Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SUPN) Accelerates Growth After Sage Acquisition, Near-Term Momentum Expected

Supernus enters the remainder of 2025 with expanded commercial breadth and cash strength. Recent corporate moves and mixed but constructive technicals suggest near-term directional pressure with continued fundamental support.

Recent News

On August 5, 2025 the company reported second-quarter 2025 results and confirmed completion of the Sage Therapeutics acquisition on July 31, 2025, adding Zurzuvae and a CNS discovery platform to the portfolio and signaling expected accretion in 2026. A July 22, 2025 investor notice set the August 5 earnings date; management highlighted integration and the ONAPGO launch as priorities. Supernus announced participation in several September 2025 investor events. Coverage noted the Sage deal structure: $8.50 cash per share plus up to $3.50 in contingent payments tied to milestones.

Technical Analysis

Trend strength (ADX and directional indicators): ADX at 50.07 signals a very-strong trending environment; DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal (bearish) while DI- displays a dip-and-reversal (bearish). Together this implies directional strength exists but recent directional shifts favor downside momentum into the near term.

MACD momentum: MACD sits at 1.45 below its signal line at 1.89 with a decreasing MACD trend, which denotes weakening bullish momentum and favors short-term bearish momentum versus price averages.

MRO interpretation: MRO at 34.0 with a dip-and-reversal indicates the price sits above the modeled target and carries downward pressure; the oscillator’s positive value implies potential for price mean-reversion toward valuation anchors.

RSI and short-term reversal: RSI at 65.83 with a dip-and-reversal suggests recent strength has pulled the indicator high and that the immediate momentum has peaked, increasing probability of consolidation or pullback before resumption.

Price vs moving averages and Ichimoku: Last close $44.80 rests above the 200-day average $35.53, signaling longer-term bullish context, while trading below the 20-day average $45.31 and beneath the 12-day EMA $44.94 signals near-term pressure. The Chikou span sits above the Ichimoku cloud, which maintains bullish structural bias despite short-term weakness.

Bollinger and volatility context: Price near the lower Bollinger bands (lower 2x at $43.51) and price trend described as a dip & reversal below -2x standard deviation indicate a recent overshoot; lower immediate volatility combined with elevated ADX suggests moves may unfold decisively once momentum resolves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: Operating margin (EBITmargin) $0.07338 or 7.34% declined QoQ by -5.23% and YoY by -0.53%. That operating margin sits below the industry peer mean of 31.98% (industry peer mean) and below the industry peer median of 32.489% (industry peer median), indicating profitability remains modest versus peers even as revenues grow.

Revenue and earnings growth: Total revenue $165,453,000 shows YoY revenue growth of 10.43% and QoQ revenue growth of -1.75%. Net income $22,499,000 and EPS actual $0.40 beat the estimate of -$0.06 by $0.46, representing a roughly 767% surprise to the estimate.

Cash, leverage, and liquidity: Cash and short-term investments total $522,596,000, cash ratio 1.82 and current ratio 2.58, supporting flexibility for integration and launches. Total debt $31,774,000 yields debt-to-assets 2.30% and debt-to-EBITDA 0.95, indicating a low leverage profile relative to operational scale.

Cash flow and valuation anchors: Free cash flow $58,080,000 produces a free cash flow yield of 3.14%, above the industry peer mean of 1.72% (industry peer mean), while cash flow to earnings stands at 245%. Enterprise multiple 40.61 sits below the industry peer mean of 58.30 (industry peer mean), and WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on those cash-flow and enterprise metrics.

Pipeline and commercial drivers: Recent completion of the Sage acquisition brings Zurzuvae revenue participation and an expanded CNS discovery platform; ONAPGO launch and stronger Qelbree and GOCOVRI prescriptions underpinned revenue mix in the quarter. R&D remains active with SPN-817 in Phase 2b and other candidates advancing, which supports medium-term revenue optionality while raising near-term investment requirements.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 115.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow 58.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -455.00 K
 Change In Working Capital 11.5 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 28.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 144.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 165.5 M
 Forward Revenue 48.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 16.8 M
 Depreciation 539.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization 21.4 M
 Research and Development 22.1 M
 Total Operating Expenses 153.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 148.6 M
 EBITDA 33.5 M
 EBIT 12.1 M
 Operating Income 12.1 M
 Interest Income 4.5 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 4.5 M
 Income Before Tax 16.7 M
 Tax Provision -5.83 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 22.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 22.5 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.06
 EPS Actual 0.40
 EPS Difference 0.46
 EPS Surprise 766.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.47
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 598.3 M
 Net Tangible Assets 465.6 M
 Total Current Assets 738.9 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 522.6 M
 Cash 144.7 M
 Net Receivables 140.8 M
 Inventory 44.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 28.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 8.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 286.4 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 31.8 M
 Total Liabilities 318.5 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.1 B
 Retained Earnings 567.1 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 18.96
 Shares Outstanding 56.119 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.95
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.9 B
 Enterprise Value 1.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 40.613
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -48.897 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 54.046 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 108.842
mean: 58.295
median: 49.313
SUPN: 40.613
low: -69.016
 EV/R 8.223
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.299
 Asset To Liability 4.34
 Debt To Capital 0.029
 Debt To Assets 0.023
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.17 %
Debt To Assets YoY 212.228 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.823
mean: 0.344
median: 0.313
SUPN: 0.023
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.03
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.69 %
Debt To Equity YoY 195.45 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.571
mean: 1.196
median: 0.734
SUPN: 0.03
low: -2.461
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.74
Price To Book QoQ -2.781 %
Price To Book YoY 5.639 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.536
median: 5.087
mean: 4.348
SUPN: 1.74
low: -3.191
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 82.473
Price To Earnings QoQ -152.562 %
Price To Earnings YoY 3.625 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 189.74
SUPN: 82.473
mean: 65.538
median: 55.693
low: -17.582
 PE/G Ratio -0.284
 Price To Sales (P/S) 11.189
Price To Sales QoQ -9.129 %
Price To Sales YoY 19.421 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 42.852
mean: 20.728
median: 16.814
SUPN: 11.189
low: 0.964
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 68.68
Forward PE/G -0.236
Forward P/S 37.977
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -54.42
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.121
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 9.85 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.665 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.283
mean: 0.136
median: 0.136
SUPN: 0.121
low: 0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.155
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.912 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 3.014 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.644
mean: 1.288
median: 1.228
SUPN: 1.155
low: 0.459
 Inventory Turnover 0.36
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 18.483 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 43.964 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.248
mean: 0.49
median: 0.4
SUPN: 0.36
low: 0.19
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 78.997
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 305.223
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 22.8 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -28.829 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 506.721
SUPN: 305.223
mean: 161.138
median: 133.678
low: -339.4
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.366
 CapEx To Revenue -0.003
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.844
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 465.6 M
 Net Working Capital 452.5 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.825
 Current Ratio 2.58
Current Ratio QoQ 5.737 %
Current Ratio YoY 34.753 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.744
SUPN: 2.58
mean: 1.063
median: 1.006
low: 0.074
 Quick Ratio 2.426
Quick Ratio QoQ 7.138 %
Quick Ratio YoY 43.243 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA SUPN: 2.426
high: 2.377
mean: 0.808
median: 0.758
low: 0.195
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.949
 Cost Of Debt 0.0 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.193
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 44.247
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.606 %
 Revenue Growth 10.432 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -174.658 %
Revenue Growth YoY -39.285 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 38.515 %
SUPN: 10.432 %
mean: 10.344 %
median: 8.267 %
low: -9.726 %
 Earnings Growth -290.476 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 126.934 %
Earnings Growth YoY -855.229 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 88.922 %
mean: 23.238 %
median: 5.882 %
low: -114.286 %
SUPN: -290.476 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 89.83 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.392 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.53 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.656 %
SUPN: 89.83 %
median: 77.496 %
mean: 76.119 %
low: -8.482 %
 EBIT Margin 7.338 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -523.428 %
EBIT Margin YoY -53.04 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 74.453 %
median: 32.489 %
mean: 31.98 %
SUPN: 7.338 %
low: -147.563 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 7.338 %
Return On Sales QoQ -523.428 %
Return On Sales YoY -53.04 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 45.805 %
median: 35.126 %
mean: 34.856 %
SUPN: 7.338 %
low: -127.832 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 58.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.137 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 91.164 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 39.113 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.075 %
SUPN: 3.137 %
mean: 1.716 %
median: 0.943 %
low: -11.204 %
 Free Cash Growth 91.86 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -391.619 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -1451.677 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 563.847 %
SUPN: 91.86 %
mean: 16.92 %
median: -26.3 %
low: -616.923 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.581
 Cash Flow Margin 33.368 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.454
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.648 %
Return On Assets QoQ -289.208 %
Return On Assets YoY 8.421 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.949 %
median: 3.806 %
mean: 3.524 %
SUPN: 1.648 %
low: -11.289 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.108 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ -284.394 %
Return On Equity YoY 1.683 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.31
mean: 0.146
median: 0.096
SUPN: 0.021
low: -0.281
 DuPont ROE 2.148 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.902 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -697.351 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -115.291 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 12.214 %
mean: 6.42 %
median: 5.567 %
SUPN: 0.902 %
low: -9.351 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term outlook favors consolidation with a bias toward downside pressure and volatility compression resolving into directional movement: strong ADX and a decreasing MACD point to a sustained move once current RSI and MRO-driven mean reversion ends. The low leverage, sizable cash position $522,596,000, and WMDST’s under-valued classification create a fundamental backstop that should limit large downside extension. Expect price action to test short-term moving average resistance in coming weeks while the post-acquisition integration narrative and ONAPGO adoption provide catalysts for renewed upside momentum.

About Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SUPN) develops and commercializes innovative therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company offers a range of products targeting various neurological conditions. Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR serve patients with epilepsy and migraine prophylaxis, providing extended-release formulations for effective management. Qelbree addresses attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in both adults and children aged six and older, presenting a non-stimulant treatment option. Supernus also markets APOKYN for managing hypomobility in advanced Parkinson’s Disease (PD), XADAGO for levodopa/carbidopa treatment in PD patients, and MYOBLOC for cervical dystonia and sialorrhea in adults. GOCOVRI targets dyskinesia in PD patients, while Osmolex ER treats Parkinson’s disease and drug-induced extrapyramidal reactions in adults. In its development pipeline, Supernus advances SPN-830, a drug/device combination for PD off episodes, and SPN-817, a selective acetylcholinesterase inhibitor in Phase II trials for epilepsy. The company also explores SPN-820 for resistant depression, SPN-443 for ADHD/CNS, and SPN-446 and SPN-448 for narcolepsy and CNS treatment, respectively. Headquartered in Rockville, Maryland, Supernus Pharmaceuticals collaborates with wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors to reach patients nationwide.



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