Telesat Corporation (NASDAQ:TSAT) Poised To Reprice After Large Defense Contract Boost

Telesat enters a volatile near-term phase: recent government awards expand backlog while leverage and negative cash flow keep valuation pressured.

Recent News

July 27, 2026 — Telesat GEO announced readiness to execute an FCC Upper C‑band transition plan tied to U.S. spectrum changes. July 8–9, 2026 — Telesat reported corporate actions including board changes and an agreement in principle to provide Military Ka‑band Arctic connectivity as part of a multi‑billion‑dollar Lightspeed services arrangement. Early July 2026 — the company donated satellite capacity to support disaster recovery in Venezuela. Early August 2026 — the Canadian government awarded Telesat a large Arctic military satellite services contract reported in the press as the company’s largest to date.

Technical Analysis

ADX/DI: ADX at 17.8 indicates no established trend; DI+ shows a dip & reversal and DI‑ shows a peak & reversal — both DI signals read as bullish momentum signals, but the weak ADX reduces conviction and points toward range trading rather than a sustained directional move.

MACD: MACD shows a dip & reversal (bullish momentum), but MACD remains below the 0.51 signal line, so no bullish crossover has formed to confirm stronger momentum.

MRO: MRO at 26.75 sits positive, implying price currently above the model target and therefore creating potential downward pressure on the quote.

RSI: RSI 47.59 and decreasing signals neutral-to-soft selling pressure that leaves room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Ichimoku: Price $42.94 sits below the 20‑day average ($46.83) and the 50‑day average ($44.39) but above the 200‑day average ($39.07). The 12‑day EMA shows a dip & reversal while Ichimoku lines (Tenkan 51.63, Kijun 47.84) lie above the price, indicating short‑term resistance from the conversion/base lines and a cloud that does not support a clear bullish breakout.

Bollinger & Volatility: Price sits between the 1x lower band ($40.76) and the 1x upper band ($52.90), with 42‑day volatility elevated and 42‑day beta very high at 5.97, implying outsized intraday and swing volatility versus the market.

Volume Profile: Recent volume (98,722) trails 10/50/200‑day averages, a short‑term liquidity taper that can exacerbate moves when catalysts arrive.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: Total revenue $87,060,000 yet operating margin stands at −93.457% and EBIT margin at −126.742%, reflecting large non‑operating adjustments and expense loads relative to revenue. EBIT margin compares unfavorably to the industry peer mean of 12.201% and industry peer median of 11.573%, placing Telesat well below customary peer profitability levels.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Cash and short‑term investments total $523,151,000, while operating cash flow measured $3,620,000 and free cash flow stands negative at −$39,525,000 (free cash flow yield −6.48%). The free cash flow yield sits below the industry peer mean (~0.99%), signaling cash generation currently lags peers. Current ratio at 0.25 compares below the industry peer mean of 0.5895, indicating compressed near‑term liquidity relative to typical peer profiles.

Balance Sheet Leverage: Total debt $3,644,812,000 and net debt $3,122,087,000 exceed market capitalization $609,920,999; debt‑to‑equity at 7.02x and debt‑to‑assets 54.47% highlight heavy leverage. Interest coverage is negative (−2.21), consistent with reported interest expense of $50,461,000 and recurring operating losses, which supports a constrained near‑term financial flexibility assessment.

Revenue & Margins Dynamics: YoY revenue declined ~15.51% while QoQ revenue growth showed a modest 6.88% uptick. Gross margin remains high at 90.09%, well above the industry peer mean of 35.07%, reflecting high‑margin satellite capacity economics on reported sales, but equally large fixed and financing costs depress operating profitability.

Valuation Context: Market multiples show price‑to‑sales ~7.01x and price‑to‑book ~1.18x. Price metrics sit below some industry peer means for price ratios (industry peer mean P/S ~8.28, P/B mean ~5.44), but leverage, negative operating margins, and negative free cash flow drive WMDST’s view. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued, reflecting weak operating margins, negative free cash flow yield, and net debt materially above market cap.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 509.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow 3.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -43.15 M
 Change In Working Capital 12.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 12.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 522.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 87.1 M
 Forward Revenue 13.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 8.6 M
 Depreciation 22.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 30.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 86.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 78.4 M
 EBITDA -79.10 M
 EBIT -109.84 M
 Operating Income 983.0 K
 Interest Income 4.7 M
 Interest Expense 50.5 M
 Net Interest Income -45.81 M
 Income Before Tax -160.30 M
 Tax Provision -9.35 M
 Tax Rate 5.83 %
 Net Income -45.49 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -150.95 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS -1.82
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.7 B
 Intangible Assets 2.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.07 B
 Total Current Assets 857.8 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 523.2 M
 Cash 522.7 M
 Net Receivables 58.8 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 326.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 88.8 M
 Short-Term Debt 2.4 B
 Total Current Liabilities 3.4 B
 Net Debt 3.1 B
 Total Debt 3.6 B
 Total Liabilities 5.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 519.0 M
 Retained Earnings 284.7 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 34.11
 Shares Outstanding 15.218 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.72
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 609.9 M
 Enterprise Value 3.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple -46.879
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 439.464 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -172.046 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 364.299
median: 102.901
mean: 99.062
TSAT: -46.879
low: -79.796
 EV/R 42.862
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 12.894
 Asset To Liability 1.331
 Debt To Capital 0.875
 Debt To Assets 0.545
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.785 %
Debt To Assets YoY 15.733 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.938
median: 0.682
mean: 0.681
TSAT: 0.545
low: 0.025
 Debt To Equity 7.023
Debt To Equity QoQ 5.49 %
Debt To Equity YoY 48.404 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 9.666
TSAT: 7.023
mean: 5.201
median: 5.014
low: 0.034
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.175
Price To Book QoQ 43.421 %
Price To Book YoY 225.743 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 6.055
median: 6.055
mean: 5.439
TSAT: 1.175
low: -2.809
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 7.006
Price To Sales QoQ 51.476 %
Price To Sales YoY 219.944 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 9.297
median: 9.297
mean: 8.278
TSAT: 7.006
low: 1.156
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -17.988
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 45.968
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 10.054
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.013
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.755 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -21.084 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.185
mean: 0.09
low: 0.087
median: 0.087
TSAT: 0.013
 Receivables Turnover 1.948
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -13.261 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -7.747 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.896
median: 2.896
mean: 2.554
TSAT: 1.948
low: 1.022
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 46.843
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -575.311
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -46.515 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 87.382
mean: 31.178
median: 25.62
low: -15.704
TSAT: -575.311
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -0.034
 CapEx To Revenue -0.496
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.95
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 4.2 B
 Invested Capital 4.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.07 B
 Net Working Capital -2.56 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.153
 Current Ratio 0.251
Current Ratio QoQ 0.211 %
Current Ratio YoY -95.539 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.807
mean: 0.59
low: 0.302
median: 0.302
TSAT: 0.251
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -45.789
 Cost Of Debt 1.311 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -2.209
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -72.866 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -2067.661 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 6.356
mean: 0.956
median: 0.716
low: -0.977
TSAT: -2.209
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.012
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 622.154
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.337 %
 Revenue Growth -7.423 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 6.883 %
Revenue Growth YoY -15.513 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 46.58 %
mean: -1.304 %
median: -3.386 %
TSAT: -7.423 %
low: -18.824 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 90.087 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.785 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.413 %
Gross Margin IPRWA TSAT: 90.087 %
high: 56.232 %
mean: 35.065 %
median: 30.874 %
low: 3.739 %
 EBIT Margin -126.742 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -72.602 %
EBIT Margin YoY -2415.768 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 19.556 %
mean: 12.201 %
median: 11.573 %
low: -13.001 %
TSAT: -126.742 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -93.457 %
Return On Sales QoQ -1417.781 %
Return On Sales YoY -1807.601 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 18.983 %
mean: 10.24 %
median: 8.908 %
low: -21.596 %
TSAT: -93.457 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -39.52 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -6.48 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -59.998 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -115.901 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.766 %
mean: 0.989 %
median: 0.308 %
low: -3.209 %
TSAT: -6.48 %
 Free Cash Growth -43.9 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -163.586 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -93.362 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 369.348 %
TSAT: -43.9 %
mean: -81.487 %
low: -117.971 %
median: -117.971 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.869
 Cash Flow Margin 46.694 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.894
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.684 %
Return On Assets QoQ -63.147 %
Return On Assets YoY 209.502 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.0 %
mean: -0.085 %
median: -0.348 %
TSAT: -0.684 %
low: -3.31 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -3.365 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.088
Return On Equity QoQ -62.936 %
Return On Equity YoY 299.726 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.19
mean: -0.008
median: -0.026
TSAT: -0.088
low: -0.261
 DuPont ROE -8.67 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -2.496 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -73.965 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -2755.319 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 1.244 %
median: 1.244 %
mean: 1.166 %
low: -2.101 %
TSAT: -2.496 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a volatile, range‑bound environment where catalyst reaction (government contract milestones or material filings) likely drives outsized moves. Technicals remain mixed: short‑term momentum shows nascent bullish signs (DI signals, MACD dip & reversal) while MRO and RSI suggest pressure and mean‑reversion risk. ADX below 20 signals no confirmed trend; a sustained directional move requires ADX to rise above 20 with a MACD crossover above its signal line for higher conviction. High leverage and negative cash flow maintain downside sensitivity to execution or funding concerns, while large public contracts can prompt repricing if they convert to recognized revenue or improve cash flow profiles.

About Telesat Corporation

Telesat Corporation (NASDAQ:TSAT) delivers mission-critical communications services globally, leveraging its extensive satellite network. The company provides satellite-based solutions for direct-to-home (DTH) service providers, enabling them to broadcast television programming, audio, and information channels directly to consumers. Telesat supports broadcasters, cable networks, and DTH providers in transmitting television services efficiently. In addition to broadcasting, Telesat offers value-added services such as satellite capacity, digital video encoding, and uplinking/downlinking services. It caters to telecommunication carriers and integrators by providing satellite capacity and comprehensive services, including space segment services and terrestrial facilities, supporting enterprise connectivity, internet, and cellular backhaul. The company also facilitates rural telephony solutions. Telesat extends its satellite capacity services to maritime and aeronautical markets, serving commercial airplanes and vessels. It collaborates with government service integrators to provide satellite services to the U.S. government and offers similar services to the Canadian government. The company also caters to the oil, gas, and mining industries with specialized communications services. Headquartered in Ottawa, Canada, Telesat employs a direct sales force to market its services, which include satellite operator services and consulting related to space and earth segments, satellite control, and research and development initiatives.



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