FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Poised To Extend Momentum After Technical Breakout

Momentum favors continuation into the near term while fundamentals show improving margins and strong cash coverage. Short-term upside faces overbought pressure and valuation tension versus operating profitability.

Recent News

Feb. 12, 2026 — FedEx hosted its 2026 Investor Day, unveiling strategic initiatives focused on premium verticals, digital and AI scaling, network transformation, and targets for margin and free-cash-flow improvement. Jan. 27, 2026 — FedEx Freight priced $3.7 billion of senior notes as part of financing for the planned spin-off. Jan. 25, 2026 — analyst consensus aggregated to a “Hold” recommendation, with mixed individual target revisions and a broker twelve‑month average price objective below current trading levels.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators: ADX measures 41.92, indicating a very strong trend; DI+ sits at 44.34 and is increasing, while DI- reads 11.58 and is decreasing — a clear bullish directional picture that supports the near-term continuation implicit in the introduction.

MACD momentum: MACD equals 17.41 and is increasing, above the signal line at 13.55, which confirms bullish momentum and suggests continuation of recent upside in the near term.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO registers 18.9 and is increasing; because MRO sits positive, price trades above the target and shows heightened potential for corrective pressure even as momentum remains constructive.

RSI and overbought condition: RSI equals 71.87 and is increasing, indicating overbought conditions that raise the probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation despite bullish momentum signals.

Price vs averages and bands: Close at $367.16 sits well above the 200‑day average ($250.95) and above the 20‑day average ($340.15); price12‑day EMA at $349.76 trends upward. The stock trades nearer the upper Bollinger band (upper 1x = $369.49), reinforcing that gains have moved price toward short-term extremes and increasing the chance of a consolidation phase relative to the WMDST valuation context.

Volume and volatility: Ten‑day average volume (2,245,543) exceeds the latest session volume (1,848,281), while 42‑day volatility stays low (0.02), suggesting moves occurred with moderate participation and leave room for follow‑through if volume reaccelerates.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Operating profitability and margins: Operating (EBIT) equals $1,621,000,000 and operating margin stands at 6.907%, up 18.37% QoQ and up 10.11% YoY — margin expansion aligns with management’s network transformation goals and supports the valuation narrative. Compared with the industry peer mean operating margin of 30.776% and median of 42.63%, operating margin remains below the industry peer mean and median.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue registers $23,469,000,000 with revenue growth YoY at 2.06% and revenue growth QoQ at 49.99% (seasonal timing reflected). YoY revenue growth remains modest while sequential growth shows strong seasonal lift, which complements margin progress for near‑term earnings quality.

Earnings and cash flow: Reported EPS actual at $4.82 versus estimate $4.11 produces an EPS surprise of +17.3%. Operating cash flow equals $1,951,000,000 and free cash flow equals $1,194,000,000; free cash flow yield totals 1.962%, above the industry peer mean of 0.647%, indicating relatively strong cash conversion against peers.

Capital structure and coverage: Total debt equals $37,766,000,000 with net debt of $14,625,000,000. Debt to assets stands at 42.35%, modestly above the industry peer mean of 36.03% and median of 38.26% but below the peer high. Debt to equity equals 1.342 and debt to EBITDA runs 14.04; interest coverage equals 16.89x, well above the industry peer mean of 8.14x, demonstrating ample coverage of interest obligations.

Valuation context: Trailing PE equals 53.73 and forward PE equals 47.12; price-to-book equals 2.16 (below the industry peer mean of 6.05 and median of 7.37). Enterprise multiple sits at 34.23, slightly below the industry peer range low. WMDST values the stock as under‑valued, a conclusion that balances above‑average profitability improvement, strong cash coverage, and a capital structure that shows higher leverage but robust interest coverage.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-11-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-12-18
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-03-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 6.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.0 B
 Capital Expenditures -757.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.18 B
 Dividends Paid -342.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 404.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 6.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 23.5 B
 Forward Revenue 7.7 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 18.3 B
 Depreciation 1.1 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.1 B
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 21.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.1 B
 EBITDA 2.7 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.6 B
 Interest Income -135.00 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income -135.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.3 B
 Tax Provision 333.0 M
 Tax Rate 25.8 %
 Net Income 956.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 956.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.11
 EPS Actual 4.82
 EPS Difference 0.71
 EPS Surprise 17.275 %
 Forward EPS 5.35
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 89.2 B
 Intangible Assets 6.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Total Current Assets 20.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 6.6 B
 Cash 6.6 B
 Net Receivables 12.2 B
 Inventory 631.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 4.4 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 4.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 901.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 16.2 B
 Net Debt 14.6 B
 Total Debt 37.8 B
 Total Liabilities 61.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 28.1 B
 Retained Earnings 42.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 119.74
 Shares Outstanding 235.000 M
 Revenue Per-Share 99.87
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 60.9 B
 Enterprise Value 92.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 34.234
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -4.1 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 32.631 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.058
mean: 50.635
median: 49.865
low: 34.46
FDX: 34.234
 EV/R 3.922
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.169
 Asset To Liability 1.461
 Debt To Capital 0.573
 Debt To Assets 0.423
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.222 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6010.823 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.499
FDX: 0.423
median: 0.383
mean: 0.36
low: 0.091
 Debt To Equity 1.342
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.676 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5899.464 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.198
FDX: 1.342
mean: 1.203
median: 1.113
low: 0.166
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.163
Price To Book QoQ 12.103 %
Price To Book YoY -15.148 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 9.141
median: 7.369
mean: 6.049
FDX: 2.163
low: 1.344
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 53.73
Price To Earnings QoQ -9.372 %
Price To Earnings YoY -22.289 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 219.55
mean: 137.396
FDX: 53.73
median: 38.512
low: -54.552
 PE/G Ratio 2.079
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.593
Price To Sales QoQ 7.663 %
Price To Sales YoY -15.536 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 22.365
median: 22.128
mean: 19.497
FDX: 2.593
low: 1.646
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.12
Forward PE/G 1.823
Forward P/S 7.985
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.519
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.264
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.454
FDX: 0.264
mean: 0.113
median: 0.088
low: 0.066
 Receivables Turnover 1.983
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.982 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.129
mean: 3.585
median: 3.219
FDX: 1.983
low: 1.261
 Inventory Turnover 29.696
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.031 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 5.116 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA FDX: 29.696
high: 7.06
mean: 4.594
median: 4.257
low: 1.117
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 46.025
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 26.132
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.379 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.26 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 27.149
FDX: 26.132
mean: 1.611
median: -11.772
low: -28.004
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.287
 CapEx To Revenue -0.032
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.709
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 48.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Net Working Capital 4.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.405
 Current Ratio 1.274
Current Ratio QoQ 2.224 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.449 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.447
FDX: 1.274
median: 0.847
mean: 0.835
low: 0.666
 Quick Ratio 1.235
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.295 %
Quick Ratio YoY 3.924 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.347
FDX: 1.235
median: 0.751
mean: 0.707
low: 0.47
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 14.045
 Cost Of Debt 0.188 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 16.885
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 24.884 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 17.634 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA FDX: 16.885
high: 13.403
median: 8.409
mean: 8.139
low: -4.667
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.111
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 23.104
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.795
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.358
 Dividend Rate 1.46
 Dividend Yield 0.006
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.865 %
 Revenue Growth 5.507 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 4999.074 %
Revenue Growth YoY 206.285 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA
 Earnings Growth 25.849 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -170.046 %
Earnings Growth YoY 106.792 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 237.5 %
FDX: 25.849 %
mean: 14.01 %
low: -75.342 %
median: -75.342 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 21.867 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.625 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.903 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 86.14 %
median: 43.929 %
mean: 34.891 %
FDX: 21.867 %
low: 8.624 %
 EBIT Margin 6.907 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 18.372 %
EBIT Margin YoY 10.107 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 44.914 %
median: 42.63 %
mean: 30.776 %
FDX: 6.907 %
low: -2.859 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.907 %
Return On Sales QoQ 18.372 %
Return On Sales YoY 10.107 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 39.458 %
median: 38.937 %
mean: 29.387 %
FDX: 6.907 %
low: -0.613 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.962 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -3.824 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 164.777 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA FDX: 1.962 %
high: 1.663 %
median: 0.901 %
mean: 0.647 %
low: -0.558 %
 Free Cash Growth 9.241 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 105.675 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -51.486 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 133.903 %
mean: 10.381 %
FDX: 9.241 %
median: -22.01 %
low: -53.611 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.249
 Cash Flow Margin 7.648 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.878
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.077 %
Return On Assets QoQ 15.064 %
Return On Assets YoY 25.087 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.672 %
median: 2.148 %
mean: 1.674 %
FDX: 1.077 %
low: -1.42 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.222 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.034
Return On Equity QoQ 14.493 %
Return On Equity YoY 21.321 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.1
median: 0.058
mean: 0.056
FDX: 0.034
low: -0.03
 DuPont ROE 3.419 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.438 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 26.452 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -110.397 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 4.171 %
median: 3.327 %
mean: 2.818 %
FDX: 2.438 %
low: -1.948 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near‑term bias remains bullish: strong trend strength (ADX >40) and MACD momentum above its signal line favor continued upside extension over the next six weeks. Overbought readings (RSI >70) and a positive MRO caution that rallies may encounter corrective episodes or sideways consolidation, particularly if volume fails to pick up. Fundamental improvements in margins and superior free‑cash conversion provide a constructive backdrop that reduces the likelihood of a sustained reversal absent negative news. For swing timeframes, expect trend continuation punctuated by short corrective pulls until momentum or directional indicators reverse.

About FedEx Corporation

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) delivers comprehensive logistics and transportation solutions worldwide. Established in 1971 and based in Memphis, Tennessee, FedEx organizes its operations into distinct segments to address diverse shipping needs. FedEx Express provides swift air and ground delivery services, optimizing solutions for time-sensitive shipments across the globe. FedEx Ground emphasizes efficient delivery of small packages, offering cost-effective options for both businesses and individual customers. In the freight domain, FedEx Freight manages less-than-truckload (LTL) services, ensuring precise and careful handling of larger shipments. Beyond transportation, FedEx Services supports clients with a range of offerings in sales, marketing, IT, and customer service, enhancing the overall customer experience. The company also strengthens supply chain management through air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and third-party logistics services. FedEx’s commitment to reliable service and customer satisfaction underpins its role in connecting businesses and consumers in an increasingly interconnected global economy. By continually adapting to the evolving demands of commerce, FedEx maintains its position as a key player in the logistics and transportation industry.



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