Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) Shows Bearish Momentum; Near-Term Bounce Likely

Momentum measures favor downside pressure while fundamentals and cash generation support a valuation cushion. Recent headlines center on competitive and regulatory developments that amplified volatility, leaving the stock positioned for a short-term corrective phase followed by mean reversion.

Recent News

On July 12, 2025 reports highlighted a steep weekly decline that left the company among top S&P 500 decliners. Mid-summer coverage documented Federal Housing Finance Agency remarks approving VantageScore 4.0 for certain mortgage use cases and questioning score pricing, a development that triggered material share weakness. Late-September trade-day writeups recorded session-level underperformance versus peers and below-average intraday volume. An August notice reported the Scores business president scheduled to retire in early September.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 19.12 indicates no clear trend strength; directional indicators therefore exert greater influence on short-term bias. DI+ decreased while DI- increased, a bearish directional profile that supports near-term downside pressure against the current valuation backdrop.

MACD shows a peak & reversal with MACD at 11.17 below the signal line at 14.35, signaling a shift toward bearish momentum and reducing immediate upside impetus relative to recent price levels.

MRO stands at -4.5 with a dip & reversal trend; the negative reading implies price sits below the model target and carries scope for mean reversion upward, offering a counterweight to the momentum deterioration noted above.

RSI reads 48.04 with a peak & reversal pattern, placing the oscillator near neutral but tilted toward weakening momentum; that alignment supports a consolidation phase rather than a sustained breakout in either direction.

Price sits at $1,496.53 below the 20-day average ($1,536.18) yet above the 50-day average ($1,464.41); the 12-day EMA shows a peak & reversal. Bollinger bands place the close below the 1x lower band ($1,504.38) but above the 2x lower band ($1,472.58), suggesting short-term oversold conditions with limited volatility expansion. Ichimoku readings place price below Tenkan-sen ($1,531.91) but above Kijun-sen ($1,467.21), reinforcing a mixed short-term bias toward a corrective pullback that may rebound toward short-term averages.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $536,415,000 for the period. YoY revenue growth equals 133.467%, while quarter-over-quarter revenue growth declined by 43.438%, signaling large timing effects across reporting periods. YoY earnings growth registers 443.025% while the shorter-term earningsGrowth metric reads 9.731%.

Earnings per share arrived at $8.57 versus an estimate of $7.70, producing an EPS beat of $0.87 and an EPS surprise of 11.30%. Operating income reached $262,518,000 with EBIT $269,890,000 and an EBIT margin of 50.314%, a value above the industry peer mean of 34.161% and above the industry peer median of 43.473%.

Gross margin measured 83.675% with a YoY improvement of 4.203%. Operating margin reached 48.939% with a YoY increase of 12.867% and negligible quarter change. Cash from operations totaled $286,223,000 and free cash flow registered $276,239,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of 0.73% that sits above the industry peer mean of 0.527%.

Balance-sheet metrics show cash and short-term investments of $189,049,000 alongside net debt of $2,590,505,000 and total equity at negative $1,397,446,000. Debt-to-EBITDA equals 10.23x and debt-to-assets registers 150.41%, both materially above the industry peer mean debt/asset reading of 16.118%; leverage therefore presents an elevated coverage and solvency consideration despite a comfortable interest coverage ratio of 8.20x. Return on assets equals 9.832% (above the industry peer mean of 3.639%), while return on equity reads -13.009% (below the industry peer mean of 7.082%), driven principally by negative total equity.

Valuation multiples show a trailing P/E of 202.14, forward P/E near 200.06, a price-to-sales ratio of 70.50, and an enterprise multiple of 147.62. Those multiples reflect strong expected growth and current market pricing dynamics. WMDST values the stock as under-valued given cash flow generation, high margins, and the balance of elevated leverage and market multiple compression.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow $ 146.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow $ 286.2 M
 Capital Expenditures $ -9.98 M
 Change In Working Capital $ 67.2 M
 Dividends Paid —
 Cash Flow Delta $ 42.4 M
 End Period Cash Flow $ 189.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue $ 536.4 M
 Forward Revenue $ 165.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue $ 87.6 M
 Depreciation $ 4.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization $ 4.0 M
 Research and Development $ 47.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses $ 273.9 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit $ 448.8 M
 EBITDA $ 273.9 M
 EBIT $ 269.9 M
 Operating Income $ 262.5 M
 Interest Income —
 Interest Expense $ 32.9 M
 Net Interest Income $ -32.90 M
 Income Before Tax $ 237.0 M
 Tax Provision $ 55.2 M
 Tax Rate 23.3 %
 Net Income $ 181.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations $ 181.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 7.70
 EPS Actual $ 8.57
 EPS Difference $ 0.87
 EPS Surprise 11.299 %
 Forward EPS $ 9.29
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets $ 1.9 B
 Intangible Assets $ 785.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets $ -2.18 B
 Total Current Assets $ 709.8 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments $ 189.0 M
 Cash $ 189.0 M
 Net Receivables $ 454.1 M
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments $ 121.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable $ 29.3 M
 Short-Term Debt $ 399.3 M
 Total Current Liabilities $ 770.6 M
 Net Debt $ 2.6 B
 Total Debt $ 2.8 B
 Total Liabilities $ 3.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity $ -1.40 B
 Retained Earnings $ 4.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share $ -57.41
 Shares Outstanding 24.096 M
 Revenue Per-Share $ 22.04
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization $ 37.8 B
 Enterprise Value $ 40.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 147.617
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -23.841 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -17.549 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 634.148
FICO: 147.617
mean: 90.868
median: 82.154
low: -577.222
 EV/R 75.367
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity -1.332
 Asset To Liability 0.571
 Debt To Capital 1.996
 Debt To Assets 1.504
Debt To Assets QoQ 8.323 %
Debt To Assets YoY 17030.979 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA FICO: 1.504
high: 1.095
mean: 0.161
median: 0.098
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity -2.004
Debt To Equity QoQ -11.622 %
Debt To Equity YoY 10978.718 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.008
mean: 0.299
median: 0.176
low: -0.874
FICO: -2.004
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) -27.061
Price To Book QoQ -33.337 %
Price To Book YoY -36.95 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 34.07
mean: 12.068
median: 10.727
low: -16.218
FICO: -27.061
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 202.138
Price To Earnings QoQ -15.748 %
Price To Earnings YoY -12.813 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 564.562
FICO: 202.138
mean: 138.69
median: 130.187
low: -357.639
 PE/G Ratio 20.773
 Price To Sales (P/S) 70.498
Price To Sales QoQ -22.945 %
Price To Sales YoY -11.298 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 113.355
FICO: 70.498
median: 48.199
mean: 45.53
low: 1.219
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 200.055
Forward PE/G 20.559
Forward P/S 226.633
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.381
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.29
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.036 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.517 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.416
FICO: 0.29
median: 0.129
mean: 0.129
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 1.133
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.168 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 14.716 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.366
mean: 1.423
median: 1.257
FICO: 1.133
low: 0.131
 Inventory Turnover —
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY —
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 80.518
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA —
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -8.828
 CapEx To Revenue -0.019
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.508
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital $ 982.8 M
 Net Invested Capital $ 1.4 B
 Invested Capital $ 1.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ -2.18 B
 Net Working Capital $ -60.76 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.245
 Current Ratio 0.921
Current Ratio QoQ -56.384 %
Current Ratio YoY -50.783 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.787
mean: 1.699
median: 1.353
FICO: 0.921
low: 0.079
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.226
 Cost Of Debt 0.943 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 8.204
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 5.327 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 13.507 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 181.115
median: 54.034
mean: 37.966
FICO: 8.204
low: -372.737
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.298
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 27.8
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio —
 Dividend Payout Ratio —
 Dividend Rate —
 Dividend Yield —
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.431 %
 Revenue Growth 7.555 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -43.438 %
Revenue Growth YoY 133.467 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 32.808 %
median: 9.099 %
FICO: 7.555 %
mean: 6.942 %
low: -21.897 %
 Earnings Growth 9.731 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -72.108 %
Earnings Growth YoY 443.025 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 157.143 %
FICO: 9.731 %
median: 5.491 %
mean: 4.747 %
low: -200.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 83.675 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.51 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.203 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 91.297 %
FICO: 83.675 %
mean: 72.259 %
median: 68.585 %
low: 33.069 %
 EBIT Margin 50.314 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 2.675 %
EBIT Margin YoY 16.038 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 74.313 %
FICO: 50.314 %
median: 43.473 %
mean: 34.161 %
low: -124.558 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 48.939 %
Return On Sales QoQ -0.131 %
Return On Sales YoY 12.867 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.082 %
FICO: 48.939 %
median: 44.901 %
mean: 33.929 %
low: -115.372 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ 276.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.73 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 406.944 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 26.298 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 6.936 %
FICO: 0.73 %
median: 0.694 %
mean: 0.527 %
low: -13.154 %
 Free Cash Growth 321.797 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -595.492 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 37.617 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA FICO: 321.797 %
high: 207.215 %
median: 25.957 %
mean: 12.174 %
low: -316.997 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.52
 Cash Flow Margin 42.781 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.262
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added $ 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 9.832 %
Return On Assets QoQ 7.091 %
Return On Assets YoY 32.847 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 14.05 %
FICO: 9.832 %
median: 4.609 %
mean: 3.639 %
low: -24.058 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 24.728 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.13
Return On Equity QoQ -10.078 %
Return On Equity YoY -14.549 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.214
median: 0.079
mean: 0.071
FICO: -0.13
low: -0.337
 DuPont ROE -14.419 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 14.979 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 12.794 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -114.41 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA FICO: 14.979 %
high: 13.859 %
median: 7.176 %
mean: 5.441 %
low: -13.655 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound trading punctuated by corrective pressure. Directional indicators and MACD favor near-term downside, while MRO and positioning near the lower Bollinger band leave room for a technical rebound toward the 20-day average. Low ADX suggests moves may lack trend follow-through, producing choppy intraday swings and mean reversion opportunities. Elevated leverage and negative equity increase sensitivity to headline risk; any regulatory or market-share developments could accelerate volatility. Traders should plan for sideways-to-down price action with episodic bounces to short-term moving averages rather than an immediate trend change.

About Fair Isaac Corporation

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) designs analytics and decision management software solutions, empowering organizations to make data-driven decisions. Established in 1956 and headquartered in Bozeman, Montana, FICO operates through two main segments: Scores and Software. The Scores segment develops predictive credit scoring solutions, crucial for financial decision-making by businesses and consumers. Through platforms like myFICO.com, consumers access insights into their credit health, while businesses integrate these scores into their operations for better decision-making. In the Software segment, FICO delivers advanced analytic and decision management tools tailored to diverse business needs. The company’s offerings include solutions for fraud detection, customer engagement, marketing strategies, and account origination. Key products such as the FICO Platform, FICO Blaze Advisor, and FICO Xpress Optimization enhance operational efficiency and strategic outcomes. FICO maintains a strong presence across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific, continually transforming data into actionable intelligence to drive client success globally.



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