Assets 1.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 164.1 M
 Cash 164.1 M
 Net Receivables 312.7 M
 Inventory 1.2 B
 Long-Term Investments 197.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 341.6 M
 Short-Term Debt 4.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.1 B
 Net Debt 638.8 M
 Total Debt 1.2 B
 Total Liabilities 2.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.5 B
 Retained Earnings 541.4 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 30.42
 Shares Outstanding 49.685 M
 Revenue Per-Share 36.49
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.0 B
 Enterprise Value 3.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 20.457
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 174.182 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -142.648 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 50.173
median: 33.466
mean: 27.643
PARR: 20.457
low: -72.641
 EV/R 1.663
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.536
 Asset To Liability 1.681
 Debt To Capital 0.448
 Debt To Assets 0.32
Debt To Assets QoQ -7.693 %
Debt To Assets YoY 24902.344 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.65
PARR: 0.32
mean: 0.21
median: 0.204
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.812
Debt To Equity QoQ -19.825 %
Debt To Equity YoY 19697.073 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.421
PARR: 0.812
mean: 0.659
median: 0.434
low: 0.008
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.291
Price To Book QoQ 2.93 %
Price To Book YoY 61.981 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 4.744
median: 1.895
mean: 1.849
PARR: 1.291
low: -1.67
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 33.581
Price To Earnings QoQ 473.226 %
Price To Earnings YoY -256.277 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 140.369
mean: 66.136
median: 62.75
PARR: 33.581
low: -120.105
 PE/G Ratio -0.418
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.077
Price To Sales QoQ 23.718 %
Price To Sales YoY 107.675 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.166
mean: 7.642
median: 6.546
PARR: 1.077
low: -2.28
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 38.063
Forward PE/G -0.474
Forward P/S 6.572
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 7.038
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.458
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.216 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -3.885 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA PARR: 0.458
high: 0.383
median: 0.17
mean: 0.151
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 5.48
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.135 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 23.8 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.614
PARR: 5.48
mean: 2.132
median: 1.976
low: 0.195
 Inventory Turnover 1.194
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.144 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -24.703 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 18.206
mean: 2.994
median: 2.518
PARR: 1.194
low: 0.238
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 16.652
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 71.494
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 21.403 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 42.178 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 120.172
PARR: 71.494
median: 10.799
mean: 2.391
low: -122.473
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.707
 CapEx To Revenue -0.015
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.749
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.3 B
 Invested Capital 2.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.4 B
 Net Working Capital 670.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.148
 Current Ratio 1.606
Current Ratio QoQ 6.003 %
Current Ratio YoY -0.677 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.027
PARR: 1.606
median: 1.263
mean: 1.219
low: 0.33
 Quick Ratio 0.495
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.649 %
Quick Ratio YoY -20.573 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.705
median: 0.914
mean: 0.907
PARR: 0.495
low: 0.398
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.325
 Cost Of Debt 1.048 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.449
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -62.583 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -367.428 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 28.951
median: 6.462
PARR: 6.449
mean: 6.02
low: -29.945
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.151
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 24.166
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -5.958 %
 Revenue Growth -9.921 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -257.202 %
Revenue Growth YoY -31.763 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 53.032 %
mean: -1.712 %
median: -3.951 %
PARR: -9.921 %
low: -63.186 %
 Earnings Growth -80.336 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -128.054 %
Earnings Growth YoY -111.643 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 462.5 %
mean: 1.701 %
median: -19.048 %
PARR: -80.336 %
low: -194.231 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 15.068 %
Gross Margin QoQ -42.002 %
Gross Margin YoY 131.922 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 69.391 %
mean: 21.541 %
median: 19.958 %
PARR: 15.068 %
low: -22.31 %
 EBIT Margin 6.102 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -66.496 %
EBIT Margin YoY -320.05 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.267 %
mean: 11.353 %
median: 10.815 %
PARR: 6.102 %
low: -130.344 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.991 %
Return On Sales QoQ -71.632 %
Return On Sales YoY -279.986 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 95.267 %
mean: 9.993 %
median: 7.5 %
PARR: 4.991 %
low: -56.401 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 66.3 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.394 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -68.221 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -151.053 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.376 %
PARR: 3.394 %
mean: 1.391 %
median: 1.02 %
low: -9.877 %
 Free Cash Growth -64.579 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -154.3 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -71.412 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 323.65 %
mean: -8.547 %
median: -10.314 %
PARR: -64.579 %
low: -255.102 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.853
 Cash Flow Margin 9.233 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.155
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.965 %
Return On Assets QoQ -70.178 %
Return On Assets YoY -235.517 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.669 %
PARR: 1.965 %
median: 0.997 %
mean: 0.788 %
low: -7.748 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.056 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.051
Return On Equity QoQ -72.677 %
Return On Equity YoY -209.947 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.14
PARR: 0.051
median: 0.024
mean: 0.01
low: -0.197
 DuPont ROE 5.344 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.856 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -67.316 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -81.681 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.758 %
PARR: 3.856 %
median: 1.981 %
mean: 1.855 %
low: -11.925 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should favor consolidation or a pullback. Short-term momentum indicators — DI+ peaked and reversed, rising DI–, MACD below its signal, MRO positive and peaked, and RSI peak-and-reversing — collectively point to downside pressure or range-bound trading before higher targets reassert. Longer-term moving averages and the WMDST undervaluation flag provide a context where rebounds remain possible if momentum indicators re-accelerate and cash-flow fundamentals hold. Monitor changes in MACD direction, MRO movement toward zero, and ADX for any shift from current strong trend strength to trend weakening; those would materially alter the six-week technical outlook.

About Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) manages a diverse portfolio of energy and infrastructure businesses. Through its Refining segment, the company operates refineries that produce gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products, primarily serving markets in Kapolei, Hawaii; Newcastle, Wyoming; Tacoma, Washington; and Billings, Montana. The Retail segment runs fuel retail outlets, offering gasoline, diesel, and merchandise under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands in Hawaii, as well as in Washington and Idaho. In its Logistics segment, Par Pacific Holdings owns and operates a network of terminals, pipelines, marine vessels, and storage facilities. These assets facilitate the distribution of ethanol, petroleum, and refined products across Hawaii, the U.S. West Coast, Washington, the Dakotas, and Wyoming. Additionally, the company maintains a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline servicing Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. Par Pacific Holdings also controls a marine terminal, a rail loading terminal, a truck rack, and a proprietary pipeline supporting Joint Base Lewis McChord. Established in 1984 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company previously operated under the name Par Petroleum Corporation until 2015.



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