Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) Accelerates Cloud Buildout, Near-Term Volatility Likely

AI-driven contract wins and an aggressive cloud-capex program push revenue and margin strength, while elevated leverage and stretched multiples raise near-term cash-flow and valuation risk.

Recent News

On December 2025 and into January 2026 media outlets reported a leadership transition at Oracle that elevated Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia to co-CEO roles while Safra Catz moved to executive vice chair. In recent weeks the Financial Times highlighted investor concern after Oracle disclosed a large increase in data-center spending tied to AI infrastructure, noting meaningful debt growth and market volatility. On January 21, 2026 a major financial outlet published a bullish analyst case projecting substantial long-term revenue upside from Oracle’s AI partnerships and BYOC strategy.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 18.13 indicates no clear market trend; directional indicators show DI+ peak-and-reversal and DI- dip-and-reversal, a configuration that produces bearish directional pressure despite the lack of a strong trend.

MACD sits negative at -4.99 with a peak-and-reversal profile, signaling bearish momentum even as the MACD value currently trades slightly above its signal line (-5.47); momentum reads favor further downside pressure over the near term.

MRO at 20.94 (peak-and-reversal) places price above the WMDST target and signals a higher probability of a price contraction toward fundamental value levels in the coming weeks.

RSI at 40.64 with a peak-and-reversal pattern reflects recent weakening from higher levels and sits below neutral, reinforcing a bias toward further short-term weakness rather than strength.

Price closed at $179.92 well below the 20-day average ($194.04), 50-day average ($204.56) and 200-day average ($217.55); the 12-day EMA peaked and reversed at $192.62, and the close sits below the lower 1x Bollinger band ($187.36) and slightly below the lower 2x band ($180.67). Elevated 42-day beta (2.19) and intraday volume above the 10- and 200-day averages indicate amplified short-term volatility and active distribution relative to recent norms.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Margins and profitability: EBIT of $7.399B produces an EBIT margin of 46.08%, well above the industry peer high of 37.62% and supporting the company’s ability to monetize cloud contracts at high incremental margins. Operating margin stands at 32.12%, and return on equity registers at 20.48%.

Earnings and cash flow: Reported EPS actual of $2.26 exceeded the estimate of $1.64 by $0.62, a surprise of 37.81%. Net income reached $6.135B, while operating cash flow measured $2.066B. Free cash flow registered negative $9.967B, producing a free-cash-flow yield of -1.44% and a free-cash-flow growth rate that shows recent quarter weakness; WMDST treats the negative free cash flow as a material near-term liquidity consideration given the capex program.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue reached $16.058B with YoY revenue growth of 34.21% and QoQ revenue change showing a -223.46% figure as reported; WMDST notes strong annual growth driven by cloud infrastructure and SaaS expansion, while sequential dynamics reflect timing and recognition effects tied to large contracts.

Capital allocation and leverage: Capital expenditures totaled -$12.033B over the period, and the company carries total debt of $124.386B with net debt of $88.834B. Debt-to-equity stands near 4.15x and debt-to-EBITDA at 13.08x; interest coverage remains positive at 7.0x but rising leverage and increased capex present elevated balance-sheet risk relative to historical levels.

Valuation metrics: Trailing P/E registers at 106.49 and forward P/E at 124.04, while price-to-book measures 23.09 and price-to-sales sits at 43.06. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given those stretched multiples relative to cash-flow generation and the current negative free cash flow.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-11-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-12-10
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-03-11
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 10.4 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.1 B
 Capital Expenditures -12.03 B
 Change In Working Capital -4.76 B
 Dividends Paid -1.44 B
 Cash Flow Delta 8.8 B
 End Period Cash Flow 19.2 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 16.1 B
 Forward Revenue 3.7 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 5.4 B
 Depreciation 1.7 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 2.1 B
 Research and Development 2.6 B
 Total Operating Expenses 10.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 10.7 B
 EBITDA 9.5 B
 EBIT 7.4 B
 Operating Income 5.2 B
 Interest Income 192.0 M
 Interest Expense 1.1 B
 Net Interest Income -865.00 M
 Income Before Tax 6.3 B
 Tax Provision 207.0 M
 Tax Rate 3.264 %
 Net Income 6.1 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 6.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.64
 EPS Actual 2.26
 EPS Difference 0.62
 EPS Surprise 37.805 %
 Forward EPS 1.99
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 205.0 B
 Intangible Assets 66.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -36.02 B
 Total Current Assets 34.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 19.8 B
 Cash 19.2 B
 Net Receivables 9.4 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 25.2 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 10.1 B
 Short-Term Debt 8.1 B
 Total Current Liabilities 37.8 B
 Net Debt 88.8 B
 Total Debt 124.4 B
 Total Liabilities 174.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 30.0 B
 Retained Earnings -9.36 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 10.42
 Shares Outstanding 2.873 B
 Revenue Per-Share 5.59
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 691.4 B
 Enterprise Value 796.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 83.716
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -30.137 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -0.311 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 2195.465
mean: 443.375
ORCL: 83.716
median: 82.45
low: -363.609
 EV/R 49.574
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 6.844
 Asset To Liability 1.175
 Debt To Capital 0.806
 Debt To Assets 0.607
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.879 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1003.893 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.687
ORCL: 0.607
mean: 0.162
median: 0.117
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 4.153
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.836 %
Debt To Equity YoY 599.426 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA ORCL: 4.153
high: 1.275
mean: 0.406
median: 0.204
low: -0.721
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 23.086
Price To Book QoQ -12.746 %
Price To Book YoY -34.763 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 39.175
ORCL: 23.086
mean: 15.151
median: 12.057
low: -16.001
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 106.49
Price To Earnings QoQ -30.409 %
Price To Earnings YoY -10.022 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 697.934
mean: 226.542
median: 156.368
ORCL: 106.49
low: -66.95
 PE/G Ratio 1.982
 Price To Sales (P/S) 43.059
Price To Sales QoQ 0.568 %
Price To Sales YoY 24.448 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 101.971
mean: 45.167
ORCL: 43.059
median: 37.405
low: 6.148
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 124.037
Forward PE/G 2.308
Forward P/S 184.449
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 9.242
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.083
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.641 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -13.272 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.213
mean: 0.134
median: 0.124
ORCL: 0.083
low: 0.047
 Receivables Turnover 1.757
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.394 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 1.193 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.828
mean: 1.81
ORCL: 1.757
median: 1.655
low: 0.601
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 51.947
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 92.114
mean: 44.851
median: 33.146
low: 21.685
ORCL: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -4.683
 CapEx To Revenue -0.749
 CapEx To Depreciation -7.062
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 129.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 138.0 B
 Invested Capital 138.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -36.02 B
 Net Working Capital -3.43 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.523
 Current Ratio 0.909
Current Ratio QoQ 47.179 %
Current Ratio YoY 12.394 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.255
mean: 1.465
median: 0.996
ORCL: 0.909
low: 0.491
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 13.081
 Cost Of Debt 0.753 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 7.0
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 48.529 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 42.434 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 58.966
median: 17.486
mean: 12.772
ORCL: 7.0
low: -9.8
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.254
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 171.355
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 4.275
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.234
 Dividend Rate 0.50
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 13.597 %
 Revenue Growth 7.584 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -223.458 %
Revenue Growth YoY 34.206 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.653 %
ORCL: 7.584 %
median: 3.44 %
mean: 2.657 %
low: -6.711 %
 Earnings Growth 53.741 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -497.228 %
Earnings Growth YoY 833.814 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA ORCL: 53.741 %
high: 40.909 %
median: 3.578 %
mean: 2.079 %
low: -91.667 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 66.534 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.107 %
Gross Margin YoY -6.216 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 91.096 %
mean: 77.699 %
median: 76.558 %
ORCL: 66.534 %
low: 61.57 %
 EBIT Margin 46.077 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 58.101 %
EBIT Margin YoY 52.21 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA ORCL: 46.077 %
high: 37.617 %
median: 23.862 %
mean: 15.342 %
low: -23.567 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 32.121 %
Return On Sales QoQ 2.182 %
Return On Sales YoY 6.108 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 36.503 %
ORCL: 32.121 %
median: 12.49 %
mean: 11.409 %
low: -27.164 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -9.97 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.441 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 2428.07 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 162.956 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.753 %
mean: 0.94 %
median: 0.935 %
ORCL: -1.441 %
low: -1.998 %
 Free Cash Growth 2653.315 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -3128.38 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -1845.258 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA ORCL: 2653.315 %
high: 259.835 %
mean: 87.196 %
median: 71.291 %
low: -132.549 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.625
 Cash Flow Margin 59.69 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.562
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.183 %
Return On Assets QoQ 89.69 %
Return On Assets YoY 47.84 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.246 %
ORCL: 3.183 %
mean: 1.625 %
median: 1.418 %
low: -10.846 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.426 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.205
Return On Equity QoQ 69.03 %
Return On Equity YoY -10.644 %
Return On Equity IPRWA ORCL: 0.205
high: 0.16
median: 0.035
mean: 0.03
low: -0.138
 DuPont ROE 22.677 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.186 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 61.156 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -104.13 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.711 %
ORCL: 5.186 %
median: 2.968 %
mean: 2.938 %
low: -5.12 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated volatility over the next six weeks as market participants reprice risk around capital spending, contract backlog realization, and earnings cadence. Technical indicators currently favor downside pressure: directional indicators and MACD suggest weakening momentum, MRO places price above WMDST targets, and price sits below key moving averages. Fundamental drivers that could alter the short-term path include quarterly cash-flow trajectory, disclosures on large cloud-contract recognition, and any updates to capex pacing or financing. Traders should monitor directional index behavior, MACD momentum, the 20-day average at roughly $194, and near-term free-cash-flow announcements for signs of renewed buying conviction or further distribution. WMDST’s valuation assessment remains over-valued until free cash flow turns positive on a sustainable basis or multiples compress to reflect current cash generation.

About Oracle Corporation

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) develops comprehensive solutions for enterprise information technology environments globally. The company’s offerings include Oracle Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS), which encompasses a wide range of applications such as Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management, and Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management. Additionally, Oracle delivers cloud-based industry solutions tailored to various sectors, alongside application licenses and support services. Oracle’s infrastructure technologies feature the Oracle Database, MySQL Database, and Java programming language. The company also provides middleware solutions, cloud-based compute, storage, networking capabilities, and innovative technologies like the Oracle Autonomous Database and MySQL HeatWave. Oracle’s portfolio extends to Internet-of-Things (IoT), digital assistants, and blockchain technologies. In the hardware domain, Oracle produces engineered systems, enterprise servers, and storage solutions, complemented by industry-specific hardware and virtualization software. The company also offers operating systems, management software, and hardware support services. Oracle markets its diverse range of cloud, license, hardware, and service offerings directly to businesses across various industries, government bodies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Founded in 1977, Oracle is headquartered in Austin, Texas.



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