Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASDAQ:GSHD) Positioned To Rebound As Momentum And Valuation Align

Momentum indicators and a WMDST valuation that labels the stock under-valued combine with operational signals to suggest an immediate positive bias for the share price. Company-level corporate actions and product rollouts reinforce that near-term catalysts exist.

Recent News

Feb. 17, 2026 — Company expanded its share repurchase authorization and updated 2026 outlook while announcing a board change and broader capital-allocation priorities; Feb. 5, 2026 — strategic franchise partnership announced with Planet Insurance Agency to streamline homeowners insurance shopping; March 30, 2026 — appointment of Martin Thornthwaite as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 33.07 signals a strong trend environment; DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal while DI- trends lower, a combination that aligns directional momentum toward the upside and supports nearer-term bullish price bias.

MACD: MACD stands at -2.03 with the MACD line above the signal (-2.80), and the MACD trend increasing; the crossover above the signal line constitutes a bullish momentum signal and indicates accelerating upward pressure despite negative absolute MACD values.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO registers -27.66 and is increasing; the negative value implies price sits below modeled target and the increasing trajectory suggests upside potential as the oscillator moves back toward zero.

RSI and momentum context: RSI at 40.23 and rising signals the stock has room to appreciate before entering overbought ranges; the 12-day EMA shows a dip-and-reversal while price sits above the 20-day average but below the 50-day and 200-day averages, placing shorter-term momentum in a recovery phase inside a longer-term downtrend.

Price structure & volatility: Price closed at $45.63, above the 20-day average ($42.81) but below the 50-day ($49.72) and materially below the 200-day average ($72.20). Bollinger bands place the lower 1x band near $41.25 and the upper 1x band near $44.38, while the SuperTrend upper resistance sits around $47.76, creating immediate technical resistance in the $47–50 area and support nearer the low-$40s and the 20-day average.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT totaled $30,316,000 and EBIT margin measured 28.80%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 28.43% and well above the industry peer median of 19.58%, supporting relative operating efficiency versus peers.

Earnings and guidance: Reported EPS for the most recent period equaled $0.64 versus an estimate of $0.57, a positive surprise of $0.07 (a 12.28% surprise ratio). Forward EPS sits near $0.663, and forward P/E clocks at roughly 111.84x.

Growth rates: WMDST data show revenue growth at -3.82% and revenue growth year-over-year at -118.76% (expressed in percentage terms as provided), while earnings growth prints 39.13% with quarterly earnings growth weaker on a sequential basis (QoQ change negative). These mixed growth signals pair improving earnings with top-line pressure in the reported interval.

Capital structure and liquidity: Total debt of $352,288,000 yields a debt-to-assets ratio of 84.92%, substantially above the industry peer mean of 28.93%; book value per share sits negative at -$3.87 and the P/B ratio prints -17.51, reflecting negative equity. Operating cash flow reached $23,152,000 with free cash flow of $16,584,000 and a free cash flow yield near 0.99%, slightly below the industry peer mean of 1.843%.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. The market assigns a high trailing P/E (~106x) that stands above the industry peer mean (~81.2x) but below the peer high; enterprise-value-to-revenue and forward multiples reflect rich multiple compression relative to near-term free-cash metrics. Strong EBIT margin and positive EPS surprise support the valuation case, while elevated leverage and negative book value represent material balance-sheet considerations that limit a multiple expansion thesis unless capital structure improves.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-17
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 54.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow 23.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.57 M
 Change In Working Capital -11.11 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -16.58 M
 End Period Cash Flow 37.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 105.3 M
 Forward Revenue 34.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 1.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 80.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT 30.3 M
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 140.0 K
 Interest Expense 5.7 M
 Net Interest Income -5.69 M
 Income Before Tax 24.6 M
 Tax Provision 3.8 M
 Tax Rate 15.396 %
 Net Income 12.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 20.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.57
 EPS Actual 0.64
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 12.281 %
 Forward EPS 0.66
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 414.9 M
 Intangible Assets 39.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets -135.20 M
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 34.4 M
 Cash 34.4 M
 Net Receivables 14.1 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 37.2 M
 Short-Term Debt 3.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 258.1 M
 Total Debt 352.3 M
 Total Liabilities 577.7 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity -95.50 M
 Retained Earnings -133.36 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share -3.87
 Shares Outstanding 24.653 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.27
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.7 B
 Enterprise Value 2.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 18.912
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity -4.344
 Asset To Liability 0.718
 Debt To Capital 1.372
 Debt To Assets 0.849
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.261 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3255.077 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA GSHD: 0.849
high: 0.467
median: 0.316
mean: 0.289
low: 0.008
 Debt To Equity -3.689
Debt To Equity QoQ 10.434 %
Debt To Equity YoY -1708.832 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.718
median: 1.42
mean: 1.166
low: 0.011
GSHD: -3.689
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) -17.515
Price To Book QoQ -7.697 %
Price To Book YoY -129.505 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.217
median: 6.005
mean: 5.299
low: 0.765
GSHD: -17.515
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 106.018
Price To Earnings QoQ -38.876 %
Price To Earnings YoY -20.7 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 109.251
GSHD: 106.018
mean: 81.203
median: 71.596
low: 5.386
 PE/G Ratio 2.709
 Price To Sales (P/S) 15.892
Price To Sales QoQ -27.852 %
Price To Sales YoY -42.71 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 18.418
median: 17.322
GSHD: 15.892
mean: 15.544
low: 0.513
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 111.844
Forward PE/G 2.858
Forward P/S 48.154
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.678
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.257
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 19.483 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.48 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.67
GSHD: 0.257
mean: 0.085
median: 0.084
low: 0.048
 Receivables Turnover 7.226
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 17.701 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 13.297 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA GSHD: 7.226
high: 4.628
mean: 0.972
median: 0.924
low: 0.684
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 12.628
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.062
 CapEx To Depreciation -3.384
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 194.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 196.9 M
 Invested Capital 196.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets -135.20 M
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 1.43 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.325
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 50.998 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -63.616 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 15.348
mean: 7.307
median: 5.494
GSHD: 5.325
low: -8.371
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.792 %
 Revenue Growth -3.82 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -0.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -118.763 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.322 %
mean: 7.703 %
median: 7.581 %
GSHD: -3.82 %
low: -11.763 %
 Earnings Growth 39.13 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -739.17 %
Earnings Growth YoY -32.534 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 236.0 %
median: 129.858 %
mean: 108.949 %
GSHD: 39.13 %
low: -220.833 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 28.802 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 23.635 %
EBIT Margin YoY 2.117 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 55.814 %
GSHD: 28.802 %
mean: 28.428 %
median: 19.575 %
low: 9.404 %
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 16.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.991 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -1.393 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 176.816 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.715 %
mean: 1.843 %
median: 1.776 %
GSHD: 0.991 %
low: -1.306 %
 Free Cash Growth -17.175 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1.452 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -72.416 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 95.833 %
mean: 9.19 %
median: 2.87 %
GSHD: -17.175 %
low: -85.961 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.334
 Cash Flow Margin 23.322 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.975
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.038 %
Return On Assets QoQ 61.424 %
Return On Assets YoY -22.717 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.415 %
GSHD: 3.038 %
mean: 1.657 %
median: 1.398 %
low: 0.078 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.13
Return On Equity QoQ 72.786 %
Return On Equity YoY -138.455 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.243
mean: 0.076
median: 0.054
GSHD: -0.13
low: -0.215
 DuPont ROE -12.401 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 13.023 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 38.366 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -122.521 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA GSHD: 13.023 %
high: 10.32 %
mean: 3.765 %
median: 2.939 %
low: 0.806 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum has shifted toward constructive territory: directional indicators show a DI+ recovery while DI- declines, MACD has crossed above its signal, MRO sits negative and is moving up, and RSI trades below 50 but rising. Those inputs create a near-term bias toward further mean reversion and improvement in price action within the next six weeks, with immediate resistance clustered near the SuperTrend upper at approximately $47.76 and the 50-day average near $49.72; tangible support exists in the low-$40s around the 20-day average and the lower Bollinger band near $41.25. Volume trends remain below recent longer-term averages, so follow-through will require rising participation to sustain any move above the $48–50 zone. Monitor leverage and free-cash generation metrics discussed above, since balance-sheet dynamics will influence how durable any technical recovery becomes over the medium term.

About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ:GSHD) is a dynamic and innovative insurance agency that specializes in providing a wide array of personal lines insurance solutions across the United States. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Westlake, Texas, Goosehead has rapidly expanded its footprint, operating over 1,400 franchise locations as of the end of 2023. The company is renowned for its customer-centric approach, offering a comprehensive suite of insurance products including homeowner’s, automotive, dwelling property, flood, wind, earthquake, and excess liability, among others. What sets Goosehead apart is its commitment to leveraging cutting-edge technology and data analytics to streamline the insurance purchasing process, ensuring clients receive tailored coverage that meets their unique needs. By partnering with a broad network of top-rated insurance carriers, Goosehead provides its clients with competitive pricing and unparalleled service. The company’s innovative business model empowers franchise owners to deliver exceptional customer experiences while maintaining the flexibility to adapt to the ever-evolving insurance landscape. Goosehead Insurance continues to redefine the industry standard, making insurance simple, efficient, and accessible for all.



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