Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) Signals Near-Term Pullback Amid Overvaluation

Kirby shows valuation pressure and compressed cash returns while technicals point toward a corrective phase that could resolve into a momentum-driven rebound if key momentum indicators converge.

Technical Analysis

Directional Indicators / ADX: ADX at 39.48 indicates a strong trend strength without directional bias. DI+ at 14.70 registered a peak & reversal, a bearish directional development; DI- at 34.94 registered a peak & reversal, a bullish directional development. Together, the directional readouts reflect active directional contestation within a strong trend environment.

MACD: MACD stands at -3.05 with the MACD line above the signal line (-3.46) and the MACD trend increasing; that cross above the signal line constitutes a bullish momentum shift despite negative absolute MACD, signaling improving downside momentum.

MRO: The MRO shows a peak & reversal at -33.22, and its negative value indicates the current price sits below the modeled target, implying potential upward pressure if momentum follows the oscillator reversal.

RSI and Price Action vs Moving Averages: RSI at 36.13 with a decreasing trend signals weakening near-term momentum and proximity to oversold territory. Price closed at $81.54, below the 20-day average ($84.02), the 50-day average ($92.63), and the 200-day average ($102.82). The 12-day EMA trend decreases and the 26-day EMA ($86.83) sits above price, confirming short-to-intermediate bearish bias on moving-average alignment.

Bands, Volatility, Volume: Price sits beneath the 1x Bollinger lower band ($82.70), consistent with an intraday/short-term overshoot below recent volatility bands. SuperTrend upper at $87.10 and Ichimoku components (Kijun Sen $89.69, Senkou A $102.95, Senkou B $107.52) mark nearby resistance structure. Volume at 988,099 slightly exceeds the 10‑day average (919,684) but remains below the 50‑day average (1,018,662), indicating intraday interest without broadening participation. Beta (42‑day 1.29; 52‑week 1.15) confirms above-market volatility sensitivity.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: EBIT equals $136,658,000 and EBIT margin registers 15.98%. EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean (17.25%) and above the industry peer median (14.86%). Operating margin at 15.22% and return on sales at 15.22% register modest QoQ improvement (operating margin QoQ +7.81%) and YoY improvement (+1.49%), supporting a stable operating profile.

Revenue & Earnings Growth: Total revenue $855,455,000 with revenue growth at 8.88% and revenue growth year-over-year at 338.50% as reported; earnings growth equals 25.56% with earnings growth QoQ at +7.24% and YoY at +26.76%. EPS actual $1.67 exceeded estimate $1.63 by $0.04, a 2.45% surprise.

Cash, Cash Flow, and Capital Allocation: Cash and short-term investments $68,383,000; operating cash flow $93,922,000; free cash flow $22,449,000 yielding 0.38%. Free cash flow yield stands below the industry peer mean (4.13%), reflecting low cash return relative to valuation. Capital expenditures totaled $71,473,000, and capex-to-revenue equals -8.355% (reported as a negative capex figure), showing ongoing capital deployment.

Leverage and Coverage: Total debt $1,297,855,000 with net debt $1,049,382,000. Debt-to-EBITDA equals 6.41x. Debt-to-assets at 21.35% sits below the industry peer mean (35.59%); debt-to-equity at 0.383 sits below the industry peer mean (0.734). Interest coverage at 10.74x exceeds the industry peer mean (2.60x), indicating strong earnings capacity to service interest despite elevated gross leverage by the debt/EBITDA metric.

Valuation Multiples: P/E stands at 67.33 and forward P/E at 63.60, both above the industry peer mean (P/E mean 32.10; forward P/E mean 29.74) and above the industry peer median. Price-to-book at 1.75 remains above the industry peer mean (0.84) and median (0.86). Price-to-sales at 6.92 sits above the industry peer mean (4.64) and median (4.16). Enterprise multiple registers 35.33, above the industry peer mean (26.55). Those multiple levels coincide with a low free cash flow yield and modest cash conversion, pressuring the equity valuation.

Operational Efficiency: Asset turnover equals 0.141, slightly above the industry peer mean (0.110), while inventory turnover at 1.46 lags peer turnover levels. Cash conversion cycle equals 83.89 days, above the industry peer mean (20.02 days), reflecting longer working-capital conversion.

Valuation Conclusion: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. High P/E and price multiples, very low free cash flow yield, and only modest margin expansion underpin that valuation assessment despite strong interest coverage and positive earnings growth.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 51.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow 93.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -71.47 M
 Change In Working Capital -82.86 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 17.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 68.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 855.5 M
 Forward Revenue 215.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 628.9 M
 Depreciation 65.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 65.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 725.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 226.5 M
 EBITDA 202.3 M
 EBIT 136.7 M
 Operating Income 130.2 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 12.7 M
 Net Interest Income -12.73 M
 Income Before Tax 123.9 M
 Tax Provision 29.6 M
 Tax Rate 23.845 %
 Net Income 94.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 94.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.63
 EPS Actual 1.67
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 2.454 %
 Forward EPS 1.70
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.1 B
 Intangible Assets 471.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 2.9 B
 Total Current Assets 1.2 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 68.4 M
 Cash 68.4 M
 Net Receivables 564.2 M
 Inventory 426.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 131.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 250.1 M
 Short-Term Debt 6.4 M
 Total Current Liabilities 679.5 M
 Net Debt 1.0 B
 Total Debt 1.3 B
 Total Liabilities 2.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.4 B
 Retained Earnings 3.1 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 60.11
 Shares Outstanding 56.052 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.18
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.9 B
 Enterprise Value 7.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 35.326
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -10.334 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -3.913 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 88.536
KEX: 35.326
mean: 26.548
median: 20.602
low: -3.256
 EV/R 8.355
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.795
 Asset To Liability 2.26
 Debt To Capital 0.277
 Debt To Assets 0.213
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.301 %
Debt To Assets YoY 13851.634 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.804
median: 0.425
mean: 0.356
KEX: 0.213
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.383
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.463 %
Debt To Equity YoY 13829.818 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.792
mean: 0.734
median: 0.564
KEX: 0.383
low: 0.001
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.747
Price To Book QoQ 2.821 %
Price To Book YoY -15.914 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 1.996
KEX: 1.747
median: 0.86
mean: 0.837
low: 0.004
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 67.331
Price To Earnings QoQ -10.662 %
Price To Earnings YoY -17.572 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 158.195
KEX: 67.331
mean: 32.1
median: 19.107
low: -103.444
 PE/G Ratio 2.634
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.918
Price To Sales QoQ -3.806 %
Price To Sales YoY -15.822 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 10.636
KEX: 6.918
mean: 4.642
median: 4.157
low: 0.295
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 63.6
Forward PE/G 2.488
Forward P/S 27.265
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.617
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.141
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.827 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -0.12 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.184
KEX: 0.141
mean: 0.11
median: 0.103
low: 0.03
 Receivables Turnover 1.599
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.315 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.685 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 12.247
mean: 5.247
median: 5.011
KEX: 1.599
low: 1.433
 Inventory Turnover 1.461
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.069 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 6.181 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.122
mean: 3.957
median: 2.946
low: 2.224
KEX: 1.461
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 57.06
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 83.889
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 3.845 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -4.57 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA KEX: 83.889
high: 65.913
median: 24.465
mean: 20.02
low: -8.255
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.692
 CapEx To Revenue -0.084
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.088
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 4.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 4.5 B
 Invested Capital 4.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.9 B
 Net Working Capital 505.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.101
 Current Ratio 1.744
Current Ratio QoQ 10.534 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.351 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.4
mean: 2.195
KEX: 1.744
median: 1.605
low: 0.301
 Quick Ratio 1.117
Quick Ratio QoQ 16.86 %
Quick Ratio YoY 5.993 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 7.35
mean: 2.549
median: 1.638
KEX: 1.117
low: 0.814
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 6.415
 Cost Of Debt 0.752 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.735
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 2.016 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 11.35 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 14.48
KEX: 10.735
mean: 2.596
median: 1.041
low: -1.662
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.129
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 41.36
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.087 %
 Revenue Growth 8.884 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -527.938 %
Revenue Growth YoY 338.5 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 60.859 %
KEX: 8.884 %
median: 6.202 %
mean: 0.529 %
low: -51.169 %
 Earnings Growth 25.564 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 724.379 %
Earnings Growth YoY 26.755 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 57.143 %
KEX: 25.564 %
mean: -51.044 %
median: -62.025 %
low: -257.143 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 26.483 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.727 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.631 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 63.912 %
KEX: 26.483 %
mean: 23.81 %
median: 21.686 %
low: 5.7 %
 EBIT Margin 15.975 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 13.194 %
EBIT Margin YoY 6.564 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 59.111 %
mean: 17.252 %
KEX: 15.975 %
median: 14.859 %
low: -49.257 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 15.215 %
Return On Sales QoQ 7.808 %
Return On Sales YoY 1.494 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 58.32 %
KEX: 15.215 %
mean: 14.08 %
median: 12.727 %
low: -11.616 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 22.4 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.379 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -150.804 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -71.716 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 22.162 %
mean: 4.13 %
median: 3.656 %
KEX: 0.379 %
low: -16.024 %
 Free Cash Growth -153.265 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 19.772 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -233.436 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 193.643 %
mean: -106.214 %
KEX: -153.265 %
median: -166.296 %
low: -375.872 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.238
 Cash Flow Margin 10.248 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.93
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.559 %
Return On Assets QoQ 21.702 %
Return On Assets YoY 8.189 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.556 %
KEX: 1.559 %
mean: 0.723 %
median: 0.202 %
low: -5.502 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.53 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.028
Return On Equity QoQ 21.794 %
Return On Equity YoY 8.246 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.074
KEX: 0.028
median: 0.007
mean: -0.007
low: -0.095
 DuPont ROE 2.808 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.31 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 21.26 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -101.099 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 4.186 %
KEX: 2.31 %
median: 1.823 %
mean: 1.551 %
low: -1.131 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term momentum shows mixed signals that favor a corrective consolidation. MACD’s recent cross above its signal line and a negative MRO that has peaked and reversed point toward a possible mean-reversion rally if momentum gains follow-through. Offsetting that potential, DI+ registered a peak & reversal while DI- showed a peak & reversal within a strong ADX regime, and price trades below short- and long-term averages with RSI declining at 36.13—conditions that permit further downside if the MACD move fails to accelerate.

Expect price to trade inside the $80–$90 technical band over the next six weeks unless momentum broadens. A sustained move back above the 20‑day average ($84.02) with expanding volume would confirm momentum pickup; persistent trading beneath the 26‑day EMA ($86.83) and SuperTrend upper ($87.10) would reinforce corrective bias. Monitor liquidity signals and MRO behavior for potential re-acceleration, while valuation metrics suggest limited upside without multiple compression or improved free cash flow generation.

About Kirby Corporation

Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX), based in Houston, Texas, commands a significant presence in the marine transportation and distribution services sector throughout the United States. Since its inception in 1921, Kirby has developed a robust reputation for transporting bulk liquid products safely and efficiently. The company’s Marine Transportation segment operates an extensive fleet, comprising over 1,000 inland tank barges and nearly 300 towboats, traversing key waterways like the Mississippi River System and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. Kirby transports a variety of products, including petrochemicals, refined petroleum, black oils, and agricultural chemicals, ensuring essential goods reach their destinations both coastwise and offshore. In addition to marine logistics, Kirby’s Distribution and Services segment delivers aftermarket support and genuine parts for engines and industrial equipment. The company provides a wide range of services, such as equipment rentals, component rebuilding, and the manufacturing of specialized oilfield and electrical equipment. Kirby caters to a diverse customer base, including industrial firms, the U.S. government, and recreational vessel operators. With a steadfast commitment to quality and innovation, Kirby Corporation continues to prioritize safety, reliability, and customer satisfaction in both the marine and industrial sectors.



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