Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) Advances On Improving Momentum Despite Overvalued Valuation

Rivian registers nascent upside as technical momentum clears short-term hurdles while fundamentals and WMDST valuation continue to impose restraint.

Recent News

July 2, 2026: Rivian raised its 2026 vehicle delivery forecast, citing strong demand for delivery vans and the R2 model. July 30, 2026: the company sold 86.25 million Class A shares in a follow-on offering to raise roughly $1.3 billion for corporate purposes and Georgia plant funding. August 2026: regulators and media reported an expanded recall related to front turn-signal failures; separate mid-August reports flagged a small set of R2 fast-charging connector incidents prompting owner notifications and engineering investigations.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 10.69 indicates no established trend; DI+ at 26.13 with an increasing trend signals bullish directional pressure while DI- showed a peak-and-reversal, which also supports bullish directional momentum. Together, the readings imply constructive directional bias but limited trend strength—near-term upside depends on follow-through rather than trend dominance.

MACD: MACD stands at -0.04 and sits above the signal line at -0.15, and the MACD trend shows an increase; the cross above the signal line represents a bullish momentum signal and suggests the short-term oscillator momentum favors higher prices until momentum weakens.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 17.0 (positive) indicates price sits above the model target and therefore contains potential for a corrective pull; the MRO trend shows a peak-and-reversal, which signals a bearish pressure on gains and raises the odds of a near-term consolidation against the recent momentum.

RSI: RSI at 50.15 with an increasing trend reads as neutral-to-constructive momentum; the indicator supports the view of limited immediate overbought risk while allowing room for additional upside if buying interest accelerates.

Price vs Moving Averages & Ichimoku: Price closed at $16.33, above the 12-day EMA ($16.15, increasing) and the 20-day average ($15.99), yet sits just below the 50-day average ($16.44) and essentially in line with the 200-day average ($16.30). Ichimoku components place short-term support near $16.20 (Kijun-sen) with the cloud boundary above current price, implying resistance around the mid-$16 to $17 area; short-term thermal momentum shows improvement but the broader moving-average structure still caps runaway upside.

Volatility & Volume Context: 42-day beta of 2.56 and elevated short-term volatility indicate above-market sensitivity; traded volume recently undershot multi-period averages, which reduces conviction behind any single direction until participation increases.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Q2 results for period ending 2026-06-30 show revenue of $1,658,000,000 (YoY revenue growth of 294.77% and QoQ growth of 171.53%), gross profit of $179,000,000 and gross margin of 10.80% (gross margin YoY change -168.29% but QoQ improved 25.29%). Net income remained negative at $-833,000,000 and operating margin at -50.42%. EPS came in at $-0.63 versus an estimate of $-0.78, yielding an EPS surprise of 19.23%.

Liquidity & cash position: Cash totaled $3,592,000,000 with cash and short-term investments of $5,310,000,000; current ratio 2.10 and quick ratio 1.65. Free cash flow remained negative at $-849,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -3.80% and free cash growth YoY down -107.33% despite a QoQ improvement in free cash growth of +248.58%.

Leverage & coverage: Total debt sits at $5,353,000,000 with net debt near $852,000,000; debt-to-equity stands at 1.05. Interest expense totals $68,000,000 while interest income offsets $48,000,000, producing a negative interest coverage ratio consistent with reported operating losses.

  • Profitability: Return on equity -16.31%; return on assets -5.67%; operating and return-on-sales both -50.42%.
  • Valuation multiples: EVR 13.49, P/S 13.47, P/B 4.37, forward P/E negative; WMDST values the stock as over-valued.
  • Working capital & efficiency: Cash conversion cycle ~76 days; asset turnover 0.1129 (below the industry peer mean of 0.19144), while receivables turnover improved QoQ.

Comparing margins to the industry peer mean and median: the EBIT margin of -46.44% trails the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 5.55% and median of 4.99%, indicating material gap versus typical peers. Revenue growth accelerated sharply YoY, but losses and negative free cash flow keep the near-term valuation narrative constrained despite operational scale gains.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow -487.00 M
 Capital Expenditures -362.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -82.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 747.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.7 B
 Forward Revenue 303.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.5 B
 Depreciation 237.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 237.0 M
 Research and Development 466.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 2.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 179.0 M
 EBITDA -533.00 M
 EBIT -770.00 M
 Operating Income -836.00 M
 Interest Income 48.0 M
 Interest Expense 68.0 M
 Net Interest Income -20.00 M
 Income Before Tax -838.00 M
 Tax Provision -1.00 M
 Tax Rate 0.119 %
 Net Income -833.00 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -837.00 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.78
 EPS Actual -0.63
 EPS Difference 0.15
 EPS Surprise 19.231 %
 Forward EPS -0.45
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 15.1 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 5.1 B
 Total Current Assets 7.6 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 5.3 B
 Cash 3.6 B
 Net Receivables 370.0 M
 Inventory 1.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 560.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 889.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 3.6 B
 Net Debt 852.0 M
 Total Debt 5.4 B
 Total Liabilities 10.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 5.1 B
 Retained Earnings -28.20 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.75
 Shares Outstanding 1.366 B
 Revenue Per-Share 1.22
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 22.3 B
 Enterprise Value 22.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple -41.975
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -69.624 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 97.415 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 86.113
median: 86.113
mean: 63.128
low: -20.91
RIVN: -41.975
 EV/R 13.494
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.965
 Asset To Liability 1.512
 Debt To Capital 0.512
 Debt To Assets 0.354
Debt To Assets QoQ -23.473 %
Debt To Assets YoY -12.95 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.655
RIVN: 0.354
mean: 0.134
low: 0.108
median: 0.108
 Debt To Equity 1.048
Debt To Equity QoQ -29.806 %
Debt To Equity YoY 0.419 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 6.485
RIVN: 1.048
mean: 0.357
median: 0.185
low: -3.456
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.373
Price To Book QoQ -4.796 %
Price To Book YoY 67.487 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 22.886
median: 18.194
mean: 16.29
RIVN: 4.373
low: -2.496
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -26.025
Price To Earnings QoQ -10.551 %
Price To Earnings YoY 88.173 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 138.226
median: 138.226
mean: 86.005
low: -2.41
RIVN: -26.025
 PE/G Ratio -0.286
 Price To Sales (P/S) 13.468
Price To Sales QoQ -8.041 %
Price To Sales YoY 10.759 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 55.967
median: 55.967
mean: 49.287
RIVN: 13.468
low: 0.018
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -34.94
Forward PE/G -0.384
Forward P/S 73.637
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 5.889
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.113
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 18.932 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 34.73 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.354
median: 0.193
mean: 0.191
RIVN: 0.113
low: 0.053
 Receivables Turnover 4.657
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 51.253 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 19.024 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.571
median: 7.019
mean: 6.385
RIVN: 4.657
low: 0.762
 Inventory Turnover 0.923
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.744 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 43.531 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.686
mean: 1.674
median: 1.666
RIVN: 0.923
low: 0.584
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 19.593
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 76.028
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -23.666 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -57.123 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 193.127
RIVN: 76.028
mean: 16.529
median: 8.265
low: -10.582
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.415
 CapEx To Revenue -0.218
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.527
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 9.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 9.6 B
 Invested Capital 9.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 5.1 B
 Net Working Capital 4.0 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.467
 Current Ratio 2.104
Current Ratio QoQ 0.158 %
Current Ratio YoY -38.801 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.36
RIVN: 2.104
median: 1.941
mean: 1.858
low: 1.037
 Quick Ratio 1.646
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.284 %
Quick Ratio YoY -39.592 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.695
RIVN: 1.646
median: 1.553
mean: 1.485
low: 0.467
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -10.043
 Cost Of Debt 1.139 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -11.324
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 108.507 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -25.161 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 79.247
mean: 19.502
median: 17.407
RIVN: -11.324
low: -20.62
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.168
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 59.399
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.373 %
 Revenue Growth 20.058 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 171.531 %
Revenue Growth YoY 294.765 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 78.201 %
median: 26.127 %
mean: 23.484 %
RIVN: 20.058 %
low: -21.094 %
 Earnings Growth 90.909 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -645.443 %
Earnings Growth YoY -10.946 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA RIVN: 90.909 %
high: 12.446 %
mean: -18.839 %
median: -19.512 %
low: -36.364 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 10.796 %
Gross Margin QoQ 25.287 %
Gross Margin YoY -168.286 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 52.593 %
mean: 18.03 %
median: 16.826 %
RIVN: 10.796 %
low: -5.839 %
 EBIT Margin -46.441 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 81.687 %
EBIT Margin YoY -42.038 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 31.412 %
mean: 5.552 %
median: 4.994 %
RIVN: -46.441 %
low: -243.244 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -50.422 %
Return On Sales QoQ -20.961 %
Return On Sales YoY -41.023 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.065 %
mean: 2.487 %
median: 1.41 %
RIVN: -50.422 %
low: -258.666 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -849.00 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -3.802 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -28.467 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -70.385 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 45.536 %
median: -0.07 %
mean: -0.11 %
RIVN: -3.802 %
low: -55.896 %
 Free Cash Growth -21.023 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 248.582 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -107.333 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 4.21 %
RIVN: -21.023 %
median: -176.108 %
mean: -184.074 %
low: -348.701 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.019
 Cash Flow Margin -36.61 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.729
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -5.672 %
Return On Assets QoQ 98.391 %
Return On Assets YoY -21.036 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.52 %
mean: 0.858 %
median: 0.762 %
RIVN: -5.672 %
low: -14.833 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -6.684 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.163
Return On Equity QoQ 72.671 %
Return On Equity YoY -11.375 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.978
mean: 0.018
median: 0.013
RIVN: -0.163
low: -1.528
 DuPont ROE -17.52 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -8.053 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 102.744 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 2.56 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.03 %
mean: 1.504 %
median: 1.249 %
RIVN: -8.053 %
low: -26.943 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup favors a period of measured upside provided MACD momentum sustains and DI+ maintains its rise; however, low ADX and a positive MRO near-term correction signal warn that rallies may meet resistance and compress into sideways-to-choppy action. Expect above-market intraday volatility given elevated beta; catalyst risk centers on recall/quality headlines and execution updates tied to R2 ramp and delivery cadence. Monitor volume for conviction—higher participation would validate momentum, while quiet volume increases the probability of range-bound trading and pullbacks toward the mid-$15s if sellers re-emerge.

About Rivian Automotive, Inc.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and related accessories. The company produces the R1T, a two-row, five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row, seven-passenger sport utility vehicle, catering to consumer markets. Rivian provides a range of consumer services, including digital financing and leasing options, telematics-based insurance, and comprehensive vehicle maintenance and repair services. Additionally, the company offers software services and charging solutions to enhance the ownership experience. Rivian operates the Rivian Adventure Network, featuring Direct Current fast chargers, and grants access to the Combined Charging Standard. It also provides FleetOS, a centralized fleet management subscription platform, tailored for efficient fleet operations. In collaboration with Amazon.com, Inc., Rivian develops the Rivian Commercial Van platform, specifically designed for electric delivery vans. The company employs a direct-to-consumer sales model, serving both consumer and commercial markets. Founded in 2009, Rivian Automotive, Inc. is headquartered in Irvine, California, and continues to innovate within the electric vehicle industry.



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