Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Signals Margin Repair While Navigating Large Non-Cash Impairment

Operational metrics show pockets of improvement against a backdrop of a substantial non-cash charge, creating a contested near-term price trajectory. Valuation metrics and cash reserves frame potential upside if margin trends sustain.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+/DI-: ADX at 15.07 indicates no dominant trend, reducing conviction for directional breakouts. DI+ shows a peak-and-reverse pattern, a bearish read, while DI- also shows a peak-and-reverse pattern that reads bullish; combined with the low ADX, these opposing signals imply range-bound action rather than an immediate directional follow-through.

MACD: MACD at 0.39 sits slightly beneath the signal line at 0.40 and displays a peak-and-reverse pattern, signaling bearish momentum. That bearish MACD momentum tempers confidence that short-term rallies will extend without fresh positive catalysts.

MRO: MRO reads -22.35, indicating the market price sits below the oscillator’s target and therefore carries potential upward pressure toward the model target. That potential aligns with valuation indicators that suggest under-valuation, but momentum indicators must confirm any advance.

RSI: RSI at 52.7 with a peak-and-reverse pattern suggests momentum losing its recent crest and implies limited near-term upside thrust absent renewed buyer participation.

Price Vs. Moving Averages & Bands: Price closed at $35.95, below the 200-day average of $45.50, a long-term bearish placement, but near the 50-day average of $35.35 and just under the 20-day average of $36.12, reflecting consolidation around intermediate moving averages. Bollinger bands place the 1x lower at $35.03 and 1x upper at $37.22; the stock trades near the middle of that short-term band, consistent with the range-bound reading from ADX.

Support, Resistance & Volume: SuperTrend lower support sits at $33.92. Volume at 6.93M trails 10- and 50-day averages, indicating muted participation on recent moves and reducing conviction in any breakout until volume normalizes.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings And Adjusted Results: Adjusted EPS came in at $0.50 versus an estimate of -$0.16, producing an EPS surprise of 412.5% and prompting management to raise full-year adjusted guidance. The reported GAAP net loss reflects a sizeable non-cash goodwill impairment disclosed alongside the quarter, which drove the negative headline net income while adjusted operating performance showed improvement.

Profitability Metrics: EBIT totaled -$6.504B, yielding an EBIT margin of -13.09%. That EBIT margin sits below the industry peer range, below the peer low of -10.679% and well under the peer mean of 5.161%, signaling a material earnings-pressure outlier versus peers. Operating margin registers -0.425% and gross margin 6.543%, both consistent with pressure on profitability despite pockets of revenue scale.

Top-Line And Growth: Reported total revenue reached $49.69B while revenue growth year-over-year shows -64.572% and revenue growth (general) reads 1.945%; quarter-to-quarter dynamics show a sharp QoQ decline of -57.272%, indicating volatile near-term revenue trends that require monitoring for stabilizing demand or pricing effects.

Cash Flow, Liquidity And Leverage: Cash and short-term investments total $19.237B with free cash flow of $1.145B and a free cash flow yield of 6.654%, above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 2.099%. Net debt sits modestly at $525M against a market cap of $17.206B, and debt-to-equity equals 0.839, reflecting manageable net leverage given the cash position. Current ratio reads 1.084, close to the industry peer mean of 1.057, indicating near-par short-term liquidity.

Valuation Context: Market multiples show a trailing P/E of 70.0 and a forward P/E of 19.46 with forward EPS of $1.76; book value per share near $42.63 produces a P/B of 0.82, below the industry peer mean and median, while forward multiples imply materially lower forward valuation relative to the trailing multiple. The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as under-valued, supported by a strong cash base, modest net debt, and elevated free cash flow yield if adjusted operating trends hold.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 14.6 B
 Operating Cash Flow 1.4 B
 Capital Expenditures -211.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 763.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 2.6 B
 End Period Cash Flow 17.2 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 49.7 B
 Forward Revenue -1.62 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 46.4 B
 Depreciation 147.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 317.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 49.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 3.3 B
 EBITDA -6.19 B
 EBIT -6.50 B
 Operating Income -211.00 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 170.0 M
 Net Interest Income -170.00 M
 Income Before Tax -6.67 B
 Tax Provision -42.00 M
 Tax Rate 0.629 %
 Net Income -6.63 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -6.63 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.16
 EPS Actual 0.50
 EPS Difference 0.66
 EPS Surprise 412.5 %
 Forward EPS 1.76
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 82.1 B
 Intangible Assets 15.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 5.3 B
 Total Current Assets 44.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 19.2 B
 Cash 17.1 B
 Net Receivables 23.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.0 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 16.9 B
 Short-Term Debt 38.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.6 B
 Net Debt 525.0 M
 Total Debt 17.6 B
 Total Liabilities 61.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 20.9 B
 Retained Earnings 9.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 42.63
 Shares Outstanding 491.414 M
 Revenue Per-Share 101.12
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 17.2 B
 Enterprise Value 15.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple -2.514
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -103.21 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -118.73 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 190.244
median: 35.913
mean: 12.268
CNC: -2.514
low: -105.843
 EV/R 0.313
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.919
 Asset To Liability 1.345
 Debt To Capital 0.456
 Debt To Assets 0.214
Debt To Assets QoQ 5.284 %
Debt To Assets YoY 15766.667 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.914
mean: 0.346
median: 0.262
CNC: 0.214
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.839
Debt To Equity QoQ 30.872 %
Debt To Equity YoY 20573.892 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.285
CNC: 0.839
median: 0.814
mean: -0.299
low: -5.631
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.821
Price To Book QoQ 28.208 %
Price To Book YoY -38.348 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.321
mean: 2.209
median: 1.785
CNC: 0.821
low: -0.284
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 70.028
Price To Earnings QoQ -176.556 %
Price To Earnings YoY 59.054 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 167.73
CNC: 70.028
mean: 61.41
median: 54.99
low: -41.31
 PE/G Ratio -0.17
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.346
Price To Sales QoQ -3.873 %
Price To Sales YoY -60.002 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 17.139
mean: 2.453
median: 1.147
CNC: 0.346
low: 0.138
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 19.463
Forward PE/G -0.047
Forward P/S -10.619
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3792.345
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.59
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.944 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 16.144 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.247
CNC: 0.59
mean: 0.531
median: 0.414
low: 0.029
 Receivables Turnover 2.225
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.409 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -7.683 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.084
mean: 3.869
median: 3.655
CNC: 2.225
low: 0.147
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 41.007
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 10.725
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 72.266
median: 15.133
CNC: 10.725
mean: 10.538
low: -55.902
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 14.478
 CapEx To Revenue -0.004
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.435
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 38.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 38.5 B
 Invested Capital 38.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 5.3 B
 Net Working Capital 3.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.473
 Current Ratio 1.084
Current Ratio QoQ -1.227 %
Current Ratio YoY -1.258 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.955
CNC: 1.084
mean: 1.057
median: 0.88
low: 0.622
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -2.842
 Cost Of Debt 0.961 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -38.259
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 7375.93 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -713.816 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 19.851
mean: 6.196
median: 5.31
low: -11.697
CNC: -38.259
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.111
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 30.282
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -4.986 %
 Revenue Growth 1.945 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -57.272 %
Revenue Growth YoY -64.572 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.991 %
median: 3.999 %
mean: 3.329 %
CNC: 1.945 %
low: -8.694 %
 Earnings Growth -412.5 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 250.807 %
Earnings Growth YoY 1147.807 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 131.373 %
median: 1.754 %
mean: -7.081 %
low: -66.667 %
CNC: -412.5 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 6.543 %
Gross Margin QoQ 8.22 %
Gross Margin YoY -31.858 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.429 %
mean: 27.212 %
median: 13.421 %
CNC: 6.543 %
low: -4.713 %
 EBIT Margin -13.089 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 7253.371 %
EBIT Margin YoY -601.494 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 19.623 %
mean: 5.161 %
median: 3.465 %
low: -10.679 %
CNC: -13.089 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -0.425 %
Return On Sales QoQ -48.609 %
Return On Sales YoY -116.284 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 16.487 %
mean: 7.232 %
median: 2.448 %
CNC: -0.425 %
low: -9.146 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.1 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 6.654 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -25.919 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -314.024 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.435 %
CNC: 6.654 %
median: 2.383 %
mean: 2.099 %
low: -8.76 %
 Free Cash Growth -27.394 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -286.468 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -82.536 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 316.092 %
CNC: -27.394 %
median: -92.403 %
mean: -112.453 %
low: -300.903 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.173
 Cash Flow Margin -9.088 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.681
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -7.871 %
Return On Assets QoQ 2595.548 %
Return On Assets YoY -1013.109 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.616 %
median: 1.207 %
mean: 0.953 %
low: -6.661 %
CNC: -7.871 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -15.689 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.317
Return On Equity QoQ 3329.577 %
Return On Equity YoY -1312.371 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.085
median: 0.011
mean: -0.055
CNC: -0.317
low: -0.36
 DuPont ROE -27.428 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -16.774 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 10863.399 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 246.213 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.692 %
median: 2.476 %
mean: 2.367 %
low: -1.536 %
CNC: -16.774 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a range-bound environment driven by low trend strength and mixed momentum signals. Technical momentum (MACD and RSI peak-and-reverse) leans bearish, but a negative MRO indicates price below model targets and creates asymmetric upside potential if adjusted profit trends and guidance reinforcement persist. Key technical support cluster near $33.90 (super trend lower and Bollinger lower) provides a near-term downside reference; overhead resistance sits near the Bollinger 1x upper at $37.22 and the 50-day average, making the $36–$37 band a short-term barrier. Volume below recent averages reduces breakout odds; sustained directional moves will require renewed volume and a shift in MACD momentum above its signal line.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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