Recent News
On October 7–8, multiple reports indicated Confluent engaged an investment bank to explore a potential sale after drawing interest from private equity and technology buyers. On August 19 a securities-fraud investigation notice surfaced following management commentary about reduced usage from an AI-native customer. Separately, a major bank initiated coverage in early October with a constructive rating and refreshed price targets.
Technical Analysis
ADX sits at 36.07, signaling a strong trending environment that increases the likelihood of sustained directional moves rather than choppy mean reversion; that strength magnifies the impact of upcoming corporate catalysts on price.
DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal, indicating renewed bullish pressure; DI- shows an increasing path, indicating simultaneous downside pressure. The combination points to active contest between buyers and sellers within a strong trend.
MACD displays a dip-and-reversal, a bullish momentum profile, but the MACD value (0.55) remains marginally below its signal line (0.57), so bullish momentum lacks a confirmed MACD crossover at this time.
MRO registers 0.42 and shows a dip-and-reversal; the positive but small MRO suggests price sits modestly above model-derived target, implying limited upside without further confirmation from momentum indicators or news catalysts.
RSI at 56.99 with a dip-and-reversal shows regained buying interest without overbought stress, supporting the idea that short-term bullish moves can extend while remaining within normal momentum bounds.
Price trades above the 12-day and 26-day EMAs and above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day averages (price close $24.45 vs. 200-day $23.51 and 50-day $21.42), reinforcing short-to-intermediate bullish bias; the 12-day EMA shows a dip-and-reversal consistent with momentum recovery.
Bollinger bands place the close above the 1x upper band, suggesting near-term overextension relative to recent volatility; the super-trend lower band at $21.91 and Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun levels near $23.60/$22.73 provide visible support levels if momentum fades.
Volume on the latest session ran lower than 10-, 50-, and 200-day averages, indicating the recent price lift occurred on below-average participation, which reduces conviction until institutional follow-through appears.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue totaled $298,524,000. YoY revenue contracted by 11.14%, while sequential revenue accelerated sharply QoQ by 39.70%, indicating a near-term recovery in demand after prior weakness.
Operating results remain loss-making: EBIT of -$83,312,000 and operating margin at -27.91%. The operating margin sits above the industry peer low of -41.29% but well below the industry peer mean of 26.10% and median of 27.56%, highlighting continued structural unprofitability versus typical peers.
Net income totaled -$66,504,000 and EBITDA stood at -$75,491,000. Research & development expense remained substantial at $121,758,000, supporting ongoing product development but weighing on near-term profitability and cash generation.
Cash and short-term investments reached $1,989,777,800 with a cash ratio of 3.20 and a current ratio of 4.01, both comfortably above the industry peer mean (current ratio mean ~2.03), supporting operational flexibility and the capacity to navigate strategic options or M&A processes.
Leverage shows total debt of $1,106,476,000, debt-to-assets 38.46% and debt-to-equity ~98.89%, above the industry peer mean debt-to-equity of 47.07%; interest coverage stands deeply negative at -92.57, reflecting operating losses that limit interest-servicing ability absent sustained margin improvement.
Cash flow dynamics present mixed signals: operating cash flow ran negative at -$36,099,000, while free cash flow recorded $24,585,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of 0.33%, marginally below the industry peer mean of ~0.40% for free cash flow yield. Free cash flow generation provides limited but helpful support for near-term liquidity.
Valuation metrics show wide dispersion: a PE of 163.59 (forward PE ~234.30) and a PS of 24.91 versus an industry peer mean PS of 48.36. WMDST values the stock as fair-valued, reflecting the balance between robust cash and growth potential on one side and persistent losses and elevated leverage on the other.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-27 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-26 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 295.6 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ -36.10 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -6.22 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -27.14 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 2.9 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 298.5 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 298.5 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ -34.34 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 77.0 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 7.8 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 7.8 M | |
| Research and Development | $ 121.8 M | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 381.8 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 221.6 M | |
| EBITDA | $ -75.49 M | |
| EBIT | $ -83.31 M | |
| Operating Income | $ -83.31 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | — | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -64.95 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 1.6 M | |
| Tax Rate | 21.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ -66.50 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -66.50 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.10 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.13 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.03 | |
| EPS Surprise | 30.0 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.09 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 2.9 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 170.9 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 948.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 2.5 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 2.0 B | |
| Cash | $ 298.5 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 171.0 M | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 41.7 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 11.8 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 622.6 M | |
| Net Debt | $ 796.5 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 1.1 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 1.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.1 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -2.21 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 3.20 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 349.707 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 0.85 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 7.4 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 6.6 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -86.815 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 20.115 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 43.416 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 664.7 median: 119.829 mean: 109.123 CFLT: -86.815 low: -500.562 |
|
| EV/R | 21.954 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 2.571 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.636 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.497 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.385 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -2.187 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 4572.904 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.164 CFLT: 0.385 mean: 0.261 median: 0.199 low: 0.004 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.989 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -5.051 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 4201.218 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 3.037 CFLT: 0.989 mean: 0.471 median: 0.183 low: -1.761 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 6.646 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -2.787 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -13.301 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 37.375 mean: 15.357 median: 13.236 CFLT: 6.646 low: -17.466 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 163.589 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -258.968 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -25.242 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 480.131 CFLT: 163.589 mean: 157.846 median: 136.726 low: -214.856 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -1.061 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 24.913 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -3.297 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -12.977 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 135.311 mean: 48.358 median: 42.816 CFLT: 24.913 low: 2.522 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 234.3 | |
| Forward PE/G | -1.52 | |
| Forward P/S | -216.579 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -2.366 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.105 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 2.443 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 7.627 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.358 median: 0.131 mean: 0.13 CFLT: 0.105 low: 0.0 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 1.639 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -0.237 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 75.598 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.689 mean: 1.706 CFLT: 1.639 median: 1.571 low: 0.484 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 55.678 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 41.373 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 167.384 median: 44.35 CFLT: 41.373 mean: 24.631 low: -144.827 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.159 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.021 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.795 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 948.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 1.9 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 3.196 | |
| Current Ratio | 4.014 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 0.749 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -5.258 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 6.427 CFLT: 4.014 mean: 2.032 median: 1.124 low: 0.436 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -14.657 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.064 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -92.569 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -13.611 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -11.051 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 96.935 mean: 13.606 median: 9.798 low: -55.039 CFLT: -92.569 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.058 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 14.306 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 2.119 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 5.753 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 39.704 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -11.137 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 20.808 % CFLT: 5.753 % mean: 4.724 % median: 4.092 % low: -6.143 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -154.167 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -61.458 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -331.249 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 196.581 % median: 12.791 % mean: 7.981 % low: -122.222 % CFLT: -154.167 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 74.22 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 0.671 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -0.428 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 90.981 % median: 77.558 % mean: 76.5 % CFLT: 74.22 % low: 37.637 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | -27.908 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -18.309 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -25.449 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 76.323 % median: 27.559 % mean: 26.098 % CFLT: -27.908 % low: -41.293 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | -27.908 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -18.309 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -25.449 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 76.795 % median: 29.387 % mean: 24.868 % CFLT: -27.908 % low: -44.13 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 24.6 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.331 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 119.205 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 154.615 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.597 % mean: 0.402 % CFLT: 0.331 % median: 0.259 % low: -1.573 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 123.398 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -192.53 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -49.565 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 268.25 % CFLT: 123.398 % mean: -17.644 % median: -18.341 % low: -206.623 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -0.37 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -12.092 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.543 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -2.336 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -21.373 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -19.086 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 8.311 % mean: 2.438 % median: 1.859 % CFLT: -2.336 % low: -9.564 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -3.695 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.059 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -22.858 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -25.113 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.151 median: 0.053 mean: 0.053 CFLT: -0.059 low: -0.209 |
|
| DuPont ROE | -6.094 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | -2.973 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -15.803 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -173.845 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 17.602 % mean: 4.464 % median: 3.209 % CFLT: -2.973 % low: -12.344 % |
|