Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR) Positions For Near-Term Cash-Return Acceleration After Guidance Increase

Permian Resources Corporation registers strengthened cash generation and confirmed dividend policy while technical momentum favors downside pressure; fundamentals present strong operating profitability but constrained free cash flow. Near-term bias balances dividend support and potential supply from recent equity moves.

Recent News

07/14/2025: Company announced second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call for results to be released August 6, 2025. 08/06/2025: Permian Resources reported strong Q2 2025 results, raised full-year production guidance, reported $1.0 billion cash from operations, adjusted free cash flow of $312 million, and declared a base dividend of $0.15 per share. 08/06/2025: Board set dividend payable September 30, 2025 to holders of record September 16, 2025. 09/15/2025: Affiliates of Pearl Energy Investments and Riverstone commenced a secondary public offering of Class A common shares; the company will not receive proceeds. 09/19/2025: Scotiabank initiated coverage with a Sector Outperform recommendation and published an analyst price forecast.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 20.65 registers an emerging trend in strength, suggesting technical signals warrant attention but do not show an extended directional regime; this moderates near-term conviction around big directional moves.

Directional indicators show bearish orientation: DI+ reads 15.27 following a peak-and-reverse while DI– registers 26.05 after a dip-and-reversal, which together indicate increasing downside pressure and a shift toward sellers—this pressure weighs on short-term price bias relative to the current valuation.

MACD stands negative at -0.17 with a peak-and-reverse profile and sits below its signal line (-0.06), indicating bearish momentum that reinforces downward pressure on the close-to-term price path.

MRO at -9.15 places the market price below the model target, implying mean-reversion potential that could support intermittent upward moves; that potential must contend with prevailing bearish momentum from trend indicators when assessing near-term price behavior.

RSI at 46.75 recorded a peak-and-reverse and signals a shift toward bearish momentum from prior strength, consistent with MACD and directional indicators and implying limited upward conviction until momentum indicators recover.

Price structure shows the close at $12.38 beneath the 200-day average ($13.36) and below the Ichimoku Senkou cloud (Senkou A $13.43 / Senkou B $13.77), placing price within a technically subordinate position with the SuperTrend upper band at $13.62 acting as a proximate resistance. Short-term averages (20-day $13.28; 12-day EMA $13.16) trended off recent peaks, reinforcing the near-term downside bias even as Bollinger bands compress near the lower band—volatility contraction may precede directional resolution.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability places the company above many peers: EBIT registers $378,117,000 and an EBIT margin of 31.57%, above the industry peer mean of 17.16% and above the industry peer median of 13.65%. Operating margin measures 32.78%, also above the industry peer mean of 13.87%, underscoring efficient operations relative to peer averages and supporting a premium valuation context.

Revenue and earnings trends reflect recent declines and quarter-to-quarter variability: YoY revenue growth registered -53.40% while QoQ revenue growth came in at -309.55%, and EBIT margin moved -22.75% QoQ and -14.79% YoY, indicating material variability in top-line and margin performance that constrains stable cash conversion despite strong margins on reported periods.

Cash flow and capital deployment show heavy reinvestment: operating cash flow totaled $1,038,696,000 while capital expenditures reached -$1,123,312,000, producing free cash flow of -$84,616,000 and a negative free cash flow yield of -0.88%; the negative free cash conversion ratio (-176.15%) highlights that capex absorbed operational cash and weighs on distributable cash despite a declared $0.15 quarterly base dividend.

Leverage and liquidity present a mixed profile: net debt stands at $3,546,479,000 with debt-to-EBITDA at 4.69 and debt-to-assets at 23.70%, roughly in line with the industry peer mean debt-to-assets of 23.61%; the current ratio at 0.63 falls below the industry peer mean of 1.20, indicating tighter near-term liquidity cushions.

Valuation signals show elevated multiples versus fundamentals: trailing PE stands at 50.40, slightly below the industry peer mean of 52.00 but above the industry peer median of 48.38; price-to-sales at 7.99 exceeds the industry peer mean of 6.05 while price-to-book at 1.01 sits below the industry peer mean of 1.55. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of high multiples and constrained free cash flow.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 702.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.0 B
 Capital Expenditures -1.12 B
 Change In Working Capital 221.7 M
 Dividends Paid -105.71 M
 Cash Flow Delta -251.23 M
 End Period Cash Flow 451.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.2 B
 Forward Revenue 385.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 750.1 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 805.0 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 447.5 M
 EBITDA 884.5 M
 EBIT 378.1 M
 Operating Income 392.6 M
 Interest Income -2.16 M
 Interest Expense 70.6 M
 Net Interest Income -72.77 M
 Income Before Tax 307.5 M
 Tax Provision 62.5 M
 Tax Rate 20.32 %
 Net Income 207.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 245.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.27
 EPS Actual 0.27
 EPS Difference 0.00
 EPS Surprise -1.12 %
 Forward EPS 0.38
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 17.5 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 9.5 B
 Total Current Assets 1.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 451.0 M
 Cash 451.0 M
 Net Receivables 1.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 171.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 93.9 M
 Short-Term Debt 286.1 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.8 B
 Net Debt 3.5 B
 Total Debt 4.1 B
 Total Liabilities 6.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 9.5 B
 Retained Earnings 1.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 13.49
 Shares Outstanding 701.276 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.71
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 9.6 B
 Enterprise Value 13.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 14.997
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 24.396 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 29.767 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.659
mean: 30.404
median: 28.835
PR: 14.997
low: -7.608
 EV/R 11.076
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.85
 Asset To Liability 2.655
 Debt To Capital 0.305
 Debt To Assets 0.237
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.501 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6830.994 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.609
PR: 0.237
mean: 0.236
median: 0.212
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.438
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.897 %
Debt To Equity YoY 6848.336 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.807
mean: 0.726
median: 0.442
PR: 0.438
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.012
Price To Book QoQ 4.908 %
Price To Book YoY -17.692 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.756
median: 1.768
mean: 1.554
PR: 1.012
low: 0.005
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 50.401
Price To Earnings QoQ 73.343 %
Price To Earnings YoY 19.384 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 185.623
mean: 52.0
PR: 50.401
median: 48.382
low: -96.671
 PE/G Ratio -1.305
 Price To Sales (P/S) 7.99
Price To Sales QoQ 21.529 %
Price To Sales YoY -2.947 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.921
PR: 7.99
mean: 6.051
median: 5.84
low: 0.012
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 35.041
Forward PE/G -0.907
Forward P/S 24.843
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.524
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.069
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -14.501 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -15.243 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.422
median: 0.165
mean: 0.154
PR: 0.069
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 1032.41
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 197.471 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 52.697 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA PR: 1032.41
high: 5.091
mean: 1.935
median: 1.804
low: 0.322
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 0.088
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -1.761
 CapEx To Revenue -0.938
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 13.2 B
 Net Invested Capital 13.5 B
 Invested Capital 13.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 9.5 B
 Net Working Capital -679.88 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.247
 Current Ratio 0.628
Current Ratio QoQ -26.595 %
Current Ratio YoY 26.892 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.453
median: 1.249
mean: 1.2
PR: 0.628
low: 0.329
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 4.688
 Cost Of Debt 1.356 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.355
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -31.753 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -18.219 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 22.447
mean: 6.964
median: 6.558
PR: 5.355
low: -20.714
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.116
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 11.846
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.96
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.51
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.011
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.448 %
 Revenue Growth -12.994 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -309.547 %
Revenue Growth YoY -5339.516 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.755 %
median: -3.774 %
mean: -4.996 %
PR: -12.994 %
low: -35.032 %
 Earnings Growth -38.636 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -174.696 %
Earnings Growth YoY 170.447 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.222 %
median: -21.739 %
mean: -23.626 %
PR: -38.636 %
low: -180.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 37.363 %
Gross Margin QoQ -23.92 %
Gross Margin YoY -24.449 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.166 %
PR: 37.363 %
mean: 24.847 %
median: 22.581 %
low: -39.892 %
 EBIT Margin 31.573 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -22.753 %
EBIT Margin YoY -14.785 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.08 %
PR: 31.573 %
mean: 17.163 %
median: 13.652 %
low: -39.515 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 32.779 %
Return On Sales QoQ -19.803 %
Return On Sales YoY -11.53 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 90.781 %
PR: 32.779 %
mean: 13.866 %
median: 11.212 %
low: -39.515 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -84.62 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.884 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -122.211 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -135.502 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.634 %
median: 1.276 %
mean: 1.269 %
PR: -0.884 %
low: -11.931 %
 Free Cash Growth -123.49 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1464.681 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -115.311 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.833 %
mean: -15.91 %
median: -24.008 %
PR: -123.49 %
low: -616.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.408
 Cash Flow Margin 17.752 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.026
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.198 %
Return On Assets QoQ -38.216 %
Return On Assets YoY -22.309 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.797 %
PR: 1.198 %
mean: 1.197 %
median: 0.982 %
low: -3.385 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.414 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.022
Return On Equity QoQ -37.589 %
Return On Equity YoY -22.258 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.111
mean: 0.029
median: 0.027
PR: 0.022
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 2.198 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.239 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -33.064 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -99.97 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.932 %
mean: 2.635 %
median: 2.373 %
PR: 2.239 %
low: -4.078 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum points to near-term downside pressure, while the company’s recent guidance raise, declared dividend, and operational metrics provide fundamental support that could blunt declines. Secondary share supply from the announced offering and continued negative free cash flow create a bias toward episodic selling pressure, and MACD, DI+/DI–, and RSI favor bearish swing trades. Countervailing mean-reversion potential from a negative MRO and compressed Bollinger bands suggests tactical bounces remain possible; watch resolution of price through $13.60–$13.80 as a key structural area that would shift short-term conviction toward recovery or confirm further weakness.

About Permian Resources Corporation

Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR) develops and produces crude oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves within the United States. The company concentrates its efforts on the Delaware Basin, a significant sub-basin of the Permian Basin, which spans across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Permian Resources manages extensive acreage blocks in key locations such as Eddy County and Lea County in New Mexico, as well as West Texas. Originally incorporated in 2015 under the name Centennial Resource Development, Inc., the company rebranded to its current name in September 2022. Headquartered in Midland, Texas, Permian Resources leverages its strategic positioning and expertise to optimize production and enhance resource recovery in one of the most prolific hydrocarbon-producing regions in the country.



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