Baxter International Inc. (NYSE:BAX) Navigates Supply Disruption While Heading Toward Rebound

Operational disruption from a North Carolina manufacturing outage and a voluntary pump shipment pause pressured volumes in late July; completed portfolio moves and ample cash provide a foundation for recovery over coming weeks.

Recent News

On July 31, Baxter reported damage at its North Cove, North Carolina manufacturing site tied to Hurricane Helene and voluntarily paused shipments of the Novum IQ Large Volume Pump after reports of two deaths and multiple injuries. Analysts and research firms reacted with lowered price targets and guidance revisions later that day. In early September the company closed its acquisition of Claris Injectables, expanding the generic injectable medicines portfolio. In mid-September Baxter received inclusion to the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices, recognizing its corporate responsibility reporting.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 12.19 shows no trend strength, which tempers directional conviction and reduces the reliability of trend-following signals for the near term.

DI+ reads 23.75 and shows an increasing trend, a bullish directional sign that supports positive price bias versus recent consolidation.

DI- sits at 23.73 with a dip & reversal pattern, a bearish directional signal that suggests renewed downside pressure from sellers during recent trading swings.

MACD at -0.19 has been increasing and sits above its signal line (-0.28); that crossover constitutes a bullish momentum shift that favors short-term upside continuation.

MRO at -18.92 remains negative while trending higher; the negative level indicates price below target and therefore potential for upward mean reversion, with the rising trend reinforcing that potential.

RSI at 44.52 and increasing indicates improving buying interest inside a neutral band, leaving room for further upside before any overbought stress.

Price dynamics show the close at $22.99 sitting slightly above the 20-day average ($22.77) and 12-day EMA ($22.87), but below the 50-day ($23.41) and well under the 200-day average ($28.55), aligning technical bias toward a recovery attempt within a longer-term downtrend.

Bollinger bands place price between the 1x lower band ($22.37) and 1x upper band ($23.17), implying limited intraday volatility and a mean-reversion environment; the SuperTrend upper level at $23.67 acts as nearby resistance to any short-term rally.

Volume at 5,681,442 slightly exceeds the 10-day average (5,130,368), supporting the recent signal mix with above-average participation during consolidation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $2,810,000,000 for the period ending 2025-06-30 while gross profit measured $991,000,000, producing a gross margin of 35.27%. Operating income reached $191,000,000 and EBIT measured $205,000,000, giving an EBIT margin of 7.30%, below the industry peer mean (14.687%) and industry peer median (20.382%).

Operating margin at 6.80% improved quarter-over-quarter by 128.78% (operatingMarginQoQ 1.28778 converted to 128.78%), yet trended lower year-over-year by 269.332% (operatingMarginYoY -2.69332 converted to -269.33%), signaling volatile margin performance across reporting periods.

Revenue growth year-over-year registered 15.07%, while revenue growth quarter-over-quarter showed -251.60% (revenueGrowthQoQ -2.51602 converted to -251.60%), reflecting a deceleration in sequential sales momentum despite solid annual expansion.

Net income tallied $91,000,000 and EPS actual came in at $0.54 versus an estimate of $0.61, producing an EPS surprise of -11.48% (EPSsurpriseRatio -0.11475). Forward EPS stands at $0.72 with a forward P/E of 42.71 and a trailing P/E near 55.25, indicating elevated market valuation relative to current earnings.

Balance-sheet metrics show liquidity headroom: cash and short-term investments total $1,686,000,000, current ratio measures 2.30, and quick ratio sits at 1.49. Net debt reached $7,814,000,000 with total debt at $9,725,000,000 and debt-to-equity at 1.33; debt-to-EBITDA reads 21.05, reflecting significant leverage relative to earnings.

Free cash flow equaled $68,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.50%, while cash conversion ratio measured 73.75% and operating cash flow remained positive at $217,000,000. Return on equity measured 1.24% and return on assets 0.43%, suggesting current profitability sits well below typical industry operating returns and below the industry peer mean for EBIT margins referenced above.

WMDST values the stock as under-valued, a conclusion that balances low free cash flow yield and high leverage against substantial cash holdings, completed strategic portfolio moves (Claris Injectables) and near-term margin recovery potential as supply constraints normalize.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.3 B
 Operating Cash Flow 217.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -149.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -182.00 M
 Dividends Paid -87.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -608.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.7 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.8 B
 Forward Revenue 2.9 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.8 B
 Depreciation 257.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 257.0 M
 Research and Development 134.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 2.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 991.0 M
 EBITDA 462.0 M
 EBIT 205.0 M
 Operating Income 191.0 M
 Interest Income 14.0 M
 Interest Expense 72.0 M
 Net Interest Income -58.00 M
 Income Before Tax 133.0 M
 Tax Provision 11.0 M
 Tax Rate 8.271 %
 Net Income 91.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 122.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.61
 EPS Actual 0.54
 EPS Difference -0.07
 EPS Surprise -11.475 %
 Forward EPS 0.72
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 21.0 B
 Intangible Assets 10.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.02 B
 Total Current Assets 6.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.7 B
 Cash 1.7 B
 Net Receivables 1.8 B
 Inventory 2.4 B
 Long-Term Investments 861.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 995.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 8.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 2.9 B
 Net Debt 7.8 B
 Total Debt 9.7 B
 Total Liabilities 13.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 7.3 B
 Retained Earnings 15.0 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 14.26
 Shares Outstanding 513.498 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.47
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 13.7 B
 Enterprise Value 21.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 46.949
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -36.903 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -65.009 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 234.897
median: 76.655
mean: 69.504
BAX: 46.949
low: -228.246
 EV/R 7.719
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.875
 Asset To Liability 1.53
 Debt To Capital 0.571
 Debt To Assets 0.462
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.509 %
Debt To Assets YoY 392.623 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.297
BAX: 0.462
mean: 0.238
median: 0.167
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 1.329
Debt To Equity QoQ -8.745 %
Debt To Equity YoY 311.43 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.971
BAX: 1.329
mean: 0.382
median: 0.266
low: -1.733
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.865
Price To Book QoQ -18.319 %
Price To Book YoY -19.654 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 17.161
median: 4.499
mean: 4.305
BAX: 1.865
low: -7.981
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 55.245
Price To Earnings QoQ -3.571 %
Price To Earnings YoY 8.011 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 246.592
median: 104.657
mean: 85.517
BAX: 55.245
low: -204.468
 PE/G Ratio -30.388
 Price To Sales (P/S) 4.858
Price To Sales QoQ -21.121 %
Price To Sales YoY 4.39 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 154.906
mean: 21.132
median: 20.417
BAX: 4.858
low: 0.297
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 42.711
Forward PE/G -23.493
Forward P/S 4.783
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 23.103
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.133
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 19.013 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.833 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.482
mean: 0.16
median: 0.135
BAX: 0.133
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 1.644
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.105 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 11.251 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.864
BAX: 1.644
mean: 1.489
median: 1.457
low: 0.477
 Inventory Turnover 0.799
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.535 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 0.202 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.161
BAX: 0.799
mean: 0.739
median: 0.714
low: 0.003
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 55.513
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 122.657
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 5.827 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -7.053 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 401.407
mean: 139.738
BAX: 122.657
median: 114.45
low: -252.738
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.738
 CapEx To Revenue -0.053
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.58
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 16.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 16.8 B
 Invested Capital 16.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.02 B
 Net Working Capital 3.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.574
 Current Ratio 2.296
Current Ratio QoQ 13.627 %
Current Ratio YoY 63.842 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 14.715
BAX: 2.296
mean: 2.255
median: 1.849
low: 0.353
 Quick Ratio 1.485
Quick Ratio QoQ 6.269 %
Quick Ratio YoY 62.37 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 10.15
mean: 1.646
BAX: 1.485
median: 1.303
low: 0.411
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 21.05
 Cost Of Debt 0.659 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.847
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 195.674 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -293.537 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 274.877
mean: 25.898
median: 15.82
BAX: 2.847
low: -384.45
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.013
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 50.643
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.046
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.956
 Dividend Rate 0.17
 Dividend Yield 0.006
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.211 %
 Revenue Growth 7.048 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -251.602 %
Revenue Growth YoY 15.069 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 47.668 %
median: 7.569 %
mean: 7.5 %
BAX: 7.048 %
low: -33.065 %
 Earnings Growth -1.818 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -64.849 %
Earnings Growth YoY -139.393 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 200.0 %
median: 15.596 %
mean: 14.969 %
BAX: -1.818 %
low: -227.273 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 35.267 %
Gross Margin QoQ 7.521 %
Gross Margin YoY -6.052 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.498 %
mean: 57.404 %
median: 56.435 %
BAX: 35.267 %
low: 6.0 %
 EBIT Margin 7.295 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 145.54 %
EBIT Margin YoY -281.739 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 33.87 %
median: 20.382 %
mean: 14.687 %
BAX: 7.295 %
low: -1000.426 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.797 %
Return On Sales QoQ 128.778 %
Return On Sales YoY -269.332 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 35.533 %
median: 18.417 %
mean: 13.025 %
BAX: 6.797 %
low: -1349.836 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 68.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.498 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -125.565 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -4627.273 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 11.539 %
mean: 0.741 %
median: 0.679 %
BAX: 0.498 %
low: -40.868 %
 Free Cash Growth -121.587 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -35.921 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 35.891 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 303.235 %
mean: 11.525 %
median: -1.288 %
BAX: -121.587 %
low: -261.538 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.747
 Cash Flow Margin 1.388 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.429
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.43 %
Return On Assets QoQ -19.626 %
Return On Assets YoY -137.037 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 19.773 %
median: 2.151 %
mean: 1.838 %
BAX: 0.43 %
low: -72.965 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.132 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.012
Return On Equity QoQ -30.129 %
Return On Equity YoY -130.258 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.769
median: 0.035
BAX: 0.012
mean: 0.002
low: -1.731
 DuPont ROE 1.264 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.118 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 309.524 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.45 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 20.851 %
mean: 2.968 %
median: 2.936 %
BAX: 1.118 %
low: -30.099 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect choppy, range-bound action as supply normalization competes with elevated leverage and sentiment pressure from July operational headlines. Technical indicators show a mixed signal set: MACD crossing above its signal line and an increasing DI+ favor modest upside attempts, while a recent dip-and-reverse on DI- and ADX below 20 limit trend follow-through. Momentum measures (negative MRO improving, RSI rising) favor mean reversion higher into resistance near the SuperTrend at $23.67 and the 50-day average near $23.41, but failure to sustain above those levels likely returns price toward the lower Bollinger band and the $21.18 52-week low area. Monitor liquidity and fundamental developments—particularly any updates on the Novum IQ shipment pause and manufacturing recovery—since operational remediation represents the dominant catalyst for a durable directional move.

About Baxter International Inc.

Baxter International Inc. (NYSE:BAX) develops and delivers a broad range of essential healthcare products and therapies. Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, Baxter focuses on advancing patient care through its diverse portfolio. The company operates across four primary segments: Medical Products and Therapies, Healthcare Systems and Technologies, Pharmaceuticals, and Kidney Care. Baxter’s product lineup includes sterile intravenous solutions, infusion systems, and parenteral nutrition, along with a variety of generic injectable pharmaceuticals. The company also provides advanced surgical equipment, smart bed systems, and respiratory health devices. In the realm of kidney care, Baxter offers comprehensive solutions for chronic and acute dialysis therapies, covering both peritoneal and hemodialysis. Serving hospitals, dialysis centers, nursing homes, and home healthcare settings, Baxter ensures its products reach approximately 100 countries, facilitating accessible and quality care. Through strategic collaborations and a strong emphasis on research and development, Baxter continues to expand its offerings in acute care and regenerative medicine, maintaining its position as a leader in healthcare innovation.



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