SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) Shows Weak Momentum Ahead Of Near-Term Consolidation

SPS Commerce registers technical weakness and valuation pressure heading into the next six weeks, with fundamentals showing modest growth but stretched multiples. Recent corporate events create informational catalysts while price action favors range-bound behavior with limited upside.

Recent News

On August 18, 2025 the company increased its board size and appointed Mark Partin as a director, effective the same date, per the Form 8‑K. On August 28, 2025 management announced a presentation at Citi’s Global TMT Conference scheduled for September 4, 2025. On September 9, 2025 the company announced an Investor Day for September 23, 2025; materials and a webcast accompanied the event on September 23.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 13.35 signals no trend and supports a consolidation bias; the lack of a strong directional trend magnifies the impact of overvaluation on price pressure.

DI+ shows a peak & reversal, which signals waning upside momentum; DI- shows a peak & reversal, which signals easing selling pressure. Together these readings imply reduced directional conviction and favor sideways-to-lower price action against the current valuation.

MACD shows a peak & reversal, indicating bearish momentum with MACD at -2.44. The MACD sits above its signal line (-2.58), producing a bullish crossover that may generate a short-lived bounce, but the negative MACD level keeps the heavier momentum bias to the downside relative to fair value.

MRO sits at -22.71 with a dip & reversal, which places the market price materially below the model target and indicates upward mean-reversion potential; that potential must contend with the over‑valued headline and weak momentum signals.

RSI at 41.74 with a peak & reversal points toward bearish pressure rather than bullish continuation; the reading aligns with the EMA and moving-average spreads that follow.

Price trades below short- and medium-term averages: close $104.14 below the 20-day average $107.20, below the 26-day EMA $109.15 and the 50-day average $113.49, while the 200-day average sits at $141.58. The 12-day EMA shows a decreasing trend, reinforcing short-term downside bias into the resistance band formed by the 20-day and 26-day averages.

Bollinger structure places the close just beneath the lower 1x standard-deviation band at $104.76 and above the lower 2x band at $102.31, implying limited immediate downside before support near the lower band; average volumes sit near the 10-day mean, suggesting no surge in conviction from buyers or sellers during the recent move.

Ichimoku components (Tenkan $108.42; Kijun $110.42; Senkou A $115.93; Senkou B $124.83) position the cloud above price and act as layered resistance, magnifying the short-term technical barrier to recovery given the present valuation level.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue reached $187.4M for the period ending 2025-06-30, with YoY revenue growth at 19.90% and quarterly revenue growth at -48.24% QoQ. Recurring revenue growth figures appeared in the company releases for the quarter but revenue growth dynamics show meaningful seasonality across periods.

Operating income (EBIT) measures $26,470,000 and operating margin stands at 14.13%, which trails the industry peer mean of 29.30% and the industry peer median of 48.39%. Operating margin fell -1.20% QoQ and declined -6.35% YoY, indicating margin compression versus the prior year baseline.

Net income totaled $19,733,000 and EPS registered $1.00 versus an estimate of $0.91, producing an EPS surprise of +9.9% relative to consensus. Free cash flow amounted to $25,658,000 with free cash flow yield at 0.54%, below the industry peer mean of 1.56%, though free cash flow increased YoY by 57.27%.

Return metrics read modest: return on equity 2.08% and return on assets 1.77%, both below typical software peer averages, while interest coverage exceeds 20x and net debt remains minimal (total debt $10,798,000), providing balance-sheet flexibility despite lower profitability ratios.

Valuation multiples sit at elevated levels versus fundamentals: trailing P/E at 139.84 and forward P/E near 144.60, while price-to-book stands at 4.99 versus an industry peer mean of 8.88 and median of 8.61. Price-to-sales measures 25.30. The forward revenue estimate sits at $87.80M in the near term per the model inputs. WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on the combination of stretched multiples and the company’s current margin and return profile.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-23
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 94.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow 32.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.67 M
 Change In Working Capital -17.81 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 12.7 M
 End Period Cash Flow 107.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 187.4 M
 Forward Revenue 87.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 59.8 M
 Depreciation 5.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 14.5 M
 Research and Development 17.3 M
 Total Operating Expenses 160.9 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 127.6 M
 EBITDA 41.0 M
 EBIT 26.5 M
 Operating Income 26.5 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax 27.2 M
 Tax Provision 7.5 M
 Tax Rate 27.567 %
 Net Income 19.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 19.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.91
 EPS Actual 1.00
 EPS Difference 0.09
 EPS Surprise 9.89 %
 Forward EPS 0.97
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.1 B
 Intangible Assets 780.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 169.2 M
 Total Current Assets 269.4 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 107.6 M
 Cash 107.6 M
 Net Receivables 67.5 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 1.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 11.6 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 148.0 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 10.8 M
 Total Liabilities 171.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 949.8 M
 Retained Earnings 378.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 24.99
 Shares Outstanding 37.927 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.93
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.7 B
 Enterprise Value 4.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 113.377
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -16.414 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -45.668 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 887.98
mean: 126.334
SPSC: 113.377
median: 44.04
low: -352.026
 EV/R 24.787
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.18
 Asset To Liability 6.544
 Debt To Capital 0.011
 Debt To Assets 0.01
Debt To Assets QoQ -12.929 %
Debt To Assets YoY -10.419 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.9
median: 0.194
mean: 0.166
SPSC: 0.01
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.011
Debt To Equity QoQ -14.64 %
Debt To Equity YoY -12.94 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.537
median: 0.352
mean: 0.299
SPSC: 0.011
low: 0.005
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.993
Price To Book QoQ -15.492 %
Price To Book YoY -50.423 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.162
mean: 8.877
median: 8.605
SPSC: 4.993
low: 0.647
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 139.843
Price To Earnings QoQ -2.324 %
Price To Earnings YoY -41.429 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 366.06
SPSC: 139.843
mean: 111.062
median: 53.265
low: -119.25
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 25.303
Price To Sales QoQ -15.565 %
Price To Sales YoY -45.135 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 55.452
mean: 29.028
SPSC: 25.303
median: 22.334
low: 1.118
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 144.598
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 53.905
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 0.614
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.168
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.937 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -7.303 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.375
median: 0.227
mean: 0.192
SPSC: 0.168
low: 0.017
 Receivables Turnover 2.863
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.982 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 0.226 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.025
SPSC: 2.863
mean: 1.455
median: 1.352
low: 0.22
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 31.87
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.544
 CapEx To Revenue -0.036
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.335
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 949.8 M
 Net Invested Capital 949.8 M
 Invested Capital 949.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 169.2 M
 Net Working Capital 121.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.727
 Current Ratio 1.821
Current Ratio QoQ 10.909 %
Current Ratio YoY -42.493 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.752
SPSC: 1.821
mean: 1.631
median: 1.447
low: 0.894
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.264
 Cost Of Debt 8.016 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 20.745
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 1.98 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 14.267 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 220.0
median: 62.533
mean: 38.569
SPSC: 20.745
low: -23.112
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.206
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 18.325
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.087 %
 Revenue Growth 3.223 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -48.242 %
Revenue Growth YoY 19.903 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 20.331 %
mean: 4.94 %
median: 3.532 %
SPSC: 3.223 %
low: 0.527 %
 Earnings Growth 0.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Earnings Growth YoY -100.0 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 23.034 %
median: 16.146 %
mean: 7.89 %
SPSC: 0.0 %
low: -150.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 68.076 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.838 %
Gross Margin YoY 2.938 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.916 %
median: 84.601 %
mean: 80.179 %
SPSC: 68.076 %
low: 42.327 %
 EBIT Margin 14.125 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -1.203 %
EBIT Margin YoY -6.345 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 48.388 %
median: 48.388 %
mean: 29.297 %
SPSC: 14.125 %
low: -30.992 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 14.125 %
Return On Sales QoQ -1.203 %
Return On Sales YoY -6.345 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 48.388 %
median: 48.388 %
mean: 29.009 %
SPSC: 14.125 %
low: -80.448 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 25.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.541 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -13.023 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 57.267 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.36 %
median: 2.518 %
mean: 1.563 %
SPSC: 0.541 %
low: -1.991 %
 Free Cash Growth -24.163 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 1511.941 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 19.993 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 320.039 %
median: 320.039 %
mean: 146.255 %
SPSC: -24.163 %
low: -118.823 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.3
 Cash Flow Margin 16.254 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.544
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.77 %
Return On Assets QoQ -14.658 %
Return On Assets YoY -16.823 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 8.261 %
median: 8.261 %
mean: 4.735 %
SPSC: 1.77 %
low: -13.869 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.72 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ -13.776 %
Return On Equity YoY -18.923 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.292
median: 0.14
mean: 0.088
SPSC: 0.021
low: -0.177
 DuPont ROE 2.11 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.019 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -9.095 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -134.548 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.885 %
median: 10.885 %
mean: 6.239 %
SPSC: 2.019 %
low: -15.042 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound action with downside vulnerability: technical indicators favor consolidation near recent lows while the over‑valued fundamental picture limits sustainable upside. Short-term bounces may occur given MRO-driven mean-reversion potential and occasional bullish MACD crossovers, but those rallies will likely meet resistance at the short- to mid-term averages. Watch for stabilization of momentum indicators and movement of price back above the 20-day and 26-day averages before any shift in the near-term directional bias becomes persuasive.

About SPS Commerce, Inc.

SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) delivers cloud-based supply chain management solutions across the globe. The company enhances how retailers, grocers, suppliers, distributors, and logistics firms handle omnichannel orders through its SPS Commerce platform. This platform aids in optimizing sell-through performance and automating new trading relationships. SPS Commerce, Inc. offers Fulfillment, an electronic data interchange solution that adapts to business growth, allowing companies to manage orders and logistics from diverse sales channels such as wholesale, eCommerce, and marketplaces using a single system. Additionally, their Analytics product provides organizations with improved visibility into product sales across various channels, leveraging a combination of analytics applications and industry expertise. SPS Commerce also provides complementary products like Assortment, which facilitates the communication of detailed item data, and Community, which accelerates supply chain digitization and enhances supplier collaboration. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, SPS Commerce, Inc. continues to support businesses in streamlining their supply chain operations.



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