Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) Signals Momentum Rebound; Near-Term Upside Likely

Hub Group shows mixed fundamentals but improving technical momentum that supports a near-term positive bias. Operational margins and revenue trends weigh on valuation even as cash flow metrics and momentum indicators point toward price resilience.

Recent News

On June 12, 2025 the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share, payable June 30, 2025 to holders of record June 23, 2025.

On July 31, 2025 the company reported second-quarter 2025 results: $905.6 million revenue, segment detail for Intermodal and Logistics, and commentary on cost actions and a related asset agreement; the release included cash and restricted cash of $164 million as of June 30, 2025.

Brokerage coverage aggregated to an average “Moderate Buy” view with a $42.01 average 12‑month price objective reported July 28, 2025; several firms adjusted targets during the summer.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show no strong trend: ADX at 18.04 signals a non‑trending market environment, while DI+ at 27.29 experienced a peak-and-reverse, which reads as bearish directional pressure and reduces conviction for a sustained uptrend; DI- at 18.70 shows a dip-and-reversal that also registers bearish directional influence.

MACD registers at 0.56 with the MACD line above the 0.46 signal line and the MACD_trend increasing, which constitutes a bullish momentum signal and supports short-term upside pressure on price.

MRO sits at 28.28 and remains positive; that level indicates the market price lies above the model target and therefore carries potential for mean reversion downward from current levels despite recent momentum.

RSI at 55.25 with a peak-and-reversal trend suggests recent strength has begun to cool, implying momentum momentum may moderate even as price retains room above oversold thresholds.

Price sits at $37.35 above the 20‑day average ($36.54) and the 50‑day average ($35.41), with the 12‑day EMA increasing; those moving average alignments favor near-term upside, while the 200‑day average at $38.71 still lies above price and caps longer-term follow-through.

Bollinger position shows price crossing above the -1x stdDev band and remaining between the 1x bands, consistent with a rebound from short-term support; the chikou span sits above the Ichimoku cloud, adding a directional bias that supports continuation if momentum holds.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue fell 19.62% year-over-year and declined 82.55% sequentially, reflecting meaningful near-term demand weakness. Operating income-based margins compressed: EBIT margin at 3.99% declined 6.19% QoQ and 4.71% YoY; operating margin equaled 3.81% and fell roughly 10.40% QoQ and 8.99% YoY. Those margin compressions weigh on earnings leverage and valuation multiple support.

Profitability returns remain low: return on equity at 1.51% fell 7.49% QoQ and 14.76% YoY, while return on assets at 0.90% declined 4.87% QoQ and 11.00% YoY. Cash conversion shows strength: free cash flow of $50,211,000 produces a free cash flow yield of 2.32%, which improved 10.81% YoY and supports capital allocation flexibility given net debt of $94,872,000 and cash of $137,048,000.

Liquidity and leverage show conservative profiles: current ratio at 1.42 improved 4.57% QoQ and 7.60% YoY, and debt-to-equity at 0.28 declined 6.21% QoQ; debt-to-assets stands at 16.52%. Interest coverage near 11.47x supports servicing cost and preserves operating flexibility.

Valuation multiples reflect mixed signals: price-to-book at 1.29x and price-to-sales at 2.39x sit below the industry peer mean on those metrics, while forward P/E sits at 57.34x and the enterprise multiple at 29.87x. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, with that assessment driven by cash flow yield, low net debt relative to market cap, and an enterprise value of $2,493,756,794 that leaves room for re-rating should margin recovery occur.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 141.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow 61.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -11.29 M
 Change In Working Capital -13.62 M
 Dividends Paid -7.50 M
 Cash Flow Delta 22.5 M
 End Period Cash Flow 163.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 905.6 M
 Forward Revenue 330.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 831.6 M
 Depreciation 47.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 47.4 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 871.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 74.0 M
 EBITDA 83.5 M
 EBIT 36.1 M
 Operating Income 34.5 M
 Interest Income 1.0 M
 Interest Expense 3.1 M
 Net Interest Income -2.13 M
 Income Before Tax 32.9 M
 Tax Provision 7.9 M
 Tax Rate 24.027 %
 Net Income 25.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 25.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS 0.60
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.8 B
 Intangible Assets 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 611.6 M
 Total Current Assets 745.4 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 137.0 M
 Cash 137.0 M
 Net Receivables 541.6 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 45.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 235.3 M
 Short-Term Debt 97.6 M
 Total Current Liabilities 525.9 M
 Net Debt 94.9 M
 Total Debt 462.6 M
 Total Liabilities 1.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.7 B
 Retained Earnings 2.1 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 27.36
 Shares Outstanding 61.216 M
 Revenue Per-Share 14.79
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.2 B
 Enterprise Value 2.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 29.866
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -1.355 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 5.345 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 117.168
mean: 37.584
median: 35.56
HUBG: 29.866
low: 2.89
 EV/R 2.754
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.672
 Asset To Liability 2.608
 Debt To Capital 0.216
 Debt To Assets 0.165
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.97 %
Debt To Assets YoY 357.673 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.783
mean: 0.175
HUBG: 0.165
low: 0.001
median: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.276
Debt To Equity QoQ -6.208 %
Debt To Equity YoY 339.249 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.837
mean: 0.656
HUBG: 0.276
low: 0.001
median: 0.001
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.294
Price To Book QoQ -4.264 %
Price To Book YoY -21.036 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 8.353
median: 6.315
mean: 5.274
HUBG: 1.294
low: 0.126
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.394
Price To Sales QoQ -1.701 %
Price To Sales YoY -12.214 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 7.153
median: 3.686
mean: 3.505
HUBG: 2.394
low: 0.371
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 57.338
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 6.555
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 6.868
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.322
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.155 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.1 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.784
HUBG: 0.322
mean: 0.199
median: 0.076
low: 0.02
 Receivables Turnover 1.632
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.516 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -3.022 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.919
mean: 1.976
median: 1.927
HUBG: 1.632
low: 0.633
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 55.928
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 4.126
 CapEx To Revenue -0.012
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.238
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 611.6 M
 Net Working Capital 219.5 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.261
 Current Ratio 1.417
Current Ratio QoQ 4.573 %
Current Ratio YoY 7.595 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.152
HUBG: 1.417
median: 1.313
mean: 1.246
low: 0.018
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 5.541
 Cost Of Debt 0.505 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 11.466
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -4.29 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 2.491 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 44.954
mean: 13.342
HUBG: 11.466
median: 7.983
low: -0.25
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.136
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 27.082
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.366
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.297
 Dividend Rate 0.12
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.761 %
 Revenue Growth -1.045 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -82.548 %
Revenue Growth YoY -19.615 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 10.816 %
mean: 1.111 %
median: 0.271 %
HUBG: -1.045 %
low: -1.508 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 8.176 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.632 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.288 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 24.885 %
mean: 18.225 %
median: 17.813 %
HUBG: 8.176 %
low: 0.618 %
 EBIT Margin 3.986 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -6.19 %
EBIT Margin YoY -4.71 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 35.181 %
median: 35.181 %
mean: 22.781 %
HUBG: 3.986 %
low: -0.141 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.807 %
Return On Sales QoQ -10.402 %
Return On Sales YoY -8.989 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 20.411 %
mean: 9.114 %
median: 8.586 %
HUBG: 3.807 %
low: 0.629 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 50.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.316 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 1.534 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 10.813 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.61 %
HUBG: 2.316 %
median: 0.343 %
mean: 0.0 %
low: -8.76 %
 Free Cash Growth -1.247 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -99.849 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -88.404 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 128.824 %
HUBG: -1.247 %
mean: -78.087 %
median: -138.253 %
low: -294.67 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.989
 Cash Flow Margin 7.921 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.841
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.898 %
Return On Assets QoQ -4.873 %
Return On Assets YoY -11.001 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.26 %
median: 2.928 %
mean: 2.443 %
HUBG: 0.898 %
low: -0.899 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.587 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.015
Return On Equity QoQ -7.489 %
Return On Equity YoY -14.762 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.085
mean: 0.047
median: 0.03
HUBG: 0.015
low: -0.088
 DuPont ROE 1.519 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.438 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -7.88 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -105.283 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.045 %
mean: 3.053 %
median: 2.562 %
HUBG: 1.438 %
low: -0.61 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators favor a short-term positive bias: MACD above its signal and rising EMAs support further upside toward the $39–$40 area indicated by the mean analyst target, while MRO and RSI suggest the move may meet mean-reversion pressure unless margins or revenue trends show stabilization. Expect price action to trade with limited directional conviction while ADX remains below 20; watch for a decisive move above the 200‑day average at $38.71 to reinforce sustained upside. On the downside, a failure to hold the 20‑day average near $36.54 would signal rotation back toward the super trend lower at $34.86 and the lower Bollinger band region.

About Hub Group, Inc.

Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) stands as a cornerstone in the North American supply chain landscape, delivering comprehensive transportation and logistics management services. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois, Hub Group has evolved into a leading provider of innovative solutions that drive efficiency across various sectors, including retail, consumer products, and durable goods. The company’s diverse transportation services portfolio encompasses intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated trucking, alongside final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transport. Hub Group’s logistics capabilities extend to full outsource solutions, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing, fulfillment, and parcel services. With a robust fleet featuring approximately 2,300 tractors, 460 independent owner-operators, and 4,300 trailers, Hub Group is equipped to meet the dynamic needs of its clients. The company also boasts a significant asset base, including around 50,000 dry, 53-foot containers and 900 refrigerated units, underscoring its commitment to reliability and scale. Through strategic partnerships and a focus on innovation, Hub Group consistently delivers tailored, end-to-end solutions that enhance supply chain performance, ensuring seamless connectivity and operational excellence for its diverse clientele.



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