ALROSA, (MOEX:ALRS) Registers Earnings Surprise But Near-Term Momentum Weakens

ALROSA shows operating resilience after an above-estimate EPS print while technical momentum signals limited upside in the coming weeks. Fundamental cash flow strength and low leverage contrast with soft revenue growth and cooling momentum.

Recent News

On August 12, 2025 ALROSA reported first-half results showing a 25% decline in revenue to 134.3 billion roubles while IFRS net profit rose about 11% to 40.6 billion roubles; the company cited high rates, inflation, and geopolitical pressures and noted proceeds from the sale of its 41% stake in Catoca. In August ALROSA announced field tests beginning in September for a new mobile diamond separator that the company says will boost processing capacity and recovery rates.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 14.26 indicates no established trend and therefore limits conviction behind directional signals; with ADX below 20, price action depends on short-term indicator behavior rather than a sustained trend.

DI+ sits at 24.72 and shows an increasing trajectory, which creates bullish directional pressure; DI- at 18.58 experienced a dip-and-reversal that signals rising negative pressure. With both directional indices moving, directional bias lacks clear dominance and short-term swings will determine breakout potential.

MACD reads 0.16 while the MACD line declines and remains below the signal line at 0.23, producing a bearish momentum profile. The current MACD configuration reduces the likelihood that recent earnings strength immediately translates into sustained upside without a MACD recovery above the signal line.

MRO equals 17.85 and shows a dip-and-reversal; the positive MRO implies price currently sits above the WMDST target and therefore faces downward pressure toward fair value. The magnitude suggests moderate mean-reversion potential rather than extreme re-pricing.

RSI at 53.43 with a decreasing trend indicates momentum slipping from near-midpoint levels; the indicator no longer supports strong continuation and aligns with the soft MACD picture.

Price sits at $22.05 below the 12-day EMA of $22.67, where the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal that signals bearish short-term bias. The stock trades under the 20-day average ($22.77) and roughly in line with the 50-day average ($22.10), while remaining above the 200-day average ($20.48). Price below the 1x Bollinger lower band ($22.40) suggests intraday weakness versus recent volatility bands, and volume at 57,443 trails the 10-day average of 100,589—lower participation weakens conviction for an immediate rebound.

 


Fundamental Analysis

EPS actual reached $0.78 versus an estimate of $0.54, producing an EPS surprise of 44.44%, a substantial beat that supports short-term earnings credibility. Forward EPS equals $0.5325 and forward PE registers 38.36, reflecting higher expected multiple sensitivity to earnings changes.

Total revenue equals $73,855,000 with revenue growth at 8.21% (overall) while quarter-over-quarter revenue growth reads 8.15% and year-over-year revenue growth reads 1.63%. QoQ strength contrasts with modest YoY expansion, indicating recent acceleration without broad top-line momentum across the year.

Operating cash flow reached $10,694,000 and free cash flow equals $7,563,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 1.38% and a cash flow margin of 32.02%. Free cash to net income stands at 37.34%, supporting liquidity and dividend capacity given a dividend payout ratio of 26.34% and a dividend yield of 0.98% (dividend rate $0.21013 per share).

Balance-sheet metrics show total equity of $533,155,000, total debt of $277,143,000 and net debt of $178,222,000. Debt-to-assets equals 5.21% and debt-to-equity equals 51.98%, indicating conservative leverage relative to enterprise scale. Cash on hand measures $80,904,000 while enterprise value tallies $823,711,835 and market capitalization stands at $546,568,835.

Profitability metrics show return on assets at 0.38% and return on equity at 3.80%. Earnings growth registers 50.00% in the reporting period but fell QoQ by -83.33% and YoY by -17.00%, a pattern that pairs volatile short-term swings with weaker year-over-year momentum. Capital expenditures totaled -$3,131,000 while depreciation and amortization totaled $3,773,000, leaving modest net investment activity.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock at a price target mean of $22.48, nearly aligned with the current close of $22.05 and inside the analyst target range ($14.11–$36.24). EVR stands at 11.15 and P/B equals 1.03 with P/E at 27.22, presenting a mixed picture where cash-flow strength and low leverage offset softer revenue trends and elevated forward multiples.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 83.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 10.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -3.13 M
 Change In Working Capital 1.1 M
 Dividends Paid -5.33 M
 Cash Flow Delta -2.08 M
 End Period Cash Flow 80.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 73.9 M
 Forward Revenue 12.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 3.8 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 70.4 M
 Interest Expense 27.4 M
 Net Interest Income 43.0 M
 Income Before Tax 26.4 M
 Tax Provision 6.1 M
 Tax Rate 23.159 %
 Net Income 20.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 20.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.54
 EPS Actual 0.78
 EPS Difference 0.24
 EPS Surprise 44.444 %
 Forward EPS 0.53
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 5.3 B
 Intangible Assets 131.3 M
 Net Tangible Assets 401.9 M
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 80.9 M
 Net Receivables 20.9 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt 200.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 178.2 M
 Total Debt 277.1 M
 Total Liabilities 4.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 533.2 M
 Retained Earnings 296.9 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 21.00
 Shares Outstanding 25.389 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.91
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 546.6 M
 Enterprise Value 823.7 M
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 11.153
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.986
 Asset To Liability 1.111
 Debt To Capital 0.342
 Debt To Assets 0.052
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.135 %
Debt To Assets YoY 13.445 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity 0.52
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.712 %
Debt To Equity YoY -2.995 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.025
Price To Book QoQ 12.243 %
Price To Book YoY 0.223 %
Price To Book IPRWA
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 27.219
Price To Earnings QoQ -23.559 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.287 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio 0.544
 Price To Sales (P/S) 7.401
Price To Sales QoQ 7.546 %
Price To Sales YoY -1.32 %
Price To Sales IPRWA
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 38.359
Forward PE/G 0.767
Forward P/S 44.346
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.014
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.531 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 18.275 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Receivables Turnover 3.569
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.093 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 15.769 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 25.569
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.042
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.83
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 592.3 M
 Net Invested Capital 792.3 M
 Invested Capital 792.3 M
 Net Tangible Assets 401.9 M
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 7.588 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.796
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.263
 Dividend Rate 0.21
 Dividend Yield 0.01
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.296 %
 Revenue Growth 8.208 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 815.05 %
Revenue Growth YoY 1.634 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA
 Earnings Growth 50.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -83.333 %
Earnings Growth YoY -1700.0 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 7.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.384 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 14.855 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -134.826 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth 33.598 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 27.449 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -114.201 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.373
 Cash Flow Margin 32.018 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.168
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.05
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.38 %
Return On Assets QoQ 51.394 %
Return On Assets YoY 165.734 %
Return On Assets IPRWA
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.038
Return On Equity QoQ 46.736 %
Return On Equity YoY 128.443 %
Return On Equity IPRWA
 DuPont ROE 3.867 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should hinge on momentum signals rather than fresh fundamental surprises. Technical momentum currently favors consolidation with slight downward bias: MACD below its signal line and the 12-day EMA peak-and-reversal reduce the probability of a clean breakout. Watch for a MACD recovery above its signal line or a sustained reclaim of the 20-day average on rising volume to re-establish upside potential; conversely, a renewed DI- rise or MRO remaining positive would favor mean-reversion toward the WMDST valuation.

Fundamentally, the EPS beat and strong cash-flow metrics support the stock’s ability to sustain distributions and absorb operational pressure, while revenue softness and a high forward PE leave valuation sensitive to earnings revisions. Expect range-bound to slight downward behavior unless momentum indicators align bullishly with improved volume and recurring revenue evidence.

About ALROSA

Public Joint Stock Company ALROSA (MOEX:ALRS) extracts, processes, and sells rough diamonds. Headquartered in Russia, ALROSA ranks among the world’s leading diamond producers by volume. The company operates mining facilities primarily in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Arkhangelsk region, leveraging advanced technology to enhance efficiency and sustainability in extraction processes. ALROSA’s activities encompass the entire diamond production cycle, from geological exploration and mining to sorting, cutting, and marketing of diamonds. The company supplies rough diamonds to the global market, catering to both industrial and jewelry sectors. ALROSA maintains a robust commitment to environmental and social responsibility, implementing programs that promote sustainable development and community support in the regions of operation. By fostering partnerships with international diamond trading companies, ALROSA enhances its market presence and ensures a steady supply of high-quality diamonds. Through strategic initiatives and technological advancements, ALROSA continues to strengthen its position in the global diamond industry.



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