Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Strengthens Position As Near-Term Recovery Accelerates

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) shows early operational stabilization. WMDST values the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

Nov. 4, 2025 — Ambetter from WellCare of Kentucky announced availability across 108 Kentucky counties for plan year 2026, with enrollment running Nov. 1, 2025–Jan. 15, 2026. Nov. 18, 2025 — Buckeye Health Plan and the Centene Foundation announced a $200,000 investment to address food insecurity in Ohio. Nov. 19, 2025 — Wellcare outlined expanded Medicare Advantage and PDP offerings for 2026 across multiple states. Jan. 28, 2026 — WellCare of Kentucky and the Centene Foundation committed $145,000 to Kentucky food pantries and local nutrition programs.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show emerging trend strength with a bearish directional tilt: ADX at 20.47 indicates an emerging trend strength while DI+ decreases (25.44, decreasing) and DI− increases (29.84, increasing), which favors near-term downside pressure.

MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 0.59 vs signal 1.15) and the MACD trend declines, indicating bearish momentum that weighs on short-term upside until momentum reverses.

Price versus moving averages shows short-term weakness inside a broader constructive band: the close at $42.80 falls below the 12-day EMA ($43.95) and 20-day average ($44.78) but remains above the 50-day ($41.54) and 200-day ($41.12) averages, suggesting near-term resistance near the short-term averages while longer-term averages offer support.

MRO at −13.51 (negative) signals the market price sits below WMDST’s implied target, suggesting mean-reversion potential for price to increase; the MRO trend decreasing strengthens that potential. RSI at 57.65 with a peak-and-reversal reading points to a recent top and now-decelerating momentum.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and cash: EBIT stands at −$6,504,000,000 with an EBIT margin of −13.09%, versus an industry peer mean EBIT margin of 5.33% and median of 3.46%, placing Centene well below the industry peer mean and median. EBITDA equals −$6,187,000,000 and net income equals −$6,631,000,000. Operating income of −$211,000,000 produces an operating margin of −0.43%.

Recent movement: EBIT margin improved QoQ by 72.53% but declined YoY by 6.01%, reflecting sequential recovery after a weak prior period while year-over-year profitability remains under pressure.

Earnings metrics: Reported EPS of $0.50 exceeded the estimate of −$0.16, producing an EPS surprise ratio of 412.5%. Trailing P/E sits at 70.03x, above the industry peer mean of 60.79x and median of 54.99x, while forward P/E equals 19.46x reflecting materially lower forward multiples based on projected earnings.

Balance sheet and liquidity: Cash equals $17.06 billion and cash plus short-term investments equal $19.24 billion, leaving net debt at approximately $525.0 million. Debt-to-equity equals 83.94% and debt-to-assets equals 21.42%, indicating leverage that remains manageable against the cash position. Current ratio equals 1.08.

Cash generation and valuation signals: Free cash flow totals $1.145 billion with a free cash flow yield of 6.65%, above the industry peer mean of 2.18%, supporting the WMDST valuation case. Revenue totaled $49.69 billion; gross profit equaled $3.251 billion and gross margin measured 6.54%.

Growth and returns: Reported revenue shows deep sequential softness (QoQ revenue growth −57.27% and revenue growth YoY −64.57%) while longer-term indicators show mixed trends: return on equity at −31.66% and return on assets at −7.87% reflect recent losses but QoQ improvements in ROE (33.30%) and ROA (25.96%) indicate some recovery dynamics.

Valuation view: The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as under-valued, supported by a sizable cash balance, low net debt, and a free cash flow yield of 6.65%, offset by negative trailing earnings and margins. Forward earnings and a forward P/E near 19.5x present a materially different multiple profile versus the trailing P/E.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 14.6 B
 Operating Cash Flow 1.4 B
 Capital Expenditures -211.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 763.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 2.6 B
 End Period Cash Flow 17.2 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 49.7 B
 Forward Revenue -688.16 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 46.4 B
 Depreciation 147.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 317.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 49.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 3.3 B
 EBITDA -6.19 B
 EBIT -6.50 B
 Operating Income -211.00 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 170.0 M
 Net Interest Income -170.00 M
 Income Before Tax -6.67 B
 Tax Provision -42.00 M
 Tax Rate 0.629 %
 Net Income -6.63 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -6.63 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.16
 EPS Actual 0.50
 EPS Difference 0.66
 EPS Surprise 412.5 %
 Forward EPS 0.75
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 82.1 B
 Intangible Assets 15.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 5.3 B
 Total Current Assets 44.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 19.2 B
 Cash 17.1 B
 Net Receivables 23.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.0 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 16.9 B
 Short-Term Debt 38.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.6 B
 Net Debt 525.0 M
 Total Debt 17.6 B
 Total Liabilities 61.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 20.9 B
 Retained Earnings 9.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 42.63
 Shares Outstanding 491.414 M
 Revenue Per-Share 101.12
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 17.2 B
 Enterprise Value 15.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple -2.514
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -103.21 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -118.73 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 190.244
median: 35.913
mean: 12.901
CNC: -2.514
low: -105.843
 EV/R 0.313
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.919
 Asset To Liability 1.345
 Debt To Capital 0.456
 Debt To Assets 0.214
Debt To Assets QoQ 5.284 %
Debt To Assets YoY 15766.667 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.914
mean: 0.346
median: 0.262
CNC: 0.214
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.839
Debt To Equity QoQ 30.872 %
Debt To Equity YoY 20573.892 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.285
mean: 0.993
CNC: 0.839
median: 0.814
low: -0.295
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.821
Price To Book QoQ 28.208 %
Price To Book YoY -38.348 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.321
mean: 2.199
median: 1.722
CNC: 0.821
low: -1.461
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 70.028
Price To Earnings QoQ -176.556 %
Price To Earnings YoY 59.054 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 167.73
CNC: 70.028
mean: 60.79
median: 54.99
low: -41.31
 PE/G Ratio -0.17
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.346
Price To Sales QoQ -3.873 %
Price To Sales YoY -60.002 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 19.515
mean: 2.797
median: 1.147
CNC: 0.346
low: 0.079
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 19.463
Forward PE/G -0.047
Forward P/S -10.619
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3792.345
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.59
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.944 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 16.144 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.945
CNC: 0.59
median: 0.401
mean: 0.392
low: 0.029
 Receivables Turnover 2.225
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.409 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -7.683 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.084
mean: 3.804
median: 3.655
CNC: 2.225
low: 0.147
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 41.007
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 10.725
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 99.303
median: 15.133
mean: 10.834
CNC: 10.725
low: -55.902
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 14.478
 CapEx To Revenue -0.004
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.435
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 38.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 38.5 B
 Invested Capital 38.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 5.3 B
 Net Working Capital 3.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.473
 Current Ratio 1.084
Current Ratio QoQ -1.227 %
Current Ratio YoY -1.258 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.196
CNC: 1.084
mean: 1.066
median: 0.88
low: 0.004
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -2.842
 Cost Of Debt 0.961 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -38.259
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 7375.93 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -713.816 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 30.491
mean: 6.456
median: 5.31
low: -11.697
CNC: -38.259
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.111
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 30.282
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -4.986 %
 Revenue Growth 1.945 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -57.272 %
Revenue Growth YoY -64.572 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 14.194 %
median: 3.999 %
mean: 3.327 %
CNC: 1.945 %
low: -8.694 %
 Earnings Growth -412.5 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 250.807 %
Earnings Growth YoY 1147.807 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 131.373 %
median: 1.754 %
mean: -7.05 %
low: -66.667 %
CNC: -412.5 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 6.543 %
Gross Margin QoQ 8.22 %
Gross Margin YoY -31.858 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.429 %
mean: 29.098 %
median: 14.673 %
CNC: 6.543 %
low: -4.713 %
 EBIT Margin -13.089 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 7253.371 %
EBIT Margin YoY -601.494 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 19.623 %
mean: 5.327 %
median: 3.465 %
CNC: -13.089 %
low: -14.17 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -0.425 %
Return On Sales QoQ -48.609 %
Return On Sales YoY -116.284 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 16.487 %
mean: 7.381 %
median: 2.448 %
CNC: -0.425 %
low: -12.809 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.1 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 6.654 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -25.919 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -314.024 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 14.006 %
CNC: 6.654 %
median: 2.383 %
mean: 2.181 %
low: -12.138 %
 Free Cash Growth -27.394 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -286.468 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -82.536 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 316.092 %
CNC: -27.394 %
median: -66.858 %
mean: -110.726 %
low: -300.903 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.173
 Cash Flow Margin -9.088 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.681
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -7.871 %
Return On Assets QoQ 2595.548 %
Return On Assets YoY -1013.109 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.141 %
median: 1.207 %
mean: 0.985 %
CNC: -7.871 %
low: -14.166 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -15.689 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.317
Return On Equity QoQ 3329.577 %
Return On Equity YoY -1312.371 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.237
median: 0.019
mean: -0.051
low: -0.308
CNC: -0.317
 DuPont ROE -27.428 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -16.774 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 10863.399 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 246.213 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.692 %
median: 2.996 %
mean: 2.399 %
low: -1.536 %
CNC: -16.774 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation with a bias toward near-term weakness until momentum indicators stabilize. Directional indicators and a declining MACD favor downside or range-bound action near short-term averages; however, the negative MRO implies upside potential from mean reversion if momentum shifts. Swing traders should monitor for a MACD cross above its signal line and a reversal in DI+ alongside price reclaiming the 12-day EMA to signal a durable near-term momentum change.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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