FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Accelerates Margin Recovery While Cost Cuts Drive Near-Term Pressure

FedEx shows operational leverage strengthening after recent restructuring, but momentum indicators point to near-term selling pressure that could test the company’s fair-valued standing. Fundamental improvements in margins and cash flow underpin the valuation, while directional technicals create a cautious short-term bias.

Recent News

FedEx hosted a 2026 Investor Day in February focused on network optimization and multi-year operating-income targets; the company emphasized strategic initiatives to boost operating income and outlined transformation priorities. A scheduled service interruption occurred on February 16, 2026, affecting some API and shipping services. The company published updates on 2026 surcharge and fee changes for package services and regulatory alerts relevant to cross-border shipments, and promoted new B2B digital capabilities in mid-February.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 38.06 indicates a strong trend; DI+ falling to 18.77 while DI- rises to 26.10 signals the directional bias favors sellers, increasing downside risk versus the current valuation.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.83 below its signal line of 5.39 with the MACD trend decreasing, a bearish momentum profile that argues the recent upside lacks sustaining momentum unless MACD crosses above its signal.

MRO: MRO at 20.98 (positive) indicates price sits above the internal target and therefore carries a higher likelihood of downward mean reversion, which would pressure the stock relative to its fair-valued assessment.

RSI and Momentum: RSI at 61.81 and trending down points to cooling bullish momentum; the combination of a declining RSI and falling short-term EMAs favors a pullback scenario near-term.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Close at $356.11 trades below the 20-day average ($363.28) and just above the 50-day average ($349.05), while remaining well above the 200-day average ($270.27). Price sits inside the 1x Bollinger band range (lower $348.76–upper $377.80), placing current action nearer short-term support than breakout territory.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: Operating (EBIT) margin equals 6.91%, up 18.37% QoQ and up 10.11% YoY; that margin sits below the industry peer mean (8.39%) and industry peer median (8.79%) but above the industry peer low (−2.86%). The improvement QoQ and YoY reflects profitable leverage from recent cost actions tied to the company’s transformation program.

Earnings and Guidance Signal: Reported EPS of $4.82 versus an estimate of $4.11 produced an EPS beat of $0.71, a positive surprise of 17.28%, supporting the narrative of improving underlying earnings power ahead of the next report date.

Revenue and Cash Flow: Total revenue at $23,469,000,000 accompanies revenue growth (reported value) of 5.51%, while reported free cash flow stands at $1,194,000,000 with a free cash flow yield of 1.96% and free-cash growth of 9.24%. Operating cash flow equals $1,951,000,000 and cash conversion metrics (cash conversion cycle ~26.13 days) reflect generally efficient working-capital management.

Leverage and Coverage: Total debt $37,766,000,000 produces debt-to-equity of 1.342 (134.21%) and debt-to-EBITDA of 14.04; interest-coverage at 16.89x remains strong, implying earnings comfortably cover interest expense despite elevated nominal leverage levels.

Returns: Return on equity registers 3.40% and return on assets 1.08%, both improving QoQ and YoY but remaining modest relative to typical high-return businesses; these returns reflect capital-intensive network operations and ongoing investment in fleet and network optimization.

Valuation: Price-to-earnings sits at 53.73x with a forward P/E of 47.12x; price-to-book equals 2.16x and enterprise multiple rounds to 34.23x. WMDST values the stock as fair-valued. Relative to industry peer inputs, the P/E sits below the industry peer mean but above the industry peer median, and the price-to-book rests below the industry peer mean—together indicating valuation mixes premium for future cash-flow improvements and room for re-rating depending on transformation execution.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-11-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-12-18
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-03-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 6.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.0 B
 Capital Expenditures -757.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.18 B
 Dividends Paid -342.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 404.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 6.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 23.5 B
 Forward Revenue 7.9 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 18.3 B
 Depreciation 1.1 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.1 B
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 21.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.1 B
 EBITDA 2.7 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.6 B
 Interest Income -135.00 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income -135.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.3 B
 Tax Provision 333.0 M
 Tax Rate 25.8 %
 Net Income 956.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 956.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.11
 EPS Actual 4.82
 EPS Difference 0.71
 EPS Surprise 17.275 %
 Forward EPS 5.46
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 89.2 B
 Intangible Assets 6.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Total Current Assets 20.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 6.6 B
 Cash 6.6 B
 Net Receivables 12.2 B
 Inventory 631.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 4.4 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 4.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 901.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 16.2 B
 Net Debt 14.6 B
 Total Debt 37.8 B
 Total Liabilities 61.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 28.1 B
 Retained Earnings 42.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 119.74
 Shares Outstanding 235.000 M
 Revenue Per-Share 99.87
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 60.9 B
 Enterprise Value 92.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 34.234
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -4.1 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 32.631 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 115.89
mean: 50.808
FDX: 34.234
median: 29.766
low: 2.046
 EV/R 3.922
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.169
 Asset To Liability 1.461
 Debt To Capital 0.573
 Debt To Assets 0.423
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.222 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6010.823 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.794
FDX: 0.423
median: 0.391
mean: 0.337
low: 0.033
 Debt To Equity 1.342
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.676 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5899.464 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.844
median: 1.762
mean: 1.375
FDX: 1.342
low: 0.043
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.163
Price To Book QoQ 12.103 %
Price To Book YoY -15.148 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.221
mean: 6.168
median: 5.223
FDX: 2.163
low: 0.232
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 53.73
Price To Earnings QoQ -9.372 %
Price To Earnings YoY -22.289 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 219.55
mean: 82.003
FDX: 53.73
median: 38.512
low: -140.344
 PE/G Ratio 2.079
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.593
Price To Sales QoQ 7.663 %
Price To Sales YoY -15.536 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 8.459
mean: 4.538
median: 3.462
FDX: 2.593
low: 0.815
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.12
Forward PE/G 1.823
Forward P/S 7.985
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.519
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.264
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.761
mean: 0.41
median: 0.339
FDX: 0.264
low: 0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.983
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.982 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.589
median: 2.312
mean: 2.05
FDX: 1.983
low: 1.171
 Inventory Turnover 29.696
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.031 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 5.116 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA FDX: 29.696
high: 16.502
mean: 5.175
median: 4.681
low: 0.406
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 46.025
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 26.132
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.379 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.26 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 116.203
FDX: 26.132
median: 25.694
mean: 24.974
low: -61.123
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.287
 CapEx To Revenue -0.032
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.709
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 48.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Net Working Capital 4.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.405
 Current Ratio 1.274
Current Ratio QoQ 2.224 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.449 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.812
FDX: 1.274
mean: 1.25
median: 1.219
low: 0.829
 Quick Ratio 1.235
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.295 %
Quick Ratio YoY 3.924 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 21.528
FDX: 1.235
median: 1.172
mean: 1.111
low: 0.57
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 14.045
 Cost Of Debt 0.188 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 16.885
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 24.884 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 17.634 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 24.425
FDX: 16.885
median: 9.917
mean: 9.594
low: -7.955
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.111
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 23.104
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.795
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.358
 Dividend Rate 1.46
 Dividend Yield 0.006
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.865 %
 Revenue Growth 5.507 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 4999.074 %
Revenue Growth YoY 206.285 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 18.902 %
mean: 5.681 %
FDX: 5.507 %
median: 3.299 %
low: -7.198 %
 Earnings Growth 25.849 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -170.046 %
Earnings Growth YoY 106.792 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 88.889 %
FDX: 25.849 %
mean: 10.703 %
median: 7.955 %
low: -75.342 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 21.867 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.625 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.903 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 30.222 %
FDX: 21.867 %
median: 19.987 %
mean: 16.158 %
low: 5.091 %
 EBIT Margin 6.907 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 18.372 %
EBIT Margin YoY 10.107 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 10.777 %
median: 8.786 %
mean: 8.393 %
FDX: 6.907 %
low: -2.859 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.907 %
Return On Sales QoQ 18.372 %
Return On Sales YoY 10.107 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 10.519 %
median: 9.099 %
mean: 8.444 %
FDX: 6.907 %
low: -7.05 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.962 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -3.824 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 164.777 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.561 %
median: 3.051 %
mean: 2.223 %
FDX: 1.962 %
low: -3.721 %
 Free Cash Growth 9.241 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 105.675 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -51.486 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 585.318 %
median: 42.073 %
FDX: 9.241 %
mean: 8.718 %
low: -504.706 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.249
 Cash Flow Margin 7.648 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.878
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.077 %
Return On Assets QoQ 15.064 %
Return On Assets YoY 25.087 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.15 %
median: 2.479 %
mean: 2.229 %
FDX: 1.077 %
low: -3.396 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.222 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.034
Return On Equity QoQ 14.493 %
Return On Equity YoY 21.321 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.11
median: 0.085
mean: 0.078
FDX: 0.034
low: -0.25
 DuPont ROE 3.419 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.438 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 26.452 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -110.397 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.168 %
median: 4.936 %
mean: 4.436 %
FDX: 2.438 %
low: -1.948 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias appears skewed to the downside as momentum indicators (MACD declining, RSI falling) and directional indicators (DI+ decreasing, DI- increasing) convey selling pressure despite a strong ADX trend. The positive MRO and recent EPS beat support the company’s fair-valued status, but technicians should expect ranging or lower prices until MACD stabilizes or DI+ reverses upward. Watch for a sustained MACD uptick or a DI+ dip-and-reverse to shift the bias back toward renewed upside; absent those technical confirmations, price action will likely test short-term support bands while fundamentals continue to anchor valuation.

About FedEx Corporation

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) delivers comprehensive logistics and transportation solutions worldwide. Established in 1971 and based in Memphis, Tennessee, FedEx organizes its operations into distinct segments to address diverse shipping needs. FedEx Express provides swift air and ground delivery services, optimizing solutions for time-sensitive shipments across the globe. FedEx Ground emphasizes efficient delivery of small packages, offering cost-effective options for both businesses and individual customers. In the freight domain, FedEx Freight manages less-than-truckload (LTL) services, ensuring precise and careful handling of larger shipments. Beyond transportation, FedEx Services supports clients with a range of offerings in sales, marketing, IT, and customer service, enhancing the overall customer experience. The company also strengthens supply chain management through air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and third-party logistics services. FedEx’s commitment to reliable service and customer satisfaction underpins its role in connecting businesses and consumers in an increasingly interconnected global economy. By continually adapting to the evolving demands of commerce, FedEx maintains its position as a key player in the logistics and transportation industry.



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