The Trade Desk, Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) Poised For Near-Term Downside Amid High Valuation

Momentum indicators and moving-average structure signal pressure on the share price while fundamentals show strong margins but valuation metrics sit well above peer averages. Near-term action should track technical support levels and company cash-flow dynamics.

Recent News

On August 8, 2025 the CEO warned that tariff-related uncertainty has weighed on large brand advertisers and the company announced a CFO transition effective August 21, 2025; the update triggered analyst target reductions and a sharp share reaction. Earlier, the company received confirmation of inclusion into the S&P 500 with the effective swap set for mid-July 2025, a move that prompted index-driven buying.

Technical Analysis

ADX stands at 46.06, indicating a very strong trend in place; a very strong ADX amplifies the significance of directional indicator changes and suggests the current price bias can persist in the near term.

DI+ registers 13.51 with a dip & reversal (bullish) and DI– registers 38.99 with a peak & reversal (bullish). Both directional indicators showing reversal behavior implies directional contention has shifted toward a recovery bias, though DI– remains materially higher in absolute terms, which creates asymmetric pressure against a sustained advance.

MACD sits at –4.51 and shows an increasing trend with the MACD line above the signal line (MACD signal –4.97), which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover despite negative absolute MACD; the crossover reduces downside momentum and supports potential short-covering or mean-reversion moves.

MRO at –34.91 places price below the model target and the oscillator’s dip & reversal signals potential upside toward the target level; the negative reading implies scope for price to move higher toward modeled fair-value bands if momentum confirms.

RSI reads 38.02 with a dip & reversal, indicating the indicator trades below neutral and the reversal pattern hints at an emerging bounce rather than sustained strength; RSI behavior aligns with a short-term recovery attempt inside a larger downtrend context.

Price at $46.86 sits below the 200-day average of $78.33 and below the 50-day average of $62.99, while near the 20-day average of $47.30 and under the Ichimoku tenkan/ kijun (Tenkan $48.59, Kijun $49.33); price beneath major longer-term averages implies structural bearish bias, while proximity to short-term averages and the MACD crossover suggest a countertrend rally may occur before any durable trend reversal.

Bollinger bands place price between the 1x lower band ($43.67) and 1x upper band ($50.92), so intraday volatility has compressed; the super trend upper at $49.37 acts as a nearby resistance level to any rally. Volume at 20.0M trails the 10-day average of 26.98M but slightly exceeds the 50-day average, consistent with selective trading interest without broad accumulation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue stands at $694,039,000 with gross profit $543,059,000 and gross margin 78.246%. Operating income / EBIT equals $116,777,000 and EBIT margin equals 16.826%.

EBIT margin QoQ increased by 90.361% and YoY increased by 3.839%. The EBIT margin of 16.8% sits below the industry peer mean of 30.39% and well below the industry peer median of 48.39%, indicating margins lag peer central tendencies despite a high gross margin.

YoY revenue growth reads –33.314% while the unqualified revenue growth figure shows 12.665%; the year-over-year decline on the labeled YoY metric points to recent revenue contraction, whereas the alternate growth figure suggests differing period comparisons—use the YoY revenue growth label of –33.314% for year-over-year assessment.

EPS actual $0.41 matched the estimate $0.41 with an EPS surprise ratio of –0.92%. Forward EPS $0.4825 and forward PE 145.07 reflect elevated forward multiples relative to the forward PE industry mean of 132.98, though forward PE sits within the industry range’s upper half.

Price-to-book at 12.24 exceeds the industry peer mean of 8.44. Price-to-sales at 47.53 also sits above the industry peer mean of 27.02. Free-cash-flow yield equals 0.354% and stands below the industry peer mean of 1.676%, while free cash flow fell QoQ, producing a free cash flow growth decline of –49.188% QoQ. Cash on hand totals $896,387,000 and cash and short-term investments total $1,687,261,000, supporting liquidity.

Leverage remains modest: total debt $343,549,000, debt-to-equity 0.12744, and debt-to-EBITDA 2.39439. Interest coverage 3.19x shows coverage but at a lower level versus many peers. Return on equity 3.343% and return on assets 1.546% indicate muted returns on capital relative to industry peer mean ROE of 9.228%.

WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on the combination of premium market multiples (P/Book, P/S, P/E) and a free-cash-flow yield below the industry peer mean; elevated valuation metrics constrain upside absent a meaningful improvement in revenue growth or cash-flow generation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 165.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -48.32 M
 Change In Working Capital -96.66 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -222.16 M
 End Period Cash Flow 896.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 694.0 M
 Forward Revenue 455.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 151.0 M
 Depreciation 26.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 26.7 M
 Research and Development 134.3 M
 Total Operating Expenses 577.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 543.1 M
 EBITDA 143.5 M
 EBIT 116.8 M
 Operating Income 116.8 M
 Interest Income 18.0 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 18.0 M
 Income Before Tax 133.2 M
 Tax Provision 43.1 M
 Tax Rate 32.336 %
 Net Income 90.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 90.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.41
 EPS Actual 0.41
 EPS Difference 0.00
 EPS Surprise -0.92 %
 Forward EPS 0.48
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.0 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 2.7 B
 Total Current Assets 5.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.7 B
 Cash 896.4 M
 Net Receivables 3.3 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 95.9 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.7 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 2.9 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 343.5 M
 Total Liabilities 3.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.7 B
 Retained Earnings -162.36 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 5.50
 Shares Outstanding 489.898 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.42
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 33.0 B
 Enterprise Value 31.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 220.524
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -44.173 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -42.029 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 887.98
TTD: 220.524
mean: 115.214
median: 44.04
low: -352.026
 EV/R 45.59
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.21
 Asset To Liability 1.826
 Debt To Capital 0.113
 Debt To Assets 0.058
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.788 %
Debt To Assets YoY 141.558 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.9
median: 0.194
mean: 0.175
TTD: 0.058
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.127
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.358 %
Debt To Equity YoY 148.906 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.537
median: 0.352
mean: 0.313
TTD: 0.127
low: 0.005
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 12.235
Price To Book QoQ 2.626 %
Price To Book YoY -35.114 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.162
TTD: 12.235
median: 8.605
mean: 8.439
low: 0.647
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 187.907
Price To Earnings QoQ -5.889 %
Price To Earnings YoY -20.575 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 366.06
TTD: 187.907
mean: 103.373
median: 53.265
low: -119.25
 PE/G Ratio 0.606
 Price To Sales (P/S) 47.526
Price To Sales QoQ -9.609 %
Price To Sales YoY -38.752 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 55.452
TTD: 47.526
mean: 27.017
median: 22.334
low: 1.118
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 145.068
Forward PE/G 0.468
Forward P/S 72.485
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 9.038
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.119
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.147 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.0 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.375
median: 0.227
mean: 0.199
TTD: 0.119
low: 0.017
 Receivables Turnover 0.22
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.007 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.025
mean: 1.8
median: 1.352
low: 0.731
TTD: 0.22
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 414.601
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.33
 CapEx To Revenue -0.07
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.809
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.7 B
 Invested Capital 2.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.7 B
 Net Working Capital 2.1 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.572
 Current Ratio 1.714
Current Ratio QoQ -5.355 %
Current Ratio YoY -4.578 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.752
TTD: 1.714
mean: 1.625
median: 1.447
low: 0.894
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.394
 Cost Of Debt 7.295 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.193
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 114.459 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 23.287 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 220.0
median: 62.533
mean: 42.188
TTD: 3.193
low: -23.112
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.081
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 1636.379
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.423 %
 Revenue Growth 12.665 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -175.083 %
Revenue Growth YoY -33.314 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA TTD: 12.665 %
high: 6.9 %
mean: 2.839 %
median: 1.312 %
low: 0.527 %
 Earnings Growth 310.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -803.458 %
Earnings Growth YoY 520.0 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA TTD: 310.0 %
high: 23.034 %
median: 16.146 %
mean: 7.89 %
low: -150.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 78.246 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.866 %
Gross Margin YoY -3.524 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.916 %
median: 84.601 %
mean: 80.2 %
TTD: 78.246 %
low: 42.327 %
 EBIT Margin 16.826 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 90.361 %
EBIT Margin YoY 3.839 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 48.388 %
median: 48.388 %
mean: 30.386 %
TTD: 16.826 %
low: -30.992 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 16.826 %
Return On Sales QoQ 90.361 %
Return On Sales YoY 3.839 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 48.388 %
median: 48.388 %
mean: 30.071 %
TTD: 16.826 %
low: -80.448 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 116.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.354 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -50.071 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 183.2 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.36 %
median: 2.518 %
mean: 1.676 %
TTD: 0.354 %
low: -1.991 %
 Free Cash Growth -49.188 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -265.717 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -27.505 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 320.039 %
median: 320.039 %
mean: 164.688 %
TTD: -49.188 %
low: -118.823 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.295
 Cash Flow Margin 34.436 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.652
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.546 %
Return On Assets QoQ 80.186 %
Return On Assets YoY -10.687 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 8.261 %
median: 8.261 %
mean: 5.027 %
TTD: 1.546 %
low: -13.869 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.881 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.033
Return On Equity QoQ 79.249 %
Return On Equity YoY -5.431 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.292
median: 0.14
mean: 0.092
TTD: 0.033
low: -0.177
 DuPont ROE 3.33 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.931 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 118.568 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -156.638 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.885 %
median: 10.885 %
mean: 6.536 %
TTD: 2.931 %
low: -15.042 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical structure suggests scoped short-term rallies but with a dominant bearish backdrop: very strong ADX supports trend persistence, price remains below long-term averages, and key resistance clusters sit near $49–$50. MACD crossover and MRO negative reversal raise probability of a countertrend bounce toward the super-trend upper and short-term moving averages. If the bounce stalls near $49–$50 with volume failing to expand, expect the dominant bias to resume downward pressure. Fundamental valuation remains rich relative to peer means and cash-flow momentum softened QoQ, which reduces the likelihood of a sustained upside breakout within six weeks unless revenue and FCF signals show clear improvement.

About The Trade Desk, Inc.

The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) develops a robust technology platform for digital advertising, serving clients both in the United States and globally. The company provides a self-service, cloud-based platform that empowers buyers to efficiently plan, execute, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns. These campaigns span a variety of ad formats and channels, including video, display, audio, digital-out-of-home, native, and social media. The platform supports advertising across multiple devices, such as computers, mobile devices, televisions, and streaming devices. Additionally, The Trade Desk offers data and other value-added services to enhance advertising effectiveness. The company’s clientele includes advertising agencies, brands, and other service providers seeking to maximize their advertising reach and impact. Founded in 2009, The Trade Desk maintains its headquarters in Ventura, California.



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