Recent News
On Jan. 5, 2026 Vistra executed definitive agreements to acquire Cogentrix Energy’s 10 natural‑gas facilities (about 5,500 MW) for a net purchase price near $4.0 billion, including cash, stock consideration, and assumed debt. On Jan. 12, 2026 Vistra priced a private offering of $2.25 billion of senior secured notes to help fund the Cogentrix transaction and corporate uses; the 2031 and 2036 notes carry interest in the mid‑4% to mid‑5% range. On Jan. 23, 2026 Vistra confirmed it will report fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results on Feb. 26, 2026.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show a weak market structure: ADX at 13.48 signals no dominant trend, while DI+ at 18.57 trending lower and DI– at 26.41 showing a dip & reversal produce a net bearish directional bias; that combination suggests momentum favors the downside despite limited trend strength.
MACD stands negative at −4.30 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern and the MACD line below the signal (−2.65), indicating bearish momentum consolidation and no bullish crossover to support a sustained recovery.
MRO reads −27.01 (negative), indicating the current price sits below WMDST’s target framework and therefore contains technical potential for mean reversion upward; the reading, however, accompanies other bearish signals and so represents a conditional counter‑bias rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
RSI at 43.42 with a peak‑and‑reversal profile aligns with weakening upside momentum and leaves room for further downside before reaching classic oversold territory.
Price relationships add weight to the negative bias: the close at $143.07 tracks below the 20‑day average ($157.60), 50‑day average ($164.72), and 200‑day average ($178.91), while the 12‑day EMA sits at $155.14 and is decreasing—price trading beneath key moving averages implies sellers control near‑term price discovery and elevates the probability of continued weakness relative to the current valuation.
Ichimoku components place price beneath the cloud (Senkou A $171.65, Senkou B $187.88), reinforcing a bearish interpretation; the super trend upper band at $159.83 acts as a nearer‑term technical cap on upside attempts. Bollinger bands show the close below the 1x lower band ($149.34) but above the 2x lower band ($141.07), signaling increased volatility and a stretched intra‑band move.
Volatility and volume confirm active repositioning: 42‑day beta 2.79 (short‑term sensitivity elevated) and current volume (~7.1M) exceeds short and long average volumes, implying the market trades the news and balance‑sheet implications rather than quiet accumulation. Overall, technicals bias toward further consolidation or decline until price clears moving averages or momentum indicators reverse decisively.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and margins: total revenue stands at $4,971,000,000 with YoY revenue contraction of −73.30% but a large QoQ increase of 110.48%; the year‑over‑year decline reflects period timing and portfolio effects, while the quarter‑over‑quarter rebound indicates recovering operational throughput. Gross margin at 39.15% declined YoY by −28.96% but improved QoQ by 7.83%.
Profitability and earnings: EBIT $1,098,000,000 delivers an EBIT margin of 22.09%—below the industry peer mean of 34.00% and below the industry peer median of 41.13%—with a QoQ margin improvement of 44.20% but a YoY margin decline of −46.91%, pointing to material year‑over‑year pressure offset by recent operational gains. Reported EPS of $1.75 missed the $1.96 estimate by $0.21 (a −10.71% surprise), which the market priced into near‑term sentiment.
Cash flow and capital allocation: operating cash flow reached $1,467,000,000 and free cash flow totaled $1,009,000,000 (free‑cash‑flow yield ~1.52%), outperforming the industry peer mean free‑cash‑flow yield (negative on average) and implying cash generation capacity to support organic investment; free cash flow, however, fell YoY and free‑cash growth shows a multiyear contraction, indicating that acquisition funding and capex will tilt near‑term cash deployment toward growth and debt service.
Balance sheet and leverage: total debt $17,502,000,000 with net debt $16,611,000,000 yields debt/EBITDA near 9.78x and debt/equity 6.40—leverage sits well above typical peer medians and raises sensitivity to interest and refinancing cycles despite an interest coverage ratio of 4.54 that remains modestly above the industry peer mean of 4.40. The recent $2.25 billion note pricing and assumed Cogentrix indebtedness materially increase absolute leverage in the near term.
Efficiency and returns: asset turnover 0.1305 surpasses the industry peer mean of 0.0608, and return on equity at 23.85% and return on invested capital at 4.19% exceed industry peer means, showing asset productivity and capital returns remain constructive even as margins compress.
Valuation: price multiples appear elevated—P/E ~111.7 sits above the industry peer mean (≈81.38) but below the industry peer median (≈158.02); P/B at ~24.22 stands materially above the industry peer mean (~1.37) and median (~2.37), while the enterprise multiple ~46.45 exceeds the industry peer mean (~31.43). Given sizable leverage and the near‑term need to fund integration, WMDST values the stock as over‑valued relative to the company’s current risk and cash‑flow profile.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-07 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-06 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 495.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 1.5 B | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -458.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 29.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -98.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 143.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 638.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 5.0 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 1.5 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 3.0 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 691.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 691.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 3.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 1.9 B | |
| EBITDA | $ 1.8 B | |
| EBIT | $ 1.1 B | |
| Operating Income | $ 1.0 B | |
| Interest Income | $ 4.0 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 242.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -272.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 856.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 204.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 23.8 % | |
| Net Income | $ 652.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 652.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 1.96 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 1.75 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -0.21 | |
| EPS Surprise | -10.714 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 2.35 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 38.0 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 4.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 8.4 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 602.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 602.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 2.3 B | |
| Inventory | $ 970.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 1.4 B | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 1.4 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 1.5 B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 8.4 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 16.6 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 17.5 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 32.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.7 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -107.00 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 8.07 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 338.680 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 14.68 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 66.2 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 83.1 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 46.455 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -18.978 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 306.481 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 109.499 VST: 46.455 median: 37.284 mean: 31.434 low: -34.347 |
|
| EV/R | 16.718 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 13.906 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.159 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.865 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.46 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -2.687 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 1036.081 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.72 VST: 0.46 mean: 0.364 median: 0.311 low: 0.169 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 6.402 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -16.738 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 1136.524 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 7.982 VST: 6.402 mean: 2.546 median: 0.918 low: -3.563 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 24.216 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -10.394 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 91.844 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | VST: 24.216 high: 3.069 median: 2.374 mean: 1.369 low: -7.501 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 111.706 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -50.029 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 449.141 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 239.096 median: 158.025 VST: 111.706 mean: 81.38 low: -219.064 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 0.963 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 13.319 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.758 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 123.765 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 60.901 VST: 13.319 mean: 9.149 median: 2.89 low: 0.052 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 82.738 | |
| Forward PE/G | 0.713 | |
| Forward P/S | 43.613 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 4.047 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.131 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 17.288 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -20.077 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | VST: 0.131 high: 0.093 median: 0.067 mean: 0.061 low: 0.017 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.182 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 6.619 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -25.855 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.752 VST: 2.182 median: 1.641 mean: 1.552 low: 0.964 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 3.127 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 11.17 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 5.937 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.4 mean: 4.274 median: 4.149 VST: 3.127 low: 3.121 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 41.816 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 29.967 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -13.683 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 78.878 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 78.66 VST: 29.967 mean: 1.244 median: -0.434 low: -80.991 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | -110.467 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.092 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.663 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 21.0 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ -45.00 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.071 | |
| Current Ratio | 0.995 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 10.604 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -10.689 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.66 mean: 1.22 VST: 0.995 median: 0.884 low: 0.392 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 10.355 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -11.141 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 1.307 mean: 0.896 VST: 0.88 median: 0.703 low: 0.389 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 9.783 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.038 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.537 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 72.845 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -61.149 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 9.262 VST: 4.537 mean: 4.401 median: 1.94 low: -4.163 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.157 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 44.462 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 6.653 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.15 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.29 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.001 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.33 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 16.965 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 110.484 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -73.299 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 48.983 % mean: 25.544 % median: 19.307 % VST: 16.965 % low: -2.206 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 116.049 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -162.026 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -76.79 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | VST: 116.049 % high: 60.694 % median: 47.059 % mean: -66.239 % low: -404.63 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 39.147 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 7.825 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -28.959 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 71.592 % median: 41.168 % mean: 40.031 % VST: 39.147 % low: 11.262 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 22.088 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 44.196 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -46.908 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 105.059 % median: 41.132 % mean: 34.001 % VST: 22.088 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 20.962 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 52.807 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -49.614 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 49.102 % mean: 27.141 % median: 23.845 % VST: 20.962 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 1.0 B | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.524 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -919.355 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -43.909 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.423 % VST: 1.524 % median: -1.714 % mean: -3.123 % low: -10.519 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -955.085 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | 3064.839 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -2189.81 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 471.338 % mean: 197.742 % median: 169.236 % low: -111.656 % VST: -955.085 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 1.548 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 26.675 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 2.034 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 1.712 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 100.0 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -65.09 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.079 % mean: 1.758 % VST: 1.712 % median: 1.287 % low: -0.499 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 3.71 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.238 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 71.162 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -62.548 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.49 VST: 0.238 mean: 0.07 median: 0.059 low: -0.001 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 25.664 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.194 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 59.589 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -98.685 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | VST: 4.194 % high: 3.113 % mean: 1.922 % median: 1.536 % low: 0.841 % |
|