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On September 30, 2025 Vaxcyte announced a commercial fill-finish agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific to add capacity at Thermo Fisher’s Greenville, North Carolina facility, a program described as representing up to $1 billion in manufacturing and services. In late November 2025 Investor’s Business Daily noted improving relative-strength metrics for Vaxcyte, citing upgrades in RS ratings that moved the stock toward key technical thresholds. Coverage in financial outlets reiterated the Thermo Fisher deal and framed it as part of a U.S. commercial-supply strategy.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show trend strength emerging: ADX sits at 21.59, indicating an emerging trend rather than a strong one; DI+ at 19.36 now decreasing signals bearish directional pressure, while DI- at 21.08 and increasing reinforces downside bias.
MACD registers -0.11 and follows a decreasing trajectory while the MACD signal line rests at 0.51; MACD negative and declining denotes bearish momentum and no bullish MACD cross currently supports upside continuation.
MRO at -24.24 remains negative, indicating price lies below the model target and implying upside potential from mean reversion; the MRO trend shows further decline, which increases the magnitude of that below-target signal.
RSI at 53.49 and decreasing points to erosion of recent upside momentum without reaching oversold levels; that dynamic favors range-bound behavior unless DI-/MACD momentum intensifies.
Price relationships show the close at $43.06 trading below the 20-day average ($45.33) and short-term EMAs (12-day EMA $44.85 and 26-day EMA $45.19), while remaining above the 200-day average ($39.72), creating a setup where short-term resistance sits near the 20–26 day averages and the SuperTrend upper at $47.84 acts as defined overhead resistance.
Bollinger bands place the lower 1x band at $43.35 and the close just beneath it, a configuration that commonly precedes mean-reversion attempts toward mid-band levels if selling pressure does not accelerate; volume averaged below 10- and 50- and 200-day norms, reducing conviction behind recent moves.
Fundamental Analysis
Top-line valuation context: WMDST values the stock as fair-valued. Market capitalization approximates $5.016 billion against enterprise value near $3.389 billion, producing an enterprise multiple of -14.29 driven by negative operating results.
Profitability and cash: operating income (EBIT) stands at -$242.38M and net income at -$212.83M. Free cash flow reached -$155.35M, while operating cash flow registered -$190.085M. Cash and short-term investments total $1,711,320,000, providing substantial liquidity relative to current cash burn and supporting continued clinical advancement.
Margins and returns show negative profitability: return on assets at -6.572% and return on equity at -7.357%, both reflecting heavy R&D investment—R&D expense totaled $209.933M for the period.
Earnings per share missed estimates: EPS actual at -$1.56 versus estimate -$1.24, an EPS surprise of -$0.32 or -25.8% (EPS surprise ratio -25.806%). Forward EPS sits near -$1.5546 with forward PE approximately -28.52, consistent with a development-stage biotech without revenue-generating products.
Capital structure and liquidity metrics remain conservative: total debt $84.443M produces debt-to-assets of 2.662% and debt-to-equity of 2.919%. Current ratio at 8.8338 and cash ratio 8.5546 indicate ample short-term liquidity; current ratio fell QoQ by 20.462% and YoY by 50.605% per the supplied QoQ/YoY figures.
Valuation multiples relative to peers: price-to-book at 1.7339 sits below the industry peer mean price-to-book of 7.0036 and below the industry peer median of 5.7998, reflecting either market discounting for near-term execution risk or the company’s heavy intangible/book-value profile; forward PE and PEG remain negative, consistent with expected losses. P/B rose QoQ by 19.91% but fell YoY by 54.09% based on supplied QoQ/YoY deltas.
Cash-flow trends show improvement in some metrics: free cash flow yield improved QoQ by 5.054% and improved YoY by 304.837% per the provided growth deltas, though absolute free cash flow remained negative. Interest coverage remains negative at -22.589 given operating losses but interest income contributed $29.259M to non-operating income.
Brief valuation implication: strong cash and low leverage support continued clinical execution while negative earnings, negative free cash flow and negative forward multiples justify the fair-valued designation; the company’s recent manufacturing agreement increases commercial-readiness and reduces a potential commercialization execution risk component embedded in current valuation.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-04 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-03 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 308.1 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ -190.09 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -12.05 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 32.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -25.52 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 282.5 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | — | |
| Forward Revenue | — | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | — | |
| Depreciation | $ 5.2 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 5.2 M | |
| Research and Development | $ 209.9 M | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 242.4 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | — | |
| EBITDA | $ -237.18 M | |
| EBIT | $ -242.38 M | |
| Operating Income | $ -242.38 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 29.3 M | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | $ 29.3 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -212.83 M | |
| Tax Provision | — | |
| Tax Rate | — | |
| Net Income | $ -212.83 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -212.83 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ -1.24 | |
| EPS Actual | $ -1.56 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -0.32 | |
| EPS Surprise | -25.806 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ -1.55 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 3.2 B | |
| Intangible Assets | — | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 2.9 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 1.8 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 1.7 B | |
| Cash | $ 281.1 M | |
| Net Receivables | — | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 108.2 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 49.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 200.0 M | |
| Net Debt | — | |
| Total Debt | $ 84.4 M | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 278.7 M | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.9 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -1.91 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 22.25 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 130.029 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | — | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 5.0 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 3.4 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -14.289 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 10.313 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -82.013 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 52.77 median: 26.559 mean: 3.76 PCVX: -14.289 low: -81.356 |
|
| EV/R | — | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 1.096 | |
| Asset To Liability | 11.379 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.028 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.027 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 2.503 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 882.288 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.045 mean: 0.214 median: 0.075 PCVX: 0.027 low: 0.0 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.029 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 4.436 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 935.106 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 1.395 mean: 0.194 median: 0.09 PCVX: 0.029 low: -0.869 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 1.734 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 19.909 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -54.087 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 17.968 mean: 7.004 median: 5.8 PCVX: 1.734 low: -8.555 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | -24.728 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -18.67 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -80.213 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 56.753 mean: -3.666 median: -11.135 PCVX: -24.728 low: -93.179 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -0.887 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | — | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | — | |
| Price To Sales YoY | — | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | — | |
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | -28.522 | |
| Forward PE/G | -1.023 | |
| Forward P/S | — | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | — | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Receivables Turnover | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | — | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 520.898 median: 189.366 mean: 166.152 PCVX: 0 low: -314.885 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | — | |
| CapEx To Revenue | — | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -2.318 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 2.9 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 2.9 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 2.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 2.9 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 1.6 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 8.555 | |
| Current Ratio | 8.834 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -20.462 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -50.605 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 25.502 PCVX: 8.834 mean: 4.359 median: 3.195 low: 0.02 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -0.356 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 12.209 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -22.589 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 7.144 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 73.585 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 815.709 mean: 40.414 median: 4.326 PCVX: -22.589 low: -1538.4 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.95 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | — | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -4.047 % | |
| Revenue Growth | — | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | — | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | — | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | — | |
| Earnings Growth | 27.869 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | 61.018 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -213.542 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 162.5 % PCVX: 27.869 % median: -6.452 % mean: -13.38 % low: -198.545 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | — | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | — | |
| Gross Margin YoY | — | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | — | |
| EBIT Margin | — | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | — | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | — | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Sales (ROS) | — | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | — | |
| Return On Sales YoY | — | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | — | |
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -155.35 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -3.097 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 5.054 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 304.837 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 30.655 % median: 0.768 % mean: 0.326 % PCVX: -3.097 % low: -58.703 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 18.66 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -157.997 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -148.592 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 201.164 % mean: 25.695 % median: 21.696 % PCVX: 18.66 % low: -200.947 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.73 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | — | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.893 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | — | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -6.572 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 31.836 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | 79.956 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 30.5 % median: 0.176 % mean: -2.233 % PCVX: -6.572 % low: -66.968 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -8.157 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.074 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 35.663 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 143.852 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.948 median: -0.002 mean: -0.005 PCVX: -0.074 low: -1.385 |
|
| DuPont ROE | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | — | |