Recent News
On July 31, 2025 XPO reported second-quarter 2025 results, including revenue of $2.08 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $340 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.05. In August 2025 XPO released preliminary North American LTL operating data showing LTL tonnage per day declined 4.7% year-over-year, driven by lower shipments per day and lighter weight per shipment.
Technical Analysis
ADX / Directional Indicators: ADX at 13.85 indicates no clear trend; directional movement shows bearish pressure — DI+ registered a peak & reversal while DI- registered a dip & reversal, consistent with rising downside pressure against a market that lacks a defined directional trend. Relating this to valuation, stretched multiples increase sensitivity to negative momentum, so lack of trend control raises the probability of sideways-to-down price action while the market digests fundamentals.
MACD: MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 0.17 vs. signal 0.32) with a peak & reversal pattern, indicating bearish momentum. That momentum profile reduces the likelihood of a sharp near-term breakout and aligns with consolidation around current averages.
MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO stands positive at 21.49 with a peak & reversal, which indicates price sits above the WMDST target and carries a tendency to revert lower. The positive MRO combined with momentum rollover supports a near-term mean reversion bias against any sustained rally while valuation remains elevated.
RSI & Short-Term Price Structure: RSI near 50 (49.89) with a peak & reversal suggests momentum already peaked and has started to reverse, implying limited short-term upside. Price trades just below short-term averages and EMAs — the 12-day EMA and 20-day average sit above the close while the 200-day average remains below — showing short-term friction atop longer-term support. Bollinger bands place the close near the mid-band, consistent with consolidation rather than trending breakout.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Margins: EBIT equals $199,000,000 and EBIT margin of 9.57% improved sequentially (EBIT margin QoQ +27.17%) but declined slightly year-over-year (EBIT margin YoY -2.02%). That EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 23.105% and the industry peer median of 35.181%, indicating operating profitability trails typical peer benchmarks despite recent sequential gains. Operating margin at 9.95% tracks closely with EBIT margin and shows modest YoY improvement.
Revenue & Earnings Growth: Revenue totaled $2.08 billion with revenue growth reported at 6.45% and year-over-year revenue growth shown as 113.30%. Net income from continuing operations registered $106,000,000. EPS beat consensus modestly: actual EPS $1.05 vs. estimate $0.99, an EPS surprise of +6.06%, supporting the narrative of margin and earnings execution outpacing expectations for the quarter.
Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow reached $247,000,000 and the company ended the period with $225,000,000 in cash and short-term investments. Free cash flow tallied $51,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.34%. Cash conversion showed strength (cash conversion ratio 86.67%), but absolute cash balances remain modest relative to total debt, limiting near-term flexibility.
Leverage & Coverage: Total debt stands at $4,167,000,000 with net debt $3,182,000,000 and debt-to-EBITDA of 12.63x. Debt-to-assets measures 51.24% and debt-to-equity equals 233.97%. Interest coverage of 3.55x provides some buffer but falls well below the industry peer mean of 14.05x, highlighting elevated leverage relative to typical peer coverage levels.
Returns & Asset Turns: Return on equity at 5.95% and return on assets at 1.32% show modest capital returns; asset turnover of 0.2598 trails the industry peer mean of 0.19803 in absolute terms but sits inside the industry peer range. Invested capital and operating leverage metrics reflect capital intensity of the business and ongoing investments in network capacity.
Valuation: The current valuation as determined by WMDST reads “over-valued.” Market multiples support that view: trailing P/E ~119.03, forward P/E ~106.68, price-to-book ~8.35, price-to-sales ~7.15 and enterprise multiple of ~57.03. Those multiples outpace typical free cash flow yields and sit high relative to operating cash generation, reinforcing limited upside absent faster margin expansion or sizable debt reduction.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-06-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-07-31 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-29 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 221.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 247.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -196.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -16.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 12.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 233.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 2.1 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 636.8 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.8 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 131.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 131.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 268.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 330.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 199.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 207.0 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 56.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -56.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 143.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 37.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 25.9 % | |
| Net Income | $ 106.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 106.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.99 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 1.05 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.06 | |
| EPS Surprise | 6.061 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.10 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 8.1 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -112.00 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 1.6 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 225.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 225.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 1.1 B | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 215.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 498.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 63.0 M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 1.6 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 3.2 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 4.2 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 6.4 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.8 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 747.0 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 15.13 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 117.745 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 17.67 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 14.9 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 18.8 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 57.028 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -9.434 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 47.507 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 117.168 XPO: 57.028 mean: 36.124 median: 35.56 low: -30.584 |
|
| EV/R | 9.048 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 4.567 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.28 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.701 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.512 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -1.803 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 6087.923 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.783 XPO: 0.512 mean: 0.164 low: 0.001 median: 0.001 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 2.34 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -6.663 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 5379.391 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 2.837 XPO: 2.34 mean: 0.6 low: 0.001 median: 0.001 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 8.353 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 4.556 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -1.798 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | XPO: 8.353 high: 7.308 median: 6.315 mean: 5.152 low: 0.126 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 119.028 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -21.889 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 21.637 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | XPO: 119.028 high: 117.541 mean: 32.761 median: 9.189 low: -53.415 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 2.715 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 7.153 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 6.667 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 16.62 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | XPO: 7.153 high: 5.959 median: 3.686 mean: 3.24 low: 0.371 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 106.681 | |
| Forward PE/G | 2.434 | |
| Forward P/S | 23.362 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 5.486 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.26 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 3.65 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -4.2 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.784 XPO: 0.26 mean: 0.198 median: 0.076 low: 0.02 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 1.878 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -1.001 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -2.21 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.919 median: 2.058 mean: 1.979 XPO: 1.878 low: 0.633 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 48.586 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | — | |
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 86.667 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.094 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.496 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 5.1 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 5.2 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 5.2 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -112.00 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 24.0 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.141 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.015 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -0.362 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | 1.108 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.152 median: 1.313 mean: 1.265 XPO: 1.015 low: 0.018 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 12.627 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.003 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.554 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 35.374 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -1.97 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 44.954 mean: 14.047 median: 9.268 XPO: 3.554 low: -0.25 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.116 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 26.09 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 3.224 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 6.448 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 287.267 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 113.298 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 19.971 % median: 19.971 % mean: 11.015 % XPO: 6.448 % low: -1.508 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 43.836 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -343.831 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | 14.538 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 96.552 % XPO: 43.836 % mean: 4.805 % median: -3.788 % low: -21.429 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 12.885 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 21.625 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 1.083 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 24.885 % mean: 18.489 % median: 17.813 % XPO: 12.885 % low: 0.618 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 9.567 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 27.17 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -2.018 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 35.181 % median: 35.181 % mean: 23.105 % XPO: 9.567 % low: -0.141 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 9.952 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 32.288 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | 1.925 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 20.411 % XPO: 9.952 % mean: 8.992 % median: 8.586 % low: 0.629 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 51.0 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.343 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -178.851 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 118.471 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 4.61 % median: 0.344 % XPO: 0.343 % mean: 0.0 % low: -8.76 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -189.474 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -45.526 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 68.538 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 128.824 % median: -54.015 % mean: -69.703 % XPO: -189.474 % low: -294.67 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.481 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 8.894 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.745 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.03 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 1.324 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 49.605 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -32.345 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.26 % median: 2.928 % mean: 2.471 % XPO: 1.324 % low: -0.899 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 3.046 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.06 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 41.478 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -40.522 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.085 XPO: 0.06 mean: 0.046 median: 0.032 low: -0.088 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 6.197 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 2.843 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 28.468 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -103.297 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 8.045 % mean: 3.052 % XPO: 2.843 % median: 2.562 % low: -0.61 % |
|