Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) Appears Undervalued Yet Faces Near-Term Downside Pressure

WMDST values the stock as under-valued, yet near-term momentum and recent corporate actions point toward elevated volatility and downward pressure before any re-rating materializes.

Recent News

On March 4, 2026 Lear announced participation in the Bank of America 2026 Global Automotive Summit with a scheduled March 17th fireside chat; the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend payable March 25, 2026; and several analysts issued updated coverage with maintained or raised price targets and neutral/equal-weight stances in early February and January 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show DI+ decreasing and DI- increasing, which reads as a bearish directional setup; ADX at 31.77 denotes a strong prevailing trend, reinforcing a near-term bias toward downside momentum.

MACD registers -1.20 with the MACD trend decreasing and sits below its signal line of 0.85, indicating active bearish momentum rather than a recovering crossover.

MRO stands at 11.39 and is decreasing; the positive MRO indicates price sits above WMDST’s short-term target and therefore presents pressure toward a price retreat back toward target levels.

RSI sits near neutral at 51.68 but trends downward, signaling room for further weakness before reaching oversold levels and suggesting consolidation rather than immediate reversal.

Price sits below the 20-day and 50-day averages (20-day = $127.80, 50-day = $126.03) while remaining above the 200-day average ($108.20), a configuration that favors short-term bearishness inside a longer-term base. The close at $119.27 lies below the 1x lower Bollinger band ($120.93) but above the 2x lower band ($114.06), indicating heightened short-term downside without extreme exhaustion.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $5,988,600,000 with revenue growth of 5.44%; forward revenue projects $3,868,556,430. Gross margin at 5.72% and operating margin at 2.59% remain well below the industry peer mean (gross margin mean 22.10%, operating margin mean 9.21%), reflecting compressed profitability relative to peers.

EBIT equals $137,800,000 and EBIT margin 2.30% compares unfavorably with the industry peer mean of 7.52% and industry peer median of 8.44%; EBIT margin contracted QoQ by -28.98% and YoY by -29.16%, underscoring meaningful near-term margin pressure.

Earnings per share came in at $3.41 versus an estimate of $2.80, an EPS surprise of +21.79% (difference $0.61); forward EPS stands at $4.22 and forward P/E at 25.86, below the industry peer mean forward P/E of 37.78 and median of 32.88, suggesting some valuation compression already priced in.

Balance-sheet metrics show cash and short-term investments of $1,033,000,000, net debt $1,710,100,000, debt to equity 0.578, and debt to EBITDA roughly 9.92x; interest coverage near 5.51x provides some cushion, though leverage measures sit toward the higher end of customary auto-component ranges.

Free cash flow reached $281,100,000 with a free cash flow yield of 4.67% (close to the industry peer mean of 4.64%); cash conversion cycle about 31 days and operating cash flow $475,900,000 suggest operating cash generation remains positive despite margin compression.

Valuation summary: price multiples show a trailing P/E of 33.75, P/B ~1.19 versus industry peer mean P/B of 2.01, and enterprise multiple ~26.88. Given those inputs, WMDST values the stock as under-valued while acknowledging that profitability and leverage trends reduce near-term valuation support.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow 475.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -194.80 M
 Change In Working Capital 278.5 M
 Dividends Paid -39.40 M
 Cash Flow Delta 20.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.0 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 6.0 B
 Forward Revenue 3.9 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 5.6 B
 Depreciation 151.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 155.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 5.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 342.4 M
 EBITDA 293.7 M
 EBIT 137.8 M
 Operating Income 155.1 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 25.0 M
 Net Interest Income -25.00 M
 Income Before Tax 112.8 M
 Tax Provision 18.1 M
 Tax Rate 16.046 %
 Net Income 82.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 106.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.80
 EPS Actual 3.41
 EPS Difference 0.61
 EPS Surprise 21.786 %
 Forward EPS 4.22
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 14.8 B
 Intangible Assets 1.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.3 B
 Total Current Assets 7.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.0 B
 Cash 1.0 B
 Net Receivables 3.9 B
 Inventory 1.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 2.5 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 3.4 B
 Short-Term Debt 31.6 M
 Total Current Liabilities 5.7 B
 Net Debt 1.7 B
 Total Debt 2.9 B
 Total Liabilities 9.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 5.0 B
 Retained Earnings 6.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 96.33
 Shares Outstanding 50.647 M
 Revenue Per-Share 114.57
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 6.0 B
 Enterprise Value 7.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 26.883
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 27.52 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 125.04 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 97.359
mean: 35.356
median: 33.466
LEA: 26.883
low: -32.352
 EV/R 1.318
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.948
 Asset To Liability 1.539
 Debt To Capital 0.366
 Debt To Assets 0.196
Debt To Assets QoQ 6.578 %
Debt To Assets YoY 9425.243 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.626
median: 0.268
mean: 0.256
LEA: 0.196
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.578
Debt To Equity QoQ 5.831 %
Debt To Equity YoY 8812.789 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.244
median: 0.879
mean: 0.692
LEA: 0.578
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.195
Price To Book QoQ 14.918 %
Price To Book YoY 3.448 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 4.922
mean: 2.013
median: 1.834
LEA: 1.195
low: 0.796
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 33.752
Price To Earnings QoQ -7.278 %
Price To Earnings YoY 3.399 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 149.607
mean: 52.235
median: 42.663
LEA: 33.752
low: 16.759
 PE/G Ratio 1.519
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.005
Price To Sales QoQ 7.483 %
Price To Sales YoY 11.651 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.284
mean: 3.509
median: 3.276
LEA: 1.005
low: 0.523
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 25.859
Forward PE/G 1.164
Forward P/S 1.499
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -4.618
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.399
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.121 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.76 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA LEA: 0.399
high: 0.364
mean: 0.266
median: 0.256
low: 0.079
 Receivables Turnover 1.474
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 13.612 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 1.615 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.82
LEA: 1.474
mean: 1.392
median: 1.374
low: 0.307
 Inventory Turnover 3.267
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.927 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 3.321 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA LEA: 3.267
high: 2.838
median: 1.625
mean: 1.602
low: 0.332
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 61.903
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 31.181
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -18.655 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -5.999 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 304.954
mean: 72.254
median: 51.379
LEA: 31.181
low: -51.568
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 3.0
 CapEx To Revenue -0.033
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.289
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 7.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 7.8 B
 Invested Capital 7.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.3 B
 Net Working Capital 2.0 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.182
 Current Ratio 1.352
Current Ratio QoQ 0.148 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.523 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.914
mean: 1.918
median: 1.736
LEA: 1.352
low: 0.584
 Quick Ratio 1.053
Quick Ratio QoQ -0.046 %
Quick Ratio YoY 2.775 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.568
median: 1.141
mean: 1.098
LEA: 1.053
low: 0.284
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 9.917
 Cost Of Debt 0.632 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.512
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -26.307 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -20.706 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 77.479
mean: 10.43
LEA: 5.512
median: 5.069
low: -24.742
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.075
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 60.382
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.099
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.476
 Dividend Rate 0.75
 Dividend Yield 0.007
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -2.076 %
 Revenue Growth 5.437 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -193.516 %
Revenue Growth YoY 133.248 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 22.016 %
LEA: 5.437 %
mean: -0.128 %
median: -1.132 %
low: -24.28 %
 Earnings Growth 22.222 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -213.395 %
Earnings Growth YoY 1184.509 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 63.91 %
LEA: 22.222 %
mean: 11.071 %
median: -4.348 %
low: -65.098 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 5.718 %
Gross Margin QoQ -10.698 %
Gross Margin YoY -15.589 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 42.587 %
mean: 22.102 %
median: 20.305 %
low: 10.181 %
LEA: 5.718 %
 EBIT Margin 2.301 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -28.981 %
EBIT Margin YoY -29.156 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 18.863 %
median: 8.436 %
mean: 7.522 %
LEA: 2.301 %
low: -0.932 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.59 %
Return On Sales QoQ -23.576 %
Return On Sales YoY -20.259 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 18.863 %
mean: 9.207 %
median: 8.946 %
LEA: 2.59 %
low: 0.753 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 281.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 4.672 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -19.211 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -50.842 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 10.715 %
LEA: 4.672 %
mean: 4.642 %
median: 3.856 %
low: -4.172 %
 Free Cash Growth -8.436 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -110.579 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -100.972 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 180.263 %
mean: 50.189 %
median: 47.619 %
LEA: -8.436 %
low: -561.732 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.399
 Cash Flow Margin 7.1 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 5.141
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.551 %
Return On Assets QoQ -22.394 %
Return On Assets YoY -9.82 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.482 %
mean: 1.269 %
median: 0.588 %
LEA: 0.551 %
low: -1.254 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.502 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.016
Return On Equity QoQ -22.511 %
Return On Equity YoY -17.029 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.088
mean: 0.032
LEA: 0.016
median: 0.015
low: 0.004
 DuPont ROE 1.631 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.487 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -11.011 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -112.831 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.208 %
mean: 2.455 %
median: 2.079 %
LEA: 1.487 %
low: -0.243 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated short-term volatility driven by confirmed bearish momentum signals (MACD negative and DI+ declining) and a positive but falling MRO that implies downward price realignment toward valuation targets. Technical structure points to resistance near the 20–50 day averages (~$126–$128) and support between the 1x and 2x lower Bollinger bounds (~$114–$121), with the 200-day average (~$108) acting as a deeper support band if downside widens. Fundamental context — under-valued per WMDST but with compressed margins and elevated leverage metrics — suggests any durable recovery will require margin stabilization or demonstrable cash-flow improvement in upcoming reports.

About Lear Corporation

Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) designs and manufactures automotive seating and electrical distribution systems for original equipment manufacturers globally. With a focus on North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America, Lear delivers comprehensive solutions for the automotive industry. The company’s Seating segment develops seat systems and components, including trim covers, mechanisms, foams, and headrests. These products cater to a range of vehicles, from light trucks and compact cars to sport utility vehicles. Lear also provides surface materials such as leather and fabric, enhancing both functionality and aesthetics. In its E-Systems segment, Lear produces electrical distribution and connection systems that facilitate signal routing and power management within vehicles. This includes wire harnesses, terminals, connectors, and junction boxes. The segment also offers electronic system products like control modules and power control systems, along with software and connected services for in-vehicle commerce and cloud integration. Headquartered in Southfield, Michigan, Lear Corporation continues to supply innovative automotive solutions under various brands, meeting the evolving needs of the global automotive market.



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