Applied Materials, Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) Navigates China Headwinds While Technical Momentum Favors Further Gains

Applied Materials enters the weeks ahead with a bullish technical backdrop but clear near-term operational risk from China-related demand shifts. Fundamentals show healthy cash generation and above-average returns that underpin a valuation the WMDST model regards as under-valued.

Recent News

In August the company warned about slowing demand and tariff exposure tied to its China business and guided conservatively for the coming quarter; management cited reduced visibility in the policy environment. Analysts followed with mixed reactions: several shops trimmed targets or ratings on China and market-share concerns, while other firms raised outlooks on memory-led demand and upgraded coverage more recently.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show strength: ADX at 36.05 signals a strong underlying trend while DI+ at 43.68 (increasing) paired with DI- at 16.54 (decreasing) indicates the trend direction favors upside relative to recent valuation levels.

MACD sits at 7.58 with the MACD line above the signal line (signal 3.73) and the MACD trend increasing, indicating bullish momentum and continuation pressure that complements the current valuation bias.

MRO registers -2.63 and the MRO trend moves higher; price lies below the intrinsic target implied by the oscillator, implying upward potential as momentum and valuation pressure converge.

RSI at 58.01 and rising shows strengthening buyer control without reaching overbought territory, which supports additional near-term upside while leaving room before momentum exhaustion impacts price versus valuation.

Price structure confirms the technical tilt: last close $204.95 sits above the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages (20-day $186.79, 50-day $177.58, 200-day $168.36) and above the 12-day EMA ($192.15, increasing), reinforcing the bullish bias relative to the displayed valuation. SuperTrend lower band near $194.88 provides a reference support level beneath current price.

Bollinger context shows the close slightly above the 1x upper band ($204.07), consistent with persistent upside pressure; volume sits below the 10-day average but above the 200-day average, indicating selective participation during the move.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT $2,629,000,000 and an EBIT margin of 36.00%, up 6.96% QoQ and up 20.63% YoY, reflect improved operating leverage versus recent quarters; gross margin stands at 48.78% (up 3.16% YoY). The EBIT margin remains below the industry peer mean of 58.47% and below the industry peer median of 66.89%.

Earnings and cash flow: Reported EPS $2.48 versus estimate $2.36 produced an EPS surprise of +5.09%. Operating cash flow $2,634,000,000 and free cash flow $2,050,000,000 translate into a free cash flow yield of 1.48%, above the industry peer mean of 0.40%, and free cash flow growth YoY at 11.02% supports near-term funding flexibility.

Revenue and growth dynamics: Total revenue $7,302,000,000 with YoY revenue growth 43.25% while quarterly revenue registered a QoQ decline of about -4.09%, demonstrating strong year-on-year expansion offset by sequential variability tied to the order cycle and regional demand effects.

Balance sheet and efficiency: Cash and short-term investments $7,014,000,000 and a current ratio of 2.50 provide ample liquidity; net debt stands near $879,000,000 and debt-to-equity about 0.347, modest relative leverage. Cash conversion cycle at 174 days exceeds the industry peer mean of about 70 days, indicating working-capital intensity that requires monitoring.

Return metrics: Return on equity 9.12% exceeds the industry peer mean of 5.15% and the peer high of 8.11%, while return on assets at 5.24% trails the peer mean. Interest coverage near 39.8x affords significant buffer to service debt.

Valuation context: Price multiples show a P/E of 72.32 and forward P/E near 73.41; price-to-book about 7.09, below the industry peer mean of 33.69. Enterprise multiples and forward multiples reflect a disconnect between strong cash generation and elevated headline multiples. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: under-valued, supported primarily by cash flow strength and above-peer free cash flow yield versus several headline multiples that embed near-term growth expectations.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-14
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-12
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 6.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.6 B
 Capital Expenditures -584.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 588.0 M
 Dividends Paid -368.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -790.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 5.5 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 7.3 B
 Forward Revenue 2.0 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.7 B
 Depreciation 113.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 113.0 M
 Research and Development 901.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 5.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 3.6 B
 EBITDA 2.7 B
 EBIT 2.6 B
 Operating Income 2.2 B
 Interest Income 396.0 M
 Interest Expense 66.0 M
 Net Interest Income 330.0 M
 Income Before Tax 2.6 B
 Tax Provision 784.0 M
 Tax Rate 30.6 %
 Net Income 1.8 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.8 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.36
 EPS Actual 2.48
 EPS Difference 0.12
 EPS Surprise 5.085 %
 Forward EPS 2.42
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 34.2 B
 Intangible Assets 4.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 15.5 B
 Total Current Assets 19.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 7.0 B
 Cash 5.4 B
 Net Receivables 5.8 B
 Inventory 5.8 B
 Long-Term Investments 443.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.8 B
 Short-Term Debt 800.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 7.9 B
 Net Debt 879.0 M
 Total Debt 6.8 B
 Total Liabilities 14.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 19.5 B
 Retained Earnings 53.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 24.48
 Shares Outstanding 796.642 M
 Revenue Per-Share 9.17
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 138.4 B
 Enterprise Value 138.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 50.367
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 0.928 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -35.348 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 253.93
mean: 133.819
median: 124.816
AMAT: 50.367
low: -162.64
 EV/R 18.914
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.754
 Asset To Liability 2.326
 Debt To Capital 0.257
 Debt To Assets 0.198
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.323 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6623.81 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.388
AMAT: 0.198
mean: 0.154
median: 0.075
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.347
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.427 %
Debt To Equity YoY 6504.762 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.939
AMAT: 0.347
mean: 0.295
median: 0.106
low: 0.006
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 7.094
Price To Book QoQ 8.048 %
Price To Book YoY -23.195 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 40.244
median: 40.244
mean: 33.687
AMAT: 7.094
low: 1.076
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 72.318
Price To Earnings QoQ 11.422 %
Price To Earnings YoY -27.363 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 193.583
mean: 156.752
median: 114.656
AMAT: 72.318
low: 39.495
 PE/G Ratio 19.203
 Price To Sales (P/S) 18.948
Price To Sales QoQ 8.068 %
Price To Sales YoY -26.194 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 86.209
median: 86.209
mean: 83.671
AMAT: 18.948
low: 5.759
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 73.409
Forward PE/G 19.493
Forward P/S 69.867
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.515
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.215
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.519 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 4.161 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.351
median: 0.351
mean: 0.281
AMAT: 0.215
low: 0.06
 Receivables Turnover 1.221
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.788 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -12.186 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.646
mean: 2.052
median: 1.872
AMAT: 1.221
low: 1.181
 Inventory Turnover 0.653
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.696 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 2.811 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.501
mean: 1.335
median: 0.98
low: 0.699
AMAT: 0.653
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 74.723
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 174.316
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 0.763 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -0.076 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA AMAT: 174.316
high: 148.383
median: 74.714
mean: 70.504
low: 48.418
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.617
 CapEx To Revenue -0.08
 CapEx To Depreciation -5.168
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 25.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 25.8 B
 Invested Capital 25.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 15.5 B
 Net Working Capital 11.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.89
 Current Ratio 2.501
Current Ratio QoQ 1.485 %
Current Ratio YoY -12.536 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.414
median: 4.214
mean: 3.511
AMAT: 2.501
low: 1.497
 Quick Ratio 1.765
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.415 %
Quick Ratio YoY -15.546 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 6.338
median: 3.597
mean: 3.012
AMAT: 1.765
low: 1.366
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.466
 Cost Of Debt 0.682 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 39.833
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 13.333 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 24.048 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 504.323
median: 504.323
mean: 368.285
AMAT: 39.833
low: -17.099
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.269
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 45.082
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 4.834
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.207
 Dividend Rate 0.46
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.722 %
 Revenue Growth 2.845 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -408.903 %
Revenue Growth YoY 43.253 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 11.225 %
mean: 6.199 %
median: 6.085 %
AMAT: 2.845 %
low: -0.283 %
 Earnings Growth 3.766 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 796.667 %
Earnings Growth YoY 162.439 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 114.286 %
median: 29.63 %
mean: 23.694 %
low: 6.962 %
AMAT: 3.766 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 48.781 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.619 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.164 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 72.424 %
median: 72.424 %
mean: 70.649 %
AMAT: 48.781 %
low: 33.677 %
 EBIT Margin 36.004 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 6.957 %
EBIT Margin YoY 20.629 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 66.893 %
median: 66.893 %
mean: 58.467 %
AMAT: 36.004 %
low: -23.022 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 30.581 %
Return On Sales QoQ -9.153 %
Return On Sales YoY 2.459 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 60.843 %
median: 60.843 %
mean: 54.053 %
AMAT: 30.581 %
low: -23.022 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 2.0 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.482 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 73.944 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 23.5 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA AMAT: 1.482 %
high: 0.946 %
mean: 0.398 %
median: 0.334 %
low: 0.05 %
 Free Cash Growth 93.214 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1.918 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 11.015 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 93.897 %
AMAT: 93.214 %
mean: -30.96 %
median: -48.562 %
low: -186.665 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.152
 Cash Flow Margin 29.061 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.193
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 5.244 %
Return On Assets QoQ -17.831 %
Return On Assets YoY 0.885 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 19.867 %
median: 19.867 %
mean: 15.069 %
AMAT: 5.244 %
low: -2.839 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 9.986 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.091
Return On Equity QoQ -19.076 %
Return On Equity YoY 0.785 %
Return On Equity IPRWA AMAT: 0.091
high: 0.081
median: 0.057
mean: 0.051
low: -0.049
 DuPont ROE 9.25 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 7.081 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -18.777 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -136.226 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.618 %
AMAT: 7.081 %
median: 3.471 %
mean: 3.244 %
low: -3.051 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum and trend strength favor continued upside probability over the next six weeks: trend strength (ADX 36.05), DI+ increasing, MACD above its signal line, rising RSI, and price sitting above key moving averages all align with a higher-probability bullish path relative to current valuation. The negative MRO with improving trend indicates price sits below the implied target and could converge higher as momentum persists.

Near-term risks center on demand from China and policy-driven tariff exposure highlighted in recent company commentary and analyst notes; any further guidance deterioration or market-share commentary could trigger rapid reassessment of the valuation premium embedded in multiples. Liquidity and cash-generation metrics provide a cushion, but watch for sequential revenue variability and working-capital developments that would alter fundamental support for the prevailing technical setup.

About Applied Materials, Inc.

Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) delivers materials engineering solutions to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. Based in Santa Clara, California, the company has been a key player in technological advancements since 1967. Applied Materials operates through three main segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display and Adjacent Markets. The Semiconductor Systems segment focuses on developing and manufacturing equipment crucial for producing semiconductor chips and integrated circuits. This includes technologies such as chemical and physical vapor deposition, ion implantation, and atomic layer deposition. The Applied Global Services segment provides solutions that enhance equipment productivity and performance within fabrication facilities. Services include spare parts, equipment upgrades, and factory automation software, enabling clients to optimize operational efficiency and output. The Display and Adjacent Markets segment develops products for display manufacturing, including liquid crystal displays and organic light-emitting diodes. These products support a variety of consumer electronics, from televisions to smartphones. With operations in the United States, Asia, and Europe, Applied Materials plays a significant role in advancing materials engineering, impacting the future of technology across the globe.



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