Warby Parker Inc. (NYSE:WRBY) Signals Near-Term Downside Risk Amid Weak Momentum

Price action and momentum indicators favor continued near-term pressure, while operating margins and cash buffers show selective improvement that may cap downside. Valuation remains elevated on several multiples, limiting upside runway.

Recent News

On June 8, 2026 the company held its annual meeting of stockholders. On June 2, 2026 Warby Parker participated in the Baird Global Consumer, Technology & Services conference. On July 8, 2026 the company issued a tranche update related to its equity buyback plan.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show no established trend: ADX at 9.67 signals lack of trend strength while DI+ at 20.77 declines and DI- at 19.22 has completed a dip-and-reversal; that combination creates a bearish directional bias without strong trend traction.

MACD reads -0.31 with the MACD line below the signal line (-0.13) and falling; this configuration denotes bearish momentum and confirms recent downside bias rather than a fresh momentum reversal.

MRO sits positive at 8.65 and trending lower, indicating price currently sits above the model target and carries modest pressure toward correction back toward fair-target levels.

RSI near 48 and decreasing places momentum marginally below neutral, implying drift toward bearish territory rather than oversold support that would attract buyers.

Price sits below short-term averages: 12-day EMA at $25.82 and the 20-day average at $26.02, with the 50-day average at $26.89. The close at $24.60 sits just under the 1x Bollinger lower band ($24.82) and above the 2x lower band ($23.61), placing the stock near the lower edge of recent volatility bands and within a lower-range trading band.

Ichimoku components lie above the market (Tenkan-sen $26.48, Kijun-sen $27.25, Senkou A/B $27.01/$26.18), reinforcing short-to-intermediate resistance levels. Short-term EMA trend and SuperTrend upper at $28.20 act as additional overhead resistance, while 52-week low and recent lower-band levels form nearby downside reference points.

Volatility and market sensitivity appear elevated: 42-day beta 2.59 and 52-week beta 2.16 suggest outsized moves relative to the market; recent volume remains below longer-term averages, implying thinner conviction behind price moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Top-line and margins: Total revenue for the period stands at $235,511,000 with YoY revenue change of -31.21% and quarter-over-quarter change of -119.90% as reported; those declines reflect meaningful top-line contraction on a year-over-year basis. Gross margin at 57.94% improved YoY and QoQ, representing a material edge versus the industry peer mean (40.76%) and industry peer median (42.60%). Operating (EBIT) margin equals 1.35%, which improved sharply QoQ (+95.49%) but fell sharply YoY (-163.74%) and remains well below the industry peer mean (13.46%) and median (15.63%).

Profitability and earnings: Net income totaled $4,644,000 with EBIT $3,167,000 and EBITDA $17,237,000. Reported EPS reached $0.15 versus an estimate of $0.11, producing an EPS surprise ratio of 36.36%. Earnings growth on the latest reporting period shows a positive sequential indicator (earnings growth 36.36%), but YoY growth registered -184.85%.

Liquidity and cash: Cash and short-term investments total $292.67M and operating cash flow reached $29.62M with free cash flow $6.76M (free cash flow yield 0.21%). The current ratio stands at 2.27, above the industry peer mean of 1.16 and industry peer median of 1.02, providing a comfortable near-term liquidity buffer. Cash conversion cycle measures 4.87 days and shortened both QoQ and YoY, supporting working-capital efficiency.

Leverage and returns: Total debt $250.98M yields debt-to-assets of 32.50% and debt-to-equity of 0.64; interest-coverage at 1.69 remains well below the industry peer mean (14.09), indicating tighter coverage despite manageable absolute debt levels. Return on equity registers 1.19% and return on assets 0.62%, both below industry peer means and medians where those comparators exist.

Operational efficiency: Asset turnover equals 0.312, roughly in line with the industry peer mean (0.319). Inventory turns and receivables turnover remain stable; inventory days around 36 and receivables turnover high, reflecting rapid collection relative to peers.

Valuation metrics: Trailing PE stands at 175.21, price-to-book near 8.28, and price-to-sales about 13.77; forward PE near 169.94 with a PEG approximately 4.82. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given stretched multiples relative to absolute earnings and cash-flow generation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 288.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 29.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -22.86 M
 Change In Working Capital -4.16 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 4.4 M
 End Period Cash Flow 292.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 235.5 M
 Forward Revenue 238.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 99.1 M
 Depreciation 14.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 14.1 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 232.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 136.5 M
 EBITDA 17.2 M
 EBIT 3.2 M
 Operating Income 3.2 M
 Interest Income 2.1 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 2.1 M
 Income Before Tax 5.3 M
 Tax Provision 607.0 K
 Tax Rate 11.56 %
 Net Income 4.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 4.6 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.11
 EPS Actual 0.15
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 36.364 %
 Forward EPS 0.15
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 772.3 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 392.0 M
 Total Current Assets 370.8 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 292.7 M
 Cash 292.7 M
 Net Receivables 2.1 M
 Inventory 42.1 M
 Long-Term Investments 13.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 41.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 163.5 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 251.0 M
 Total Liabilities 380.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 392.0 M
 Retained Earnings -677.76 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.18
 Shares Outstanding 123.426 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.91
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 3.2 B
 Enterprise Value 3.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 185.769
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 2.693 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -47.949 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA WRBY: 185.769
high: 104.045
mean: 52.004
median: 48.337
low: -78.249
 EV/R 13.596
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.97
 Asset To Liability 2.031
 Debt To Capital 0.39
 Debt To Assets 0.325
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.707 %
Debt To Assets YoY -0.123 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.056
median: 0.538
mean: 0.488
WRBY: 0.325
low: 0.157
 Debt To Equity 0.64
Debt To Equity QoQ 1.257 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1.336 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.555
mean: 1.517
median: 1.338
WRBY: 0.64
low: -2.006
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 8.275
Price To Book QoQ 9.397 %
Price To Book YoY 3.168 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 9.078
WRBY: 8.275
mean: 3.709
median: 2.837
low: -3.375
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 175.209
Price To Earnings QoQ -16.804 %
Price To Earnings YoY -36.479 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA WRBY: 175.209
high: 141.649
median: 77.251
mean: 75.806
low: -72.826
 PE/G Ratio 4.818
 Price To Sales (P/S) 13.773
Price To Sales QoQ 17.467 %
Price To Sales YoY 1.89 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 14.854
WRBY: 13.773
mean: 7.96
median: 7.406
low: 0.174
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 169.943
Forward PE/G 4.673
Forward P/S 13.976
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -31.453
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.312
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.17 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.778 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.629
mean: 0.319
WRBY: 0.312
median: 0.285
low: 0.078
 Receivables Turnover 122.63
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 27.614 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -25.327 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA WRBY: 122.63
high: 62.704
mean: 13.523
median: 11.006
low: 0.276
 Inventory Turnover 2.237
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.67 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 1.88 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA WRBY: 2.237
high: 2.152
mean: 0.73
median: 0.674
low: 0.308
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 0.744
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 4.871
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -54.868 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -74.205 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 216.016
median: 25.005
mean: 18.968
WRBY: 4.871
low: -69.767
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.136
 CapEx To Revenue -0.097
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.625
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 392.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 392.0 M
 Invested Capital 392.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 392.0 M
 Net Working Capital 207.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.79
 Current Ratio 2.268
Current Ratio QoQ -2.792 %
Current Ratio YoY -11.168 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.705
WRBY: 2.268
mean: 1.165
median: 1.02
low: 0.49
 Quick Ratio 2.011
Quick Ratio QoQ -0.967 %
Quick Ratio YoY -10.003 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA WRBY: 2.011
high: 1.391
mean: 0.337
median: 0.237
low: 0.068
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 14.56
 Cost Of Debt 0.68 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.685
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 89.983 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -169.989 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 93.279
mean: 14.087
median: 11.957
WRBY: 1.685
low: -58.921
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.164
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 32.141
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.876 %
 Revenue Growth -2.861 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -119.897 %
Revenue Growth YoY -31.209 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 41.226 %
median: 7.268 %
mean: -1.237 %
WRBY: -2.861 %
low: -54.332 %
 Earnings Growth 36.364 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -111.364 %
Earnings Growth YoY -184.85 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.581 %
WRBY: 36.364 %
median: 18.689 %
mean: 2.911 %
low: -400.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 57.941 %
Gross Margin QoQ 7.201 %
Gross Margin YoY 9.382 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.274 %
WRBY: 57.941 %
median: 42.598 %
mean: 40.762 %
low: 10.662 %
 EBIT Margin 1.345 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 95.494 %
EBIT Margin YoY -163.744 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 20.591 %
median: 15.628 %
mean: 13.463 %
WRBY: 1.345 %
low: -19.594 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 1.345 %
Return On Sales QoQ 95.494 %
Return On Sales YoY -163.744 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 20.591 %
median: 15.253 %
mean: 13.396 %
WRBY: 1.345 %
low: -19.598 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 6.8 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.208 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -29.492 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -74.788 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 20.691 %
median: 0.869 %
mean: 0.646 %
WRBY: 0.208 %
low: -12.625 %
 Free Cash Growth -19.324 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -757.726 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -123.834 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 135.714 %
WRBY: -19.324 %
mean: -72.206 %
median: -76.577 %
low: -406.119 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.455
 Cash Flow Margin 11.381 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 5.772
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.616 %
Return On Assets QoQ 41.284 %
Return On Assets YoY -343.478 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.232 %
median: 3.102 %
mean: 3.012 %
WRBY: 0.616 %
low: -7.602 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.52 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.012
Return On Equity QoQ 40.237 %
Return On Equity YoY -344.33 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.267
median: 0.057
mean: 0.013
WRBY: 0.012
low: -0.276
 DuPont ROE 1.21 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.715 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 103.125 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -182.851 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.851 %
median: 11.692 %
mean: 8.835 %
WRBY: 0.715 %
low: -8.65 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price bias favors additional pressure. Momentum indicators and short-term averages place downside bias without a strong established trend (low ADX), so expect choppy, lower-biased trading rather than a clean directional breakout. Elevated beta and recent movement near the lower Bollinger band suggest outsized intraperiod swings remain possible.

Operationally, gross-margin strength and a sizable cash balance provide support against a deep structural decline, but stretched valuation multiples and muted earnings power imply limited upside from current levels absent a material change in revenue trajectory or margin expansion. Watch for stabilization above the mid-$20 area and for MACD to cross back above its signal line as the clearest technical indication that momentum has shifted; absent that, expect continued range pressure with episodic volatility.

About Warby Parker Inc.

Warby Parker Inc. (NYSE:WRBY) designs and distributes a wide range of eyewear products across the United States and Canada. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in New York, New York, the company offers an array of eyeglasses and sunglasses, including options with light-responsive and blue-light-filtering lenses. Customers can also choose from non-prescription lenses and contact lenses. Warby Parker enhances its product line with various accessories, such as cases, lens kits with anti-fog spray, and pouches. The company provides its products through multiple channels, including retail stores, a user-friendly website, and mobile applications, ensuring a seamless shopping experience. In addition to its eyewear offerings, Warby Parker delivers eye care services, conducting eye exams and vision tests to support customers’ visual health. With its comprehensive product and service portfolio, Warby Parker continues to cater to a diverse customer base seeking fashionable and functional eyewear solutions.



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