Silgan Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SLGN) Sees Technical Momentum Constrained By Overvaluation

Near-term momentum offers limited upside while leverage and negative free cash flow restrict valuation upside. Technicals suggest short-lived buying pressure unless confirmed by stronger trend strength and volume.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 17.88 indicates no established trend; directional indicators deliver competing signals: DI+ at 24.63 and increasing signals buy-side pressure, while DI- at 28.54 (dip & reversal) signals returning downside pressure. Together, directional strength fails to signal a dominant trend, which limits conviction for sustained moves and ties directly to the valuation headwind.

MACD sits at -0.30 with the MACD line above the signal line (-0.39); that crossover constitutes a bullish momentum trigger despite MACD remaining negative. Momentum gains require volume confirmation given the broader technical context.

MRO at -29.43 (dip & reversal) indicates price below the model target and therefore short-term upside potential; the magnitude suggests a meaningful gap toward target levels unless offset by weakening momentum.

RSI at 50.83 with a peak & reversal trend signals recent exhaustion of upside and raises the risk of pullback if momentum indicators fail to extend their gains. RSI behavior connects directly to near-term range control around moving averages and Bollinger bands.

Price sits at $42.10, above the 200-day average ($41.57) and roughly in line with the 12-day EMA ($42.13) while remaining below the 50-day average ($43.70). Bollinger band placement (1x upper ~ $42.66, lower ~ $41.07) places current price inside the upper half of the band but below immediate supertrend resistance at $43.90, implying limited upside before encountering technical resistance. Average volumes (10/50/200-day averages exceed current 552k shares) fail to support a high-confidence breakout, constraining the near-term outlook.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings and operating metrics show operational resilience alongside cash-flow stress. EBIT of $151.0M produces an EBIT margin of 9.19%, effectively in line with the industry peer mean of 9.19%; QoQ margin improved ~14.29% while YoY margin declined ~15.55%. EPS topped estimates modestly at $0.98 versus $0.96, a 2.08% surprise. The company filed quarterly results covering the period ended June 30, 2026, and discussed the quarter in its July 29 release.

Revenue growth measures show modest expansion: trailing revenue growth registers 5.25% while year-over-year revenue growth equals 6.27%; both figures trail the industry peer mean revenue growth (~10.89%), indicating slower top-line momentum relative to peers. Asset turnover at 0.174 remains below the industry peer mean (~0.195), reflecting lower sales generation per dollar of assets and linking directly to the middling returns profile.

Returns and profitability sit below stronger peers. Return on equity equals 3.18% (QoQ improvement present but YoY decline), versus an industry peer mean near 3.46%; return on invested capital at 1.51% falls short of the industry peer mean. Operating margin equals 10.30%, modestly above the peer low but near the peer mean level.

Cash flow and leverage create the primary valuation constraint. Free cash flow stands negative at -$258.5M with a free cash flow yield of -5.69%, materially below the industry peer mean of roughly 2.98%. Operating cash flow registered -$194.3M while net debt reached $4.48B against a market cap of $4.55B, producing a debt-to-EBITDA multiple around 20.6x and an interest coverage near 3.21x—well below the industry peer mean coverage. Those debt and cash-flow characteristics underpin WMDST’s current valuation view.

Market multiples display divergence: trailing P/E near 43.9 sits below the industry peer mean (~51.68), while enterprise multiple (~38.45) roughly aligns with the industry peer mean (~38.85). The analyst price-target mean (~$39.06) lies below the current $42.10 market price, producing an implied mismatch between market level and consensus targets that corresponds with WMDST’s assessment that the stock appears over-valued.

Dividend metrics remain intact but modest relative to cash-flow stress: dividend payout ratio ~29.3% and yield about 0.49%, consistent with the company’s maintained distribution policy noted in filings.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. The over-valuation assessment rests on negative free cash flow, elevated leverage (net debt roughly equal to market cap and debt-to-EBITDA ~20.6x), and analyst targets that sit below the current market price despite some operational margin recovery.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 435.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow -194.28 M
 Capital Expenditures -64.24 M
 Change In Working Capital -379.81 M
 Dividends Paid -22.22 M
 Cash Flow Delta -83.90 M
 End Period Cash Flow 351.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.6 B
 Forward Revenue 586.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.3 B
 Depreciation 83.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 83.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 294.9 M
 EBITDA 234.8 M
 EBIT 151.0 M
 Operating Income 169.2 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 47.1 M
 Net Interest Income -47.12 M
 Income Before Tax 103.9 M
 Tax Provision 29.2 M
 Tax Rate 28.05 %
 Net Income 75.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 75.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.96
 EPS Actual 0.98
 EPS Difference 0.02
 EPS Surprise 2.083 %
 Forward EPS 1.02
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.6 B
 Intangible Assets 3.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -938.29 M
 Total Current Assets 3.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 351.5 M
 Cash 351.5 M
 Net Receivables 1.5 B
 Inventory 1.2 B
 Long-Term Investments 654.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 891.8 M
 Short-Term Debt 1.2 B
 Total Current Liabilities 2.6 B
 Net Debt 4.5 B
 Total Debt 4.8 B
 Total Liabilities 7.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.4 B
 Retained Earnings 3.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 22.51
 Shares Outstanding 105.680 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.55
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.5 B
 Enterprise Value 9.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 38.452
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -6.234 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -7.321 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 43.734
median: 43.734
mean: 38.855
SLGN: 38.452
low: 30.074
 EV/R 5.494
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.035
 Asset To Liability 1.329
 Debt To Capital 0.67
 Debt To Assets 0.503
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.71 %
Debt To Assets YoY -6.218 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA SLGN: 0.503
high: 0.429
median: 0.359
mean: 0.351
low: 0.216
 Debt To Equity 2.032
Debt To Equity QoQ 1.157 %
Debt To Equity YoY -10.641 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA SLGN: 2.032
high: 1.316
median: 1.257
mean: 1.135
low: 0.411
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.911
Price To Book QoQ 0.592 %
Price To Book YoY -20.909 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.802
median: 2.802
mean: 2.292
SLGN: 1.911
low: 1.339
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 43.894
Price To Earnings QoQ -17.909 %
Price To Earnings YoY -18.541 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 87.499
median: 59.073
mean: 51.678
SLGN: 43.894
low: 34.732
 PE/G Ratio 1.712
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.766
Price To Sales QoQ -2.008 %
Price To Sales YoY -20.681 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 4.028
median: 4.028
mean: 3.674
SLGN: 2.766
low: 2.75
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 39.604
Forward PE/G 1.545
Forward P/S 7.765
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.861
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.174
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.118 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2.563 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.206
median: 0.2
mean: 0.195
SLGN: 0.174
low: 0.171
 Receivables Turnover 1.258
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -29.596 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -7.882 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.134
median: 2.134
mean: 2.018
low: 1.603
SLGN: 1.258
 Inventory Turnover 1.142
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.615 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 6.569 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.482
mean: 1.528
median: 1.392
low: 1.208
SLGN: 1.142
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 72.559
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 95.523
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 69.559 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.621 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA SLGN: 95.523
high: 59.343
mean: 10.412
low: -13.11
median: -13.11
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.334
 CapEx To Revenue -0.039
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.767
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 7.2 B
 Invested Capital 7.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets -938.29 M
 Net Working Capital 704.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.136
 Current Ratio 1.272
Current Ratio QoQ 1.077 %
Current Ratio YoY 32.497 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.289
SLGN: 1.272
mean: 1.089
median: 1.069
low: 0.995
 Quick Ratio 0.796
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.123 %
Quick Ratio YoY 42.568 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 0.99
SLGN: 0.796
mean: 0.692
median: 0.665
low: 0.547
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 20.587
 Cost Of Debt 0.676 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.206
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 5.767 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -6.813 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 13.974
mean: 5.94
median: 4.519
low: 4.129
SLGN: 3.206
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.064
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 60.181
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.409
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.293
 Dividend Rate 0.21
 Dividend Yield 0.005
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.986 %
 Revenue Growth 5.253 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -16.738 %
Revenue Growth YoY 6.271 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 12.469 %
median: 10.935 %
mean: 10.887 %
low: 8.65 %
SLGN: 5.253 %
 Earnings Growth 25.641 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 56.176 %
Earnings Growth YoY 10.66 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 46.364 %
SLGN: 25.641 %
mean: 18.747 %
low: 9.574 %
median: 9.574 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 17.945 %
Gross Margin QoQ 5.416 %
Gross Margin YoY -7.652 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 23.387 %
mean: 19.074 %
SLGN: 17.945 %
low: 17.438 %
median: 17.438 %
 EBIT Margin 9.192 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 14.286 %
EBIT Margin YoY -15.554 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 9.96 %
SLGN: 9.192 %
mean: 9.19 %
low: 8.932 %
median: 8.932 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.297 %
Return On Sales QoQ 18.52 %
Return On Sales YoY -10.655 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 10.561 %
SLGN: 10.297 %
mean: 9.639 %
low: 9.232 %
median: 9.232 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -258.52 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -5.687 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -71.581 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 3.758 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.57 %
mean: 2.976 %
median: 2.901 %
low: 1.222 %
SLGN: -5.687 %
 Free Cash Growth -70.69 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -58.936 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 14.745 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: -17.893 %
SLGN: -70.69 %
mean: -129.936 %
median: -149.787 %
low: -155.102 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -3.412
 Cash Flow Margin -10.047 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -2.179
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.801 %
Return On Assets QoQ 18.843 %
Return On Assets YoY -18.182 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 1.377 %
mean: 1.119 %
median: 1.108 %
low: 0.952 %
SLGN: 0.801 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.154 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.032
Return On Equity QoQ 17.231 %
Return On Equity YoY -20.44 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.038
median: 0.038
mean: 0.035
SLGN: 0.032
low: 0.026
 DuPont ROE 3.224 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.507 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 13.994 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -12.026 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 2.192 %
median: 2.109 %
mean: 2.036 %
low: 1.688 %
SLGN: 1.507 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound price action with episodic upward moves triggered by momentum confirmations. Short-term upside receives support from the MACD crossover and negative MRO (both point toward catch-up potential), but RSI’s peak & reversal, increasing DI- signal, low ADX, and light volume increase the likelihood that rallies stall near the $43–$44 technical band and supertrend resistance. Fundamental constraints—negative free cash flow and heavy leverage—place a structural cap on sustained appreciation absent a clear improvement in cash generation or deleveraging news.

Watch for: sustained MACD expansion above the signal line accompanied by rising volume and a rising ADX as the necessary market technical evidence for a confident trend extension; failure to secure that evidence likely keeps price confined to current bands and preserves valuation pressure from cash-flow and leverage metrics.

About Silgan Holdings Inc.

Silgan Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SLGN) manufactures and sells rigid packaging solutions for consumer goods worldwide. The company operates through three primary segments: Dispensing and Specialty Closures, Metal Containers, and Custom Containers. The Dispensing and Specialty Closures segment produces metal and plastic closures and dispensing systems for a variety of products, including food, beverages, healthcare, and personal care items. It also supplies capping/sealing equipment and detection systems. In the Metal Containers segment, Silgan manufactures steel and aluminum containers for food products such as pet food, vegetables, soups, and proteins, as well as general line metal containers for chemicals. The Custom Containers segment designs and produces custom and stock plastic containers for industries including personal care, healthcare, food and beverage, and household chemicals. Additionally, this segment offers thermoformed bowls and trays for food products and various plastic closures and fitments. Silgan markets its products primarily through a direct sales force, distributors, and an online shopping catalog. Founded in 1987, Silgan Holdings is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.



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