Commvault Systems, Inc (NASDAQ:CVLT) Enters Consolidation Phase While Fundamentals Remain Stretched

Price action shows constrained momentum as mixed technical signals clash with stretched valuation metrics and weak cashflow conversion. Near-term movement should track consolidation with sensitivity to momentum crosses and headline developments.

Recent News

On February 2, 2026 the company announced Commvault Geo Shield™, a data-residency and sovereign-cloud solution approach. On February 25, 2026 Commvault publicized bi-directional integration with CrowdStrike Falcon Next‑Gen SIEM and related partner recognitions. Multiple shareholder-focused law firms issued investigation notices in January–February 2026 following the company’s late‑January disclosures.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 35.75 indicates a strong underlying trend; trend strength increases the significance of directional signals when they align with momentum and moving‑average structure.

DI+ shows a dip & reversal while DI− shows a peak & reversal, a combination that reads as bullish directional confirmation despite DI− remaining numerically higher than DI+; this suggests directional pressure has shifted toward buyers but with residual selling influence.

MACD sits at −4.19 after a dip & reversal and currently trades above its signal line (MACD −4.19 vs signal −4.55), producing a bullish momentum signal that supports the directional indicators.

MRO equals −28.12 and remains negative while trending higher, which implies the market price sits below the target and carries measured upside potential as momentum normalizes toward fair value.

RSI at 36.3 with a decreasing trajectory shows short‑term momentum weakness and a vulnerability to near‑term pullbacks even as some trend/momentum indicators skew bullish.

Price sits below the 12‑ and 26‑day EMAs (price close $79.41; 12‑day EMA $81.64 decreasing; 26‑day EMA $85.66), and below the 20‑ and 50‑day averages (20‑day $82.61, 50‑day $94.67), indicating the short‑to‑intermediate structure favors consolidation or corrective action until price reclaims the short EMAs. The lower Bollinger band near $78.64 represents immediate support; the super trend upper band at $86.65 marks the next clear resistance barrier.

Volume averaged higher than 10‑day norms on recent sessions (10‑day avg ~1.29M vs daily ~2.06M today), signaling episodic attention; volatility measures remain moderate (42‑day volatility 5%), so moves may extend if momentum aligns with headlines.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $313,832,000 with YoY revenue growth of 8.33% and an overall revenue growth metric of 13.63%. SaaS and subscription traction cited in the company’s quarter underpins recurring revenue expansion, but QoQ revenue growth registered a contraction of 7.64%.

Margins show operating margin at 10.09% and EBIT margin at 9.07%, with both margins up materially YoY (EBIT margin YoY +56.67%; EBIT margin QoQ +59.23%). EBIT of $28,473,000 and EBITDA of $32,255,000 signal positive operating profitability despite the elevated valuation.

EPS reported $1.17 on the report dated January 27, 2026, beating an estimate of $0.98 by $0.19, a surprise of 19.39%.

Liquidity and cash position appear strong on the balance sheet: cash and short‑term investments total $1,026,346,000 and the current ratio equals 2.34; the cash ratio equals 1.66, indicating ample near‑term coverage of current liabilities.

Cashflow metrics undercut the operational picture: free cash flow only $1,926,000 and free cash flow yield 0.03%, with free cash flow growth effectively negative QoQ and YoY deterioration in cash conversion (cash flow margin −33.64% and operating cash flow $4,045,000). The company reports a sizable cash conversion ratio of 0.3788 but a negative cash flow delta and large changes in working capital.

Leverage stands elevated: total debt $918,645,000, debt‑to‑assets 45.07%, and debt‑to‑equity 423.86%, while interest coverage remains healthy at 19.65x. Debt‑to‑EBITDA near 28.48 signals significant leverage relative to current earnings before depreciation and amortization.

Valuation multiples convey premium positioning: price‑to‑book roughly 26.94—above the industry peer mean and median—while the P/E near 113.33 sits below the industry peer mean but above the peer median; PEG about 3.97 sits below the industry peer mean. Enterprise‑to‑revenue and EV multiples also reflect elevated expectations. Given weak free cash flow yield and high leverage, the current valuation appears stretched relative to the company’s cashflow profile.

WMDST values the stock as over‑valued based on the combination of elevated market multiples, thin free cash generation, and substantial leverage despite improving subscription metrics and a profitable operating base.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-01-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-04-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 4.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -2.12 M
 Change In Working Capital -61.39 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -37.21 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.0 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 313.8 M
 Forward Revenue 234.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 59.3 M
 Depreciation 3.8 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.8 M
 Research and Development 42.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses 282.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 254.5 M
 EBITDA 32.3 M
 EBIT 28.5 M
 Operating Income 31.7 M
 Interest Income 8.4 M
 Interest Expense 1.4 M
 Net Interest Income 7.0 M
 Income Before Tax 27.0 M
 Tax Provision 9.2 M
 Tax Rate 34.199 %
 Net Income 17.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 17.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.98
 EPS Actual 1.17
 EPS Difference 0.19
 EPS Surprise 19.388 %
 Forward EPS 1.21
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.0 B
 Intangible Assets 231.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets -15.08 M
 Total Current Assets 1.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.0 B
 Cash 1.0 B
 Net Receivables 361.8 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 65.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 268.0 K
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 616.6 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 918.6 M
 Total Liabilities 1.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 216.7 M
 Retained Earnings -1.25 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 4.92
 Shares Outstanding 44.034 M
 Revenue Per-Share 7.13
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.8 B
 Enterprise Value 5.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 177.686
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -56.867 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -53.066 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 416.607
CVLT: 177.686
mean: 78.001
median: 61.115
low: -199.076
 EV/R 18.262
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.404
 Asset To Liability 1.119
 Debt To Capital 0.809
 Debt To Assets 0.451
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.895 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3878.199 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.87
CVLT: 0.451
mean: 0.168
median: 0.087
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 4.239
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.808 %
Debt To Equity YoY 10417.717 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA CVLT: 4.239
high: 2.989
mean: 0.25
median: 0.147
low: -1.778
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 26.941
Price To Book QoQ -27.918 %
Price To Book YoY 10.238 %
Price To Book IPRWA CVLT: 26.941
high: 24.203
mean: 10.865
median: 9.178
low: -5.151
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 113.334
Price To Earnings QoQ -42.243 %
Price To Earnings YoY -33.333 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 522.411
mean: 127.435
CVLT: 113.334
median: 101.811
low: -262.004
 PE/G Ratio 3.967
 Price To Sales (P/S) 18.605
Price To Sales QoQ -34.674 %
Price To Sales YoY -30.54 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 116.554
mean: 45.082
median: 44.141
CVLT: 18.605
low: 0.761
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 115.597
Forward PE/G 4.046
Forward P/S 24.945
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 5.938
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.159
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.127 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -40.109 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.373
CVLT: 0.159
mean: 0.13
median: 0.125
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 1.052
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.633 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.622 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.216
mean: 1.578
median: 1.485
CVLT: 1.052
low: 0.392
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 86.741
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 113.407
mean: 63.698
median: 62.904
low: 21.685
CVLT: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.379
 CapEx To Revenue -0.007
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.56
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -15.08 M
 Net Working Capital 828.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.664
 Current Ratio 2.343
Current Ratio QoQ -7.277 %
Current Ratio YoY 107.939 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.11
CVLT: 2.343
mean: 1.813
median: 1.386
low: 0.466
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 28.481
 Cost Of Debt 0.132 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.65
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -20.461 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -86.564 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 148.909
median: 66.552
mean: 45.547
CVLT: 19.65
low: -122.007
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.171
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 0.52
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.323 %
 Revenue Growth 13.63 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -763.906 %
Revenue Growth YoY 8.329 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 19.11 %
CVLT: 13.63 %
mean: 6.004 %
median: 4.635 %
low: -10.142 %
 Earnings Growth 28.571 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -388.567 %
Earnings Growth YoY 115.581 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 153.333 %
CVLT: 28.571 %
mean: 13.566 %
median: 9.783 %
low: -163.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 81.106 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.294 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.469 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.68 %
CVLT: 81.106 %
mean: 71.905 %
median: 68.036 %
low: 37.597 %
 EBIT Margin 9.073 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 59.231 %
EBIT Margin YoY 56.674 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 78.69 %
median: 60.268 %
mean: 46.493 %
CVLT: 9.073 %
low: -97.081 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.087 %
Return On Sales QoQ 100.139 %
Return On Sales YoY 74.184 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.917 %
median: 47.094 %
mean: 36.599 %
CVLT: 10.087 %
low: -76.387 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.033 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -96.471 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -92.235 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.274 %
mean: 0.213 %
median: 0.164 %
CVLT: 0.033 %
low: -3.727 %
 Free Cash Growth -97.383 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -166.291 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 119.366 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 265.627 %
mean: -23.509 %
median: -77.08 %
CVLT: -97.383 %
low: -204.458 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.108
 Cash Flow Margin -33.638 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -5.937
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.899 %
Return On Assets QoQ -5.567 %
Return On Assets YoY -19.155 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 16.838 %
median: 5.909 %
mean: 4.892 %
CVLT: 0.899 %
low: -10.846 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.003 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.082
Return On Equity QoQ 17.231 %
Return On Equity YoY 114.286 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.344
median: 0.098
mean: 0.086
CVLT: 0.082
low: -0.282
 DuPont ROE 8.325 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.709 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 21.292 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -135.723 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 22.805 %
median: 9.056 %
mean: 7.424 %
CVLT: 1.709 %
low: -11.474 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a consolidation regime with asymmetric headline sensitivity. Directional indicators and a MACD crossover provide a bullish tilt, but a falling RSI and price remaining below short EMAs limit near‑term follow‑through. If price stabilizes above the 12‑day EMA and MRO moves toward zero, momentum could permit a controlled recovery; failure to hold the lower Bollinger band near $78.64 would likely extend consolidation toward the short‑term support range. Monitor regulatory and legal developments, product adoption headlines, and next report timing (next report dated April 28, 2026) as catalysts that will shift momentum; adjust time horizons to align with confirmed technical normalization rather than anticipating immediate directional breakouts.

About Commvault Systems, Inc.

CommVault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) develops advanced data protection and management solutions, empowering businesses to enhance their cyber resiliency. Based in Tinton Falls, New Jersey, the company provides a comprehensive suite of offerings that ensure data security, availability, and compliance across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and technology. CommVault’s flagship solutions include Operational Recovery for seamless data backup and recovery, and Autonomous Recovery for automated disaster and cyber recovery across on-premises, cloud, or hybrid environments. Their Cyber Recovery solutions offer advanced threat detection and scanning, safeguarding data from potential cyber threats. The company also innovates in cloud technology with Cleanroom Recovery, providing a secure, isolated recovery environment, and HyperScale X, a scalable data protection solution that supports the transition to hybrid cloud infrastructures. Cloud Air Gap Protect further enhances security by offering an air-gapped cloud storage solution, aiding digital transformation while minimizing risks. With a strong focus on compliance, CommVault ensures data integrity through robust reporting and auditing capabilities. Since its founding in 1996, CommVault has consistently delivered solutions that help organizations navigate the complexities of today’s digital landscape.



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