Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) Accelerates Buybacks And Prepares For Stronger Margins

Howmet exhibits operational strength and active capital deployment while valuation multiples sit at premium levels. Near-term technical momentum supports further upside, though regression-based indicators warn of a potential pullback from stretched levels.

Recent News

On October 30, 2025 the company reported record third‑quarter 2025 revenue of $2.09 billion and operating income margin near 25.9%. On November 3, 2025 Howmet priced a $500 million note offering to refinance higher‑coupon 2027 debt. On December 22, 2025 Howmet announced acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing from Stanley Black & Decker for about $1.8 billion. On January 15, 2026 the company scheduled a webcast to release fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 20.41 indicates an emerging trend strength rather than a dominant directional regime; that emerging strength frames valuation-driven upside potential.

DI+ at 25.95 shows a clear dip‑and‑reversal, a bullish directional signal; DI‑ at 16.85 is decreasing, which reinforces the bullish directional split and favors near‑term upward bias.

MACD sits at 5.28 and trends increasing while the MACD signal equals 4.00; MACD above its signal line constitutes a bullish momentum confirmation that supports the short‑term price bias.

MRO at 28.41 with a dip‑and‑reversal trend indicates the price sits above the regression target and carries potential for a mean reversion; the positive MRO value implies elevated downside risk if momentum weakens.

RSI 59.42 and rising reflects constructive buying momentum without extreme overbought readings, supporting additional upside before an overextension signal appears.

Price sits above the 12‑ and 26‑day EMAs (12‑day EMA $217.12 increasing; 26‑day EMA $211.35) and above the 20‑day average $215.00 and 50‑day average $204.86, signaling near‑term trend alignment with higher averages; the supertrend lower at $211.93 and the 20‑day average provide proximate technical support.

Bollinger context shows price trading above the 1× upper band ($222.00) but below the 2× upper band ($229.00), which implies the move extended beyond typical short‑term volatility but not yet at extreme two‑sigma levels.

Volume of 1.66 million compares below the 10‑, 50‑ and 200‑day averages, suggesting the recent advance shows lighter participation and therefore higher sensitivity to shifts in momentum or news flow.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $2,053,000,000 with gross profit $619,000,000 and operating income $514,000,000. EBIT reached $507,000,000 and net income $407,000,000; EPS actual came in at $0.95 versus an estimate of $0.91, an EPS surprise of about 4.40%.

EBIT margin 24.70% registers above the industry peer mean of 11.75% and well above the industry peer median of 11.68%, supporting the valuation premium by demonstrating superior operating profitability relative to peers.

Operating margin 25.04% and return on equity 8.16% exceed the industry peer mean for operating margin and the industry peer mean ROE of 5.04%, reinforcing margin strength and capital returns on current capital base.

Revenue growth shows strong year‑over‑year expansion: YoY revenue growth 86.19% and quarter‑over‑quarter growth 111.94% reflect rapid top‑line acceleration in the most recent periods.

Cash flow metrics present mixed signals. Free cash flow $344,000,000 and a free cash flow yield of 0.49% sit above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 0.37%; operating cash flow $446,000,000 and cash conversion ratio near 0.98 indicate healthy conversion of earnings into cash.

Leverage remains manageable. Total debt $3,258,000,000 with net debt $2,713,000,000 produces a debt/EBITDA of 5.66 and an interest coverage ratio of 13.34, the latter well above the industry peer mean of 5.19 and indicating ample coverage of interest expense despite elevated gross leverage.

Market multiples carry a substantial premium. Trailing P/E near 188.38 and P/B around 14.06 sit above industry peer means and highs; forward PE and PEG metrics also run materially higher than the industry peer mean and median. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given these stretched multiples relative to cash‑flow yields, even after accounting for superior margins and robust recent revenue growth.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 537.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 446.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -102.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -65.00 M
 Dividends Paid -41.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 9.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 546.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.1 B
 Forward Revenue 403.4 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.4 B
 Depreciation 69.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 69.0 M
 Research and Development 9.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 1.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 619.0 M
 EBITDA 576.0 M
 EBIT 507.0 M
 Operating Income 514.0 M
 Interest Income 4.0 M
 Interest Expense 38.0 M
 Net Interest Income -34.00 M
 Income Before Tax 469.0 M
 Tax Provision 62.0 M
 Tax Rate 13.22 %
 Net Income 407.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 407.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.91
 EPS Actual 0.95
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 4.396 %
 Forward EPS 0.79
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.0 B
 Intangible Assets 4.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 510.0 M
 Total Current Assets 3.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 545.0 M
 Cash 545.0 M
 Net Receivables 888.0 M
 Inventory 2.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 263.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.0 B
 Short-Term Debt 5.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.6 B
 Net Debt 2.7 B
 Total Debt 3.3 B
 Total Liabilities 6.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 5.0 B
 Retained Earnings 3.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 12.35
 Shares Outstanding 403.674 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.09
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 70.1 B
 Enterprise Value 72.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 126.444
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 29.139 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 79.442 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 323.415
HWM: 126.444
mean: 112.509
median: 66.53
low: -67.542
 EV/R 35.476
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.215
 Asset To Liability 1.84
 Debt To Capital 0.395
 Debt To Assets 0.295
Debt To Assets QoQ -8.78 %
Debt To Assets YoY 302.772 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.871
mean: 0.301
HWM: 0.295
median: 0.293
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.653
Debt To Equity QoQ -11.149 %
Debt To Equity YoY 252.716 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.727
median: 0.697
HWM: 0.653
mean: 0.626
low: -0.606
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 14.06
Price To Book QoQ 29.839 %
Price To Book YoY 86.556 %
Price To Book IPRWA HWM: 14.06
high: 12.957
mean: 5.41
median: 3.467
low: -3.173
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 188.375
Price To Earnings QoQ 27.735 %
Price To Earnings YoY 61.782 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 273.833
HWM: 188.375
median: 82.296
mean: 56.585
low: -168.63
 PE/G Ratio 32.4
 Price To Sales (P/S) 34.154
Price To Sales QoQ 29.301 %
Price To Sales YoY 101.79 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 84.443
HWM: 34.154
mean: 12.673
median: 9.287
low: 1.02
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 198.933
Forward PE/G 34.216
Forward P/S 173.808
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 0.794
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.188
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.163 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.553 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.392
HWM: 0.188
mean: 0.167
median: 0.146
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 2.312
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.129 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.678 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.068
mean: 3.619
median: 2.764
HWM: 2.312
low: 0.002
 Inventory Turnover 0.742
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.597 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 4.648 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.2
mean: 1.579
median: 1.0
HWM: 0.742
low: 0.051
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 39.469
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 101.477
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 0.604 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 4.387 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 425.979
mean: 132.948
HWM: 101.477
median: 73.581
low: -296.124
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.98
 CapEx To Revenue -0.05
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.478
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 8.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 8.2 B
 Invested Capital 8.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 510.0 M
 Net Working Capital 2.1 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.341
 Current Ratio 2.309
Current Ratio QoQ 0.561 %
Current Ratio YoY 51.097 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.966
HWM: 2.309
mean: 1.507
median: 1.231
low: 0.225
 Quick Ratio 1.081
Quick Ratio QoQ 1.318 %
Quick Ratio YoY 45.277 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.407
HWM: 1.081
mean: 0.992
median: 0.833
low: 0.28
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 5.656
 Cost Of Debt 0.978 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 13.342
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 7.287 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 70.695 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 34.5
HWM: 13.342
median: 5.25
mean: 5.194
low: -78.651
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.282
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 67.783
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 9.927
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.101
 Dividend Rate 0.10
 Dividend Yield 0.001
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.544 %
 Revenue Growth 5.716 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 111.939 %
Revenue Growth YoY 86.189 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 47.672 %
mean: 7.501 %
median: 6.279 %
HWM: 5.716 %
low: -58.801 %
 Earnings Growth 5.814 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -64.147 %
Earnings Growth YoY -66.86 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 153.061 %
mean: 38.692 %
median: 6.122 %
HWM: 5.814 %
low: -91.045 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 30.151 %
Gross Margin QoQ -10.195 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.413 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 98.953 %
HWM: 30.151 %
mean: 24.156 %
median: 20.277 %
low: -30.868 %
 EBIT Margin 24.696 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -1.113 %
EBIT Margin YoY 21.225 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 46.133 %
HWM: 24.696 %
mean: 11.752 %
median: 11.677 %
low: -171.354 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 25.037 %
Return On Sales QoQ 0.252 %
Return On Sales YoY 22.899 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 46.714 %
HWM: 25.037 %
mean: 10.797 %
median: 9.944 %
low: -147.434 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 344.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.491 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 88.123 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -54.326 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.303 %
HWM: 0.491 %
mean: 0.368 %
median: 0.126 %
low: -11.984 %
 Free Cash Growth 156.716 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -342.782 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -39.725 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 522.826 %
HWM: 156.716 %
mean: -79.063 %
median: -91.266 %
low: -646.535 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.845
 Cash Flow Margin 21.968 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.108
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.731 %
Return On Assets QoQ 15.475 %
Return On Assets YoY 47.88 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.423 %
HWM: 3.731 %
median: 1.072 %
mean: 0.928 %
low: -22.89 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.367 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.082
Return On Equity QoQ 12.38 %
Return On Equity YoY 29.54 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.185
HWM: 0.082
mean: 0.05
median: 0.043
low: -0.361
 DuPont ROE 8.371 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.336 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 14.975 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -99.475 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.128 %
HWM: 5.336 %
median: 2.101 %
mean: 2.063 %
low: -18.67 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum favors a bullish bias over the next six weeks: directional indicators and a bullish MACD crossover align with price trading above short‑ and medium‑term EMAs, and the RSI remains below overbought levels. However, the positive MRO cautions that the stock trades above its regression target and therefore carries elevated pullback risk, particularly on volume weakness. Key levels to monitor for support include the 20‑day average near $215 and the supertrend lower near $212; a sustained move above the recent lofted range and a pickup in volume would reinforce upside continuation. Conversely, a breakdown below those support references would increase the likelihood of mean reversion toward longer averages.

About Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) develops advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company operates globally, with a presence in the United States, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Howmet Aerospace structures its business into four main segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. In the Engine Products segment, Howmet Aerospace creates airfoils and seamless rolled rings that are crucial for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines. The Fastening Systems division manufactures durable fasteners for aerospace applications, as well as tools and components for commercial and industrial uses. The Engineered Structures segment focuses on producing titanium ingots, aluminum and nickel forgings, and precision-machined components for aerospace and defense sectors. The Forged Wheels segment delivers high-quality forged aluminum wheels designed for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation. Founded in 1888, Howmet Aerospace leverages its long-standing expertise and cutting-edge technology to meet the dynamic needs of its global clients, emphasizing excellence, innovation, and sustainability in its operations.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.