MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) Poised For Near-Term Pullback As Valuation Exceeds Fundamentals

Recent operational momentum juxtaposes with stretched valuation, suggesting limited upside and an elevated risk of mean reversion in the coming weeks.

Recent News

On October 23, 2025 MGIC’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share and named Martin P. Klein and Daniela A. O’Leary‑Gill to its board of directors. On October 27, 2025 the company announced it became the first mortgage insurer to directly manage updates in ICE Mortgage Technology’s Encompass Partner Connect platform, enabling faster product and integration updates for lender customers.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show competing forces: DI+ experienced a dip-and-reversal, indicating resurgent bullish pressure, while DI− has been increasing, signaling rising bearish pressure; ADX at 21.34 signals an emerging trend rather than an established one, so directional commitments remain tentative.

MACD registered a dip-and-reversal and therefore displays increasing momentum, but the MACD value (0.77) sits below the signal line (0.86), so bullish momentum has not yet confirmed via a signal-line crossover.

MRO stands at 35.14 (positive), which implies the market price sits above the model target and therefore carries technical downside potential; that technical over-extension reinforces the valuation concern noted below.

RSI at 60.62 after a dip-and-reversal indicates improving momentum without an overbought condition; that supports short-term upside but leaves room for a pullback if momentum stalls.

Price trades above short-, medium- and long-term averages (price close $27.14 vs 12‑day EMA $26.41 increasing, 20‑day avg $26.42, 50‑day avg $24.01 and 200‑day avg $19.09), and the close sits near the upper Bollinger band, which often precedes consolidation when combined with a positive MRO.

Volume at 34,315 slightly exceeds the 10‑day average but remains below the 200‑day average, indicating limited follow‑through liquidity for large directional moves; short‑term volatility metrics remain muted (42‑day volatility 3%).

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $161,656,000 with YoY revenue growth of 33.93% and QoQ growth of 125.93%, showing strong top‑line momentum. Net income stands at $9,863,000 and operating income (EBIT) $17,115,000, producing an EBIT margin of 10.59%, up 2.63% QoQ and 0.43% YoY.

Margins remain low versus peers: EBIT margin at 10.59% sits below the industry peer mean of 49.84% and below the industry peer median of 65.08%, indicating the company operates with markedly slimmer operating profitability than the peer set despite revenue growth.

Earnings per share came in at $0.25 versus an estimate of $0.27, an EPS surprise of −7.41%. Forward EPS equals $0.282 and forward P/E near 76.23, while the reported trailing P/E reads 82.80, both above the industry peer mean P/E of 39.25 and industry peer median of 34.47.

Balance sheet and returns show contrasts: return on equity equals 3.57%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 3.15%; return on assets equals 1.79%, above the industry peer mean of 0.34%. Debt to assets measures 17.13%, above the industry peer mean of 8.90%, while interest coverage remains comfortable at about 10.08x.

Capital allocation metrics display a mixed picture: price‑to‑book at 3.68 sits above the industry peer mean of 1.12, price‑to‑sales at 6.29 sits below the industry peer mean of 11.12, and free cash flow yield equals 1.80%, below the industry peer mean of 2.64%.

Operational liquidity: cash and short‑term investments $103,305,000 with a cash ratio of 53.59% and a current ratio near 1.48, while the cash conversion cycle lengthened to 63.44 days, longer than the industry peer mean of 41.49 days.

WMDST values the stock as over‑valued. The valuation premium reflects the market pricing of strong revenue growth and capital returns, but wide gaps between price multiples and peer means—paired with below‑peer operating margins and a positive MRO—suggest limited fundamental support for current market multiples.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-18
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-17
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 90.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 19.4 M
 Capital Expenditures -1.20 M
 Change In Working Capital 1.3 M
 Dividends Paid -3.00 K
 Cash Flow Delta 13.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 103.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 161.7 M
 Forward Revenue 56.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 117.4 M
 Depreciation 4.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 4.9 M
 Research and Development 3.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses 144.5 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 44.2 M
 EBITDA 22.0 M
 EBIT 17.1 M
 Operating Income 17.1 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 1.7 M
 Net Interest Income -1.70 M
 Income Before Tax 15.4 M
 Tax Provision 3.5 M
 Tax Rate 22.469 %
 Net Income 9.9 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 11.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.27
 EPS Actual 0.25
 EPS Difference -0.02
 EPS Surprise -7.407 %
 Forward EPS 0.28
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 559.8 M
 Intangible Assets 225.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 50.3 M
 Total Current Assets 285.2 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 103.3 M
 Cash 103.3 M
 Net Receivables 160.5 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 34.6 M
 Short-Term Debt 34.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities 192.8 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 95.9 M
 Total Liabilities 259.0 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 276.0 M
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 5.62
 Shares Outstanding 49.099 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.29
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.0 B
 Enterprise Value 1.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 45.803
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 3.093 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 74.722 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 6.242
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.028
 Asset To Liability 2.162
 Debt To Capital 0.258
 Debt To Assets 0.171
Debt To Assets QoQ -5.302 %
Debt To Assets YoY 233.684 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.337
MGIC: 0.171
mean: 0.089
median: 0.084
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 0.347
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.133 %
Debt To Equity YoY 259.251 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.306
mean: 0.73
MGIC: 0.347
median: 0.287
low: 0.014
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.682
Price To Book QoQ 9.096 %
Price To Book YoY 69.85 %
Price To Book IPRWA MGIC: 3.682
high: 2.396
mean: 1.118
median: 0.994
low: 0.422
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 82.805
Price To Earnings QoQ 15.754 %
Price To Earnings YoY 61.084 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 103.776
MGIC: 82.805
mean: 39.245
median: 34.473
low: -5.374
 PE/G Ratio -21.53
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.288
Price To Sales QoQ 1.31 %
Price To Sales YoY 48.399 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 26.419
median: 11.167
mean: 11.125
MGIC: 6.288
low: 2.168
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 76.23
Forward PE/G -19.821
Forward P/S 19.812
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.424
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.294
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.118 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 8.122 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA MGIC: 0.294
high: 0.022
mean: 0.013
median: 0.012
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.031
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.018 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -0.466 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.113
median: 2.541
mean: 2.535
MGIC: 1.031
low: 0.133
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 88.471
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 63.438
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -67.612 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 93.2
MGIC: 63.438
mean: 41.486
median: 34.388
low: 15.176
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.749
 CapEx To Revenue -0.007
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.244
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 310.4 M
 Net Invested Capital 345.2 M
 Invested Capital 345.2 M
 Net Tangible Assets 50.3 M
 Net Working Capital 92.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.536
 Current Ratio 1.479
Current Ratio QoQ -7.982 %
Current Ratio YoY -15.781 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 42.318
mean: 2.625
median: 1.628
MGIC: 1.479
low: 1.182
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 4.353
 Cost Of Debt 1.358 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.08
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -53.288 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -8.775 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 27.394
mean: 13.69
MGIC: 10.08
median: 7.759
low: -20.826
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.085
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 25.033
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3287.667
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.0
 Dividend Rate 0.00
 Dividend Yield 0.0
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.352 %
 Revenue Growth 6.604 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 125.932 %
Revenue Growth YoY 33.928 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 20.816 %
MGIC: 6.604 %
median: 3.336 %
mean: 2.044 %
low: -10.179 %
 Earnings Growth -3.846 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -110.439 %
Earnings Growth YoY -7.703 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 61.667 %
median: 5.556 %
mean: 3.886 %
MGIC: -3.846 %
low: -53.247 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 27.346 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.136 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.474 %
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 10.587 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 2.627 %
EBIT Margin YoY 0.427 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 80.119 %
median: 65.075 %
mean: 49.836 %
low: 26.797 %
MGIC: 10.587 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.587 %
Return On Sales QoQ 2.627 %
Return On Sales YoY 0.427 %
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 18.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.795 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 207.89 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 63.927 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 13.954 %
median: 3.151 %
mean: 2.641 %
MGIC: 1.795 %
low: -6.017 %
 Free Cash Growth 232.35 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -484.405 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -589.55 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 410.807 %
MGIC: 232.35 %
mean: 18.607 %
median: -8.909 %
low: -542.365 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.85
 Cash Flow Margin 10.16 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.665
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.791 %
Return On Assets QoQ -4.48 %
Return On Assets YoY 11.868 %
Return On Assets IPRWA MGIC: 1.791 %
high: 0.732 %
mean: 0.343 %
median: 0.291 %
low: -0.372 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.663 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.036
Return On Equity QoQ -1.189 %
Return On Equity YoY 18.429 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.071
MGIC: 0.036
mean: 0.032
median: 0.031
low: -0.037
 DuPont ROE 3.555 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.844 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 10.333 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -124.348 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA MGIC: 3.844 %
high: 3.463 %
median: 3.347 %
mean: 2.829 %
low: 0.77 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators point to short‑term bullishness, yet the technical picture contains warning signs: price sits above key averages and the 12‑day EMA is rising, but MACD has not crossed the signal line and MRO indicates price above target, elevating pullback risk. ADX shows an emerging trend, so directional moves may accelerate if one side gains decisive volume. Given stretched valuation metrics—high P/E and P/B relative to industry peer means—expect limited upside conviction and heightened sensitivity to earnings detail or capital‑allocation headlines. Watch for confirmation of bullish momentum via a MACD crossover or for downside resolution if DI− pressure increases; either outcome should drive the next leg of a swing‑timeframe move.

About MGIC Investment Corporation

MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) provides essential private mortgage insurance solutions, protecting lenders from borrower defaults and strengthening the mortgage finance industry. Headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, MGIC primarily conducts business through its subsidiary, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation. The company delivers a wide array of services, including underwriting, contract underwriting, and pool insurance, all aimed at effectively managing credit risk. MGIC invests in educational initiatives and training programs for mortgage lenders and industry professionals, enhancing their decision-making capabilities and expertise. These programs promote best practices and elevate industry standards, contributing to housing market stability. By implementing strategic risk management, MGIC enhances credit availability, thus expanding homeownership opportunities. The company’s dedication to risk management and professional development underscores its critical role in the mortgage insurance sector, ensuring the stability and reliability of the housing finance market. MGIC supports the broader housing economy by providing essential services that maintain a stable and robust mortgage landscape.



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