Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Targets Near-Term Upside As Momentum Builds

Semtech moves from consolidation into a phase where event-driven demand and improving margins support a constructive near-term bias. Technical momentum aligns with product demonstrations and trade-show visibility that could reinforce revenue cadence.

Recent News

Dec. 9, 2025 — Semtech announced a CES 2026 showcase highlighting LoRa connectivity, PerSe sensing, and unified cellular/satellite IoT modules; the company outlined demonstrations of high-throughput LR2021 capabilities. Jan. 27, 2026 — company recaps from CES emphasized multi-protocol LoRa Plus, edge-AI demos, and partner deployments across smart-city and consumer use cases. Feb. 26, 2026 — Semtech confirmed participation at MWC26 Barcelona to present cellular IoT and LoRa portfolios and noted LoRa Alliance milestones for global deployments.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators present a nascent bullish signal while trend strength remains weak: ADX sits at 12.35, indicating no established trend, yet DI+ (20.18) produced a dip-and-reversal and DI- (15.59) shows a peak-and-reversal, both consistent with a directional shift toward bullishness; limited ADX suggests any advance may lack sustained strength without follow-through.

MACD favors upside momentum: MACD reads 2.65 with the MACD line above the signal line (2.54) and a dip-and-reversal pattern, constituting a bullish momentum cross that supports near-term positive price bias versus moving-average anchors.

MRO at 31.96 and increasing indicates the market price sits meaningfully above the modeled target; that excess implies an elevated reversion risk and tempers momentum-driven upside by increasing the probability of a pullback toward intrinsic targets.

RSI at 58.48 with a recent dip-and-reversal shows strength without overbought conditions, aligning with price trading above short- and medium-term averages: 20-day average at $88.02, 50-day average at $80.29 and 200-day average at $62.57. The 12-day EMA likewise posted a dip-and-reversal, reinforcing a short-term recovery narrative.

Price sits near the upper Bollinger band (upper 1x = $90.16) at a closing $90.49, indicating upside extension relative to recent volatility; elevated betas (42-day 2.16; 52-week 2.46) highlight heightened sensitivity to market moves and news flow, which increases event-driven swing risk.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability remains mixed. EBIT equals $7,880,000 and EBITDA $19,401,000, yielding an EBIT margin of 2.95%, which sits well below the industry peer mean (33.335%) and median (31.707%) while above the industry peer low (-113.66%). Operating margin sits at 11.916% with year-over-year operating-margin improvement of 58.922% (operatingMarginYoY +58.922%), signaling operational leverage in recent periods.

Revenue dynamics show a strong sequential rebound but steep annual comparisons: revenue growth quarter-over-quarter equals +40.02%, while revenue growth year-over-year equals -63.47%. Receivables and inventory metrics extended working-capital days—cash-conversion-cycle at 136.76 days, slightly above the industry peer mean of 122.60 days—indicating slower cash conversion versus typical peers.

Earnings per share exceeded consensus this period: EPS actual $0.48 versus estimate $0.45, a $0.03 beat and a surprise ratio of +6.67%. QoQ earnings growth surged (+116.25%), while YoY earnings contracted (-87.48%), reflecting volatile comparables and recent operational improvement from a depressed prior-year base.

Balance-sheet and cash metrics show liquidity headroom: cash and short-term investments total $164,670,000 and current ratio at 2.43 with a quick ratio of 1.71. Total debt equals $490,486,000 and net debt $325,816,000, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.867; interest coverage stands at 2.29, sufficient but modest relative to low-cost debt metrics.

Valuation multiples convey premium positioning. Trailing PE reads 133.56 and forward PE 150.43; price-to-book at 10.46 sits above the industry peer mean (4.92), median (4.06) and high (8.06). Enterprise value measures show EV ≈ $6,243,199,261 and an enterprise multiple of 321.80. Free-cash-flow yield equals 0.71% and free-cash-flow totals $42,008,000, with free-cash-flow growth negative versus the prior period. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued, reflecting a premium multiple relative to both historical profitability and peer book values.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-10-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-24
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-23
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 168.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 47.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -5.45 M
 Change In Working Capital -5.89 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -3.89 M
 End Period Cash Flow 164.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 267.0 M
 Forward Revenue -1.17 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 128.5 M
 Depreciation 11.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 11.5 M
 Research and Development 49.4 M
 Total Operating Expenses 235.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 138.5 M
 EBITDA 19.4 M
 EBIT 7.9 M
 Operating Income 31.8 M
 Interest Income 790.0 K
 Interest Expense 3.4 M
 Net Interest Income -5.69 M
 Income Before Tax 4.4 M
 Tax Provision 7.3 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -2.86 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -2.86 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.45
 EPS Actual 0.48
 EPS Difference 0.03
 EPS Surprise 6.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.54
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 525.2 M
 Net Tangible Assets 40.4 M
 Total Current Assets 620.9 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 164.7 M
 Cash 164.7 M
 Net Receivables 164.8 M
 Inventory 185.7 M
 Long-Term Investments 115.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 75.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 255.1 M
 Net Debt 325.8 M
 Total Debt 490.5 M
 Total Liabilities 840.2 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 565.7 M
 Retained Earnings -406.27 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 6.13
 Shares Outstanding 92.303 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.89
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.9 B
 Enterprise Value 6.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 321.798
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -131.81 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 114.589 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA SMTC: 321.798
high: 296.548
mean: 56.473
median: 44.001
low: -33.375
 EV/R 23.385
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.485
 Asset To Liability 1.673
 Debt To Capital 0.464
 Debt To Assets 0.349
Debt To Assets QoQ -5.483 %
Debt To Assets YoY -59.581 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA SMTC: 0.349
high: 0.279
mean: 0.184
median: 0.181
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 0.867
Debt To Equity QoQ -7.616 %
Debt To Equity YoY -110.176 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.279
SMTC: 0.867
mean: 0.336
median: 0.256
low: 0.003
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 10.461
Price To Book QoQ 36.532 %
Price To Book YoY -143.85 %
Price To Book IPRWA SMTC: 10.461
high: 8.063
mean: 4.921
median: 4.056
low: 0.806
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 133.559
Price To Earnings QoQ 16.486 %
Price To Earnings YoY -21.427 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 305.636
SMTC: 133.559
mean: 75.376
median: 44.32
low: -140.039
 PE/G Ratio 7.823
 Price To Sales (P/S) 22.165
Price To Sales QoQ 34.775 %
Price To Sales YoY 57.521 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 97.421
mean: 24.384
SMTC: 22.165
median: 17.485
low: 3.249
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 150.435
Forward PE/G 8.811
Forward P/S -6.664
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -40.807
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.19
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.605 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.138 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.238
SMTC: 0.19
mean: 0.163
median: 0.162
low: 0.034
 Receivables Turnover 1.678
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.965 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.643 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.908
mean: 2.35
median: 2.058
SMTC: 1.678
low: 0.942
 Inventory Turnover 0.696
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.309 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -3.989 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.844
mean: 0.741
median: 0.724
SMTC: 0.696
low: 0.485
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 54.39
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 136.761
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -0.818 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 3.938 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 196.578
SMTC: 136.761
median: 125.075
mean: 122.596
low: 48.891
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.73
 CapEx To Revenue -0.02
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.473
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 40.4 M
 Net Working Capital 365.7 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.645
 Current Ratio 2.433
Current Ratio QoQ -3.789 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.733 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 11.3
mean: 3.008
median: 2.46
SMTC: 2.433
low: 0.939
 Quick Ratio 1.705
Quick Ratio QoQ -3.931 %
Quick Ratio YoY 1.845 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 10.329
mean: 2.303
median: 1.779
SMTC: 1.705
low: 0.579
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 25.281
 Cost Of Debt 0.894 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.294
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -185.014 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 175.486 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 82.905
mean: 43.653
median: 21.988
SMTC: 2.294
low: -74.981
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.003
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 53.975
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.0 %
 Revenue Growth 3.642 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 40.023 %
Revenue Growth YoY -63.47 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 35.562 %
mean: 12.729 %
median: 8.704 %
SMTC: 3.642 %
low: -14.38 %
 Earnings Growth 17.073 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 116.251 %
Earnings Growth YoY -87.48 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 147.917 %
mean: 23.458 %
SMTC: 17.073 %
median: 9.677 %
low: -33.333 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 51.87 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.369 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.549 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 78.591 %
mean: 56.165 %
median: 56.043 %
SMTC: 51.87 %
low: 0.701 %
 EBIT Margin 2.952 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -146.924 %
EBIT Margin YoY -60.63 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 60.153 %
mean: 33.335 %
median: 31.707 %
SMTC: 2.952 %
low: -113.66 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 11.916 %
Return On Sales QoQ 12.479 %
Return On Sales YoY 58.922 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 60.153 %
mean: 32.356 %
median: 30.727 %
SMTC: 11.916 %
low: -113.66 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 42.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.71 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -23.409 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -15.976 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.536 %
mean: 1.631 %
median: 1.282 %
SMTC: 0.71 %
low: -3.494 %
 Free Cash Growth 6.997 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -86.821 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -102.103 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 801.545 %
mean: 27.258 %
median: 23.043 %
SMTC: 6.997 %
low: -80.236 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -14.678
 Cash Flow Margin -0.255 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.238
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.204 %
Return On Assets QoQ -89.303 %
Return On Assets YoY -63.043 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.02 %
median: 5.823 %
mean: 4.728 %
SMTC: -0.204 %
low: -4.976 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.685 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.005
Return On Equity QoQ -89.663 %
Return On Equity YoY -109.317 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.13
median: 0.089
mean: 0.08
SMTC: -0.005
low: -0.036
 DuPont ROE -0.512 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.589 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -149.33 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -55.748 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.306 %
median: 7.826 %
mean: 6.111 %
SMTC: 0.589 %
low: -7.625 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should respond to trade-show cadence and momentum technicals. Bullish MACD cross, price above short- and medium-term averages, and RSI recovery favor upward drift, particularly around event-driven product visibility at MWC26 and follow-on partner announcements. Offsetting forces include a positive, rising MRO that signals price sits above modeled targets and proximity to the upper Bollinger band, which raises pullback risk during profit-taking or weaker-than-expected event reception. Elevated betas amplify moves in either direction; volume slightly above recent 10-day averages suggests modest retail and institutional participation.

Fundamentals offer a mixed backdrop for the coming six weeks: improving sequential revenue and margin trends support upside conviction, while premium multiples and subdued free-cash-flow yield limit the margin of safety and increase sensitivity to execution. Short-term momentum likely dominates unless a material fundamental update changes revenue or margin expectations.

About Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) designs, develops, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company delivers signal integrity solutions, offering optical data communications and video transport products for infrastructure and industrial applications. Semtech provides integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, and high-speed interface applications, alongside video products for broadcast and video-over-IP technology for professional audio-visual applications. In the protection segment, Semtech offers devices that integrate filter and termination solutions with transient voltage suppressors to safeguard electronic systems against voltage spikes. The company’s sensing products include specialized radio frequency solutions for industrial, medical, and communications sectors, along with advanced sensing technologies. Semtech also develops power management solutions such as switching voltage regulators, smart regulators, and wireless charging products. Its Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio features modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based solutions for various applications. Serving original equipment manufacturers and industrial markets, Semtech distributes its products directly and through independent sales representatives and distributors across Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe. Founded in 1960, Semtech Corporation maintains its headquarters in Camarillo, California.



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