PDF Solutions, Inc (NASDAQ:PDFS) Shows Stabilizing Momentum Despite Near-Term Softness

Recent corporate developments and WMDST valuation point to a period of consolidation with measured upside potential; fundamentals show profitability but limited cash conversion, and technicals indicate mixed short-term momentum.

Recent News

On December 2, 2025 the company made its 2025 Analyst Day webcast and presentation available and reaffirmed prior annual revenue growth guidance of 21–23% for the year. The announcement accompanied User Conference activity in Santa Clara and emphasized strategic product positioning for manufacturing analytics and equipment connectivity.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 17.35 signals no strong trend; directional indicators present a mixed picture. DI+ underwent a peak and reversal (bearish signal) while DI- also shows a peak and reversal (bullish signal), leaving directional pressure unresolved and consistent with consolidation around the current price level.

MACD sits at 0.41 with the MACD line below the signal line (0.53) and the MACD trend decreasing, indicating waning bullish momentum. No bullish MACD crossover exists to suggest an immediate acceleration in upside.

MRO at 11.58 reads positive, indicating the market price sits above the model target and implying pressure for mean reversion. The recent MRO peak and reversal strengthens the near-term probability of a pullback toward the model target rather than continued rapid gains.

RSI at 54.95 with a peak-and-reversal trend shows momentum softening from recent highs but not yet in oversold territory; the indicator supports the case for range-bound trading rather than a decisive breakout.

Price sits at $28.53, below the 20-day average ($29.13) and the 12-day EMA (price12dayEMA trend: peak & reversal), but above the 50-day ($27.97) and 200-day ($22.74) averages. Short-term moving averages suggest near-term weakness while medium- and long-term averages remain supportive of the broader uptrend.

Bollinger bands place the 1x lower band at $27.82 and upper band at $30.43; current price trades inside the bands and nearer the lower band, consistent with consolidation and limited intraday volatility. SuperTrend upper resistance sits near $30.54.

Volume (177,539) trails 10-, 50- and 200-day averages, signaling lower trading participation during the recent pullback and reducing conviction behind short-term moves. Short-term volatility measures (42-day beta 2.43; 52-week beta 1.61) remain elevated versus large-cap norms, implying sensitivity to market swings.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue dynamics show overall revenue growth of 10.41%; sequential momentum looks strong with revenue growth QoQ at +25.97% while revenue growth YoY registers -8.63%, indicating recent acceleration after weaker year-over-year comparatives.

Profitability: gross margin sits at 72.27%, up ~1.46 percentage points QoQ and down ~1.14 percentage points YoY; gross margin exceeds the industry peer mean of 52.71% and the peer median of 51.63%. Operating margin registers 8.45% with an improvement of approximately 2.91 percentage points QoQ and roughly 0.85 percentage points YoY. EBIT margin equals 8.27%; EBIT margin improved about 2.26 percentage points QoQ and about 0.81 percentage points YoY but remains below the industry peer mean of 34.52% and below the peer median of 35.72%.

Earnings and cash flow: GAAP net income stands at $1,294,000 and reported EPS of $0.64 beat the estimate of $0.22 by $0.42, a 191% upside to consensus. EBITDA equals $7,940,000 and EBIT equals $4,725,000. Operating cash flow reached $3,287,000 while free cash flow finished negative at -$3,038,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -0.31% and indicating a current gap between accounting earnings and cash conversion.

Balance sheet and leverage: cash and short-term investments total $35,880,000 against total debt of $73,784,000 and net debt of $31,678,000. Current ratio stands at 2.21, mildly above the industry peer mean of 2.14, supporting near-term liquidity. Debt to assets equals 18.16% (slightly above the industry peer mean of 16.40%) and debt to equity equals 27.91% (a touch above the peer mean of 25.21%), both consistent with modest leverage rather than aggressive funding risk. Interest coverage near 3.82x provides a buffer but reflects limited headroom versus higher-coverage peers.

Efficiency and returns: asset turnover runs at 0.143 (below the industry peer mean of 0.1936), receivables turnover at 0.79 lags the peer mean of 1.41, and return on assets and return on equity remain low at 0.33% and 0.49% respectively versus peer means of 5.46% and 12.91%. These metrics point to high margin profiles but restrained asset efficiency and limited capital returns so far.

Valuation context: price closed at $28.53 with analyst price target mean near $30.01 and a WMDST valuation of fair-valued. Reported PE stands near 39.12 and forward PE near 85.91; enterprise value approximates $1,018,483,251. Taken together, valuation metrics reflect a market pricing that embeds growth expectations while earnings and cash conversion indicate mixed operational leverage.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 37.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 3.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.33 M
 Change In Working Capital -9.55 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -1.53 M
 End Period Cash Flow 35.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 57.1 M
 Forward Revenue 116.9 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 15.8 M
 Depreciation 1.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.2 M
 Research and Development 15.4 M
 Total Operating Expenses 52.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 41.3 M
 EBITDA 7.9 M
 EBIT 4.7 M
 Operating Income 4.8 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 1.2 M
 Net Interest Income -1.24 M
 Income Before Tax 3.5 M
 Tax Provision 2.2 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 1.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.22
 EPS Actual 0.64
 EPS Difference 0.42
 EPS Surprise 190.909 %
 Forward EPS 0.27
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 406.4 M
 Intangible Assets 151.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 113.4 M
 Total Current Assets 146.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 35.9 M
 Cash 35.9 M
 Net Receivables 74.9 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 1.9 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 14.7 M
 Short-Term Debt 2.2 M
 Total Current Liabilities 66.1 M
 Net Debt 31.7 M
 Total Debt 73.8 M
 Total Liabilities 142.0 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 264.4 M
 Retained Earnings -94.58 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 6.75
 Shares Outstanding 39.507 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.46
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 980.6 M
 Enterprise Value 1.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 128.272
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -39.525 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -55.851 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 178.043
PDFS: 128.272
mean: 93.938
median: 91.699
low: -238.397
 EV/R 17.832
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.537
 Asset To Liability 2.862
 Debt To Capital 0.218
 Debt To Assets 0.182
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.094 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3171.351 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.464
median: 0.198
PDFS: 0.182
mean: 0.164
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.279
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.939 %
Debt To Equity YoY 3836.248 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.755
PDFS: 0.279
mean: 0.252
median: 0.142
low: -0.024
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.709
Price To Book QoQ 11.893 %
Price To Book YoY -24.628 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 17.585
median: 14.913
mean: 13.813
PDFS: 3.709
low: -3.904
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 39.123
Price To Earnings QoQ -65.896 %
Price To Earnings YoY -67.96 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 286.125
mean: 122.201
median: 115.727
PDFS: 39.123
low: -396.798
 PE/G Ratio 0.165
 Price To Sales (P/S) 17.169
Price To Sales QoQ 4.04 %
Price To Sales YoY -32.664 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 64.674
median: 41.776
mean: 35.535
PDFS: 17.169
low: 1.791
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 85.911
Forward PE/G 0.363
Forward P/S 9.076
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 24.953
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.143
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.139 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.587 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.351
median: 0.198
mean: 0.194
PDFS: 0.143
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 0.792
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.782 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -12.035 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.339
median: 1.451
mean: 1.41
PDFS: 0.792
low: 0.591
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 115.201
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 50.2
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 563.683
median: 276.99
mean: 269.021
PDFS: 50.2
low: 49.763
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.714
 CapEx To Revenue -0.111
 CapEx To Depreciation -5.51
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 329.7 M
 Net Invested Capital 331.9 M
 Invested Capital 331.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 113.4 M
 Net Working Capital 80.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.543
 Current Ratio 2.211
Current Ratio QoQ -6.55 %
Current Ratio YoY -33.302 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.548
PDFS: 2.211
median: 2.207
mean: 2.144
low: 0.914
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 9.293
 Cost Of Debt 1.323 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.817
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 261.024 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 172.154 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 192.143
median: 39.833
mean: 37.678
PDFS: 3.817
low: -164.857
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.105
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 65.002
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.903 %
 Revenue Growth 10.414 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 25.971 %
Revenue Growth YoY -8.625 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 45.385 %
PDFS: 10.414 %
median: 1.101 %
mean: 0.638 %
low: -45.156 %
 Earnings Growth 236.842 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -2586.791 %
Earnings Growth YoY 509.021 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA PDFS: 236.842 %
high: 133.333 %
mean: -3.624 %
median: -6.077 %
low: -200.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 72.266 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.464 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.141 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 89.855 %
PDFS: 72.266 %
mean: 52.705 %
median: 51.627 %
low: 4.626 %
 EBIT Margin 8.273 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 225.965 %
EBIT Margin YoY 81.187 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 43.012 %
median: 35.717 %
mean: 34.522 %
PDFS: 8.273 %
low: -46.404 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 8.451 %
Return On Sales QoQ 291.431 %
Return On Sales YoY 85.085 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 41.661 %
mean: 33.093 %
median: 32.842 %
PDFS: 8.451 %
low: -50.057 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -3.04 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.31 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -80.745 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -178.283 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.193 %
median: 0.795 %
mean: 0.645 %
PDFS: -0.31 %
low: -2.559 %
 Free Cash Growth -77.891 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -97.599 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -61.238 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 137.837 %
mean: -4.723 %
median: -31.87 %
PDFS: -77.891 %
low: -368.087 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -2.348
 Cash Flow Margin 12.119 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 5.349
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.325 %
Return On Assets QoQ 10.922 %
Return On Assets YoY -55.418 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.255 %
mean: 5.461 %
median: 5.244 %
PDFS: 0.325 %
low: -8.379 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.388 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.005
Return On Equity QoQ 9.888 %
Return On Equity YoY -46.674 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.225
mean: 0.129
median: 0.112
PDFS: 0.005
low: -0.18
 DuPont ROE 0.496 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.125 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 252.665 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -203.496 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.936 %
median: 10.871 %
mean: 8.912 %
PDFS: 1.125 %
low: -2.31 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term action likely remains range-bound with a slight downside bias until momentum indicators re-accelerate. Mixed directional signals (ADX below 20, DI+/DI- conflicting), a decreasing MACD beneath its signal line, and a positive MRO above the target support a scenario where prices consolidate and test support near recent moving-average levels rather than extend a strong trend immediately. Low volume during the pullback reduces conviction for sharp moves.

Fundamentals provide a floor: strong gross margins, an improving backlog and reaffirmed revenue guidance support valuation resilience, while negative free cash flow and modest returns on capital keep upside contingent on continued revenue execution and improved cash conversion. Watch for a resumption of DI+ momentum or a MACD crossover above its signal line to indicate a credible re-acceleration; absent those, expect continued range-bound trading while the company executes on product and revenue initiatives.

About PDF Solutions, Inc.

PDF Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:PDFS) develops proprietary software and intellectual property products tailored for integrated circuit design and electrical measurement. The company delivers a suite of tools and methodologies, including Exensio software products, which enhance manufacturing analytics by storing data in a unified environment. This facilitates engineers in identifying and analyzing production yield, performance, and reliability issues. PDF Solutions also provides systems for process control, test operations, and assembly operations, enabling device manufacturers to manage data throughout the product lifecycle. In addition, the company offers Design-For-Inspection (DFI) systems, including on-chip instruments and non-contact e-beam tools, as well as the Characterization Vehicle (CV) system, which comprises test chips and electrical testers. Their Cimetrix software products empower equipment manufacturers with industry-standard interfaces. PDF Solutions extends its offerings through software-as-a-service, software-related services, and characterization services. The company markets its technologies and services through direct sales, service teams, and strategic partnerships to a diverse clientele, including integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies, and electronics manufacturing suppliers. Founded in 1991, PDF Solutions is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.



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