TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) Poised For Near-Term Consolidation Ahead Of Q3 Release

TFI International shows mixed momentum and compressed valuation signals while corporate events concentrate near-term focus. Operational margins underperform peer averages even as cash generation and free cash flow yield support a valuation classified as under-valued by WMDST.

Recent News

On September 15, 2025 the company’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per common share payable October 15, 2025 to holders of record September 30, 2025. On October 9, 2025 the company announced that third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2025 will release October 30, 2025 after market close with a management webcast scheduled October 31, 2025.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a shift away from bullish internals despite low trend strength: the ADX at 16.34 signals no established trend, while DI+ at 23.73 has peaked and reversed (bearish) and DI- at 22.85 has dipped and reversed (bearish), implying a bias toward downward directional pressure without confirmed trend momentum; this suggests potential sideways-to-lower price action rather than a sustained trend.

MACD sits at 0.11 with a peak-and-reversal trend, which signifies weakening bullish momentum, yet MACD currently sits above its signal line (-0.01), creating a near-term bullish crossover signal; the coexistence implies short-lived bullish impulses inside a broader loss of momentum that traders should treat as contested.

The MRO registers -22.31 (negative), indicating the market price sits below the WMDST target and carries upward reversion potential; that signal supports valuation-driven upside pressure while technical momentum fails to align decisively.

RSI at 49.66 with a peak-and-reversal trend places momentum near neutral but tilting away from prior strength, consistent with a consolidation bias rather than clear breakout risk.

Price sits below major averages: close at $90.74 compares to the 20-day average $91.67, 50-day average $92.57 and 200-day average $93.79, while the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal; Ichimoku lines (Tenkan/Kijun both $92.14, cloud roughly $93.25/$91.42) place the market price beneath short-term conversion lines and beneath the cloud—technical alignment favors resistance above current price and limited near-term upside without a momentum shift.

Bollinger bands enclose price between $88.15 (lower) and $95.20 (upper), indicating present volatility remains contained; volume at 173,099 tracks below 10/50/200-day averages, which weakens breakout conviction and signals lower participation during recent moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Top-line and margins: total revenue stands at $2,037,621,000 and reported revenue growth reads 3.73%. YoY revenue growth shows -82.29% (reported value), and QoQ movement shows -168.82% (reported), both provided in the record; gross margin registers 13.05% while operating margin measures 8.18% and EBIT margin 8.22%. Each margin sits below the industry peer mean (gross margin mean 39.58%, operating margin mean 36.41%, EBIT margin mean 39.41%), indicating compressed profitability relative to peers.

Earnings and cash flow: reported EPS came in at $1.34 versus an estimate of $1.23, an EPS beat of $0.11 representing an 8.94% surprise. Operating cash flow tallied $246,680,000 with free cash flow $161,725,000; free cash flow yield equals 2.15%, above the industry peer mean of 0.76%, and free cash flow year-over-year improvement reads 108.63% (reported), supporting cash-based valuation arguments despite margin pressure.

Balance sheet and leverage: total debt equals $3,021,171,000 with net debt $2,421,911,000 and debt-to-EBITDA about 9.33x; interest coverage sits at 4.54x, below the industry peer mean of 8.76x, reflecting tighter coverage. Debt-to-assets at 41.91% marginally exceeds the peer mean of 37.42%, while debt-to-equity at 1.13x sits slightly below the peer mean 1.25x. These figures portray meaningful leverage with manageable short-term coverage but limited margin for stress.

Returns and efficiency: return on equity registers 3.67% (below industry peer mean 6.89%), return on assets 1.37% (below peer mean 2.27%), and asset turnover 0.284 (above the peer mean 0.093), showing operational throughput but low profit conversion. Cash conversion cycle near 7.7 days sits above the industry peer mean of about -1.6 days, indicating slower net cash conversion relative to peers.

Valuation: price-to-earnings at 67.08x compares below the industry peer mean of 76.79x; price-to-book stands at 2.81x versus a peer mean about 5.06x; forward P/E measures 41.46x. WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on cash-flow yield and adjusted enterprise metrics, yet current profitability and leverage constrain valuation upside until margin expansion or deleveraging materializes.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 16.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 246.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -84.95 M
 Change In Working Capital 35.6 M
 Dividends Paid -38.81 M
 Cash Flow Delta 11.5 M
 End Period Cash Flow 27.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.0 B
 Forward Revenue 927.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.8 B
 Depreciation 134.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 156.4 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 266.0 M
 EBITDA 323.8 M
 EBIT 167.4 M
 Operating Income 166.6 M
 Interest Income 305.0 K
 Interest Expense 36.9 M
 Net Interest Income -40.30 M
 Income Before Tax 130.5 M
 Tax Provision 32.4 M
 Tax Rate 24.8 %
 Net Income 98.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 98.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.23
 EPS Actual 1.34
 EPS Difference 0.11
 EPS Surprise 8.943 %
 Forward EPS 2.15
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 7.2 B
 Intangible Assets 2.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.08 M
 Total Current Assets 1.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 27.9 M
 Cash 27.9 M
 Net Receivables 931.8 M
 Inventory 17.4 M
 Long-Term Investments 21.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 682.6 M
 Short-Term Debt 86.4 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.0 B
 Net Debt 2.4 B
 Total Debt 3.0 B
 Total Liabilities 4.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.7 B
 Retained Earnings 1.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 32.25
 Shares Outstanding 83.022 M
 Revenue Per-Share 24.54
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 7.5 B
 Enterprise Value 10.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.457
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -21.928 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -10.214 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 74.098
median: 49.365
mean: 47.713
TFII: 32.457
low: 24.259
 EV/R 5.158
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.692
 Asset To Liability 1.591
 Debt To Capital 0.53
 Debt To Assets 0.419
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.932 %
Debt To Assets YoY 345.714 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.665
TFII: 0.419
median: 0.393
mean: 0.374
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 1.128
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.473 %
Debt To Equity YoY 323.651 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.089
mean: 1.251
median: 1.174
TFII: 1.128
low: 0.0
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.808
Price To Book QoQ -7.308 %
Price To Book YoY -39.511 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 8.157
mean: 5.064
median: 5.06
TFII: 2.808
low: 0.999
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 67.076
Price To Earnings QoQ -46.289 %
Price To Earnings YoY -19.995 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 148.709
mean: 76.787
median: 72.327
TFII: 67.076
low: 52.242
 PE/G Ratio 0.879
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.689
Price To Sales QoQ -9.065 %
Price To Sales YoY -31.54 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 23.472
median: 19.358
mean: 18.749
TFII: 3.689
low: 2.095
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 41.463
Forward PE/G 0.543
Forward P/S 8.108
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 13.601
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.284
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.267 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -9.878 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.305
TFII: 0.284
mean: 0.093
median: 0.083
low: 0.043
 Receivables Turnover 2.158
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.634 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -3.721 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.67
median: 3.172
mean: 3.042
TFII: 2.158
low: 1.461
 Inventory Turnover 102.491
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.061 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 29.221 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA TFII: 102.491
high: 6.399
mean: 4.734
median: 4.352
low: 0.82
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 42.281
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 7.689
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -46.194 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 189.305 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 107.173
TFII: 7.689
mean: -1.597
median: -7.03
low: -31.38
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 40.837
 CapEx To Revenue -0.042
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.632
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.1 B
 Invested Capital 5.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.08 M
 Net Working Capital 49.9 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.027
 Current Ratio 1.048
Current Ratio QoQ 1.418 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.808 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.301
TFII: 1.048
mean: 0.84
median: 0.793
low: 0.648
 Quick Ratio 1.031
Quick Ratio QoQ 1.404 %
Quick Ratio YoY 12.311 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.356
TFII: 1.031
mean: 0.638
median: 0.632
low: 0.528
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 9.329
 Cost Of Debt 0.928 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 4.539
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 50.195 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -4.2 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 455.2
mean: 8.759
median: 7.904
TFII: 4.539
low: 1.384
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.275
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 35.495
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.529
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.395
 Dividend Rate 0.47
 Dividend Yield 0.005
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.3 %
 Revenue Growth 3.728 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -168.82 %
Revenue Growth YoY -82.286 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 12.437 %
TFII: 3.728 %
median: 2.107 %
mean: 1.219 %
low: -13.529 %
 Earnings Growth 76.316 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -311.203 %
Earnings Growth YoY 101.346 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 80.0 %
TFII: 76.316 %
median: 16.667 %
mean: 14.464 %
low: -34.483 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 13.052 %
Gross Margin QoQ 18.343 %
Gross Margin YoY -9.631 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 46.214 %
median: 39.711 %
mean: 39.578 %
low: 13.917 %
TFII: 13.052 %
 EBIT Margin 8.217 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 45.279 %
EBIT Margin YoY -8.649 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 48.635 %
median: 41.667 %
mean: 39.413 %
TFII: 8.217 %
low: 1.98 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 8.176 %
Return On Sales QoQ 44.554 %
Return On Sales YoY -9.105 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 41.03 %
median: 38.343 %
mean: 36.409 %
TFII: 8.176 %
low: 1.98 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 161.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.151 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 12.148 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 108.632 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA TFII: 2.151 %
high: 1.536 %
median: 1.0 %
mean: 0.761 %
low: -5.507 %
 Free Cash Growth 5.808 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -130.727 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 129.929 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 131.758 %
median: 7.132 %
TFII: 5.808 %
mean: -8.772 %
low: -237.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.647
 Cash Flow Margin 13.964 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.898
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.371 %
Return On Assets QoQ 74.427 %
Return On Assets YoY -16.504 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.865 %
mean: 2.268 %
median: 2.053 %
TFII: 1.371 %
low: 0.161 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.711 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.037
Return On Equity QoQ 72.24 %
Return On Equity YoY -18.129 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.115
mean: 0.069
median: 0.064
TFII: 0.037
low: 0.005
 DuPont ROE 3.698 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.456 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 47.596 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -88.916 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.104 %
mean: 3.463 %
median: 3.186 %
TFII: 2.456 %
low: 0.417 %

Six-Week Outlook

Event risk centers on the scheduled third-quarter release and management webcast; those dates should drive episodic volatility. Technical internals favor consolidation with a bearish directional tilt but no strong trend given ADX below 20 and muted volume; MRO’s negative reading supports mean-reversion toward the WMDST target while price remains below key moving averages.

Monitor margin commentary, free cash flow conversion, and guidance for signs of margin recovery or cash conversion improvement. Watch for a decisive MACD re-acceleration above the signal line on rising volume or ADX advancing above 20 to confirm trend initiation; absent those, expect range-bound action around current levels with heightened sensitivity to the upcoming earnings release and dividend-related flows.

About TFI International Inc.

TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) delivers comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions across the United States and Canada. The company, along with its subsidiaries, segments its operations into Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics. The Package and Courier division handles the pickup, transport, and delivery of parcels throughout North America. The LTL segment manages the pickup, consolidation, transportation, and delivery of smaller freight loads. Within the TL segment, TFI International provides a range of services including expedited transportation, flatbed, tank, container, and dedicated services, utilizing closed vans or specialized equipment for direct delivery of full loads from origin to destination. The Logistics segment offers asset-light logistics services such as brokerage, freight forwarding, and transportation management, alongside small package parcel delivery. As of the end of 2023, TFI International operates an extensive fleet comprising 11,455 trucks, 34,599 trailers, and collaborates with 7,504 independent contractors. Founded in 1957 and headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada, the company originally bore the name TransForce Inc. before adopting its current name in December 2016.



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