Privia Health Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PRVA) Projects Continued Margin Expansion Despite Overvalued Valuation

Operational metrics and buy-side attention point to improving margin dynamics, while valuation multiples and forward estimates keep the security priced above WMDST’s intrinsic calibration.

Recent News

Nov. 26, 2025: Investor’s Business Daily reported a rise in Privia Health’s Relative Strength rating to 74. Dec. 4–7, 2025: Stephens reiterated an Overweight rating with a $32 target and multiple broker notes raised price objectives. Jan. 18–31, 2026: analyst consensus stayed at a “Moderate Buy,” and market commentary tied short-term pressure to broader Medicare/MA sector headlines.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show no established trend: ADX reads 18.35, which indicates a lack of a strong directional trend and suggests range-bound action is more likely than a sustained breakout.

DI+ (15.4) increases while DI– (22.38) shows a dip-and-reversal pattern; the present DI– dominance coupled with DI+ rising produces a mixed directional picture that leans toward short-term downside pressure until DI+ overtakes DI– decisively.

Momentum measures signal weakening price thrust: MACD stands at –0.42 with the MACD signal at –0.41 and the MACD trend labeled peak-and-reversal, which constitutes bearish momentum and indicates the MACD did not cross above its signal line.

MRO equals –12.89 and is decreasing; the negative MRO implies the current price sits below WMDST’s target and therefore contains potential upward corrective pressure, but the decreasing MRO trend reduces the immediacy of that potential.

RSI at 44.82 with a peak-and-reversal trend points to recent loss of upside momentum and room to trade lower before entering oversold territory.

Price sits below the 12-day EMA (12-day EMA = $22.00) and below the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages ($21.87, $23.19, $22.96 respectively), and inside the lower Bollinger band area (lower 1σ $21.54). Ichimoku components place price beneath the cloud (Senkou A $23.83, Senkou B $24.46), reinforcing short-term technical resistance above current levels.

Volume sits near recent averages (10-day avg 573,791 vs. today 741,936) but below the 200-day mean, implying insufficient conviction for a trend reversal at present. Collectively, these technicals support a near-term bias toward consolidation with modest downside risk unless momentum indicators flip bullish.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and margins: total revenue equals $580.4M and WMDST reports revenue growth of 11.37%; quarter-over-quarter revenue growth registers +32.98% while year‑over‑year revenue growth shows +207.93% per supplied labels. Gross margin equals 10.99% and operating (EBIT) margin equals 2.48%.

Profitability dynamics improved sharply: EBIT of $14.40M and EBITDA of $17.17M reflect an EBIT margin increase QoQ of +287.66% and YoY of +86.96%, indicating rapid margin recovery from the prior period baseline. Against the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 5.542% and median 1.203%, Privia’s 2.481% margin sits below the peer mean yet above the peer median.

Per‑share and cash metrics: reported EPS of $0.29 exceeded the $0.22 estimate by $0.07, a surprise ratio of +31.82%. Cash and short‑term investments equal $441.35M with negligible debt (total debt $6.24M), producing a cash ratio of 0.76 and a current ratio of 1.67—liquidity remains a structural strength for operational flexibility.

Valuation multiples show elevated market expectations: trailing P/E equals 82.25x and forward P/E equals 341.31x; price-to-book sits at 4.13x, above the industry peer mean of 3.63265 and well above the peer median of 1.78474. Enterprise multiple and EV/Revenue are elevated (enterprise multiple ~145.34, EVR 4.30), and WMDST classifies the current valuation as over‑valued.

Cash generation: free cash flow equals $51.99M with a free cash flow yield of 1.77%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 1.533% as provided. Free cash flow growth shows mixed signs (free cash growth YoY large negative in supplied label yet quarter figures show pockets of improvement), so cash conversion merits monitoring even though absolute cash balances remain strong.

Returns and leverage: return on equity approximates 0.97% and return on assets 0.52%, both modest while debt-to-equity at 0.88% indicates very low financial leverage. Cost of debt reads as a high nominal figure in supplied labels, but the company’s near-zero debt stock renders interest exposure immaterial.

Valuation summary: improved top-line growth, substantial YoY and QoQ margin expansion, and a large cash balance create a constructive operational profile; however, rich multiples—especially forward P/E—and WMDST’s over‑valued classification imply the market already prices substantial execution and growth expectations.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 390.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow 52.0 M
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital 13.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 51.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 441.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 580.4 M
 Forward Revenue 682.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 516.6 M
 Depreciation 165.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization 2.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 566.0 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 63.8 M
 EBITDA 17.2 M
 EBIT 14.4 M
 Operating Income 14.4 M
 Interest Income 2.3 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 2.3 M
 Income Before Tax 16.7 M
 Tax Provision 6.9 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 6.9 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 9.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.22
 EPS Actual 0.29
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 31.818 %
 Forward EPS 0.26
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 339.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 369.4 M
 Total Current Assets 970.9 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 441.4 M
 Cash 441.4 M
 Net Receivables 499.0 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 16.9 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 10.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 582.9 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 6.2 M
 Total Liabilities 588.2 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 709.1 M
 Retained Earnings -165.46 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 5.77
 Shares Outstanding 122.868 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.72
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.9 B
 Enterprise Value 2.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 145.344
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -61.405 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -38.381 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 190.244
PRVA: 145.344
median: 48.181
mean: -1.814
low: -219.035
 EV/R 4.299
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.905
 Asset To Liability 2.297
 Debt To Capital 0.009
 Debt To Assets 0.005
Debt To Assets QoQ -11.494 %
Debt To Assets YoY 105.333 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.956
mean: 0.326
median: 0.309
PRVA: 0.005
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.009
Debt To Equity QoQ -9.661 %
Debt To Equity YoY 109.286 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.466
mean: 1.055
median: 0.879
PRVA: 0.009
low: -1.645
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.133
Price To Book QoQ 8.018 %
Price To Book YoY 14.751 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 27.592
PRVA: 4.133
mean: 3.633
median: 1.785
low: -9.335
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 82.245
Price To Earnings QoQ -7.846 %
Price To Earnings YoY -86.635 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 517.132
PRVA: 82.245
mean: 78.94
median: 64.535
low: -80.57
 PE/G Ratio 3.948
 Price To Sales (P/S) 5.049
Price To Sales QoQ 0.719 %
Price To Sales YoY -0.152 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 28.774
mean: 6.114
PRVA: 5.049
median: 3.476
low: 0.079
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 341.313
Forward PE/G 16.383
Forward P/S 17.35
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 29.172
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.442
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.263 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 12.313 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.945
PRVA: 0.442
median: 0.397
mean: 0.332
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.231
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.656 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 9.487 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 10.974
mean: 4.419
median: 2.904
PRVA: 1.231
low: 0.147
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 74.129
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 72.266
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 132.972
PRVA: 72.266
median: 14.524
mean: 10.911
low: -85.326
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.496
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 709.1 M
 Net Invested Capital 709.1 M
 Invested Capital 709.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 369.4 M
 Net Working Capital 388.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.757
 Current Ratio 1.666
Current Ratio QoQ 0.897 %
Current Ratio YoY -6.457 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.656
PRVA: 1.666
mean: 1.25
median: 0.832
low: 0.004
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.363
 Cost Of Debt 34939.359 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.005
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 332.479 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 148.039 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 30.491
mean: 2.005
median: 1.758
PRVA: 0.005
low: -59.14
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.076
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 1.863
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.164 %
 Revenue Growth 11.372 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 32.975 %
Revenue Growth YoY 207.934 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 14.194 %
PRVA: 11.372 %
mean: 2.801 %
median: 1.992 %
low: -22.095 %
 Earnings Growth 20.833 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 129.161 %
Earnings Growth YoY 295.839 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 131.373 %
PRVA: 20.833 %
mean: -6.462 %
median: -11.602 %
low: -234.091 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 10.987 %
Gross Margin QoQ 13.961 %
Gross Margin YoY 6.093 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 87.689 %
mean: 28.235 %
median: 25.598 %
PRVA: 10.987 %
low: -9.25 %
 EBIT Margin 2.481 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 287.656 %
EBIT Margin YoY 86.963 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 32.526 %
mean: 5.542 %
PRVA: 2.481 %
median: 1.203 %
low: -43.522 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.481 %
Return On Sales QoQ 287.656 %
Return On Sales YoY 86.963 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 29.872 %
mean: 8.105 %
median: 5.889 %
PRVA: 2.481 %
low: -43.781 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 52.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.774 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 481.639 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 18.504 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 14.006 %
PRVA: 1.774 %
mean: 1.533 %
median: 1.231 %
low: -18.788 %
 Free Cash Growth 552.29 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -514.856 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -14599.606 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 558.205 %
PRVA: 552.29 %
mean: -11.917 %
median: -49.804 %
low: -423.827 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 7.578
 Cash Flow Margin -7.618 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -6.445
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.63
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.523 %
Return On Assets QoQ 138.813 %
Return On Assets YoY 64.465 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.577 %
PRVA: 0.523 %
median: 0.355 %
mean: 0.324 %
low: -22.496 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.875 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.01
Return On Equity QoQ 146.31 %
Return On Equity YoY 68.348 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.378
mean: 0.015
median: 0.011
PRVA: 0.01
low: -0.391
 DuPont ROE 0.986 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.605 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 315.803 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -246.575 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.725 %
PRVA: 1.605 %
median: 0.766 %
mean: 0.603 %
low: -22.633 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation in the near term with asymmetric drivers: technical momentum and trend strength remain subdued (ADX < 20; MACD and RSI weakened), so expect price to trade inside recent averages and the lower Bollinger band region unless momentum reverses. The negative MRO indicates price sits below fair-target levels, offering potential for corrective upside, but that signal weakens while MRO decreases. Monitor DI+ versus DI– for a decisive directional shift; a sustained DI+ advance above DI– combined with MACD crossing above its signal would materially change the short-range bias. Given elevated valuation and mixed momentum, probability favors range-bound swings rather than an immediate breakout over the next six weeks.

About Privia Health Group, Inc.

Privia Health Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PRVA) develops a national physician-enablement platform in the United States. The company collaborates with medical groups, health plans, and health systems to streamline physician practices and improve patient care experiences. By offering technology solutions and population health tools, Privia Health enhances the efficiency of independent providers’ workflows. It provides a management services organization that reduces administrative burdens, allowing providers to concentrate on patient care. Through its single-TIN medical group, the company facilitates payer negotiations, clinical integration, and aligns financial incentives. Privia Health also manages accountable care organizations that engage patients, reduce unnecessary healthcare utilization, and improve coordination and quality metrics, promoting value-based care. Additionally, it offers a network for purchasers and payers, enabling providers to connect with new patient populations and create tailored contracts. Founded in 2007, Privia Health Group, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.



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