Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ:HNRG) Signals Near-Term Pullback On Weakening Momentum

Short-term momentum trends and valuation metrics point toward downside pressure over the coming weeks while company-level fundamentals show improving margins and a large EPS beat that support longer-term enterprise value upside. The technical picture favors caution for swing horizons.

Recent News

On December 16, 2025 Hallador announced completion of its Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) application and deposits of roughly $13 million to pursue up to 515 MW of natural gas generation adjacent to the Merom site. Prior coverage on November 12, 2025 highlighted an upgrade in Hallador’s stock ratings driven by strong earnings and sales acceleration. Earlier items in 2025 described continuing negotiations tied to a data-center power supply agreement that includes staged payments to Hallador Power.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 18.36 indicates no trend; with directional signals diverging, conviction for a sustained directional move remains limited despite short-term directionality.

DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal pattern while DI‑ displays an increasing trend; both factors present a bearish directional bias and suggest sellers regained control after a prior bullish phase.

MACD registers -0.17 with a decreasing trend and sits below its 0.02 signal line; that combination indicates bearish momentum and the absence of a bullish MACD crossover.

MRO at 12.6 (positive) signals price sitting above the model target, implying potential downward pressure on price toward the valuation benchmark embedded in the oscillator.

RSI at 51.61 and decreasing signals fading short-term momentum from neutral territory, which aligns with the DI and MACD bearish bias for the next few weeks.

Price sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages (20.41 and 20.48) while remaining above the 200-day average (17.13); the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal, reinforcing short-term weakness against longer-term support. SuperTrend upper boundary near 21.06 and the 20-day average create a resistance band above current price.

Bollinger bands place the close inside the 1x standard-deviation band (lower 18.59 / upper 22.24), indicating price remains range-bound but biased lower given other momentum indicators. Volume recently exceeded short- and medium-term averages, indicating heightened participation during the latest directional shift. A high 42-day beta (2.99) increases sensitivity to market moves and elevates swing risk.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $146,846,000 with YoY revenue growth of 174.89% and a QoQ change of -4.38%. Gross profit reached $73,238,000, producing a gross margin of 49.87% and an operating margin of 18.20%.

EBIT posted $28,232,000 and EBITDA $37,374,000, with an EBIT margin of 19.23%. That EBIT margin sits slightly below the industry peer mean of 22.80% and near the industry peer median of 19.54%, reflecting margin performance comparable to typical peers while trailing the sector mean.

Net income from continuing operations equaled $23,884,000. Reported EPS came in at $0.55 versus an estimate of $0.06, producing a $0.49 beat and an EPS surprise of roughly +816.7%.

Return on equity measured 16.34% and return on assets 5.83%, both above the industry peer mean values provided, indicating efficient capital returns relative to peers. Operating cash flow reached $23,195,000 and free cash flow totaled $3,655,000, yielding a free-cash-flow yield near 0.44% and a cash-flow-to-earnings ratio around 97%.

Liquidity metrics show a current ratio of 0.66 and quick ratio of 0.31, reflecting constrained short-term liquidity versus typical coverage levels. Total debt approximates $53,233,000 with debt-to-EBITDA about 1.42x and debt-to-equity roughly 36.41%, levels compatible with the company’s interest coverage ratio near 6.49x.

Valuation multiples present mixed signals: a trailing P/E around 34.8 sits below the industry peer mean provided, while price-to-book at 5.63 sits above the industry peer mean of 1.69; forward P/E near 256 shows a stretched forward valuation relative to expectations. The current enterprise multiple stands near 23.09. The current valuation as determined by WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting the premium in book and forward multiples against measured free-cash-flow yield and short-term liquidity constraints.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-10
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-09
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 32.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 23.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -19.54 M
 Change In Working Capital 5.4 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 3.1 M
 End Period Cash Flow 35.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 146.8 M
 Forward Revenue 10.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 73.6 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 120.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 73.2 M
 EBITDA 37.4 M
 EBIT 28.2 M
 Operating Income 26.7 M
 Interest Income -579.00 K
 Interest Expense 4.3 M
 Net Interest Income -4.93 M
 Income Before Tax 23.9 M
 Tax Provision
 Tax Rate
 Net Income 23.9 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 23.9 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.06
 EPS Actual 0.55
 EPS Difference 0.49
 EPS Surprise 816.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.16
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 409.5 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 146.2 M
 Total Current Assets 136.5 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 12.7 M
 Cash 12.7 M
 Net Receivables 24.8 M
 Inventory 72.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 4.2 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 23.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 207.3 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 53.2 M
 Total Liabilities 263.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 146.2 M
 Retained Earnings -43.33 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.40
 Shares Outstanding 42.978 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.42
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 822.5 M
 Enterprise Value 863.0 M
 Enterprise Multiple 23.092
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -47.503 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 2.023 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 117.351
mean: 33.379
median: 31.748
HNRG: 23.092
low: -53.099
 EV/R 5.877
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.801
 Asset To Liability 1.555
 Debt To Capital 0.267
 Debt To Assets 0.13
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.931 %
Debt To Assets YoY 148.395 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.103
median: 0.478
mean: 0.378
HNRG: 0.13
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.364
Debt To Equity QoQ -19.738 %
Debt To Equity YoY 282.58 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.437
median: 1.332
mean: 1.076
HNRG: 0.364
low: -1.16
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 5.626
Price To Book QoQ -2.564 %
Price To Book YoY 374.322 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.075
HNRG: 5.626
median: 1.772
mean: 1.694
low: -1.391
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 34.794
Price To Earnings QoQ -59.448 %
Price To Earnings YoY -84.321 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 234.317
mean: 73.757
median: 59.659
HNRG: 34.794
low: -68.228
 PE/G Ratio 0.184
 Price To Sales (P/S) 5.601
Price To Sales QoQ -18.297 %
Price To Sales YoY 55.59 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 92.108
mean: 9.009
median: 7.065
HNRG: 5.601
low: 0.045
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 256.285
Forward PE/G 1.353
Forward P/S 184.447
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.384
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.359
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 35.166 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 100.554 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA HNRG: 0.359
high: 0.323
median: 0.102
mean: 0.099
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 6.751
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.762 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -0.368 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.807
HNRG: 6.751
mean: 2.64
median: 2.276
low: 1.077
 Inventory Turnover 0.93
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 63.837 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 33.717 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 19.661
mean: 6.758
median: 5.958
HNRG: 0.93
low: 0.169
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 13.517
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 115.869
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 6.133 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 13.307 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA HNRG: 115.869
high: 94.279
mean: -5.294
median: -5.879
low: -100.341
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -2.074
 CapEx To Revenue -0.133
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 146.2 M
 Net Invested Capital 146.2 M
 Invested Capital 146.2 M
 Net Tangible Assets 146.2 M
 Net Working Capital -70.80 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.061
 Current Ratio 0.659
Current Ratio QoQ -1.481 %
Current Ratio YoY 13.235 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 10.921
mean: 1.225
median: 0.904
HNRG: 0.659
low: 0.045
 Quick Ratio 0.311
Quick Ratio QoQ 21.633 %
Quick Ratio YoY 83.819 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.866
mean: 1.125
median: 0.752
HNRG: 0.311
low: 0.031
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.424
 Cost Of Debt 7.786 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.493
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 85.348 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 262.263 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 62.137
mean: 7.22
HNRG: 6.493
median: 3.677
low: -45.403
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.112
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 54.045
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.013 %
 Revenue Growth 42.723 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -437.785 %
Revenue Growth YoY 174.887 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA HNRG: 42.723 %
high: 40.741 %
mean: 2.646 %
median: -0.814 %
low: -41.594 %
 Earnings Growth 189.474 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -1189.495 %
Earnings Growth YoY -265.025 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA HNRG: 189.474 %
high: 155.0 %
mean: -2.406 %
median: -12.5 %
low: -178.947 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 49.874 %
Gross Margin QoQ -9.496 %
Gross Margin YoY -5.432 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 81.109 %
HNRG: 49.874 %
mean: 35.738 %
median: 32.475 %
low: -14.902 %
 EBIT Margin 19.226 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 71.37 %
EBIT Margin YoY 399.896 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 96.372 %
mean: 22.801 %
median: 19.539 %
HNRG: 19.226 %
low: -72.549 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.199 %
Return On Sales QoQ 58.486 %
Return On Sales YoY 373.193 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 96.372 %
mean: 21.862 %
HNRG: 18.199 %
median: 18.161 %
low: -22.163 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 3.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.444 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -286.555 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -106.861 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 13.628 %
median: 1.779 %
mean: 1.426 %
HNRG: 0.444 %
low: -13.048 %
 Free Cash Growth -317.56 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 198.779 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -5.589 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 505.858 %
mean: 44.447 %
median: 5.67 %
HNRG: -317.56 %
low: -432.653 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.153
 Cash Flow Margin 16.35 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.971
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA) 5.833 %
Return On Assets QoQ 174.236 %
Return On Assets YoY 2101.132 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.378 %
HNRG: 5.833 %
mean: 1.286 %
median: 0.831 %
low: -8.304 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 13.968 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.163
Return On Equity QoQ 141.973 %
Return On Equity YoY 3254.825 %
Return On Equity IPRWA HNRG: 0.163
high: 0.143
mean: 0.024
median: 0.024
low: -0.141
 DuPont ROE 17.802 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term directional bias tilts bearish. Momentum internals (MACD decreasing, DI+ peak-and-reversal, DI‑ rising, RSI falling) favor downward pressure into the next six weeks unless a decisive technical reversal occurs. Key technical reference points include the lower Bollinger band around $18.59 and the 200-day average near $17.13 for downside support, with the 20–50 day average band and SuperTrend upper boundary around $20.4–$21.1 forming first resistance. Elevated 42‑day beta increases the probability of volatile swings around news catalysts; material developments on the ERAS application or data-center negotiations could change the fundamental backdrop and quickly alter technical momentum. Given the current over-valued standing by WMDST and constrained short-term liquidity ratios, expect a bias toward consolidation or modest pullback while monitoring the indicators flagged above for any reversal of momentum.

About Hallador Energy Company

Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ:HNRG) develops and produces steam coal, primarily for electric power generation. Based in Terre Haute, Indiana, Hallador operates key mining facilities including Oaktown Mines 1 and 2, Freelandville Center Pit, and Prosperity Surface mine. These strategically located sites enable efficient service to the Midwest’s energy needs. Beyond coal production, Hallador diversifies its energy offerings through gas exploration activities. The company also manages a logistics transport facility to ensure reliable delivery of energy resources. Established in 1949, Hallador Energy Company has a longstanding presence in the energy sector, adapting to market changes while emphasizing responsible resource management. As the energy industry evolves, Hallador pursues innovative solutions to meet the demand for sustainable energy, maintaining its role as a dependable partner for electric power generation.



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