Recent News
On September 2, 2025, Air Lease Corporation agreed to a $7.4 billion cash acquisition by a consortium led by Sumitomo Corporation and SMBC Aviation Capital, with participation from Apollo-managed funds and Brookfield; the transaction values common stock at $65.00 per share and targets closing in the first half of 2026.
Technical Analysis
ADX at 30.62 signals a strong underlying trend present in the market structure and supports a near-term directional bias that the acquisition news will accentuate; strong ADX implies trend-following behavior may persist until a decisive reversal appears.
Directional indicators show a DI+ dip-and-reversal, which reads as a bullish shift in directional momentum, while DI- displays a peak-and-reversal that also reads as bullish; those paired signals suggest buyers regained directional control ahead of the takeover, supporting higher short-term price levels relative to recent averages.
MACD sits at 0.11 with the signal at 0.14 and shows a decreasing momentum trend; the indicator currently trades below its signal line, which denotes waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh bullish crossover, reducing the likelihood of an immediate sustained upside move despite the takeover impetus.
MRO at 13.65 registers positive, indicating the price sits above the WMDST target and therefore carries potential to retreat toward valuation benchmarks; the magnitude implies moderate potential for downward mean reversion that could play out before deal-related certainty arrives.
RSI at 61.8 with a decreasing trajectory indicates prior buying carried strength but momentum has begun to cool; that pattern aligns with MACD’s bearish momentum signal and suggests consolidation or a pullback remains a distinct near-term possibility even while trend strength stays elevated.
Price sits above the 200-day average ($55.89) and tracks close to short-term averages (20-day at $63.81, 50-day at $63.68), with tight Bollinger bounds (upper ~ $63.96, lower ~ $63.66) reflecting compressed volatility; compressed ranges plus strong ADX imply directional moves may follow a volatility breakout tied to deal developments or liquidity shifts.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability: EBIT registers at $197,848,000 and the EBIT margin stands at 27.28%, which sits above the industry peer mean (23.14%) but below the industry peer median (30.71%). Quarter-over-quarter EBIT margin moved -60.07%, while year-over-year EBIT margin rose +30.18%, indicating significant intra-year swings in operating efficiency tied to timing of sales, deliveries, or nonrecurring items.
Income Quality & Earnings: GAAP EPS came in at $1.00 versus an estimate of $1.16, producing an EPS surprise of -13.79% (EPS difference -$0.16). Net income for the period measured $146,456,000. Cash from operations reached $458,596,000, but free cash flow stayed negative at -$218,102,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -3.15% and a year-over-year free-cash-flow change of -87.68%.
Revenue & Margins: Total revenue reached $725,393,000 with reported revenue growth at -0.86% and a reported revenue growth YoY figure of -125.12% per the provided values; gross margin registered 27.40% and operating margin 18.94%, both reflecting durable leasing economics but sensitive to sale timing and delivery cadence.
Leverage & Coverage: Total debt stands at $20,194,930,000 with net debt of $19,742,715,000; debt-to-assets equals 60.49% and debt-to-equity equals 242.11% (2.42x). Interest coverage reads 15.36x, indicating ample coverage of interest costs despite elevated leverage typical for aircraft lessors that finance long-lived assets.
Returns: Return on equity measures 1.76% and return on assets 0.44%, showing low reported returns on an asset-heavy balance sheet; year-over-year ROE improved by +29.59% but remains modest in absolute terms relative to the capital base employed.
Valuation: Price multiples show a trailing P/E of 61.91 and an enterprise multiple of 52.38; price-to-book registers 0.83 while price-to-sales measures 9.54. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given elevated earnings multiples alongside negative free cash flow and high net leverage; the $65 per-share cash consideration from the acquisition effectively caps public valuation in the immediate term and compresses upside available to public holders pending deal completion. Price target mean among analysts sits at $66.92, providing context for the cash offer and current market pricing.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-03 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-02 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 459.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 458.6 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -676.70 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 13.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -35.67 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -3.25 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 455.8 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 725.4 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 158.1 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 526.6 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 311.1 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 311.1 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 588.0 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 198.8 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 509.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 197.8 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 137.4 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 12.9 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -12.88 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 185.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 38.5 M | |
| Tax Rate | 20.8 % | |
| Net Income | $ 146.5 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 146.5 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 1.16 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 1.00 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -0.16 | |
| EPS Surprise | -13.793 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.14 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 33.4 B | |
| Intangible Assets | — | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 8.3 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 772.5 M | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 452.2 M | |
| Cash | $ 452.2 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 239.7 M | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 680.2 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 210.8 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 1.5 B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 2.6 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 19.7 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 20.2 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 25.0 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 8.3 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 4.9 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 74.63 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 111.765 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 6.49 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 6.9 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 26.7 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 52.384 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 60.485 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -7.572 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 128.246 AL: 52.384 mean: 39.303 median: 27.904 low: -116.264 |
|
| EV/R | 36.755 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 4.003 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.333 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.708 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.605 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -0.89 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | -3.534 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.836 AL: 0.605 mean: 0.359 median: 0.342 low: 0.09 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 2.421 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -2.01 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | -7.828 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 20.972 mean: 2.482 AL: 2.421 median: 1.115 low: -9.102 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 0.83 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 6.924 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 28.953 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 10.814 mean: 3.617 median: 2.197 AL: 0.83 low: -3.452 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 61.909 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 21.203 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 14.511 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 192.156 AL: 61.909 mean: 35.036 median: 28.877 low: -71.163 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -7.498 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 9.539 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 9.386 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 33.329 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 11.583 AL: 9.539 mean: 6.535 median: 5.772 low: 0.583 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 52.45 | |
| Forward PE/G | -6.352 | |
| Forward P/S | 43.761 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 70.133 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.022 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -2.378 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -0.412 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.318 mean: 0.212 median: 0.211 low: 0.026 AL: 0.022 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.964 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 135.797 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 13.463 mean: 4.994 median: 4.526 AL: 2.964 low: 1.615 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 30.788 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | -7.033 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -93.05 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 339.481 mean: 5.512 AL: -7.033 median: -13.786 low: -237.665 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | -0.406 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.933 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -2.175 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 27.0 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 28.5 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 28.5 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 8.3 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ -1.79 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.177 | |
| Current Ratio | 0.302 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -21.195 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -22.067 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 5.843 mean: 1.398 median: 0.714 AL: 0.302 low: 0.25 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 39.678 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.05 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 15.361 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -59.379 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 52.66 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | AL: 15.361 high: 11.392 mean: 5.599 median: 5.514 low: -14.2 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.181 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 37.821 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 4.106 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.244 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.32 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.005 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 0.273 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -0.861 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -3.475 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -125.117 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 26.335 % mean: 10.727 % median: 1.43 % AL: -0.861 % low: -33.703 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -8.257 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -1.737 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -768.583 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 152.941 % mean: 23.539 % AL: -8.257 % median: -18.571 % low: -118.681 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 27.401 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -8.167 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -3.974 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 77.926 % median: 37.307 % mean: 33.304 % AL: 27.401 % low: -3.273 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 27.275 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -60.07 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 30.179 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 42.202 % median: 30.706 % AL: 27.275 % mean: 23.137 % low: -82.339 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 18.939 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -11.051 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -9.608 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 46.549 % median: 31.173 % mean: 22.612 % AL: 18.939 % low: -56.561 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -218.10 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -3.152 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -73.115 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -87.678 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.783 % median: -0.267 % mean: -0.33 % AL: -3.152 % low: -26.041 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -70.844 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -206.975 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -162.646 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 214.882 % AL: -70.844 % mean: -74.85 % median: -120.302 % low: -287.931 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -1.489 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 63.908 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 3.165 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.01 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.439 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -62.575 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | 33.435 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 9.974 % mean: 4.125 % median: 1.793 % AL: 0.439 % low: -8.463 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 0.642 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.018 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -62.503 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 29.594 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.466 mean: 0.139 median: 0.075 AL: 0.018 low: -0.514 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 1.768 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 0.549 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -60.39 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -6.314 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 5.629 % mean: 3.333 % median: 2.917 % AL: 0.549 % low: -5.447 % |
|