Ferrari N.V. (NYSE:RACE) Projects Growth But Confronts Near-Term Downward Pressure

Ferrari updated long‑term targets and lifted near‑term guidance while market reads and valuation metrics point to near‑term downside pressure. Strong margins and cash metrics contrast with stretched market multiples and mixed momentum signals.

Recent News

On October 9, 2025 Ferrari raised annual guidance and set a 2030 revenue target of about €9.0 billion, and reported upgraded short‑term revenue guidance for 2025; shares halted and later traded down following the announcement. On October 2, 2025 Charles Leclerc said Ferrari looks unlikely to win a race during the remainder of the 2025 F1 season, citing competitor strength and track conditions.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 30.9 signals a strong directional environment. DI+ at 21.07 is decreasing, a bearish reading. DI- at 47.46 shows a peak-and-reversal, indicating DI- recently rolled over, which suggests easing of prior negative pressure. Together these directional reads point to a strong trend environment with recent weakening of the prior downside momentum.

MACD: MACD at -20.94 and declining, with the MACD below its signal line (-14.48), denotes bearish momentum. That negative and falling MACD aligns with near‑term downward price bias and reinforces caution about momentum sustaining higher levels.

MRO: MRO equals -36.16 (negative), indicating price sits below the WMDST target and implies potential for upward mean reversion. The MRO trend decreasing suggests that mean‑reversion potential remains present but not accelerating.

RSI: RSI at 41.73 with a dip-and-reversal pattern reads as bullish momentum emerging from oversold pressure; this implies scope for short‑term retracement against the larger bearish momentum backdrop.

Price vs Moving Averages & Bands: Last close $400.46 sits below the 50‑day average $462.78 and the 200‑day average $461.39; the 12‑day EMA (price12dayEMA $415.29) trends downward. Price trades nearer the lower Bollinger band ($372.99 lower 1σ) than the upper band, and below the superTrend upper level ($412.00). These levels frame resistance near $412–$438 and show price below multiple trend anchors, supporting downward bias unless momentum indicators reverse.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT of $557,184,000 produces an EBIT margin of 31.17%, and operating margin of 30.74%. Gross margin registers 52.64%. EBIT margin improved QoQ by about 3.16% and improved YoY by about 2.24%. Return on equity equals 11.98% while return on assets equals 4.34%. The company’s EBIT margin sits well above the industry peer range high of 11.89%, reflecting premium pricing and high product margins.

Revenue & Earnings: Total revenue reached $1,787,553,000 with net income $424,266,000. Reported revenue growth stands near flat at -0.18%. EPS actual equaled $2.38 versus an estimate of $2.31, producing an EPS surprise of +3.03%.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow measured $394,897,000 and free cash flow $155,911,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of roughly 0.19%. Cash and short‑term investments total $1,526,350,000 and the cash conversion ratio sits near 88.97%. Current ratio equals 1.68 and quick ratio 1.30, indicating adequate near‑term liquidity.

Leverage & Coverage: Total debt stands at $3,157,902,000 with net debt $1,471,732,000; debt to assets equals 32.72% and debt to equity equals 0.8916 (89.16%). Interest coverage ratio is 45.72x. Debt metrics remain serviceable given earnings and coverage.

Efficiency & Capital: Asset turnover registers 0.1827 and inventory turnover 0.7625; days inventory outstanding about 118. Days sales outstanding 21.1 and days payables outstanding 97.8. Capital expenditures show an outflow of $238,986,000 while research & development expense equals $224,991,000.

Valuation Summary: Price multiples sit at elevated levels: P/E ~203.57, EV/Revenue ~48.03 (EVR 48.03), price-to-sales ~47.11 and enterprise multiple ~120.28. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given stretched multiples and comparatively low free cash flow yield despite strong margins and returns.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.9 B
 Operating Cash Flow 394.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -238.99 M
 Change In Working Capital -133.79 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -396.33 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.5 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.8 B
 Forward Revenue 447.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 846.6 M
 Depreciation 94.2 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 156.6 M
 Research and Development 225.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 1.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 941.0 M
 EBITDA 713.8 M
 EBIT 557.2 M
 Operating Income 549.5 M
 Interest Income 5.1 M
 Interest Expense 12.2 M
 Net Interest Income 86.0 K
 Income Before Tax 545.0 M
 Tax Provision 119.9 M
 Tax Rate 19.1 %
 Net Income 424.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 425.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.31
 EPS Actual 2.38
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 3.03 %
 Forward EPS 2.38
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.7 B
 Intangible Assets 2.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.1 B
 Total Current Assets 5.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.5 B
 Cash 1.5 B
 Net Receivables 416.8 M
 Inventory 1.1 B
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 931.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 1.2 B
 Total Current Liabilities 2.9 B
 Net Debt 1.5 B
 Total Debt 3.2 B
 Total Liabilities 6.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.5 B
 Retained Earnings 3.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 19.87
 Shares Outstanding 178.218 M
 Revenue Per-Share 10.03
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 84.2 B
 Enterprise Value 85.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 120.276
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 2.924 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 9.655 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA RACE: 120.276
high: 73.332
median: 13.755
mean: 12.596
low: -76.086
 EV/R 48.028
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.725
 Asset To Liability 1.581
 Debt To Capital 0.471
 Debt To Assets 0.327
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.72 %
Debt To Assets YoY 146.962 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.75
median: 0.406
RACE: 0.327
mean: 0.323
low: 0.009
 Debt To Equity 0.892
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.541 %
Debt To Equity YoY 134.665 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.556
median: 1.044
RACE: 0.892
mean: 0.805
low: -2.058
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 23.779
Price To Book QoQ 6.819 %
Price To Book YoY -1.434 %
Price To Book IPRWA RACE: 23.779
high: 9.538
mean: 0.113
median: 0.067
low: -8.763
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 203.565
Price To Earnings QoQ 4.997 %
Price To Earnings YoY 12.052 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA RACE: 203.565
high: 142.819
median: 40.911
mean: 37.126
low: -46.537
 PE/G Ratio 58.529
 Price To Sales (P/S) 47.115
Price To Sales QoQ 6.175 %
Price To Sales YoY 7.862 %
Price To Sales IPRWA RACE: 47.115
high: 46.437
mean: 12.924
median: 0.198
low: 0.001
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 196.498
Forward PE/G 56.497
Forward P/S 188.309
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -16.669
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.183
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.965 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.407 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.499
RACE: 0.183
mean: 0.141
median: 0.131
low: 0.004
 Receivables Turnover 4.317
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.336 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -12.423 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 15.67
RACE: 4.317
mean: 2.408
median: 0.845
low: 0.517
 Inventory Turnover 0.762
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.964 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -7.669 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.791
median: 2.02
mean: 1.868
RACE: 0.762
low: 0.035
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 21.135
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 41.534
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 12.768 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 29.648 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 281.771
median: 97.798
mean: 77.36
RACE: 41.534
low: -195.852
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.89
 CapEx To Revenue -0.134
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.537
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.5 B
 Invested Capital 6.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.1 B
 Net Working Capital 2.0 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.518
 Current Ratio 1.682
Current Ratio QoQ -43.034 %
Current Ratio YoY 5.055 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.557
RACE: 1.682
mean: 1.465
median: 1.218
low: 0.057
 Quick Ratio 1.3
Quick Ratio QoQ -44.516 %
Quick Ratio YoY 6.194 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.421
RACE: 1.3
mean: 1.209
median: 1.054
low: 0.076
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 4.424
 Cost Of Debt 0.293 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 45.716
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 8.248 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -0.918 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA RACE: 45.716
high: 37.093
median: 17.914
mean: 13.951
low: -100.099
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.193
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 97.752
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -2.635 %
 Revenue Growth -0.179 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -105.627 %
Revenue Growth YoY -102.226 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 171.227 %
mean: 1.693 %
RACE: -0.179 %
median: -0.888 %
low: -100.0 %
 Earnings Growth 3.478 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -53.484 %
Earnings Growth YoY -80.053 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 164.286 %
median: 48.148 %
mean: 45.803 %
RACE: 3.478 %
low: -66.667 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 52.64 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.005 %
Gross Margin YoY 5.345 %
Gross Margin IPRWA RACE: 52.64 %
high: 43.198 %
median: 17.92 %
mean: 17.307 %
low: -41.091 %
 EBIT Margin 31.17 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 3.161 %
EBIT Margin YoY 2.237 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA RACE: 31.17 %
high: 11.89 %
median: 8.49 %
mean: 4.405 %
low: -544.208 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 30.743 %
Return On Sales QoQ 1.747 %
Return On Sales YoY 0.836 %
Return On Sales IPRWA RACE: 30.743 %
high: 11.89 %
median: 8.602 %
mean: 0.977 %
low: -550.805 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 155.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.185 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -76.403 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 193.651 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 26.113 %
median: 26.113 %
mean: 13.067 %
RACE: 0.185 %
low: -88.246 %
 Free Cash Growth -74.979 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -140.329 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -11.514 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 570.241 %
median: 570.241 %
mean: 335.929 %
RACE: -74.979 %
low: -102.201 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.367
 Cash Flow Margin 31.783 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.339
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 4.337 %
Return On Assets QoQ 2.24 %
Return On Assets YoY -7.723 %
Return On Assets IPRWA RACE: 4.337 %
high: 2.377 %
median: 0.881 %
mean: 0.664 %
low: -27.076 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 8.308 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.12
Return On Equity QoQ 3.876 %
Return On Equity YoY -9.898 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 1.202
RACE: 0.12
mean: 0.051
median: 0.017
low: -0.423
 DuPont ROE 11.932 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 6.653 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 6.024 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -102.566 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 11.036 %
RACE: 6.653 %
median: 1.101 %
mean: 0.948 %
low: -25.139 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators favor downside continuation while short‑term oscillators and MRO allow for intermittent mean‑reversion rallies. Expect elevated volatility and a bias toward lower trading ranges unless MACD stabilizes above its signal line and price reclaims the $412–$438 band of short‑term trend resistance. Monitor RSI and MRO for confirmation of any sustainable reversal; until momentum flips, technicals and stretched valuation suggest price pressure may persist.

About Ferrari N.V.

Ferrari N.V. (NYSE:RACE) designs, engineers, produces, and sells luxury performance sports cars globally. The company’s portfolio includes range models, special series, Icona, and supercars, along with limited edition and one-off vehicles. Ferrari also manufactures racing cars and provides spare parts and engines. Their services extend to after-sales support, including repair, maintenance, and restoration. Beyond automobiles, Ferrari licenses its brand to producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. The company manages Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello and operates the Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello. Additionally, Ferrari runs theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Ferrari also offers financial and leasing services to retail clients and dealers. They manage racetracks and develop apparel and accessories. The company operates both franchised and owned Ferrari stores, selling products through authorized dealers and its website. Founded in 1947, Ferrari maintains its headquarters in Maranello, Italy.



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