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On January 6, 2026 Advance Auto Parts announced ARGOS, a new owned oil-and-fluids brand to rollout beginning mid‑February with synthetic blend and full‑synthetic heavy‑duty motor oil, followed by passenger‑car motor oils in early March and a full portfolio by May 2026. The company positions ARGOS as an affordability-and-quality play intended for all Advance and Carquest U.S. locations and online.
Technical Analysis
ADX at 15.01 signals no established trend; the market lacks directional conviction despite short-term shifts that suggest a nascent bullish tilt.
Directional indicators show bullish internals: DI+ recently dipped then reversed, indicating bullish pressure, while DI‑ peaked and reversed, indicating falling downside pressure. Together these gestures imply a short-term shift toward buyers, though ADX keeps the move unconfirmed.
MACD sits negative at -0.18 with the signal line at -0.06; the MACD has dipped then begun to reverse, which signals growing bullish momentum but the indicator remains below the signal line and below zero, so momentum lacks full confirmation.
MRO reads 17.84 and has reversed upward; a positive MRO indicates price currently sits above the model target, implying a higher probability of corrective pressure toward valuation levels if fundamentals fail to sustain gains.
RSI at 51.29 reversed up from a dip, holding a neutral-to-mildly bullish posture without overbought conditions; the indicator leaves room for range expansion without signaling exhaustion.
Price structure shows the close at $51.85, above the 20‑day average ($51.14) and 12‑day EMA ($51.15) but below the 200‑day average ($52.72). Ichimoku components place price beneath the Kijun (53.24) and Senkou A (53.78) while above Tenkan (50.55) and Senkou B (51.55), suggesting short-term support but resistance into the mid‑$53 area. Bollinger bands (1x: 49.10–53.18) contain price inside the upper half of the band set, compatible with a measured short-term recovery rather than an extended breakout.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and profit dynamics show mixed signals. Total revenue for the period totaled $1,973,000,000 with reported YoY revenue growth showing a decline of 56.27% and quarter‑over‑quarter revenue change at -339.10% on the provided measures; these mark material contraction versus the prior-year base. Gross margin stands at 44.05%, while operating margin equals 3.45% and EBIT margin equals 3.75%. Operating cash flow reached $72,000,000 but free cash flow landed negative at -$21,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -0.72%.
Profitability and returns remain constrained: return on equity registers 0.27% and return on assets 0.05%. Earnings per share arrived at $0.86 versus an estimate of $0.41, a $0.45 beat representing roughly a 110% surprise. EBITDA reached $132,000,000 while EBIT totaled $74,000,000. Interest expense weighed $53,000,000 and interest coverage sits at 1.40x, indicating limited cushion versus funding costs.
Leverage presents a material consideration: total debt equals $5,224,000,000 with debt to equity of 2.38x and debt to EBITDA roughly 39.6x, leaving capital structure tight relative to operating cash flow. Net debt sits at $289,000,000, helped by cash and short‑term investments of $3,123,000,000, producing a cash ratio of 0.75 and current ratio of 1.75.
Relative to industry peer metrics, EBIT margin at 3.75% sits below the industry peer mean of 11.72% and below the industry peer median of 10.83%, while it remains above the industry peer low of -7.69%. Price multiples show P/E at 56.82 and P/B at 1.33, with the P/B ratio below the industry peer mean of 5.41 and the P/E below the industry peer mean of 102.17. Free cash flow yield at -0.72% falls short of the industry peer mean near 0.36%.
Key operational indicators: inventory stands at $3,646,000,000 with days inventory outstanding ~290 days and days payables outstanding ~243 days, driving a cash conversion cycle of 65.30 days. Asset turnover sits at 0.17x, below the industry peer mean of 0.32x, indicating lower sales efficiency relative to peers. Asset growth registered -1.93% year over year, and capex for the period equalled -$93,000,000 (capex to revenue -4.71%).
WMDST values the stock as over‑valued. The valuation outcome reflects stretched multiples, weak free cash flow conversion, modest operating margin improvement, and elevated leverage that together offset operational positives such as the ARGOS private‑label initiative and the recent EPS beat.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-12-31 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-13 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-15 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 3.2 B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 72.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -93.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -23.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -15.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -51.00 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 3.1 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 2.0 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 4.8 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.1 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 58.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 58.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 869.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 132.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 74.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 68.0 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 53.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -53.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 21.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ -9.00 M | |
| Tax Rate | 40.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ 6.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 30.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.41 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.86 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.45 | |
| EPS Surprise | 109.756 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.98 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 11.8 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 1.0 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.2 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 7.3 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 3.1 B | |
| Cash | $ 3.1 B | |
| Net Receivables | $ 370.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 3.6 B | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 110.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 3.0 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 4.2 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 289.0 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 5.2 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 9.6 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.2 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 4.1 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 36.62 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.022 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 32.87 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 2.9 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 5.0 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 38.135 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -26.027 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -717.829 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 135.997 median: 79.36 mean: 72.656 AAP: 38.135 low: -9.179 |
|
| EV/R | 2.551 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 5.38 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.228 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.704 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.442 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 1.254 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 29.395 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.07 median: 0.513 mean: 0.486 AAP: 0.442 low: 0.13 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 2.377 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -0.839 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 39.904 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 4.879 AAP: 2.377 mean: 1.555 median: 1.395 low: -2.088 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 1.334 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -13.286 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 7.247 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 11.1 mean: 5.411 median: 3.522 AAP: 1.334 low: -3.282 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 56.818 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -102.018 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -247.515 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 190.196 median: 123.637 mean: 102.17 AAP: 56.818 low: -123.055 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -0.013 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 1.486 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.396 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 9.901 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 18.42 mean: 9.81 median: 8.143 AAP: 1.486 low: 0.253 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 50.633 | |
| Forward PE/G | -0.012 | |
| Forward P/S | 0.613 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -30.617 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.165 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -8.313 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -3.713 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.64 mean: 0.316 median: 0.269 AAP: 0.165 low: 0.079 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 4.945 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 18.157 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 55.79 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 111.893 mean: 14.831 median: 10.864 AAP: 4.945 low: 0.298 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 0.301 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -3.815 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -30.18 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.463 mean: 0.7 median: 0.616 AAP: 0.301 low: 0.294 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 18.453 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 65.303 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 13.712 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 16.061 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 342.592 AAP: 65.303 mean: 24.244 median: 14.212 low: -161.35 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.634 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.047 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.603 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.2 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 3.1 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.748 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.746 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 0.985 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | 32.567 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.547 AAP: 1.746 mean: 1.16 median: 1.045 low: 0.323 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.873 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | -0.759 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | 60.817 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.051 AAP: 0.873 mean: 0.306 median: 0.219 low: 0.059 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 39.576 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.607 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 1.396 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 46.972 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -103.273 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 75.047 mean: 14.426 median: 8.4 AAP: 1.396 low: -15.692 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.007 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 243.096 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 0.4 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 2.5 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.25 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.005 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -1.932 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -3.094 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -339.104 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -56.269 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 39.622 % AAP: -3.094 % mean: -4.098 % median: -4.227 % low: -25.856 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -4400.0 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | 4176.038 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -254.386 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 87.591 % median: -16.471 % mean: -18.323 % low: -181.818 % AAP: -4400.0 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 44.045 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 1.789 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 153.278 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 71.35 % median: 44.097 % AAP: 44.045 % mean: 41.261 % low: 10.184 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 3.751 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 101.018 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -109.283 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 18.986 % mean: 11.716 % median: 10.828 % AAP: 3.751 % low: -7.692 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 3.447 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 27.619 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -108.531 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 19.991 % mean: 11.764 % median: 11.014 % AAP: 3.447 % low: -7.69 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -21.00 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -0.716 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -68.178 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -84.458 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 9.132 % median: 0.448 % mean: 0.358 % AAP: -0.716 % low: -10.237 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -72.368 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -102.974 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -84.88 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 382.415 % median: 19.716 % mean: -54.782 % AAP: -72.368 % low: -636.544 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -3.5 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -1.521 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | -5.0 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.02 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.05 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | — | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -101.403 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.623 % median: 2.721 % mean: 2.437 % AAP: 0.05 % low: -2.24 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 0.967 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.003 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -693.478 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -101.428 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.228 median: 0.041 mean: 0.008 AAP: 0.003 low: -0.186 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 0.273 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 0.791 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 47.85 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -102.413 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 12.426 % mean: 7.466 % median: 7.379 % AAP: 0.791 % low: -3.079 % |
|