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On March 17, 2026 Telesat released results for the year ended December 31, 2025 that highlighted heavy Lightspeed capital expenditure, a $1.0 billion LEO backlog and continued GEO legacy pressure; management flagged ongoing work to refinance Telesat Canada debt maturing late 2026. On March 1, 2026 a shareholder litigation notice related to alleged securities claims drew public attention. Independent commentary over the last weeks emphasized rising defence and government demand for Lightspeed while noting materially lower 2025 revenue and wider losses driven by LEO spending.
Technical Analysis
ADX stands at 24.67, indicating an emerging directional environment; this implies the market may shift from range-bound to trend-driven if momentum accelerates, which would amplify near-term directional moves relative to the current valuation premium.
Directional indicators show DI+ at 25.10 with a decreasing trend and DI- at 16.92 with a dip-and-reversal. The decline in DI+ signals weakening upside pressure while the DI- reversal signals building downside force, a combination that argues for net bearish directional bias in the short run.
MACD sits at 1.50 below its signal line at 1.85 and the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, indicating bearish momentum. The lack of a MACD crossover to the upside reduces confidence in sustained near-term buying pressure versus the current valuation.
MRO reads positive at 31.69 and is increasing, which indicates price sits above the oscillator’s target and faces potential downward reversion pressure; the rising MRO amplifies the probability of a pullback toward technical supports relative to the company’s current valuation.
RSI equals 54.71 with a peak-and-reversal trend, implying recent upside momentum lost its extension and the market now tilts toward neutral-to-weak momentum below overbought territory; combined with falling short-term EMAs, this reduces the odds of a clean breakout above near-term resistance.
Price sits at $36.20 below the 12-day EMA ($37.01, peak-and-reversal) and below the 20-day average ($37.73), indicating short-term weakness, while remaining above the 50-day ($32.15) and 200-day ($27.95) averages—so medium/longer-term support levels exist but short-term technicals favor consolidation or a pullback. Short-term beta (42-day) of 3.79 versus 52-week beta 1.47 underscores outsized near-term volatility risk. Volume at 91,171 trails the 10-day average of 166,736, suggesting recent moves lack strong volume conviction and may reverse if volume re-accelerates.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue totaled $94,041,000 with YoY revenue decline of 6.95% and a QoQ increase of 46.03%, reflecting sequential pickup amid a weaker year-over-year top line. Gross margin equals 92.67%, signaling high unit profitability on reported revenues; operating margin stands at 7.09% but operating margin YoY deteriorated by 102.05%.
EBIT registered a loss of $-435,035,000, producing an EBIT margin of -462.60%, a level well below the industry peer range (industry peer mean ~ -5.01%, industry peer low ~ -15.01%, industry peer high ~ 24.76%). The negative EBIT largely drives net loss of $-125,543,000 and produces negative operating leverage despite positive gross margins.
Cash and equivalents of $510,228,000 provide a liquidity buffer, yet the current ratio equals 0.25 and quick ratio 0.25, indicating working-capital weakness versus the industry peer range (industry peer mean current ratio ~2.08). Net debt measures $2,983,809,000 and debt-to-equity equals an elevated 665.71%, while debt-to-assets equals 53.51%—near but slightly below the industry peer low on debt-to-assets—highlighting a heavily leveraged balance sheet that raises refinancing sensitivity into late 2026 maturities.
Free cash flow totaled $-70,454,000 with a free cash flow yield of -16.20%, though free cash growth YoY shows a large reported increase; operating cash flow registered $-172,267,000 and cash conversion metrics remain strained (cash conversion ratio -3.78%, cash conversion cycle days -1,075.65 days). Interest expense totaled $53,444,000, contributing to an interest coverage ratio of -8.14, lower than the industry peer mean and indicating material coverage pressure from financing costs.
Valuation context: forward EPS sits at $-1.8225 with forward PE of -15.35 and a price-to-book near 0.82x; WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the capital intensity, negative EBIT, strained liquidity ratios, and significant near-term refinancing risk that the market must price before the Lightspeed revenue ramp fully materializes.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-12-31 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-03 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-05 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 482.6 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ -172.27 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -40.25 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -1.93 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 27.2 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 509.8 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 94.0 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 5.1 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 6.9 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 26.7 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 37.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 87.4 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 87.1 M | |
| EBITDA | $ -397.99 M | |
| EBIT | $ -435.04 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 6.7 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 5.3 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 53.4 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -48.14 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -488.48 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ -55.27 M | |
| Tax Rate | 11.315 % | |
| Net Income | $ -125.54 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -433.21 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | — | |
| EPS Actual | — | |
| EPS Difference | — | |
| EPS Surprise | — | |
| Forward EPS | $ -1.82 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 6.6 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 2.7 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -2.13 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 832.1 M | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 510.2 M | |
| Cash | $ 509.8 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 30.6 M | |
| Inventory | $ 1.5 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 869.0 K | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 5.2 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 2.3 B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 3.3 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 3.0 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 3.5 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 4.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 530.8 M | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 330.8 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 35.87 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.798 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 6.35 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 434.9 M |
| Enterprise Value | $ 3.5 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -8.69 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -87.647 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 26.152 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 179.9 median: 179.9 mean: 149.826 TSAT: -8.69 low: -24.028 |
|
| EV/R | 36.776 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 12.441 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.366 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.869 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.535 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 11.997 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 18.734 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.913 mean: 0.613 median: 0.588 low: 0.551 TSAT: 0.535 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 6.657 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 34.187 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 51.067 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 10.201 TSAT: 6.657 mean: 3.852 median: 3.088 low: -10.872 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 0.819 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 34.382 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 119.888 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 4.852 median: 3.149 mean: 3.024 TSAT: 0.819 low: -2.435 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | — | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | — | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | — | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | — | |
| PE/G Ratio | — | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 4.625 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 14.924 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 123.664 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 5.042 median: 5.042 TSAT: 4.625 mean: 4.386 low: 1.015 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | -15.354 | |
| Forward PE/G | — | |
| Forward P/S | 86.117 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -60.671 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.014 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -5.89 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -27.905 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.335 mean: 0.129 low: 0.117 median: 0.117 TSAT: 0.014 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.246 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 15.603 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -3.996 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | TSAT: 2.246 high: 1.981 mean: 1.257 low: 1.235 median: 1.235 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 40.631 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | -1075.651 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -48.038 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 62.438 median: 54.99 mean: 48.683 low: 6.64 TSAT: -1075.651 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | -0.038 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.428 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.506 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 1.7 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 4.0 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 4.0 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -2.13 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ -2.49 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.154 | |
| Current Ratio | 0.251 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -93.902 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -93.699 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.418 mean: 2.081 median: 2.072 low: 0.844 TSAT: 0.251 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -93.701 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.656 mean: 1.139 median: 0.613 TSAT: 0.25 low: 0.067 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -8.879 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.385 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -8.14 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 431.343 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 6.654 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.464 mean: -0.968 median: -1.352 low: -5.574 TSAT: -8.14 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.052 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 1116.283 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -4.652 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -6.945 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 46.026 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -7.952 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 11.397 % mean: 7.69 % median: 7.596 % low: -0.244 % TSAT: -6.945 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | — | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | — | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | — | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | — | |
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 92.668 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -2.739 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 0.496 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | TSAT: 92.668 % high: 56.168 % median: 56.168 % mean: 53.283 % low: 22.618 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | -462.601 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 460.294 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 33.815 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 24.761 % mean: -5.005 % median: -9.542 % low: -15.006 % TSAT: -462.601 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 7.092 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 25.168 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -102.051 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 19.86 % median: 19.86 % mean: 17.885 % TSAT: 7.092 % low: 4.003 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -70.45 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -16.199 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 58.07 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 131.018 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 8.501 % mean: 2.945 % low: 2.093 % median: 2.093 % TSAT: -16.199 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 69.04 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -287.997 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 12521.572 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 112.532 % TSAT: 69.04 % median: 56.322 % mean: 17.756 % low: -236.207 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.561 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -183.183 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.372 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.02 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -1.856 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 259.69 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -2.47 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 1.893 % mean: -1.156 % median: -1.503 % TSAT: -1.856 % low: -4.539 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -13.238 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.237 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 347.258 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 32.998 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.246 mean: -0.044 median: -0.08 TSAT: -0.237 low: -0.328 |
|
| DuPont ROE | -20.959 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | -9.587 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 420.184 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -37.511 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 4.045 % mean: -0.63 % median: -1.164 % low: -6.653 % TSAT: -9.587 % |
|